Created on October 21, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Weak upward correction.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1600 – 1.1550 – 1.1480.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1700 – 1.1780 – 1.1850.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy the EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1560, target 1.1800, and stop 1.1480.
• Sell the EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730, target 1.1600, and stop 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

According to recent trading, the EUR/USD pair has broken through a key resistance area at the key psychological support level of 1.1600, indicating that the uptrend may be gaining momentum. However, the price appears to be retreating to this broken resistance level, which has now become support, potentially attracting more buyers willing to join the rally. According to reliable trading platforms, the current price zone corresponds to the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.1637 and 1.16157, respectively, extending from the previous swing low at 1.1545 to the swing high at 1.1728. These technical areas may be sufficient to control losses and trigger a rebound to or above the previous highs.

Consequently, if the broken resistance zone and the Fibonacci levels hold as a base, the EUR/USD pair may resume its ascent and could target the psychological upward level of 1.18000 later. On the other hand, a break below these support areas could indicate a weakening of the upward momentum, leading to a deeper correction toward the swing low.

Therefore, if the broken resistance area and Fibonacci levels hold as a bottom, the EUR/USD pair may resume its upward trend, potentially targeting the psychologically significant 1.18000 level later. Conversely, a break below these support areas could indicate weakening upward momentum, leading to a deeper correction towards the swing low. Meanwhile, the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) is below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the short-term timeframe, suggesting that the strongest trend was previously downward. However, the price has broken both SMAs, indicating a potential shift in momentum. The 200-period simple moving average appears to be stabilizing, suggesting that upward pressure may be increasing.

The stochastic indicator is also rising from the oversold zone, reflecting a return of buying interest. The oscillator has plenty of room to rise before reaching the overbought zone, so buyers may take control for a longer period, bringing the EUR/USD pair back to the swing high or achieving new highs above 1.17288. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also trending upward from the mid-range, confirming the increasing upward momentum. As long as the oscillator maintains its upward trend, the price may continue to follow the same trend.

Trading Tips:

The bullish shift in EUR/USD is at its beginning. Therefore, the currency pair may be influenced by upcoming economic data and central bank commentary as traders assess monetary policy expectations for both regions, while the US government shutdown may further weigh on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD Trading Awaits US Inflation Figures

According to Forex trading, the euro appears to be better supported at this stage; it just needs something to spark a continued recovery. This spark could come from the release of US inflation data, scheduled for the end of the week. The US dollar is likely to decline if US inflation meets or falls below expectations, which would push the EUR/USD exchange rate to extend its recent recovery to 1.1750.

In general, Markets expect US CPI inflation to reach 3.1% in September, up from 2.9% in August, while core inflation is expected to reach 3.1%. Any reading above expectations will naturally strengthen the dollar, as investors will have no choice but to lower their expectations for future interest rate cuts, a development typically considered supportive of the US dollar. Before the US inflation data is released, the euro will be subject to the Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey, which will provide insight into the region’s economic performance in October. A strong set of PMIs will support the euro against the dollar, as they will support the European Central Bank’s stance on maintaining interest rates at their current level.

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Created on October 21, 2025

• The British pound faces consolidation against the Japanese yen near ¥202 after volatile sessions.
• Support lies around ¥200 and resistance at ¥204–¥205, with the broader trend remaining bullish and positive carry favoring long positions.

The British pound initially rallied during the trading session on Monday against the Japanese yen. As we continue to see a lot of noisy trading over the last four sessions, we have seen a hammer, an inverted hammer, a hammer, and then another inverted hammer. With that being said, it looks very much like a market that is stuck at the ¥202 level. Even if we break down from here, I think there’s a lot of support near the ¥200 level, which also has the 50-day EMA coming into the picture.

The Importance of the 50-day EMA

The 50-day EMA is a famous trend-following type of indicator that I think will attract a lot of attention. And the fact that it’s right there at that ¥200 level, of course, has even more people paying attention to it. If we can break above the ¥204 level, then it opens up the possibility of the ¥205 level rather quickly.

Overall, we are in a positive trend, with the British pound offering a positive swap against the Japanese yen. And when you look around the forex world at the moment, all of the yen-related pairs look the same. They all gapped higher, pulled back a bit, and now they look as if they are trying to at least grind to the upside.

