– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Slips as BoE’s Pill Calls for Cautious Approach

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting minutes.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3423, virtually unchanged from the start of Wednesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened against most of its major counterparts on Wednesday, extending its gains as investors sought safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and Japan.

The prevailing risk-off sentiment continued to underpin demand for the ‘Greenback’, keeping USD exchange rates on the front foot through the first half of the session.

However, later in the day, the Dollar could face headwinds with the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting minutes.

If the minutes strike a dovish tone or hint at a greater willingness to cut interest rates, this could prompt a pullback in USD, potentially halting the currency’s recent winning streak.

The Pound (GBP) held its ground against most major peers on Wednesday, showing resilience despite a lack of UK economic data and a broadly risk-off market mood.

Sterling was offered mild support later in the session after comments from Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill.

Speaking at the University of Birmingham, Pill said policymakers should take a “conservative” approach to setting interest rates and stand ready to act firmly if inflation risks rise.

He reiterated that the Bank must remain focused on price stability, while acknowledging the high level of uncertainty facing the economy.

Pound to US Dollar Forecast: Sparse Data to Prompt Choppy Trade?

Looking ahead to Thursday’s European session, the Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is likely to remain at the mercy of broader market sentiment amid a continued lack of key economic data.

With the US government still in shutdown, the release of the latest initial jobless claims report will be delayed, leaving investors without fresh US data to guide trading.

In the absence of new catalysts, the ‘Greenback’ is expected to react primarily to shifts in risk appetite.

Should a cautious, risk-off tone persist across markets, the safe-haven US Dollar could stay in demand, extending its recent strength.

As for the Pound, the UK calendar also remains bare, likely leaving Sterling directionless once again.

GBP exchange rates may therefore fluctuate in response to prevailing risk trends and external developments, with the currency likely to struggle to find a firm footing through Thursday’s session.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: USD Benefits from Undermined Confidence in EUR and JPY

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) slid to its weakest level in six weeks as French political uncertainty, poor German data, and a resurgent dollar combined to leave investors braced for further volatility.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Slide to 6-Week Low

The US Dollar has continued to make headway in global markets with support from Euro and yen selling.

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate dipped sharply to 6-week lows at 1.1610 and struggled to recover amid negative sentiment. French developments will be a key element on Wednesday.

UoB commented; “The decline is oversold, but with no sign of stabilisation just yet.”

According to ING; “based on our view that the dollar will face downside risks with today’s Fed minutes and the USD rally looking a bit overdone in general, we think EUR/USD back at 1.170 is more likely than a test of 1.150 in the coming days.”

The yen has remained under pressure following the weekend election while French political fears have continued to unsettle the Euro.

MUFG commented; “The US dollar has benefitted this week from political developments outside of the US which have undermined confidence in the euro and yen in the near-term and overshadowed the more negligible negative impact on the US dollar from the ongoing US government shutdown.”

The latest German data recorded a 4.3% slide in industrial production for August compared with market expectations of a 1.0% decline.

ING commented; “Extremely disappointing industrial data in August has just increased the risk of yet another quarter of contraction for the German economy.”

MUFG added; “the weakness will add to concerns over the disruptive impact from higher tariffs.”

French political developments will continue to be watched closely with Prime Minister Lecornu facing a deadline today to find a solution to the political impasse and budget deadlock.

MUFG commented; “Lecornu’s last-ditch efforts to reach a political agreement by today’s deadline appear likely to fail. President Macron’s close ally and his first Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has even suggested that he should take a more radical step of offering to resign before the end of his term in 2027 on the condition of a budget being adopted.”

The US data flow is continuing to be disrupted by the US government shutdown

Minutes from the September Federal Reserve policy meeting will, however, be released on Wednesday.

At that meeting, interest rates were cut by 25 basis points with Miran dissenting and calling for a 50 basis-point cut.

Markets are still pricing over just over an 80% chance of two further Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025.

There are, however, also doubts whether further rate cuts are appropriate given overall financial conditions which will create further uncertainty.

Macquarie Group global forex and rates strategist Thierry Wizman commented; “With stock indexes near all-time highs, gold prices rallying higher, and corporate bond credit spreads very tight, the case for monetary policy being overly restrictive still looks rather flimsy.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

Created on October 08, 2025

• The euro rose again during the trading session on Tuesday against the Japanese yen, as traders continue to price in the idea of a potentially loose monetary policy coming out of Japan. At this point, traders are blaming it on the election, but I have no idea why they thought Japan was ever going to have any other type of monetary policy. Japan has been loose for over 20 years now,and quite frankly has a demographics bomb ready to go off that will make it so that they cannot finance their debt with any type of interest at all.
• Japan is by far the most heavily indebted industrial country in the top tier of economies, and therefore in order to continue to have the economy function, low interest rates are a necessity, not a “wish.”

Technical Analysis

The market recently broke above the ¥172 level, pulled back to that level, and then bounced nicely. We obviously had that massive gap at the open on Monday, and despite the fact that I really want to get bullish and start buying this pair, the reality is that the gap is so big that you would be foolish to risk that type of stop loss. Yes, it could work out in your favor, but there’s also the very real possibility that we will eventually pull back in order to fill that gap, and at this point in time I believe that you would need a roughly 400 pip stop loss to make this trade even feasible. In other words, you would be looking for a massive swing trade to the upside, which of course is possible, but far beyond the scope of most retail traders.

Because of this, I’m looking for short-term drop that fills the gap or at least comes close to it and then bounces. At that point in time, I am buying this pair and hanging onto it for what will probably end up being several months. I have no interest in shorting this market in this environment.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on October 08, 2025

• The British pound fell significantly during the early hours here on Tuesday, but it looks like the 1.34 level is going to continue to offer a bit of support and as a result I think we’ve got a situation where we just go sideways Ultimately, this is a market that given enough time probably has to make a bigger decision But we are basically at fair value currently because we have been between 1.32 and 1.36 and 1.34 of course is right in the middle.

At the Top of a Big Upmove?

When you look at this market, it has gone higher for quite some time now, it looks like we are struggling to get any real footing. And it is worth noting that the US dollar is fighting back against multiple currencies. But the British pound had been stronger than many of the other. So I think this is a situation where you are looking at this as a good harbinger of what could happen. The US dollar against multiple other currencies. After all, if the British pound has been stronger and it suddenly collapses against US dollar, weaker currencies like the Canadian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the euro are going to get eviscerated. That being said, though, we could rally from here. And if we do, I think the one point three six level is worth watching. This being the case, I would also take a look at the FOMC reaction. We’ve been down ever since then, and the US dollar looks as if it is trying to change its overall tune here. And with that being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where traders are going to continue to see a lot of volatility, I think maybe back and forth, neutral trading probably is the best way to approach this pair at the moment.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? Here are the best regulated trading platforms UK to choose from.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Read the full USD/JPY forecast, including chart setups and trade ideas.

As traders lower bets on an October BoJ policy adjustment, uncertainty lingers over the RBA’s rate path, spotlighting AUD/USD.

Aussie Inflation and the Aussie Dollar in the Spotlight

Turning focus to the AUD/USD pair, Aussie inflation and labor market data are clouding the RBA’s rate path. Australian ANZ-Indeed job ads slid 3.3% month-on-month in September, accelerating from a 0.3% drop in August. The job ad slump followed August’s sharp drop in full-time employment, signaling a deteriorating labor market. A softer labor market may curb wage growth, dampening inflation.

However, recent inflation figures have raised doubts about a November RBA rate cut, fueling monetary policy uncertainty. The Aussie Monthly CPI Indicator rose to 3% in August, reaching the top end of the RBA’s 2-3% target range, up from 2.8% in July. While recent labor market data has weighed on the Aussie dollar, AUD/USD remains above August levels, underscoring uncertainty over the timing of an RBA rate cut.

On Friday, October 10, RBA Governor Michele Bullock may share views on recent data and the RBA’s policy stance.

AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch

• Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Weaker Aussie data, dovish RBA rhetoric, and rising trade tensions may drag AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA and $0.655.
• Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Stronger Aussie data, hawkish RBA cues, and easing trade friction could drive AUD/USD toward $0.66.

See our full AUD/USD analysis for detailed trends and trade setups.

US Politics, Fed Speakers, and Interest Rate Differentials

While Aussie economic data continues to fuel speculation about an RBA rate cut, developments on Capitol Hill and Fed speakers will also influence AUD/USD trends.

Another failed Senate vote and growing calls for back-to-back Fed rate cuts in October and December would narrow the US-Aussie rate differential, favoring the Aussie dollar. A narrower rate differential would likely drive AUD/USD toward $0.66. A sustained move above $0.66 could bring $0.665 into play.

On the other hand, a US government reopening and rising support to delay monetary policy easing could widen the rate differential, favoring the US dollar. A wider rate differential may push AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA and $0.655. If breached, $0.65 would be the next key support level.

Created on October 08, 2025

• The euro has plunged a bit during the early hours here on Tuesday as the US dollar continues to strengthen. Quite frankly, the US dollar just won’t roll over and die like everybody said it was going to do. And now we find ourselves at the uptrend line. The uptrend line, of course, has been in effect since the middle of April, so it matter at this point, and we are below the 50-day EMA. Now keep in mind that during the Monday session, we made this exact same move only to bounce and form a hammer.
• If we break down below this uptrend line, then I think we’ve got a shot at running to the 1.16 level. The 1.16 level being broken to the downside opens up quite a bit of selling pressure, perhaps down to the 1.14 area where I would anticipate seeing the 200 day EMA come in and offer some noise. All things being equal.

The FOMC Peak

Pay attention to this peak that we made during the FOMC press conference because that was it. And it’s been miserable since. So, I definitely think that the Euro has some major problems. Quite frankly, the United States dollar was supposed to sell off after that meeting and yet it didn’t. So a lot of times it doesn’t come down to what the pundits are telling you. Listen to what the market’s telling you. The market’s telling you that at the very least the US dollar is not going to disappear, as some of the more hyperbolic traders out there had suggested. It’s generally when you hear talk about losing the world’s reserve currency status and how everybody is running from the dollar that you’ve seen the bottom or you’re getting close to it. We started hearing a lot of that talk back in middle of June and here we are basically at the same level. So, for a currency that’s dying, it’s not doing much dying. I think we’re on the precipice of something big. However, if we were to break above the 1.18 level, then maybe we get some confirmation of the uptrend. But I think there’s enough risk aversion out there right now to make the US dollar perhaps a little bit more attractive than people had thought.

Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best regulated forex brokers to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Copper price remains stable since yesterday below $5.0600 barrier, forming more of the intraday sideways trading, reminding you that there are positive factors, especially with its stability within the bullish channel’s levels, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of achieving the required breach, to open the way for recording extra gains that might extend towards $5.2000 and $5.3200.

The risk of changing the positive trend of the current trading if it breaks the extra support near $4.7500, which might force it to suffer some losses by reaching $4.550 and $4.4100 before reaching the suggested positive targets.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.8800 and $5.2000

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Sterling Pressured Ahead of Fed Meeting Minutes

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) weakened on Tuesday amid a risk-off market mood.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3435, down roughly 0.4% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened against several of its major peers during Tuesday’s European session, finding support despite a combination of domestic and policy headwinds.

While the ongoing US government shutdown and rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts would typically weigh on the ‘Greenback’, demand for the safe-haven currency was bolstered by deteriorating risk sentiment.

A cautious market mood, fuelled by escalating geopolitical tensions in both Europe and Japan, prompted investors to seek shelter in safer assets.

This allowed the US Dollar to attract support and hold firm across much of the currency market throughout Tuesday’s European trade.

The Pound (GBP) edged lower against most of its major counterparts on Tuesday, as another session lacking in UK economic data left Sterling without a clear directional driver.

With no fresh domestic catalysts to influence movement, GBP exchange rates were largely dictated by shifts in broader market sentiment.

The prevailing risk-off mood in global markets weighed on the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound, leaving it struggling to attract support throughout the session.

As investors favoured safer assets amid the cautious atmosphere, Sterling slipped against a number of its peers, particularly against its traditional safe-haven counterpart.

GBP/USD Forecast: FOMC Meeting Minutes to Drive Movement

Looking ahead to Wednesday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is expected to take its cues primarily from the publication of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting minutes.

With markets currently pricing in a high probability of upcoming interest rate cuts, investors will be closely analysing the minutes for any hints about the Fed’s near-term policy direction.

Should the report strike a dovish tone and reinforce expectations for rate cuts in October and December, the US Dollar could come under renewed pressure in mid-week trade.

Equally, any signs of caution or pushback against market expectations may lend the ‘Greenback’ some support.

Turning to the Pound, the UK’s data calendar remains light, leaving GBP to once again trade largely at the mercy of external factors.

However, a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill could inject some volatility into Sterling movement.

If Pill adopts a hawkish stance, this could provide the Pound with a modest boost during Wednesday’s European trading session.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts