Created on October 23, 2025

• The euro dropped initially during the trading session on Wednesday, struggling to maintain its strength against the Japanese yen.
• However, we have turned around to show signs of life, and the way that the market has turned around to show signs of strength suggests that the overall uptrend is likely to continue to be the way forward.
• It’s also worth noting that the ¥175.50 level is an area that has been important previously.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is obviously very bullish overall, as we had gapped to the upside after the Japanese election. With that being said, the market has pulled back to test the top of the gap, and now it looks like we are trying to turn things around and start to look like we are going to go to the ¥178 level. The ¥178 level is an area that offered resistance previously, so I think you have a situation where we are going to continue to see a lot of noise overall, and ultimately, I think this volatility probably has people looking at this through the prism of a “buy on the dips” market.

It’s not necessarily that like the euro itself, it’s just that the Japanese yen has so many issues with it at the moment that it makes sense that this pair will move right along with the other JPY-denominated markets. Ultimately, I do think we are higher, not only in this pair, but all of the other JPY-denominated pairs. All things being equal, I also would watch the 50 Day EMA near the ¥174 level, which is rising and offering itself as a bit of an uptrend line. Typically, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I also think all things being equal, the Japanese yen weakness will be the main driver here, although there is a bit of a positive swap in this pair if you are long.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on October 23, 2025

The U.S. dollar remains steady against the yen on Wednesday, holding above ¥150 support. Analysts expect continued upside toward ¥153–¥155, citing strong rate differentials and Bank of Japan policy, with dips viewed as long-term buying opportunities.

• The U.S. dollar has been a little bit noisy during the trading session here on Wednesday, but really not a lot has changed if you look at it through that prism.
• All things being equal, I think you’ve got a situation where traders are looking at this through the prism of a market that does pay you to hang on to the trade to the upside.

The ¥150 level has shown itself to be important multiple times, with the ¥150 level being resistance previously and then offering support when we fell on Friday to turn around and form a hammer. All things being equal, if the market were to break above the ¥152 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the ¥153.25 level.

Interest Rate Differential and Swap Pays

Over the longer term, I do anticipate that the ¥155 level will be targeted, possibly even higher than that. The 50-day EMA currently sits right around the ¥149 level and is rising, and should end up being a nice buying opportunity. Ultimately, this is a market where I think the interest rate differential continues to pay.

Therefore, you have to look at this as a market that is trying to go much higher over the longer term. Eventually, I think each dip gets bought into, and with the Bank of Japan in a situation where they are probably going to have to stay pretty loose, I think you’ve got a situation where we just cannot go in any other direction. For what it’s worth, the U.S. dollar is strengthening against most currencies, so I like this as a buy-on-the-dip scenario.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Copper price confirmed its surrender in its current period trading to the dominance of the sideways bias, affected by the stability of the barrier near $5.0600, which forces it to delay the attempts of resuming the main bullish attack, to notice its fluctuation near $4.9500 level.

Note that the stochastic contradiction with the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels and attempting to providing negative momentum that might force the price to form some corrective trading, to target the extra support at $4.7500, by breaking this support might force it to suffer extra losses by reaching $4.5800 and $4.4100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.7500 and $5.0600

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

Copper price confirmed its surrender in its current period trading to the dominance of the sideways bias, affected by the stability of the barrier near $5.0600, which forces it to delay the attempts of resuming the main bullish attack, to notice its fluctuation near $4.9500 level.

Note that the stochastic contradiction with the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels and attempting to providing negative momentum that might force the price to form some corrective trading, to target the extra support at $4.7500, by breaking this support might force it to suffer extra losses by reaching $4.5800 and $4.4100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.7500 and $5.0600

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: “EUR Could Test 1.1580”, Gold Price Slump Supports USD

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has continued to lose ground, retreating to 1-week lows just below 1.1580 amid a solid dollar tone and a further sell-off in gold.

According to ING; “The dollar has remained bid as US credit market concerns continue to ease, and the large drop in precious metals potentially offers extra support. More USD gains from here should be harder to sustain though.”

Wall Street futures were slightly stronger on the day and, according to Danske Bank; “The cross remains largely driven by US credit and equity sentiment.”