That being said, this is a very noisy couple of sessions, so I don’t think we’re in the all clear to get overly bullish yet. But you get the payment at the end of every day via swap to at least make this pair work out over the longer term, assuming that the trend continues. I see nothing on this chart that changes that trend anytime soon.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Despite the weakness of the EURJPY pair last trading, its stability within the bullish channel’s levels and the continuation of forming extra support at 175.25 level supports our bullish suggestion in the near trading, to keep waiting for targeting 177.05 level reaching the top at 177.85.

Note that reaching below the current support and providing negative close will force it to activate the bearish corrective track, reaching 174.15 initially, and breaking this level will force it to decline towards 173.40, approaching the support of the main bullish channel.

The expected trading range for today is between 175.25 and 177.05

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro-Dollar Forecast: Huge Week for the Dollar, Can EUR/USD Break Higher?

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) was unable to hold above 1.1700 on Friday and traded around 1.1660 on Monday with some support near 1.1650.

ING noted French concerns but added; “this week the focus should stay on the US, and a further souring of credit sentiment could send EUR/USD on a path to 1.180.

There will be important data releases late in the week with the PMI business confidence releases and the US consumer prices report.

The US banking sector, government shutdown and political rhetoric will all be potentially market-moving events.

There has been some relief surrounding the US banking sector with equity markets making gains.

Danske Bank noted that earnings releases from the major UK banks have been solid. It added; “Those earnings helped stabilize sentiment and provided some support to the sector overall, even as worries linger around smaller regional lenders.”

ING remained cautious; “Indications that lending issues don’t extend beyond Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance could offer some further relief to the dollar, but it might not be enough to fully price out concerns about the underlying health of the credit market and have the greenback reclaim all losses.

It added; “As Jamie Dimon warned, there may be more ‘cockroaches’ (i.e. distressed lenders) out there after two US regional banks reported credit issues last week. Markets will be looking very closely for evidence of that, and the dollar continues to face substantial downside risks.”

At this stage, markets are pricing in close to 100% chance of rates being cut next week with over a 95% chance that the central bank will cut rates again at the December meeting.

The Fed is now in a blackout period ahead of the meeting and there should be no official comments.

Any unofficial media briefings will be watched closely if there are sharp moves in equity markets.

US-China trade stresses will continue to be a key element. Rhetoric from President Trump was slightly more conciliatory over the weekend, increasing hopes that pressure on China will be successful.

MUFG market participants remain cautiously optimistic that much higher tariffs are unlikely to remain in place for long and may not even be implemented at all helping to dampen the negative market reaction.

Rabobank; “Before we get too carried away with buying the dip on the latest hopes of TACO perhaps it is worth remembering that the advocates of TACO theory are mostly the same people who told us that universal tariffs would never happen, yet here we are.

It added; “To predict what is likely to be the direction of travel on trade there is only one indicator you need to watch, and that is the US goods trade balance.”

S&P downgraded the French credit rating to A+ from AA- after Friday’s market close due to persistent unease over fiscal trends.

ING commented; “Given the fragility of the government, it remains too early to price out the French effect from the euro fully.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Sterling Soft, Underperforms G10 Currencies

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was mostly rangebound on Monday amid a lack of both UK and US data releases.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3437, virtually unchanged from the start of Monday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) held largely steady against most of its major peers on Monday, as a lack of significant US economic releases left the currency without a clear directional driver.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown has led to the postponement of several key data releases, limiting opportunities for USD investors to take decisive positions.

As a result, the ‘Greenback’ traded in a tight range throughout Monday’s European session, struggling to make any meaningful gains against its rivals.

The Pound (GBP) also treaded water against most of its major peers on Monday, as the absence of notable UK economic releases left Sterling without a clear catalyst.

With no fresh domestic data to influence movement, investors remained cautious, holding back from making significant bets on the currency ahead of this week’s key releases, including the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) due on Wednesday.

As such, GBP exchange rates stayed largely rangebound throughout Monday’s European session, with the currency showing little momentum and remaining subdued against its major counterparts.

Adding to the subdued tone, analysts at Scotiabank highlighted that Sterling began the week on a softer footing, struggling to gain traction against most of its G10 peers.

Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne noted that while the Pound remains relatively stable, underlying sentiment and positioning continue to act as key near-term drivers.

According to Osborne: “The GBP is soft, down a marginal 0.1% vs. the USD and underperforming most of the G10 currencies into Monday’s NA open. This week’s release calendar is dominated by Wednesday’s CPI and Friday’s retail sales. Preliminary PMI’s will also be released on Friday. Fundamentals remain a secondary driver for the pound, as yield spreads extend their two-month consolidation and correlation studies reveal a newly negative relationship between GBP and spreads. Sentiment appears to be more dominant as a near-term driver, with risk reversals showing a 0.64 correlation to GBP on a 21-day rolling basis. Risk reversals remain deeply negative (pricing a premium for puts) but appear to be in the early stages of a recovery.”

Looking ahead to Tuesday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is expected to be shaped primarily by a speech from Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller, as both the US and UK economic calendars remain notably quiet.

Last week, Waller signalled the possibility of another US interest rate cut this year, citing ongoing concerns over the labour market and broader economic conditions.

Should he echo these dovish remarks this week, the ‘Greenback’ could come under renewed pressure, potentially seeing USD exchange rates slip against its major rivals.

Meanwhile, the UK data calendar is also devoid of notable releases, leaving Sterling without fresh domestic catalysts once more.

In this environment, GBP exchange rates are likely to remain confined within a narrow range, with trading largely guided by market sentiment and risk appetite rather than fundamental data.

Investor attention is expected to remain focused on Wednesday’s CPI release, meaning traders may continue to exercise restraint, maintaining a cautious approach and limiting significant GBP/USD movement ahead of the key inflation figures.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on October 20, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Attempting to break the bearish trend.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1640 – 1.1570 – 1.1490.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1740 – 1.1800 – 1.1880

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1580 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss of 1.1490.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1800 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss of 1.1880.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Based on recent Forex market trading. Euro trading has turned the tide against the US dollar, and further gains are likely as a result. The US dollar has come under renewed pressure against the euro following a sharp sell-off in US regional bank stocks. Zions Bank shares fell 13% after a $50 million write-off linked to a loan to California Bank & Trust, while Western Alliance Bank shares fell 11% after revealing its exposure to the same borrowers. Overall, these developments point to the potential emergence of vulnerabilities in US credit markets.

As currency investors know, when market concerns focus on US-specific issues, the US dollar tends to come under pressure: EUR/USD jumped to 1.1720 following these headlines before quickly rebounding and closing last week’s trading session around 1.1650, awaiting strong catalysts for a rapid rebound.

However, as the stock market sell-off extended to major European bank stocks last Friday, this US-centric feature faded somewhat, allowing the US Dollar to recover some of those losses, bringing the EUR/USD pair back to 1.1690. Nevertheless, the US Dollar fell by $0.65%$ against the Euro over the week, and the EUR/USD pair is heading for a rally again amidst a shift in momentum, with some analysts predicting a potential test of the 1.18 resistance level soon.

Factors supporting the euro’s rise

Recently, according to currency experts, French Prime Minister Lecornu’s resilience in two no-confidence votes last Thursday contributed to the euro’s trading. He survived after announcing plans to suspend pension reforms until after the next presidential election in 2027, sacrificing fiscal discipline for political necessity. According to experts, the French government’s stability, albeit volatile, is enough for the euro to offset a significant portion of France’s risk premium. Unless a new French government collapses before the end of the year, this should allow the EUR/USD pair to refocus on fundamental market drivers (interest rates and stocks).

On the other hand, the US dollar has also been under pressure due to the Federal Reserve’s ambition to cut interest rates by another quarter percentage point at its October meeting, seeking to support growth while avoiding rising inflation. As a result, the EUR/USD pair is now heading towards the resistance level it will reach in early October at 1.1750/1.1770. Overall, the Fed’s dovish tone has anchored the EUR/USD pair around the 1.18 resistance level, and this gap is expected to close quickly in light of the above developments.

The Future of US Interest Rates in the Coming Months

In this regard, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated in a speech he delivered at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) last week: “This policy stance, which I see as still constrained, is… A bit, it puts us in a good position to respond to potential economic developments.” In this context, Powell says the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut interest rates without risking inflation. The rise in stock prices and subsequent decline in the dollar confirm traders’ adoption of this interpretation. In light of these developments, forex market analysts see the 1.18 resistance level as a potential target for the EUR/USD pair in the near term.

Today’s EUR/USD trading is not anticipating any significant European or US economic releases, so forex investor sentiment will be the most important factor driving currency prices today.

Trading Tips:

The bullish shift for the EUR/USD pair needs more stimulus for confirmation, and that may only happen with stability above the 1.1800 resistance, which increases the positive expectations for the psychological resistance of 1.2000. Otherwise, selling pressure will remain the stronger force.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound initially tried to rally during the trading session against the US dollar but then fell to reach the 1.34 level. If we break down below the 1.34 level, then the 200-day EMA could be targeted at the 1.3272 level. Short-term rallies, I think, ultimately are situations where you look to fade signs of exhaustion. The 1.35 level, of course, is an area that has been resistant recently. And if we can break above there, then the 1.36 level could be targeted. All things being equal, this is more or less a neutral and sideways market as far as I can see.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

And new for today, we’re going to start looking at the euro against the British pound. The euro has gone back and forth against the British pound as we are in a very tight and kind of neutral range of about 150 pips. We have 0.86 offering support and 0.8750 above offering resistance. We are sitting right here on the 50-day EMA.

So, I think this remains a market that trades roughly in about a 50 pip range between 0.8666 and 0.8730, give or take a few pips on each turn. So ultimately, if we get to the bottom of that range, I’m interested in short-term longs. If we get to the top of that range, I’m interested in short-term shorts. That being said, if we break out of the 150 pip range, then obviously a much bigger move would be at foot.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

– Written by


James Fuller

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Near-Term GBP/USD Rangebound

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) endured choppy trading through the week, supported by dollar weakness but capped by UK fiscal uncertainty.

Some analysts forecast a multi-year climb to 1.43 by 2026, while others expect the GBPUSD to stay trapped between 1.32 and 1.37 through next year.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Choppy waters

After initial losses, RBC Capital Markets forecasts that GBP/USD will strengthen to 1.43 by the end of 2026 on dollar losses.

ING, however, has a 12-month forecast of 1.36 even with a weaker US currency.

After sliding to 10-week lows near 1.3250 during the week, GBP/USD secured a net gain to 1.3430 in choppy trading.

Risk appetite dipped late in the week on US-China fears and a slide in US banking stocks with traders also having to contend with the on-going US government shutdown while gold surged to a fresh record high as risk conditions remained a key focus.

Danske Bank commented on trade war fears; “The tariff escalation underscored two key points: first, that any renewed trade tensions under a Trump administration are unambiguously negative for the broad USD. Second, markets still view the announced measures largely as negotiation tactics rather than policy reality.”

Standard Chartered is relatively sanguine over the outlook; “We expect the US and China to reach a trade truce again as both sides have economic leverage to avoid a downward spiral.”

Rabobank noted a high degree of uncertainty over trade policy; “Whether both players have a full grasp of their own and their opponent’s tools and power(s) remains an open question.”

It also expects a radical shift in the global order which risks dramatic shifts and high volatility; “That said, it’s even harder to see the spirit going back into the bottle. In other words, the world is changing more rapidly and profoundly than many would have imagined only a few months ago.”

The debate over UK fiscal policy will continue to simmer.

According to ING; “The fiscal risks are more prevalent into the budget in November. We’re not looking for a gilt crisis, but the Chancellor is going to have to make some tough decisions on tax rises or spending cuts.”

It added; “Tighter fiscal and looser monetary policy should ultimately be a bit bearish for sterling – though GBP/USD should trade between 1.32-1.37.

According to RBC; “In the short-term, we think there is room for sterling to underperform, particularly against the USD where the strength in GBP over the last year looks overstretched.

It notes the importance of November’s budget; “Increasingly these announcements have had an FX impact, most notably in 2022. The Budget last year was poorly received by markets and sterling considerably weakened in the weeks that followed.”

RBC, however, expects a multi-year dollar downtrend which will underpin GBP/USD.

It noted; “These long-term trends are rooted in structural asset allocation shifts rather than short-term market fluctuations, reinforcing the idea that the USD’s depreciation is a multi-year process driven by fundamental factors.”

At this stage, markets are still backing very cautious Bank of England rate cuts.

In contrast, traders have fully priced in two further Fed rate cuts before the end of 2025.

Standard Chartered commented; “Over the next three to six months, we continue to expect the USD to weaken, due to a cooling U.S. labour market, slower wage growth, and a more dovish Federal Reserve stance.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts