“This includes export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl-related measures, anti-drug cooperation, trade expansion, and US Section 301 fees.”

Takaichi-Trump Trade Talks and Yen Dynamics

The prospect of lower US duties on Chinese shipments could draw Prime Minister Takaichi’s attention. President Trump is reportedly meeting with Japan’s prime minister on Monday, October 27.

Takaichi criticized the US-Japan trade deal inked in August before being elected. While defense spending could be a key topic, the US-China trade deal could provide Takaichi an opportunity to discuss the 15% levy on Japanese goods, affecting businesses. Reports suggesting President Trump is open to further trade talks and lower tariffs on Japan could strengthen demand for the yen.

BoJ board members have raised concerns over the impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy and have called for delays to rate hikes to assess the effect of duties on the broader economy.

Lower tariffs could lift demand for Japanese goods and raise expectations for a BoJ rate hike. For context, the S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.5 in September to 48.3 in October.

US Durable Goods Orders, Capitol Hill, and the USD/JPY Outlook

Across the Pacific, durable goods orders will be in focus later on Monday. Economists forecast durable goods orders to rise 0.3% month-on-month in September after August’s 2.9% surge.

A higher reading could signal resilient business demand. Sustained demand may boost hiring and wages, potentially fueling inflation. A higher inflation outlook could support a less dovish Fed rate path. A less dovish Fed policy stance could lift demand for the US dollar and send USD/JPY toward 155.

On the other hand, an unexpected drop in orders could lead to job cuts and slower wage growth. Job cuts and softer wage growth may curb consumer spending and dampen inflationary pressures. A softer inflation outlook would support a more dovish Fed rate path, potentially pushing USD/JPY toward 150.

While US data will influence demand for the US dollar, traders should also closely monitor developments on Capitol Hill. A prolonged US government shutdown could reinforce expectations of a more dovish Fed policy outlook. However, a Senate vote passing a stopgap funding bill could expedite the release of delayed labor market reports, potentially fueling uncertainty about a Fed rate cut in December.

USD/JPY Scenarios: Trade Headlines and Central Bank Divergence

• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: hawkish BoJ rhetoric, weak US data, or US-Japan tariff talks could push USD/JPY toward 150.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: dovish BoJ commentary, strong US data, or US-Japan tariff uncertainties could send USD/JPY toward 155.

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Implied Volatility Lowes in 11 Months

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) held firm on Friday, finding support near 1.1600 before edging to around 1.1640 as softer-than-expected US inflation data curbed dollar demand.

The pair settled close to 1.1620 into the weekend, with stronger Euro-Zone PMI figures offering additional support.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Softer US CPI Reinforces Near-Term Range

The latest US consumer prices data came in slightly below expectations, reinforcing market conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at next week’s meeting. The headline CPI rose 0.3% in September, lifting the annual rate to 3.0% from 2.9%, just under the 3.1% consensus forecast. Core CPI also undershot expectations, increasing 0.2% on the month and easing to 3.0% year-on-year.

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, commented; “The headline was a bit softer than expected. The dollar was sold on the news, even though markets were already fully confident of Fed cuts in both October and December.”

He added; “Because those cuts are already priced in, this kneejerk dollar weakness may not be sustained.”

ING also pointed to near-term uncertainty; “Markets are fully pricing in 50bp of easing by year-end, and without any jobs data at hand, it will be hard to speculate much beyond the December meeting.”

Meanwhile, Euro-Zone PMI data came in stronger than expected, offering reassurance on growth momentum and helping the euro to consolidate gains.

UoB noted the technical backdrop remains stable: “The price movements still appear to be part of a range-trading phase.”

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur observed that EUR/USD implied volatility has fallen to its lowest level in 11 months, cautioning that “given the current geopolitical environment, I would not bet too much on this calm persisting.”

Trade headlines added a layer of uncertainty. US President Trump confirmed his meeting with Chinese President Xi is set for next week, even as talks with Canada were abruptly suspended.

Ben Bennett, Head of Investment Strategy for Asia at L&G Asset Management, commented; “Expectations are quite high for the Trump–Xi meeting, with the upside risk of a significant de-escalation following the face-to-face. Investors are getting used to the pattern of threats followed by compromise.”

For readers planning Euro or Dollar purchases, recent swings highlight how swiftly sentiment can shift on key data and trade headlines. Get in touch to discuss your euro currency purchase requirements.

The euro’s resilience above 1.16 underscores that while Fed cuts are largely priced in, volatility could rise again as traders weigh the upcoming policy statement and any fresh US-China developments.

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This week, the Bank of Japan will take center stage, with economists widely expecting policymakers to keep interest rates at 0.5%. Forward guidance will be pivotal, given recent economic data and Takaichi’s election win. Although the BoJ interest rate decision, forward guidance, and GDP and inflation forecasts will influence USD/JPY trends, traders should closely monitor upcoming economic data releases.

Japanese Consumer Confidence in Focus

On Wednesday, October 29, consumer confidence figures will provide insights into household spending trends. Economists forecast the Consumer Confidence Index to rise from 35.3 in September to 35.6 in October.

A higher-than-expected reading could signal a pickup in consumer spending, fueling demand-driven inflation. Uptrends in household spending and inflation would support a more hawkish BoJ rate path, lifting demand for the yen. On the other hand, a lower print may suggest a softer inflation outlook, weighing on the yen.

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Governor Ueda, and Forecasts in the Spotlight

While consumer confidence is a key stat, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on Thursday, October 30, will be the main event. GDP and inflation forecasts and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference will also be key drivers for the week.

Barring a surprise rate hike, traders should consider the BoJ’s forecasts and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference. Upward revisions to GDP and inflation could fuel speculation about a December or January hike, lifting the yen. Conversely, weaker forecasts could sink bets of monetary policy tightening and weigh on the yen.

However, Governor Ueda will have the final say. Views on Prime Minister Takaichi’s monetary policy stance and plans for fiscal stimulus would likely be crucial near-term USD/JPY trends.

Platinum price attempted to settle above $1605.00 level, to notice recording some gains by hitting $1665.00 level, providing weak sideways trading by its stability near $1620.00.

Confirming that holding above $1605.00 level is important, which forms an important extra support to reinforce the chances of gathering the positive momentum, then attack the next barrier near $1695.00, while breaking the current support will force the price to provide new corrective trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $1565.00 and $1525.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1600.00 and $1695.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar FX Forecast: GBP “to Hold Above 1.32-1.3250”

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) firmed on Friday as GBP investors digested stronger-than-expected UK business activity figures ahead of the key US inflation report.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Recovers from 1-Week Lows

The Pound Sterling found support close to 1.3300 on Wednesday and bounced to around 1.3350 without making much headway.

UK equities were able to make further headway with the FTSE 100 index close to record highs in London trading.

According to UoB; “Downward momentum has eased with the rebound. Today, we expect GBP to trade sideways, most likely within a range of 1.3330/1.3380.”

HSBC commented; “The autumn budget on 26 November has the potential to significantly impact the economic and inflation outlook. For now, we expect GBP-USD to hold above key support levels at 1.32-1.3250.”

The dollar overall has held a firm tone in global markets with the yen under further pressure, although European currencies have shown some resilience.

There has been further very volatile trading in precious metals with gold attempting to recover from very sharp losses, but well below recent record highs.

HSBC commented; “the correction in the gold market may hint that the USD-debasement theme has come a little exhausted.”

The US official data releases have been severely curtained by the government shutdown with markets desperate for further information on the economy.

On Friday, the latest US consumer prices data will be released as well as the PMI business confidence data on both sides of the Atlantic.

ING commented on inflation data; “Based on yesterday’s price action, we reiterate our view that the dollar’s rebound is getting tired and probably requires some hawkish repricing to keep going. As discussed over the week, we don’t think tomorrow’s US CPI will offer that opportunity as we expect a consensus 0.3% MoM core print. But surely with 50bp of easing fully priced in by year-end, any hot print could offer good support to the dollar.”

Within the PMI data, evidence of jobs will be watched particularly closely.

Following Wednesday’s UK inflation data, there has been increased speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) could decide to cut interest rates again this year.

MUFG expects BoE caution will prevail; “We also suspect that policymakers will want to have some visibility on the Budget measures after this year’s increase in employer NICs contributed to the current hump in inflation.”

It did note the importance of UK data releases; “That said, the next BoE meeting would certainly become more live if there is a dire PMI and/or retail sales print on Friday, for example. That is conceivable if speculation around the upcoming Budget weighs on sentiment and spending.”

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– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Rate Calm Before CPI, Sanctions Stir Oil Markets

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) held close to 1.1600 on Thursday as calm prevailed ahead of crucial US data. A spike in oil prices following new sanctions on Russian energy firms limited euro gains.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Held Near 1.1600

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate found support just above 1.1580 on Thursday and traded just above 1.1600 as tight ranges prevailed. US economic uncertainty hampered the dollar with key data releases due on Friday while higher oil prices tended to undermine the Euro.

Currency ranges were relatively narrow, but there was further volatility in energy and metals. Rabobank warns that further volatility is inevitable amid a new world order; “there is a very high probability that the whirlwind of crazy headlines so far in 2025 have just been a warm-up for what is yet to come. After all, the Trump admin is still laying the foundations for a new US and global economy.”

UoB commented; “The rebound from oversold conditions suggests that instead of weakening, EUR is more likely to range-trade today, expected to be between 1.1585 and 1.1625.”

ING is not convinced that ranges will break in the near term; “EUR/USD is hovering around 1.160, a level that, in our view, can work as an anchor again today and possibly for a few more days should US CPI fail to add much to the dollar narrative.”

ING maintains a year-end EUR/USD target of 1.20.

Energy prices will be important with Brent jumping close to 5% on Thursday and posting a 2-week high as the US targeted Russian oil companies.

Danske Bank commented; “In the Ukraine war, the US hit Russia with sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, two of Russia’s largest oil companies.”

There were also reports that China would suspend Russian seaborne oil purchases.

Danske added; “Oil prices rose immediately following the announcement. This move is adding fuel to the fire and comes just after the EU approving the 19th package of sanctions, which include a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports.”

The US data releases will be a key element late in the week, especially given that the government shutdown has prevented the release of most official data.

The latest inflation data, as well as the PMI business confidence data will be released on Friday.

Within the PMI data, the headline figures as well as evidence of prices and jobs will be scrutinised closely.

Markets remain extremely confident that the Fed will cut rates this month with over a 90% chance of a further move in December.

According to Danske; “With two Fed cuts already fully priced – leaving limited room for further dovish repricing – we think the balance of risks remains tilted toward a tactically stronger USD.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

Platinum price attempted to settle above $1605.00 level, to notice recording some gains by hitting $1665.00 level, providing weak sideways trading by its stability near $1620.00.

Confirming that holding above $1605.00 level is important, which forms an important extra support to reinforce the chances of gathering the positive momentum, then attack the next barrier near $1695.00, while breaking the current support will force the price to provide new corrective trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $1565.00 and $1525.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1600.00 and $1695.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

“I believe that now is a prime opportunity to raise the policy interest rate. The once deeply entrenched norm has waned in Japan, that the price stability target has been almost achieved.”

Notably, the BoJ must weigh the benefits of a weaker yen boosting exports and the negative effects of higher import costs on households.

On Wednesday, October 22, former BoJ board member Eiji Maeda hinted at a December or January rate hike, stating:

“Moving too slowly in policy normalization would hurt people’s livelihoods by weakening the yen and accelerating inflation.”

PMI Data and Economic Momentum

As the dust settles from the inflation report, traders will now turn their attention to flash private sector PMI numbers.

The market focus will likely be on the Services PMI, given that the sector contributes over 70% to Japan’s GDP. Economists forecast the S&P Global Services PMI to drop from 53.3 in September to 53.0 in October.

A sharper drop in the headline PMI could signal a loss of economic momentum, potentially tempering bets on a BoJ rate hike. A more dovish BoJ policy stance may weigh on the Japanese yen. Conversely, a higher PMI reading could boost expectations of a BoJ rate hike.

However, traders should also consider input and output prices and the employment sub-components. Softer wage growth, weaker output prices, and job cuts would support a delay to monetary policy tightening. On the other hand, higher wages, stronger output prices, and rising jobs would suggest a more hawkish rate path.

US Services PMI, Consumer Sentiment, and the USD/JPY Outlook

Across the Pacific, US S&P Global Services PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index numbers will fill an economic data void as the US government shutdown enters day 24.

Economists forecast the Services PMI to fall from 54.2 in September to 53.5 in October.

A sharper drop toward the 50 neutral level would signal a marked loss of economic momentum, given that services contribute around 80% to US GDP. Additionally, traders should consider the employment and prices sub-components. Lower prices, job cuts, and slower services sector activity would support a more dovish Fed rate path, pushing USD/JPY toward 150.

Conversely, a pickup in services sector activity, higher prices, and rising employment could temper bets on multiple Fed rate cuts. A less dovish Fed rate path may send USD/JPY toward the August high of 153.274.

While the services sector data will be key, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index could also move the dial. According to preliminary data, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slipped from 55.1 in September to 55.0 in October.

A downward revision could signal a pullback in consumer spending, dampening demand-driven inflation. A softer inflation outlook would support multiple Fed rate cuts and a USD/JPY fall toward 150. On the other hand, a higher reading could challenge bets on multiple Fed rate cuts, sending the pair toward 153.274. While the consumer sentiment figures will draw interest, the Services PMI will have more impact on the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY Scenarios: Services PMI Data, BoJ Uncertainty, and Dovish Fed Bets

Market scenarios for USD/JPY will hinge on central bank rhetoric and trade headlines.

• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: hawkish BoJ commentary, stronger PMI data, or escalating US-China trade tensions could push USD/JPY toward 150.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: dovish BoJ commentary, weaker PMI data, or easing US-China trade tensions could send USD/JPY toward 153.274.

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Sterling Holds Near 1.33 on Safe-Haven Demand

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was little changed on Thursday, as renewed US-China trade tensions lifted demand for the safe-haven Dollar while dovish Bank of England (BoE) expectations weighed on Sterling.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at 1.3329, down 0.15% on the day.

The US Dollar (USD) held firm throughout Thursday’s European session, finding support as risk sentiment soured amid reports of renewed trade strains between Washington and Beijing.

According to sources, the Trump administration is weighing new restrictions on software and technology exports to China — a move that reignited investor caution and encouraged a shift into safer assets.

Despite a quiet US data calendar, the ‘Greenback’ advanced against risk-sensitive currencies, underpinned by the day’s risk-off tone and speculation that the Federal Reserve may proceed cautiously with future rate cuts.

The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, struggled to regain momentum after Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected inflation data continued to drag on sentiment.

The softer September CPI reading has led investors to bring forward expectations for BoE rate cuts, with some now predicting a potential move as early as December.

As a result, Sterling traded in a narrow range on Thursday, with market participants largely unwilling to rebuild long GBP positions ahead of key UK data due on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast: Retail Sales and Inflation Data to Drive Direction

Friday brings a busy data slate for both sides of the pair that could inject fresh volatility into GBP/USD.

In the UK, retail sales for September are forecast to fall by -0.2%, pointing to subdued household spending and adding to evidence of a cooling economy.

However, a modest uptick in the UK’s preliminary services PMI could provide partial relief, signalling that the broader economy retains some resilience despite weakening demand.

Across the Atlantic, attention turns to the latest US inflation figures, with headline CPI expected to rise from 2.9% to 3.1%, while core inflation is seen holding steady.

Stronger-than-forecast readings could bolster the Dollar by tempering expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, while a softer outcome may trigger renewed USD selling pressure into the weekend.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts