• The Euro rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session on Tuesday but has seen a little bit of pushback as the market continues to focus on a lot of headline risk coming out of the Middle East.

• Keep in mind that the situation in the Middle East has a lot of people worried about energy inflation and that in and of itself could cause a bit of a problem for many countries, not the least of which would be Germany, which is a major driver of where the Euro’s going to go.

• After all, the German industrial base is a major driver of European strength.

And if we continue to have issues, that will continue to plague the Euro. Furthermore, we continue to see economic numbers in the United States come out hotter than anticipated and that has a major influence on US dollar strength, at least in the short term.

Ultimately, I think this is a market that is doing everything it can to try to determine whether or not we will stay in the same range that we have been in for the better part of the year.

Long-Term Range and Core Levels

Overall, the 1.14 level continues to be a massive support level for the EUR/USD pair, while the 1.1850 level above continues to be a massive resistance level.

We are closer to the bottom, so some value hunting may occur here, and I think that’s what we’ve seen over the last couple of days.

However, most things favor the US dollar right now, not the least of which would be the uncertainty out there. So, I do think that rolling over makes sense, but if we could break above the 200-day EMA, that could change the overall attitude.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The GBPJPY pair returned to settle near 214.50 level, affected by the attempt of providing bullish momentum by the main indicators, to delay the bearish corrective attempts temporarily, facing positive momentum will ease the mission of breaching the current barrier, to begin targeting some bullish stations by its rally towards the resistance at 215.50.

While the failure of the breach and holding below 214.50 will increase the chances of activating the corrective attempts, to target 213.50 level initially, attempting to break the barrier at 212.80 to find an exit for resuming the negative trend in the near and medium period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 214.00 and 215.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

This currency pair had been ranging over more than two weeks when it finally moved sharply lower on risk-off, strong USD sentiment following surprisingly high US jobs data at the end of last week. US Dollar strength continued initially as the new week got underway, perhaps given an additional tailwind by the brief resumption in fighting between Iran and Israel.

Now markets have got past the jobs data, and the fighting is over between Iran and Israel for the time being, we see the US Dollar start to weaken and the price move higher. The question is whether the greenback will reassert itself and drive a technically significant breakdown, or will the dominant consolidation pattern of the last few weeks reassert itself?

US CPI Data Tomorrow May be Key Driver

Tomorrow will see the release of US CPI (inflation) data, which can be said to be the major driver of the Forex market over the past few years. This is why the question of the Dollar’s direction is timely. US inflation is the number one consideration the Federal Reserve has when it decides on its interest rate every few weeks, and interest rates are a key driver in Forex.

The rate of annualized inflation is expected to increase, but the rate of increase month-on-month is expected to slow down. Last year, inflation had begun to look like it had been conquered anew, but the oil price shock since March this year has generated a wave of inflation feeding through the global economy, so inflation data is again being scrutinized very closely.

If the inflation data is higher than expected, it will be very likely to send the price of this currency pair lower, and vice versa.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Despite the recent dip lower, a look at the price chart below shows ranging behaviour. The price is showing light short-term bullish momentum and is returning into the middle of its zone of comfort. There are not many key support or resistance levels which can be confidently drawn. However, there is quite likely to be new resistance at $1.3388 or $1.3409 with the latter level looking as if it will be stronger, so traders should beware when the price action approaches these levels.

The dominant consolidation suggests that the price will remain between $1.3409 and $1.3307 until the US CPI data is released tomorrow.

If the price breaks down today below $1.3300, it probably won’t last, but it is a bearish sign that markets are expecting higher inflation data. If the price breaks above $1.3409, it might not go much further but that will be a bullish sign.

The line of least resistance is downwards.

My Take on GBP/USD

I think the best approach here will be to take the area between $1.3409 and $1.3307 as today’s range, and be prepared to trade a reversal from a bounce rejecting one of the extreme points. If the bearish bounce happens at $1.3388 that is also OK, but I have more faith in $1.3409.

I doubt we will see a breakout until the US CPI data release which will happen during tomorrow’s New York session.

Review, Support & Resistance Levels

My previous GBP/USD signal on 4th June was not triggered.

Long Trade Idea

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.3307.

• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.

• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.3388 or $1.3409.

• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.

• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either the British Pound or the US Dollar.

Ready to trade our free Forex signals? Here is our list of the top Forex brokers worth reviewing.

The US Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate remains close to multi-decade highs and is trading around 160.20 after repeatedly testing the 160 level over recent weeks.

Citi expects USD/JPY to remain elevated in the short term but continues to forecast a move lower towards 155 by the end of the year. The bank believes the 160 area should act as an effective ceiling for the currency pair.

According to Citi, the recent resilience of USD/JPY is surprising given that long-term interest-rate differentials between the US and Japan have narrowed significantly, a development that would normally support Yen appreciation.

The bank argues that strong hedging-related Yen selling linked to record-high Japanese equity holdings has become a key factor supporting USD/JPY and offsetting the impact of narrower yield spreads.

Citi’s proprietary valuation models suggest that current USD/JPY levels remain broadly justified by market fundamentals and international capital flows. The bank’s analysis indicates there is no major mispricing in the pair at present.

The bank identifies Japanese equities and the broader US Dollar trend as the two most important drivers of USD/JPY, with interest-rate spreads still playing a significant role in determining direction.

While Citi remains constructive on the Yen over the medium term, it believes that any meaningful short-term decline in USD/JPY would likely require further Bank of Japan policy normalisation and additional currency support measures from Japanese authorities.

For now, Citi expects USD/JPY to remain close to current levels, but continues to forecast a gradual correction lower towards 155 as monetary policy normalisation and a moderation in Yen-selling flows begin to support the Japanese currency.

• The Euro has been somewhat resilient during the trading session on Monday after initially gapping lower.

• The 1.15 level is a bit of a support level that I think a lot of people will watch from the psychology standpoint, but I also recognize that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the United States dollar, and the 200-day EMA sits just above the 1.16 level.

The 1.16 level will continue to be important, not only from the 200-day EMA showing up, but it’s also a significant barrier. Ultimately, this is a market that I have no interest in buying, and I do think that any signs of exhaustion will end up being an opportunity to get short again.

Consolidation Range and Market Drivers

The 1.14 level below would be my target overall, as it is the market being stuck in a larger consolidation range. The 1.1850 level above is your ceiling in this pair. The 1.14 level, of course, will be important, and if we were to break down below there, then we could see the EUR/USD market go much lower.

Ultimately, I think this is a market where you continue to see the US 10-year yield be the main driver. And it is worth noting that eventually it fell after spiking higher right around the New York open, but we’ve seen it turn right back around.

Ultimately, I think Europe has major problems, and that will also be perhaps driven by the idea of energy inflation or, worse yet, a lack of energy for the German industrial sector. The United States continues to see inflows, and I think that is your main story here.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The EURJPY pair resisted the negative pressure, ending the negative attempts by providing positive close above the extra support at 184.25, forming some bullish waves to settle near 185.00.

The contradiction of the main indicators will force the price to provide intraday mixed trading, to expect activating the bullish attempts if it settles above the mentioned support to target 185.50 level, reaching the barrier at 186.00, while the return to settle below the extra support will confirm the dominance of the negative scenario, forcing it to suffer several losses by reaching 183.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 184.25 and 185.45

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: Triple Dollar Boost Pushes GBP to 3-Week Lows

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) fell to fresh three-week lows as a powerful combination of rising geopolitical tensions, weaker investor risk appetite and growing expectations of higher US interest rates boosted demand for the US Dollar.

With markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes later this year, Sterling remains under pressure despite showing signs of resilience around the key 1.3300 support level.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Slides to 3-Week Lows

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped to 3-week lows just above 1.3300 on Monday before looking to stabilise.

The Pound was still relatively resilient given the underlying conditions, but the dollar benefitted from renewed ge-political concerns, weaker risk conditions and expectations of higher US interest rates. The dollar index was close to 2-month highs.

GBP/USD survived a test of 1.33 in May, but any slide through this area could trigger losses to 1.3160.

UoB commented; “A break below this level is not ruled out, but deeply oversold conditions suggest GBP might not be able to maintain a foothold below this level.”

Middle East tensions increased again on Monday following Israeli attacks on Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile launches against Israel and oil prices secured renewed gains.

