On the chart, we have the day that is circled, representing the FOMC interest rate decision and press conference. The US dollar has done pretty much nothing but strengthen since then, although again, the British pound has put up a bigger fight against it than many others.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
The euro is slightly stronger against the British pound during the trading session on Thursday, but at this point in time, we continue to move sideways, right around the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA sits in the middle of a larger consolidation area, with the 0.86 level on the bottom and the 0.8750 level on the top representing your support and resistance areas. Ultimately, this shows the neutrality between these two currencies as of late.
So that’s why they’re moving in tandem against the US dollar, or at least it helps you determine that one is not particularly stronger than the other. Ultimately, though, when I look at this chart, once we break out of this range, we should have a fairly decent move on our hands. Range-bound traders right now continue to bounce around about a 40 pip range.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1570 – 1.1500 – 1.1430.
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1660 – 1.1740 – 1.1810.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy the EURUSD from the support level of 1.1520, target 1.1800, and stop 1.1460.
Sell the EURUSD from the resistance level of 1.1730, target 1.1600, and stop 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
As anticipated, the bearish bias for EUR/USD has strengthened, moving towards and below the 1.1600 support level. During yesterday’s trading session, the most famous currency pair in the Forex market saw losses extend to the 1.1576 support level, near its lowest point in a week, before stabilizing around the 1.1610 level at the time of writing this analysis. Overall, the EUR/USD bias may remain bearish as traders now look to US inflation data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will implement another interest rate cut next week.
The consolidation of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around a reading of 43, below the neutral line, confirms the bearish shift for the EUR/USD pair across reliable trading platforms. Despite the losses, the pair still has more room for stronger declines before reaching oversold territory. This could happen if the bears succeed in pushing towards the support levels of 1.1540, 1.1470, and 1.1400, respectively.
As we mentioned before, the EUR/USD pair’s upward trend, based on the daily chart, will continue to be contingent on a move towards the 1.1800 resistance level again.
Trading Tips:
Wait for the reaction to the US inflation figures to anticipate the most appropriate EUR/USD trades, whether to buy or sell.
EUR/USD Forecasts for the Coming Days
According to Forex market trading, the EUR/USD exchange rate failed to breach the 1.1700 area at the start of this week’s trading and quickly inclined to move towards and below the 1.1600 support as the US Dollar achieved net gains in currency markets. Although the 10-year US Treasury yield remained below 4.00%, the US Dollar still managed to post net gains while the Yen recorded sharp losses.
Regarding the future of currency prices, UoB Bank does not expect a breakout; while a calmer fundamental tone suggests a potential drop in the Euro price today, any decline is likely to be part of a lower range between 1.1625 and 1.1660. However, according to ING Bank, there is room for further short-term decline; “EUR/USD remains almost entirely driven by US credit/equity sentiment. Accordingly, further stability could lead to EUR/USD trading reaching the 1.160 support. Levels below that will be difficult to justify unless Friday’s US CPI comes in higher than expected.”
Overall, US interest rate expectations will be a key market influencer.
At this stage, traders are pricing in a near-100% chance of a US rate cut at next week’s meeting, and the Federal Reserve has not expressed any objection. In this regard, Rabobank commented, “The FOMC remains likely to make another cut in October, even if the committee’s vision is limited. In the absence of convincing evidence to go beyond October or to make a larger cut in October, the FOMC is operating automatically.”
Generally, financial markets also estimate a probability exceeding 95% for an additional 25 basis point US interest rate cut in December. Before that, with the government shutdown, US markets continue to operate with a scarcity of data, which increases the risk of misjudging subsequent meetings.
The British Pound is has reverted to Wednesday’s pullback and trades at the upper range of the 203.00s, as news that the new Japanese government should be preparing a large stimulus program is hammering the Yen on Thursday.
Reuters has reported, citing a government document, that Prime Minister Takaichi’s cabinet would be planning a USD 90 billion stimulus package to support households against the impact of increasing prices. This stimulus would come less than a year after a similar one introduced in 2024 and is expected to add pressure on the already strained public finances.
Technical analysis: Testing resistance at the 203.75 area
The technical picture shows the bulls in control and trying to confirm above the resistance area between the top of an ascending wedge pattern and the October 10 high, at the 203.75 area. The 4-hour RSI remains well above the 50 level, and the MACD is about to perform a bullish cross, which reinforces the positive outlook.
A successful break of that resistance area would shift the focus to the October 9 high, at 204.85, ahead of the year-to-date high, at 205.33.
To the downside, trendline support is at the 202.80 area, ahead of the October 21 and 22 lows, in the area of 201.90. Further down, the key 202.790 support (October 17 low) emerges as the next plausible target.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.17%
0.12%
0.52%
-0.01%
-0.26%
-0.07%
0.28%
EUR
-0.17%
-0.05%
0.32%
-0.17%
-0.42%
-0.24%
0.12%
GBP
-0.12%
0.05%
0.37%
-0.11%
-0.37%
-0.19%
0.17%
JPY
-0.52%
-0.32%
-0.37%
-0.51%
-0.74%
-0.58%
-0.21%
CAD
0.00%
0.17%
0.11%
0.51%
-0.24%
-0.06%
0.29%
AUD
0.26%
0.42%
0.37%
0.74%
0.24%
0.18%
0.54%
NZD
0.07%
0.24%
0.19%
0.58%
0.06%
-0.18%
0.36%
CHF
-0.28%
-0.12%
-0.17%
0.21%
-0.29%
-0.54%
-0.36%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The euro dropped initially during the trading session on Wednesday, struggling to maintain its strength against the Japanese yen.
However, we have turned around to show signs of life, and the way that the market has turned around to show signs of strength suggests that the overall uptrend is likely to continue to be the way forward.
It’s also worth noting that the ¥175.50 level is an area that has been important previously.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this market is obviously very bullish overall, as we had gapped to the upside after the Japanese election. With that being said, the market has pulled back to test the top of the gap, and now it looks like we are trying to turn things around and start to look like we are going to go to the ¥178 level. The ¥178 level is an area that offered resistance previously, so I think you have a situation where we are going to continue to see a lot of noise overall, and ultimately, I think this volatility probably has people looking at this through the prism of a “buy on the dips” market.
It’s not necessarily that like the euro itself, it’s just that the Japanese yen has so many issues with it at the moment that it makes sense that this pair will move right along with the other JPY-denominated markets. Ultimately, I do think we are higher, not only in this pair, but all of the other JPY-denominated pairs. All things being equal, I also would watch the 50 Day EMA near the ¥174 level, which is rising and offering itself as a bit of an uptrend line. Typically, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I also think all things being equal, the Japanese yen weakness will be the main driver here, although there is a bit of a positive swap in this pair if you are long.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
GBP/USD struggles to stage a rebound and trades in a narrow channel at around 1.3350 after closing the previous four trading days in negative territory. As investors await the key September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States, which will be published on Friday, the technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact.
On Wednesday, Pound Sterling came under bearish pressure after the data from the UK showed that the annual inflation, as measured by the change in the CPI, held steady at 3.8% in September. This print came in below the market expectation of 4%. Read more…
GBP/USD Elliott Wave: Another leg down
Back on September 19, two-days after a medium term top, we forecasted a decline in GBP/USD reaching to 1.31 and possibly 1.28. Cable has progressed lower and the Elliott wave pattern appears to be incomplete to the downside.
GBP/USD carved a wave ((x)) high on September 17 at 1.3726. The decline since September 17 fits best as wave ((y)). We know from our Elliott wave studies that this y-wave is likely to take shape as an (a)-(b)-(c) zigzag pattern. Read more…
GBP/USD live forex trade [Video]
In this forex trading video we cover the entry,exit reasons and management for our forex trade today on the GBP/USD and how you can trade the forex structure on daily, four, hourly, and 15 minute charts and how you can target the next support/resistance. In the last few videos we covered the steps to find and trade structure. In this video you will learn how we traded the GBP/USD structure today using the trading charts and price action.
The U.S. dollar remains steady against the yen on Wednesday, holding above ¥150 support. Analysts expect continued upside toward ¥153–¥155, citing strong rate differentials and Bank of Japan policy, with dips viewed as long-term buying opportunities.
The U.S. dollar has been a little bit noisy during the trading session here on Wednesday, but really not a lot has changed if you look at it through that prism.
All things being equal, I think you’ve got a situation where traders are looking at this through the prism of a market that does pay you to hang on to the trade to the upside.
The ¥150 level has shown itself to be important multiple times, with the ¥150 level being resistance previously and then offering support when we fell on Friday to turn around and form a hammer. All things being equal, if the market were to break above the ¥152 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the ¥153.25 level.
Interest Rate Differential and Swap Pays
Over the longer term, I do anticipate that the ¥155 level will be targeted, possibly even higher than that. The 50-day EMA currently sits right around the ¥149 level and is rising, and should end up being a nice buying opportunity. Ultimately, this is a market where I think the interest rate differential continues to pay.
Therefore, you have to look at this as a market that is trying to go much higher over the longer term. Eventually, I think each dip gets bought into, and with the Bank of Japan in a situation where they are probably going to have to stay pretty loose, I think you’ve got a situation where we just cannot go in any other direction. For what it’s worth, the U.S. dollar is strengthening against most currencies, so I like this as a buy-on-the-dip scenario.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Copper price confirmed its surrender in its current period trading to the dominance of the sideways bias, affected by the stability of the barrier near $5.0600, which forces it to delay the attempts of resuming the main bullish attack, to notice its fluctuation near $4.9500 level.
Note that the stochastic contradiction with the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels and attempting to providing negative momentum that might force the price to form some corrective trading, to target the extra support at $4.7500, by breaking this support might force it to suffer extra losses by reaching $4.5800 and $4.4100.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.7500 and $5.0600
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
Copper price confirmed its surrender in its current period trading to the dominance of the sideways bias, affected by the stability of the barrier near $5.0600, which forces it to delay the attempts of resuming the main bullish attack, to notice its fluctuation near $4.9500 level.
Note that the stochastic contradiction with the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels and attempting to providing negative momentum that might force the price to form some corrective trading, to target the extra support at $4.7500, by breaking this support might force it to suffer extra losses by reaching $4.5800 and $4.4100.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.7500 and $5.0600
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has continued to lose ground, retreating to 1-week lows just below 1.1580 amid a solid dollar tone and a further sell-off in gold.
According to ING; “The dollar has remained bid as US credit market concerns continue to ease, and the large drop in precious metals potentially offers extra support. More USD gains from here should be harder to sustain though.”
Wall Street futures were slightly stronger on the day and, according to Danske Bank; “The cross remains largely driven by US credit and equity sentiment.”
UoB sees scope for a near-term trough; “EUR could test 1.1580, but a continued decline below this level is unlikely. The major support at 1.1540 is also unlikely to come into view for now. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.1620 and 1.1640.”
Danske Bank has a 12-month EUR/USD forecast of 1.22.
Geo-political developments had a limited negative impact on the Euro following reports that the potential meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin had been postponed which dampened any talk of a potential Ukraine ceasefire.
Global trade developments will also be important amid underlying tensions over rare-earth minerals.
Save on Your EUR/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
According to ING, US-China trade developments will need to be watched closely. President Trump stated on Tuesday that his meeting with Chinese President Xi may not take place.
ING commented; “For now, this is being seen as simple brinkmanship, but China has struck a sourer tone around these negotiations, and markets may be erring on the side of complacency. No meeting doesn’t equal higher tariffs, but it should be enough to weigh on risk sentiment and the dollar.”
US political developments will also be under scrutiny.
Danske Bank commented; “The government shutdown is now on the cusp of becoming the second-longest on record as it enters its fourth week, and prediction markets increasingly see it extending into November. The next key catalyst for the pair will be Friday’s CPI release, where we see upside risks that could lend the USD additional near-term support.”
Markets are continuing to price in over a 95% chance of a Fed rate cut next week with over a 90% chance of another cut in December.
The latest US consumer prices data is due on Friday with consensus forecasts that core prices will increase 0.3% for September.
Commerzbank commented; “the data is unlikely to be a game changer for next week’s Fed meeting, as the majority of Fed members assume that any tariff effect on inflation will be temporary anyway.”
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slipped on Wednesday after a softer-than-expected UK inflation print fuelled speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) could begin cutting interest rates before the end of the year.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3420, down roughly 0.4% from Wednesday’s opening levels.
The Pound (GBP) came under sustained selling pressure during the European session after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that inflation in the UK cooled more than expected in September.
Headline CPI held steady at 3.8%, missing forecasts for a rise to 4%, while core inflation eased from 3.6% to 3.5%, instead of the anticipated uptick to 3.7%.
The weaker data suggested that inflationary pressures in the UK economy are fading faster than the BoE had anticipated, particularly in key areas such as food prices, which fell on the month.
According to ING, the data delivered a dovish signal for policymakers:
“The September UK inflation reading released this morning is sending a dovish signal to the Bank of England and weighing on the pound. Headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.8% (consensus 4.0%), while core slowed down from 4.6% to 3.5% and services CPI stabilised at 4.75% versus expectations of 4.8% and 0.3pp below the BoE’s latest forecast.”
Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
The bank added that the main surprise came from food prices — a major concern for the BoE of late — which are now around 0.5 percentage points below the Bank’s August forecasts.
This softer inflation outlook prompted traders to ramp up bets on a potential December rate cut, leaving the Pound on the defensive throughout the day.
The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, held steady in relatively thin trading conditions amid a quiet domestic calendar.
Easing trade tensions between the US and China provided some modest support for the ‘Greenback’, after President Donald Trump described progress on trade negotiations as “fantastic” and signalled plans to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week.
The comments helped stabilise risk sentiment, though they failed to trigger any sustained directional move in USD exchange rates.
GBP/USD Forecast: UK Business Confidence to Drive Sterling?
Looking ahead, movement in the Pound US Dollar exchange rate on Thursday may hinge on the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) business optimism index.
Economists expect sentiment among UK firms to have softened in the final quarter of the year amid concerns about the economic outlook and tightening fiscal conditions ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget.
A weaker-than-expected print could see the Pound remain under pressure, while any upside surprise might help Sterling stabilise after its mid-week losses.
In the US, the government shutdown continues to suppress key data releases, meaning market sentiment will likely drive Dollar direction.
If risk appetite fades, USD could benefit from safe-haven demand, whereas a more upbeat tone across global markets may see the ‘Greenback’ give back some recent gains.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
![Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP remains fragile [Video]](https://www.fxstreet.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Feditorial.fxsstatic.com%2Fmiscelaneous%2Fgbpusd2-1761217762730-1761217762731.png&w=1536&q=95 "Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP remains fragile [Video]")
