The pair remains affected by the dominance of a sideways inclination, as it continues to fluctuate repeatedly between the barrier near 181.70, while the 179.40 level forms strong support, reducing the likelihood of triggering a bearish attack. The conflicting signals from major technical indicators also support the continuation of this sideways behavior, leaving us waiting for the price to break one of the key levels to confirm the general direction of the upcoming trades.
We note that if the price succeeds in breaking the current barrier and holding above it, this will confirm its readiness to launch a strong bullish attack, beginning with gains that may start at 182.35 and 182.90, respectively. However, failure to break this barrier will force the pair into negative trading, with a chance of retreating again toward the support of the sideways trend.
Expected trading range for today: between 180.30 and 181.60
Price forecast for today:Sideways, as long as key levels remain intact.
While Japan’s Services PMI data supported bets on a BoJ rate hike, US Services PMI data will likely influence the Fed’s post-December rate path.
Economists forecast the ISM Services PMI to fall from 52.4 in October to 52.1 in November. A sharper drop in the headline PMI would signal a loss of economic momentum, given that services account for around 80% of US GDP. However, traders should also consider employment and price trends. Slower sector activity, rising job cuts, and higher prices may revive stagflation jitters and challenge bets on post-December Fed rate cuts.
Rising stagflation risks and a hawkish BoJ rate path align with my short- to medium-term outlook for USD/JPY.
Crucially, there are no FOMC member speeches to influence sentiment, with the Fed Blackout Period in effect until December 11, limiting Fed-driven volatility.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a December cut stand at 89.2% on December 2, up from 86.4% on December 1. Meanwhile, the probability of a January rate cut edged up from 23.0% to 25.7%. Sentiment toward first-quarter rate cuts will be key, given that markets are expecting BoJ and Fed policy adjustments in December.
Technical Outlook: USD/JPY on a Downward Trajectory
Looking at the daily chart, USD/JPY traded above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), affirming a bullish bias. However, fundamentals have begun to shift from the technical trend, supporting a bearish outlook.
A drop below the 155 support level would open the door to testing the 50-day EMA. If breached, the 153 support level would be the next key support. Crucially, a break below the 50-day EMA would indicate a bearish trend reversal, suggesting a near-term fall toward 150.
Above: P.M. Keir Starmer defends his budget in a speech delivered Monday. Picture by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street.
Post-Budget relief for British pound, but a wary eye on the local elections in May.
The pound to euro exchange rate’s (GBP/EUR) rally has scope to run further say analysts at Barclays, who judge “last week’s budget generates scope for an, at least partial, unwind of the pound’s fiscal risk premium.”
In a weekly analysis, the investment bank’s FX team say this upside potential derives from a larger headroom, residual net short positions, and a positive risk backdrop into December.
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It adds that “a relatively warm reception” by the Labour party to the budget is important to consider, in that it allays near-term risks of political instability.
“The back-loading of fiscal tightening implies execution and credibility risks, but we think these are already adequately priced,” says Barclays.
The pound has fallen steadily against the euro through the course of 2025, with losses accelerating in the summer as markets prepared for a tough budget.
Above: GBP/EUR remains in a downtrend, with the post-budget bounce faltering.
Fears were elevated that political pressures on Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer would result in a market-unfriendly budget.
In particular, there were concerns that the debt market would not take kindly to any budget that failed to address the country’s growing deficit.
But some £26BN in tax rises over the coming years restores the Chancellor’s headroom by £22BN, which is a relief to markets, if not the increasingly despondent UK taxpayer.
The Bank of England is another key consideration for financial markets and the pound.
“Terminal rate pricing of just under 3.5% for Bank Rate (including a 25bp cut in December) also remains appropriate, in our view, as the macro outlook over the Bank’s policy horizon is largely unchanged,” says Barclays.
A terminal rate of 3.5% implies two further cuts in the cycle.
Marrkets are fully priced for a cut in December, with another falling by April 2026.
“If anything, aggregate demand is supported on the margin and confidence could also rebound as Budget uncertainty clears, thereby reducing the dovish tail for the pound,” adds Barclays.
In all, analysts expect EUR/GBP to edge closer to the rate differential-implied level (which is c.0.86) in the near term.
In GBP/EUR terms, that is 1.1630.
Further out, the next key milestone is the local elections in May 2026.
“With the market unlikely to be forgiving of further signs of fiscal slippage, such as in relation to the benefits cuts last summer, policy stability is a precondition for a more lasting rebound in sterling,” says Barclays.
With Labour set for a wipeout in local elections, pressure to change leaders will grow, making the installment of a devout left wing leader and Chancellor a clear risk for sterling in the year ahead.
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded within a narrow band on Tuesday, supported by increasingly dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3194, almost unchanged from its opening levels.
The US Dollar (USD) struggled for direction on Tuesday as markets ramped up bets on a December Fed rate cut.
Pricing now implies an 87% probability of a 25bps reduction next week, with investors increasingly convinced the Fed will need to ease policy again as signs of cooling demand accumulate.
Dovish positioning was reinforced by reports that President Donald Trump may soon nominate Kevin Hassett — his top White House economic adviser — to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when Powell’s term ends in May.
Hassett is widely viewed as favouring more aggressive interest rate cuts, fuelling speculation that the Fed’s easing cycle could accelerate in 2025 if he is confirmed.
These developments kept the US Dollar’s upside firmly capped, even as a modest pullback in risk appetite offered some limited support.
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The Pound (GBP) lacked momentum on Tuesday, drifting in directionless trade amid a clear absence of UK economic catalysts.
With no major data releases to materially influence sentiment on the UK’s growth outlook or the Bank of England’s (BoE) next policy move, traders kept GBP positioning light.
Lingering uncertainty over the UK’s economic trajectory — and whether the BoE will deliver another rate cut in December — also contributed to Sterling’s subdued tone.
GBP/USD Forecast: Slowdown in US Services PMI to Drag on the Dollar?
Looking ahead to midweek trade, movement in the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is likely to be driven by the latest ISM services PMI.
Following October’s strong rebound, November’s index is expected to show a cooldown in activity. A downside surprise — mirroring Monday’s weaker ISM manufacturing reading — could weigh heavily on the US Dollar by reinforcing expectations for further Fed easing.
In the UK, the final services PMI is expected to confirm a sharp slowdown in November as businesses paused hiring and investment decisions ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget. This may keep the Pound contained even if USD sentiment softens.
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EUR/USD holds near 1.1610 at the time of writing on Tuesday, remaining broadly steady on the day. The pair has preserved the gains recorded earlier this week, supported by easing risk aversion despite mixed signals from the Eurozone. Investors continue to digest the acceleration in Eurozone inflation and the higher-than-expected Unemployment Rate, though neither development appears likely to shift the European Central Bank (ECB) away from its current stance of maintaining rates unchanged in the coming months.
In the United States (US), the US Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to stabilize after a hesitant performance on Monday. The improvement in overall risk appetite has partly offset the negative impact from another soft reading in the manufacturing sector, highlighted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November, which fell to 48.2 and signaled a deeper contraction in activity.
Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain tilted toward additional monetary easing in December, following recent comments from several officials indicating that another rate cut is a plausible scenario.
In the background, markets are also monitoring developments in Japan, after remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda briefly revived concerns of a potential rate hike, triggering a global sell-off in Bond markets and pushing US Treasury yields higher. However, an improvement in sentiment on Tuesday, supported by a well-received Japanese government Bond auction, has helped EUR/USD maintain its stability.
The remainder of the week will be decisive for the EUR/USD, starting with the Eurozone Services PMI, ISM Services PMI and the ADP private-sector employment report in the US, all scheduled for release on Wednesday.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1615, 3 pips above the day opening price. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) edges higher and sits below price, suggesting buyers retain control. Price holds above this rising SMA, which offers dynamic support near 1.1577. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.7 is neutral-to-bullish, indicating steady momentum. The rising trend line from 1.1491 underpins the bias, with support aligned around 1.1593.
Immediate resistance aligns at 1.1656, followed by 1.1669. Support is seen at the rising trend line near 1.1593, then at 1.1491. A sustained break above 1.1656 would open a path toward 1.1669, while a drop through 1.1593 could shift the tone and expose 1.1491.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
EUR/JPY pulled back early Monday but remains broadly supported, with buyers likely to step in on dips.
The Bank of Japan’s inability to tighten keeps the yen weak, leaving the broader uptrend intact unless 175 breaks convincingly.
The Euro fell against the Japanese yen during early trading on Monday, but as you can see, we continue to see a lot of choppy behavior. And I think ultimately this is a market that will, given enough time, have to make a bigger decision. The short-term pullbacks really aren’t anything significant. I think what we’re looking at here is a situation where the market remains by on the dip. And I do think plenty of buyers are out there waiting to get involved. Keep in mind that the Japanese yen is backed by the Bank of Japan, which can do almost nothing to tighten monetary policy at the moment. And with this, I think you have a situation where, eventually, most currencies rise against the Japanese yen, even if we did fall from here, the 177.70 level is where the 50-day EMA currently resides and is rising. This should offer at least a little bit of support.
If We Break Down
Anything underneath there then opens up the possibility of a move down to the 175.50 yen level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will eventually go to the 185 yen level, but I do believe ultimately this is a market that probably goes a lot higher than that as well. This will be especially true if we get more risk appetite out there. And especially if the Japanese finally admit that they cannot tighten things.
If we break down below the 175 yen level, then it is likely that the trend may change, but I just don’t see that happening at the moment. I believe that this is a story about the Japanese yen and not the euro, as we see most yen-related pairs moving in the same direction.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The British pound briefly rallied before stalling near key moving averages, reflecting hesitation ahead of upcoming central-bank decisions.
With rate-cut expectations in both the US and UK, the broader bias remains downward unless GBP/USD can break above 1.3350.
The British pound initially rallied during the trading session on Monday, but as you can see, we have turned around to show signs of hesitation. What I find interesting is that we find ourselves testing a couple of major moving averages at the moment, and we don’t seem to have the massive amount of momentum that would suggest that we are going to blow through these indicators. After all, the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA just below them both are important to traders, and it looks like they are in fact offering a little bit of a lid. The British pound has been falling since the middle of September, when we got the FOMC statement and press conference that got rid of the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to start cutting rates rapidly. Quite frankly, the inflation situation in the United States hasn’t been completely beaten. So, we’ll have to wait and see how long that takes to change the attitude of the FOMC.
Central-Bank Policy Crosscurrents
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, you have the United Kingdom, where, of course, the Bank of England almost cut rates at the last meeting but did not. And with that, the British pound did rally a bit, but the vote count was awfully close. And this does suggest that it is probably only a matter of time before we see rate cuts coming out of London. And therefore, if Washington, DC, cuts rates, and then London cuts rates, you essentially have no change. And I think that’s what you’re seeing here.
Ultimately, this is a market that I do favor the downside. But we need to see a little bit of a drop in order to start kicking up the momentum to drop to the 1.30 level in the short term. I think we’re just hanging around. And it is worth noting that we are only nine days away from the FOMC interest rate decision. So, there is going to be a lot of questions If we can break above the 1.3350 level now, I would anticipate that the pound is probably going to be very strong and go looking to the 1.38 level. Until then, I’m fairly skeptical.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
US dollar/yen trading shows a sharp Monday pullback, but support near ¥155 has prompted attempts to recover.
Despite volatility and hesitation, the long-term uptrend remains intact as the interest-rate differential continues to favor the United States.
The US dollar has fallen quite a bit against the Japanese yen during trading here on Monday, but has shown signs of trying to recover as the 155 yen level has offered a bit of support. This is a market that’s been in an uptrend for quite some time, and I don’t think that changes overall, but I do recognize that there is a certain amount of volatility and a certain amount of hesitation to own the dollar, but over the longer term, the interest rate differential will continue to favor the United States. And I just don’t see how that changes. After all, even if the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates, the reality is that the interest rate differential continues to just favor the Americans. The Bank of Japan is nowhere near being able to tighten monetary policy. And therefore, you get paid to hang on to this pair even though on a day like Monday, it’s a little tough.
I Remain Long
For the last several months, I’ve had a position favoring the US dollar in this pair, and that hasn’t changed despite the sharp pullback. And I do think that we will eventually try to get back to the 158 yen level, but we probably have some work to do to get there. The next Federal Reserve interest rate decision is in about nine days, so we’ll have to watch that.
Between now and then, there’s probably a lot of conjecture as to what happens and a lot of nonsensical handwringing and talking online that will perhaps influence a little bit of the trading, but over the longer term, this is still a trade that I do think eventually finds buyers looking to take advantage of value.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1520 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1460.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1720 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
Based on recent trades, the EUR/USD price has seen stability within a symmetrical triangle pattern over the past few weeks, with trend lines converging by connecting higher lows and lower highs. The currency pair is currently trading around the key psychological level of 1.1600 and appears ready to test the upper boundary of the triangle, which may determine its next direction.
Technically, a break above the resistance trend line at 1.1650 would confirm an upward breakout and could trigger a rally as high as the widest part of the triangle pattern. Concequently, this would put the EUR/USD on track to test higher levels near or beyond 1.1700. However, if the resistance holds, the EUR/USD pair could retrace towards the triangle’s support at the psychological level of 1.1500, where the ascending trend line has provided support since late November. This area also coincides with the 100-period simple moving average, which has acted as dynamic support throughout the period of neutrality.
The 100-period simple moving average (SMA) is currently above the 200-period SMA, suggesting that the stronger trend has shifted to bullish or that an upward breakout is likely to gain momentum. The narrowing gap between the moving averages reflects continued neutrality, although the overall technical structure still favors buyers. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator is hovering near its midpoint after pulling back from overbought territory, indicating that momentum is relatively neutral at present. The oscillator has room to move in either direction, so a break above resistance could push it back to overbought levels, while a rejection could lead to a decline.
At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the 50 level, indicating a balance between bulls and bears. The oscillator’s neutral stance suggests that the direction of the breakout could be decisive once the price breaks out of the triangle’s boundaries.
Trading Tips:
Please be aware that the EUR/USD exchange rate may be affected by upcoming economic data and central bank comments, particularly any shifts in expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy or the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) actions, which could impact the dollar.
Factors Affecting EUR/USD Trading Today
Amid attempts to bounce higher, and according to forex currency market trades, the EUR/USD path today, Tuesday, December 2, 2025, will be affected by anticipated remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Economically, it will be influenced by the announcement of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, along with the announcement of the bloc’s unemployment rate, which will be released at 12:00 PM Egypt time.
On the front of global central bank policies, expectations suggest that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again on December 17, and several times next year. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future due to increasing economic recovery and improving inflation dynamics.
Recently, the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) in Germany saw a notable acceleration in November, rising from 2.3% in October to 2.6% in November (consensus was 2.4%). Meanwhile, the ECB’s October survey showed a slight increase in one-year inflation expectations from 2.7% to 2.8%, reinforcing the view that the ECB is unlikely to cut rates in December. With the ECB having no justification to move, and the US Federal Reserve likely cutting rates in December, the divergence in interest rate policy between the EU and the US is expected to provide a continuous fundamental source for the EUR/USD price to rise.
Platinum price ended the positive attack by hitting $1725.00 level, to form extra barriers to force it to activate the attempts of gathering gains by reaching $1632.00.
Forming extra support at $1605.00 level by stochastic fluctuation near 80 level makes us expect renewing the bullish attempts, to repeat the pressure on $1695.00 level, then attempts to reach the next main target at $ 1745.00, while its decline below $1605.00 and providing negative close will increase the efficiency of the bearish corrective track, to expect reaching $1575.00 before any attempt to reach the suggested extra targets.
The expected trading range for today is between $1610.00 and $1710.00
