Created on October 17, 2025

• The British pound rallied during the trading session on Thursday to reach the crucial 50 Day EMA indicator.
• That being said, we have given back some of the gains and it looks like the US dollar might come back into favor.
• With that being the case, I could see this market pulling back a bit, but I also recognize that the British pound has been stronger against the US dollar than many other currencies, and with that being the case I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that is just simply trying to sort itself out.

US Dollar Strength

Even if the US dollar strengthens quite significantly, it will continue to struggle a bit against the British pound, due to the relative strength of this currency against many others out there. Ultimately, this pair starts to fall apart, it’s more likely than not that other currency such as the Euro or the Canadian dollar will get absolutely crushed.

Technical Analysis

Keep in mind that the technical analysis for this market is somewhat sideways, as we are sitting between the 50 Day EMA and the 200 Day EMA indicators, and it’s also worth noting that we are at the 1.34 level, which is the middle of the overall consolidation range that we have been in between the 1.32 level on the bottom, and the 1.36 level on the top. As we are in the middle of this range, then it makes quite a bit of sense that we could look at the market as being “near fair value.”

Ultimately, the US dollar has been fighting most other currencies, and I think that will remain the same situation here. With the market being this noisy as it is, I think fading signs of exhaustion will more likely than not end up being selling opportunities, but you need to watch the US dollar against multiple other currencies, to get an idea as to how the US dollar may behave in general. If we do break above the 50 Day EMA and perhaps the 1.35 level, then it’s likely that we could go looking to the 1.36 level after that.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on October 17, 2025

• The US dollar has fallen a bit against the Japanese yen and now it looks like we are starting to see buyers jump back into the market.
• This is a pair that I remain bullish about, and I think we’re starting to show signs of maybe being able to get involved in this market.
• After all, traders will try to find some excuse to take advantage of that positive swap.

That being said, the 150 yen level is where the 50 % Fibonacci retracement level is on the move that we have seen recently. Or you could even look at the gap and see that we tested the 50 % Fibonacci retracement level from the actual gap itself. It does make sense that people will be willing to get involved and try to reach the 153 yen level. This is a market that often sees these little pullbacks in short order, but the interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar.

I Still Remain Bullish

All things being equal, this is a market that I think given enough time, this is a pair that goes much higher. And with that being the case, I have to look at potential targets, and I will base it on and granted this is a huge look here at technical analysis, but we did break out of an ascending triangle, which basically measures for a move to about 162 or so, which is where we broke down from in July of 2024. I think that might be where we’re going.

The interest rate differential and of course the soft Japanese central bank will continue to push this thing higher, and unless we get some type of major risk-off event, which is always entirely impossible, I think the Japanese Yen remains on its back foot for quite some time.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Sterling Flat despite Weak UK Growth

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was mostly rangebound on Thursday, in the wake of the UK’s latest GDP release.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3425, virtually unchanged from the start of Thursday’s session.

The Pound (GBP) held its ground against most of its major peers on Thursday, following the release of the UK’s latest GDP figures.

The data came in as expected, showing that the economy grew by a marginal 0.1% in August, while July’s figure was revised down to -0.1%.

Although the results underscored the UK’s fragile economic backdrop, they were broadly in line with forecasts and therefore failed to trigger any significant market reaction.

Despite the subdued data, Sterling managed to remain resilient through Thursday’s session, with GBP exchange rates holding steady against most counterparts.

The US Dollar (USD) struggled to gain traction against most of its major peers on Thursday, as markets awaited a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials.

Following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address on Tuesday evening, in which he hinted that further interest rate cuts could still be possible this year, investors were cautious, with any additional dovish signals likely undermining the ‘Greenback’.

Adding to the pressure, a mildly upbeat market mood limited demand for USD, given its role as a safe-haven currency.

As a result, the US Dollar found it difficult to make significant gains during the first half of Thursday’s European trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast: Central Bank Commentary to Steer Direction

Looking ahead to Friday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to be influenced primarily by speeches from both Federal Reserve and Bank of England (BoE) officials, as economic calendars for the UK and US remain quiet.

For the US Dollar, any dovish signals from Fed policymakers could pressure the ‘Greenback’, particularly if the remarks fuel further expectations of interest rate cuts later this year.

Such commentary may see USD exchange rates retreat heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, Sterling will be sensitive to comments from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill.

Should Pill signal concerns about the UK economy or hint at a more cautious monetary outlook, GBP exchange rates could struggle to gain traction, leaving the Pound vulnerable as the week concludes.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

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Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Rebounds as Fed Dovish Shift Hurts USD

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rebounded from 10-week lows near 1.3250 after dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric pushed the dollar lower.

ING maintains a 12-month target of 1.36, although analysts warn that lingering UK rate-cut risks may cap Sterling upside.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Bounces from 10-Week Lows

The Pound Sterling-US Dollar rate dipped sharply to 10-week lows close to 1.3250 on Tuesday before a recovery to 1.3360 on Wednesday.

The dollar lost ground on relatively dovish rhetoric by Chair Powell and unease surrounding US-China trade wars. The Fed Beige Book will be watched closely later Wednesday.

According to UoB; “The rebound from oversold conditions suggests that instead of continuing to decline, GBP is more likely to trade in a range today, expected to be between 1.3290 and 1.3365.”

Scotiabank commented; “Recent support was clearly observed in the mid-1.32s, and resistance appears limited ahead of 1.34 and the 50-day MA at 1.3476.”

ING expects little headway and has a 12-month GBP/USD target of 1.36.

The outlook for interest rates remains a key element.

In comments on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell noted that the US jobs market showed “pretty significant downside risks.”

Following the rhetoric, markets were even more confident that the Fed would cut rates at the October meeting.

Scotiabank remains very cautious over dollar fundamentals; “The prospect of easier Fed policy through 2026 constitutes a clear constraint on the USD outlook in broad terms, as does the rising level of Federal government debt. Many large economies are dealing with elevated levels of government debt but few have as weak a profile for the long-term debt trend as the US.”

As far as US data is concerned, the New York empire manufacturing index strengthened to 10.7 for October from –8.7 previously and well above expectations of –2.

UK fiscal and monetary policy will be important elements for the Pound

ING commented; “The UK economy has not been performing as badly as the local press would have us believe, but monetary and fiscal risks do stalk sterling.

After this week’s data, the Pound is still being hampered by increased speculation that the Bank of England will have greater scope to lower interest rates.

According to Scotiabank the Pound is vulnerable; “Fundamentals have deteriorated with a notable pullback in UK-US spreads, narrowing from their recent two year highs in a pullback that warrants attention. The outlook for relative central bank policy is shifting and rates markets are pricing in renewed dovishness at the BoE following Tuesday’s labor market disappointment.”

In comments on Wednesday, there was a clear signal from Chancellor Reeves that taxes would be increased in the November budget.

Saxo Markets UK investor strategist Neil Wilson expects market jitters “I’m not sure how many sellers are left in the short USD trade but I would tend to favour a pre-Budget retreat to the 1.30 support before we maybe see some fiscal tightening that is more than the market is expecting.”

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Created on October 16, 2025

• The US dollar has fallen pretty significantly during the trading session on Wednesday against the Japanese yen, but we are still extraordinarily elevated.
• With that being the case, I’m still looking for a little bit of a bounce that I can take advantage of, and we are starting to get it late in the session.
• The question is, will it be enough to really start buying into? I don’t know.

I think maybe we have a little further to go. I will let the market just tell me what it’s going to do. But right now, I know that I don’t want to get short of this pair. The 150 yen level would be interesting. The 149 yen level would be even more interesting. If we just bounce from here, then we may find ourselves consolidating a bit between the 151 yen level and the 153 yen level, trying to get our footing on this breakout.

Major Rectangle Below, and Possible Triangle

We previously had a major rectangle that we gapped out of whether or not we fill that gap remains to be seen. Typically, you do. So that is something that you want to pay attention to. But I also recognize that you can make an argument that we just broke out of a triangle and that could signify a massive move in this pair. In fact, you could be looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of a move to about 162 yen. That would be basically back where we fell in July of 2024. So, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Regardless, I do think that this is a buy on the dip market, and I do recognize that you get paid to sit at the end of the day with the swap interest rate differential. And at this point, I’m just looking for a nice entry, and I will get long again.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on October 16, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• General Trend: Bearish.
• Today’s Support Points for EUR/USD: 1.1600 – 1.1560 – 1.1480.
• Today’s Resistance Points for EUR/USD: 1.1680 – 1.1730 – 1.1800.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EURUSD from the support level of 1.1550, target 1.1780, and stop 1.1470.
• Sell EURUSD from the resistance level of 1.1760, target 1.1500, and stop 1.1820.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Based on recent trading, the EUR/USD pair has formed a double bottom pattern on the short-term chart, suggesting the possibility of a reversal from the previous bearish trend. Across trading company platforms, the Euro/Dollar pair appears to be testing the neckline resistance at the key psychological level of 1.1600, and a breakout of this area could confirm a shift in direction. If the neckline is successfully broken, the EUR/USD pair could rise by the same height as the double bottom formation. However, the price may encounter resistance from the nearby descending trend line and the dynamic pivot point of the 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which could trigger a pullback before the upward trend gains momentum.

At the same time, the indicated area of interest on the chart shows where sellers could take a stand, but continued buying pressure outside this area suggests buyers are ready to take control. A strong break above the descending trend line and the moving averages could pave the way for a move towards higher levels. Regarding moving averages, the 100-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is still bearish, or that downward momentum may continue. However, the gap between the indicators appears to be narrowing, suggesting a potential bullish crossover is on the horizon. Furthermore, this confirms increasing buyer interest.

The Stochastic indicator for EUR/USD performance is hovering near the overbought zone, reflecting strong upward momentum at the moment. A decline of the oscillator from this area could signal buyer exhaustion, potentially leading to a rebound. On the other hand, if the Stochastic remains high, it would indicate that buyers are still in control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also trending higher, so the price may continue to follow the same approach with buyers having the upper hand. However, the oscillator has limited room to climb before reaching the overbought zone, meaning that the upward momentum may start to fade soon.

Trading Tips:

Keep in mind that the rebound in the Euro/Dollar price still lacks strong momentum to confirm its occurrence, and the 1.1800 resistance will remain the most crucial to confirm an upward shift. Therefore, carefully monitor the factors influencing the currency exchange rate.

Dollar Retreats After Federal Reserve Signals

According to Forex currency market trading, the U.S. dollar fell after the Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” report boosted expectations for further U.S. interest rate cuts. The report showed slowing economic growth, persistently weak labor market conditions, and rising prices for input costs. Indicators of tariff implementation varied, with some companies keeping selling prices unchanged, while others reported an increase in import costs.

According to expert views on the report, the “Beige Book” generally reinforces the view that the economic outlook has not changed much since the Fed’s September meeting. They suggest that this keeps the Fed on track to cut U.S. interest rates by 25 basis points later this month, and likely again in December.

According to reliable trading company platforms, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.2% to 98.596 after recording a one-week low of 98.417 on Wednesday.

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Created on October 16, 2025

• The British pound initially fell during the trading session on Wednesday, breaking below the ¥200 level, only to turn around and show signs of life.
• The market ends up forming a hammer on both Tuesday and potentially Wednesday now, suggesting that the buyers are in fact starting to fight back.
• The Japanese yen got a little bit of a boost after some members of the Bank of Japan suggested that perhaps they would have to do something about the weakness of the Japanese yen, but at this point in time the Japanese cannot afford higher interest rates of any real circumstance, as the Japanese economy is far too indebted to carry that load.

Pullback

I think this pullback makes a certain amount of sense considering that the ¥205 level offered significant resistance that we are now seeing a bit of a pullback. The question is whether or not we can pick up any momentum to the upside. If we do, then I’m a buyer of this pair because of the pullback giving me an opportunity to get involved in a obvious move to the upside, and of course a massive amount of interest rate differential that comes into the picture. The 50 Day EMA currently sits at the ¥200 level, so that makes that level even more important, and I think it’ll be interesting to see if we can stay above there. As long as we stay above the ¥200 level, then I think it’s a “buy on the dips” market, but I don’t necessarily think I would throw a ton of money into this market right away.

I think this is the beginning of something bigger, and the question will be how much further can it go to the upside? I think at this point in time the ¥210 level is a very reasonable target, surprise me if we end up going much higher than that. I have no interest in shorting this market until we break down below the ¥198 level, something that doesn’t seem very likely at the moment.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.