ING commented; “The geopolitical backdrop is also shifting dollar-positive, with most surprised that Brent is not trading even higher now that Iran and Israel are directly exchanging fire.”

Equity markets registered sharp losses on Friday and the mood remained defensive on Monday while US bond yields moved higher. According to ING; “An unwind of risk assets and especially an unwind of emerging market positions is normally dollar-positive.”

As far as the US economy is concerned, the latest jobs report was stronger than expected with an increase in non-farm payrolls of 172,000 for may compared with consensus forecasts of around 85,000 while the April increase was revised higher to 179,000 from the 115,000 reported previously.

MUFG commented; “Stronger employment growth alongside upside risks to the inflation outlook from the energy price shock in the Middle East has encouraged market participants to price in multiple rate hikes from the Fed in the year ahead.”

ING looked at the important US inflation indicators this week; “At some point, that expected tightening will be too aggressive, but we cannot see that story being unwound this week. This is because it is another week for US price data, where the May headline CPI reading is expected to push through 4% year-on-year, and PPI final demand should remain near 6% YoY.”

Capital Economics chief markets economist Jonas Goltermann also expects higher US rates; “The U.S. payrolls report paints a picture of a U.S. labour market that is strengthening despite the ongoing energy price shock.”

He added; “That combination makes policy tightening by the Fed later this year increasingly probable. We now expect the FOMC to deliver two 25 basis-point rate hikes later this year, in response to the energy supply shock and the re-acceleration of the U.S. labour market.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

2026.06.09 2026.06.09
Yen Under Pressure As Interventions Yield Little Result. Forecast as of 09.06.2026

Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/

Japan’s previous interventions in the Forex market, totaling $73 billion, have yielded no results. Moreover, the sale of US Treasuries has boosted yields worldwide. In other words, it has damaged Japan’s debt market. Let’s discuss this topic and develop a trading plan for the USD/JPY pair.

Major Takeaways

• The Forex market is bracing for currency interventions.
• Investors are anticipating a rate hike by the BoJ.
• Japan needs to choose the lesser of two evils.
• Short positions can be opened if the USD/JPY pair drops below 159.85.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yen

Forewarned is forearmed. Investors are ramping up hedging against a surge in yen volatility to levels not seen since October 2022. At that time, Japan resorted to currency intervention for the first time in many years to halt the rally in USD/JPY quotes. The pair is hovering near the psychologically important 160 level, making it extremely vulnerable to interventions.

Demand for Hedging Against Volatility Surge

Source: Bloomberg.

The authorities do not want a weak yen, which fuels inflation due to rising import prices. This leads to higher bond yields and increases the cost of servicing the massive national debt. The government is turning to currency interventions, fearing that other methods will not be as effective. For example, the Bank of Japan’s tightening of monetary policy risks triggering an even sharper rise in debt market rates.

However, money alone cannot solve the problem. Japan spent roughly $73 billion on its previous foreign-exchange intervention, while its securities holdings declined by a similar amount. Much of these assets consisted of US Treasuries. Selling them to fund further interventions would not only risk provoking the US but could also push bond yields higher globally, including in Japan.

Japan’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

Source: Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, as speculators remain wary of currency interventions and reluctant to push USD/JPY quotes higher too sharply, policymakers are trying to avoid making matters worse.

There had been hopes that a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East would push oil prices lower and ease inflationary pressures in the United States. Such a scenario would weaken the US dollar by reducing both safe-haven demand and the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes. Instead, the conflict continues to escalate.

The yen remains fundamentally weak, while the government is throwing money away and trying to figure out how to avoid making things even worse with currency interventions. The only way out seems to be choosing the lesser of two evils. According to Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management, the Bank of Japan must aggressively raise the overnight rate to strengthen the yen. Although the futures market indicates a 90% probability of a monetary tightening in June, the company believes that a 25-basis-point increase is insufficient. A 50 or 75-basis-point hike is needed.

The government and speculators are not in an enviable position. Policymakers are wary of the consequences of currency intervention, while traders are reluctant to take on excessive risk and face potential losses.

Weekly USDJPY Trading Plan

If the conflict in the Middle East continues, its impact on the Forex market will allow investors to buy the dip in the USD/JPY, just as they did in May. On the other hand, a US-Iran deal would be a game-changer. In the event of a sharp downward move, the pair can be sold on breakouts of 159.85 and 159.7.

This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

Following last week’s surge in the US dollar, there was some further upside initially and that caused the EUR/USD to fall to 1.15 handle first thing this morning, before bouncing back. The euro initially fell further as oil prices extended their gains on fresh escalation in the Middle East conflict with Iran and Israel exchanging fires. However, the moves unwound slightly by late morning London trade as Trump said that Israel and Iran were looking to do an immediate ceasefire. The US president said, “final negotiations are proceeding, subject to stupidity getting in its way.” Oil prices pared earlier gains and then turned negative after Ian reportedly declared end of military operations against Israel. Looking ahead, US CPI and ECB’s rate decision are among the important macro events for the EUR/USD forecast this week.

Dollar looking to advance gains

Last week, the greenback rallied after a much stronger-than-expected labour market report prompted investors to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, sending yields higher.  Looking ahead, we have US CPI and ECB rate decisions looming this week. Traders are also watching oil prices and the US-Iran-Israel situation. Hopes for a potential deal between the US and Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz faded after the latest escalation in the conflict. But with oil prices turning red on the day and still holding in the existing ranges, markets are still betting that the strait will re-open soon. 

The US dollar gain strong momentum last week as investors increasingly factored in the possibility of tighter monetary policy, while the sell-off in stocks also reinforced demand for the greenback. Expectations of tighter monetary policy gained ground on the back of a strong US jobs report, which pointed to a labour market that has regained momentum during the first half of 2026, reducing concerns about an imminent slowdown in economic activity.

Traders have now fully priced in a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase by year-end, a notable shift from expectations just a few weeks ago.

This week’s US inflation releases could reinforce that view. Consensus forecasts suggest headline CPI may move to 4.2% year-on-year in May, while producer price pressures remain elevated. With the Federal Reserve entering its pre-meeting blackout period ahead of the June FOMC decision, policymakers have limited ability to push back against increasingly hawkish market pricing.

As a result, the dollar may continue to attract support heading into the meeting, particularly as investors anticipate the Fed could adopt a firmer policy stance and further distance itself from any perception of easing.

Keep an eye on equity markets

The US dollar could find haven flows if we see fresh selling in the tech space, following Friday’s big plunge. While the upcoming SpaceX IPO might bring out the bulls again, currencies with strong links to global sentiment may remain particularly vulnerable if weakness in the sector persists. Today, though, index futures were higher as markets attempted to regain their poise after Friday’s drop. But should we see another sharp retreat from risk assets this week, this would most likely favour the dollar against high beta currencies. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to underpin safe-haven demand for the greenback. That said and despite the escalation of direct hostilities between Iran and Israel, oil prices have remained relatively contained.

Will it be a hawkish ECB hike or a dovish one?

The ECB is likely to maintain a firm tone despite growth concerns, when it meets to decide on policy on Thursday. The single currency came under heavy pressure against the dollar at the end of last week, reflecting the broad-based strength of the greenback. But we could see some euro-specific movements this week if the ECB turns out to be more hawkish or dovish than markets are expecting. The central bank is widely expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. More important than the rate move itself will be the tone of the accompanying guidance.

A relatively hawkish message remains the most likely outcome. Policymakers are expected to leave the door open to further tightening later in the year amid the energy market uncertainty. The challenge for the ECB is that growth indicators are beginning to soften all thanks to the developments in the Gulf. At the same time, renewed strength in energy prices complicates the inflation outlook. This combination of slowing growth and persistent price pressures may leave the EUR/USD forecast struggling to gain bullish traction.

Technical EUR/USD forecast

The EUR/USD is likely to remain under pressure, despite today’s bounce back. For now, the 1.1500 level has held firm. This will continue to act as a key battleground this week. A sustained move away from here may prove difficult while markets remain focused on the prospect of further Fed tightening. But with the prior bullish price action failing to lead to any bullish breakthrough, the risks remain tilted to the downside.  A clean breakdown below 1.1500 would bring the March low of 1.1410 into focus, barring a plunge in oil prices – say as a result of a deal between the US and Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Resistance is now seen around the 1.1570-1.1600 area, followed by 1.1670 and then 1.1700.

— Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R