UoB sees scope for a near-term trough; “EUR could test 1.1580, but a continued decline below this level is unlikely. The major support at 1.1540 is also unlikely to come into view for now. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.1620 and 1.1640.”

Danske Bank has a 12-month EUR/USD forecast of 1.22.

Geo-political developments had a limited negative impact on the Euro following reports that the potential meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin had been postponed which dampened any talk of a potential Ukraine ceasefire.

Global trade developments will also be important amid underlying tensions over rare-earth minerals.

According to ING, US-China trade developments will need to be watched closely. President Trump stated on Tuesday that his meeting with Chinese President Xi may not take place.

ING commented; “For now, this is being seen as simple brinkmanship, but China has struck a sourer tone around these negotiations, and markets may be erring on the side of complacency. No meeting doesn’t equal higher tariffs, but it should be enough to weigh on risk sentiment and the dollar.”

US political developments will also be under scrutiny.

Danske Bank commented; “The government shutdown is now on the cusp of becoming the second-longest on record as it enters its fourth week, and prediction markets increasingly see it extending into November. The next key catalyst for the pair will be Friday’s CPI release, where we see upside risks that could lend the USD additional near-term support.”

Markets are continuing to price in over a 95% chance of a Fed rate cut next week with over a 90% chance of another cut in December.

The latest US consumer prices data is due on Friday with consensus forecasts that core prices will increase 0.3% for September.

Commerzbank commented; “the data is unlikely to be a game changer for next week’s Fed meeting, as the majority of Fed members assume that any tariff effect on inflation will be temporary anyway.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Sterling “Bearish” as Rate Expectations Soften

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slipped on Wednesday after a softer-than-expected UK inflation print fuelled speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) could begin cutting interest rates before the end of the year.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3420, down roughly 0.4% from Wednesday’s opening levels.

The Pound (GBP) came under sustained selling pressure during the European session after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that inflation in the UK cooled more than expected in September.

Headline CPI held steady at 3.8%, missing forecasts for a rise to 4%, while core inflation eased from 3.6% to 3.5%, instead of the anticipated uptick to 3.7%.

The weaker data suggested that inflationary pressures in the UK economy are fading faster than the BoE had anticipated, particularly in key areas such as food prices, which fell on the month.

According to ING, the data delivered a dovish signal for policymakers:

“The September UK inflation reading released this morning is sending a dovish signal to the Bank of England and weighing on the pound. Headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.8% (consensus 4.0%), while core slowed down from 4.6% to 3.5% and services CPI stabilised at 4.75% versus expectations of 4.8% and 0.3pp below the BoE’s latest forecast.”

The bank added that the main surprise came from food prices — a major concern for the BoE of late — which are now around 0.5 percentage points below the Bank’s August forecasts.

This softer inflation outlook prompted traders to ramp up bets on a potential December rate cut, leaving the Pound on the defensive throughout the day.

The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, held steady in relatively thin trading conditions amid a quiet domestic calendar.

Easing trade tensions between the US and China provided some modest support for the ‘Greenback’, after President Donald Trump described progress on trade negotiations as “fantastic” and signalled plans to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week.

The comments helped stabilise risk sentiment, though they failed to trigger any sustained directional move in USD exchange rates.

GBP/USD Forecast: UK Business Confidence to Drive Sterling?

Looking ahead, movement in the Pound US Dollar exchange rate on Thursday may hinge on the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) business optimism index.

Economists expect sentiment among UK firms to have softened in the final quarter of the year amid concerns about the economic outlook and tightening fiscal conditions ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget.

A weaker-than-expected print could see the Pound remain under pressure, while any upside surprise might help Sterling stabilise after its mid-week losses.

In the US, the government shutdown continues to suppress key data releases, meaning market sentiment will likely drive Dollar direction.

If risk appetite fades, USD could benefit from safe-haven demand, whereas a more upbeat tone across global markets may see the ‘Greenback’ give back some recent gains.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on October 22, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bearish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1570 – 1.1500 – 1.1430.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1670 – 1.1750 – 1.1810.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy the EURUSD from the support level of 1.1520, target 1.1800, and stop 1.1460.
• Sell the EURUSD from the resistance level of 1.1730, target 1.1600, and stop 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Investor appetite for the US Dollar as a safe haven has recently increased amid rising US-China tensions. This has led to selling pressure on the EUR/USD pair, extending losses to the 1.1600 support level today, Wednesday, October 22, 2025. With a complete absence of important US economic releases today, investors will continue to monitor for signals regarding the future policies of central banks. Today, ECB Governor Lagarde will deliver new statements at 15:30 Cairo time.

Movement of Technical Indicators Confirms EUR/USD Bias

Based on the daily chart performance and through reliable brokerage platforms, the EUR/USD price bias is currently steadily bearish. Breaking the 1.1600 support level will increase the technical losses for the currency pair. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around a reading of 43, which confirms the bearish shift, and it still has room for further decline before reaching the oversold zone. Similarly, the MACD indicator is firmly in the downward-sloping area. A break below the 1.1600 support will increase the likelihood of targeting the next, more significant support levels at 1.1550 and 1.1470, respectively.

EUR/USD Bullish Scenario

Conversely, over the same timeframe, there is no strong chance of a corrective rebound for the EUR/USD price without a renewed push towards the psychological resistance of 1.1800. Otherwise, the bears will continue to control prices.

Trading Tips:

Keep in mind that the EUR/USD pair will continue to be heavily influenced by investor risk appetite and the future easing of central bank policies.

Factors Influencing EUR/USD Trading in the Coming Days

Forex trading experts pointed to French concerns, as S&P Global Ratings recently downgraded France’s credit rating from AA- to A+ after the market close on Friday, due to persistent worries about its fiscal trajectory. On another note, important economic data will be released later in the week, with the release of the PMI Business Confidence Index and the US Consumer Price Report. At the same time, the US banking sector, the government shutdown, and political rhetoric are all expected to be influential market events.

Recently, a sense of relief has prevailed in the US banking sector, with equity markets making gains. Danske Bank noted that the earnings results of major UK banks were strong. It added: “These earnings have helped stabilize investor confidence and provided some support for the sector overall, even as concerns about smaller regional banks persist.” However, ING Bank maintained a cautious outlook, stating, “Indicators suggesting that lending issues do not extend beyond Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance may help ease pressure on the Dollar, but that may not be enough to fully calm concerns about the health of the credit market and reverse all of the Dollar’s losses.”

On the monetary policy front, financial markets are pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a rate cut next week, with more than a 95% chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates again at the December meeting. The Federal Reserve is currently in a media blackout period ahead of the meeting, with no official comments expected. Consequently, any unofficial media briefings will be closely monitored in case of sharp movements in equity markets.

On another front, trade tensions between the United States and China will remain a key factor. President Trump’s rhetoric was conciliatory over the weekend, raising hopes for a successful push on China.

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Created on October 22, 2025

• The British Pound has fallen during the early hours here on Tuesday against the US dollar again, but really, at this point in time, we seem to be just hanging around the 1.34 level.
• The 1.34 level is an area that I think is important because it is in the middle of the overall consolidation range that we had been in.
• The 50-day EMA sits just above, and that causes some resistance as well, but what I really find interesting is that we sliced through a major uptrend line, fell to the 200-day EMA about a week ago, bounced from there, and then failed at that previous uptrend line in the 50-day EMA also.

With this, I think you’ve got a situation where the market will probably continue to see a lot of resistance above. And therefore, I do prefer shorting this pair if I have a position.

I Use This as an Indicator

Truthfully, my favorite use for this market is to see how the US dollar is performing because if it’s strengthening here, it’s really going to put a beating on something like the euro, typically. With this, I look at the fact that the British pound has been so strong over the last couple of years in comparison to the euro, the yen, the Canadian dollar, and other currencies, and I use this as a secondary and even tertiary indicator with other trades.

If I had to put a position on would be short here, but I think the 200-day EMA will continue to be a bit stubborn. If we were to break down below the 1.32 level, then I think the bottom falls out, and in that environment, you are more likely than not to see the US dollar strengthening against multiple currencies.

If this market breaks above the 1.35 level, then maybe we go back to the 1.36 level, but that still doesn’t have us breaking out of the range. All things being equal, I think we’re drifting lower.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.