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GBP/USD rises as the UK GDP beats forecasts

GBP/USD is edging higher, holding above 1.3550 and moving towards 1.3600, supported by US dollar weakness and stronger-than-expected UK GDP data.

The UK economy expanded by 0.5% month-on-month in February, well above the 0.1% forecast and up from an upwardly revised 0.1% in January. The data suggests the economy had solid momentum heading into the Iran conflict. The dominant services sector drove growth, marking a fourth consecutive monthly expansion, while production and construction also contributed positively.

However, further upside in sterling may be limited as the outlook has deteriorated since the onset of the Iran war. Rising energy prices and the UK’s reliance on imported energy pose downside risks. The International Monetary Fund has already downgraded UK growth to 0.8% for this year from 1.3%.

Despite potential stagflationary pressures, Andrew Bailey has indicated that the Bank of England will not rush to raise interest rates, stressing that the duration of the conflict will be a key determinant. Should the war de-escalate and oil prices stabilise, inflationary pressures may prove transitory, reducing the need for aggressive policy tightening.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure, trading near a six-week low amid optimism over potential peace in the Middle East. President Trump has suggested that the conflict could end soon, with diplomatic efforts— including talks involving Israel and Lebanon—supporting risk sentiment.

Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged are weighing on the dollar. US initial jobless claims are expected to edge higher to around 215,000, and attention will remain firmly on geopolitical developments.

GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis

GBP/USD found support at the 1.3150 support zone and recovered higher, rising above the falling channel and above the 200 SMA to resistance at 1.36. This, combined with the RSI above 50, keeps buyers optimistic of further upside.

A rise above 1.36 opens the door to further gains towards 1.37 before bringing 1.3870, the 2026 high, into focus.

Support is seen at 1.3420, the 200 SMA and below here at 1.3340, the January low comes into play.

EUR/USD rises on USD weakness & ahead of ECB minutes

EUR/USD is holding above 1.1800 and extending gains, supported by broad US dollar weakness amid improving risk sentiment and growing optimism over a potential de-escalation in the Middle East.

The dollar has come under pressure after President Trump confirmed indirect negotiations with Iran, raising expectations that peace talks could resume in the coming days. He also suggested that Israel and Lebanon may begin direct talks soon, potentially paving the way for a more durable ceasefire.

Further weighing on the greenback, Trump has renewed his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, fuelling concerns over central bank independence.

The euro is also benefiting from improved market sentiment, with European equities moving higher and US stocks hovering near record highs, reducing demand for the safe-haven US dollar.

Attention now turns to eurozone inflation data, expected to confirm that CPI rose to 2.5% year-on-year in March. This comes ahead of the latest European Central Bank meeting minutes from March 19, where policymakers left rates unchanged but highlighted rising risks to both growth and inflation, particularly from elevated energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.

More recently, ECB officials have signalled that inflation expectations could rise faster than anticipated, strengthening the case for potential rate hikes in the coming meetings. However, policymakers continue to stress that there is no urgency to tighten policy, maintaining a cautious and data-dependent approach.

Looking ahead, developments in US–Iran relations will remain a key driver for EUR/USD, alongside incoming eurozone inflation data and ECB communication.

EUR/USD forecast – technical analysis

EUR/USD has recovered from the 1.1410 2026 low, rising above the 200 SMA and re-entering the rising channel. The price has run into resistance at 1.1825, the March high.

Buyers will look to rise above 1.1825 to extend gains to 1.1925, the February high. Above ere 1.20 comes into focus.

Support is seen at 1.1670, the 200 SMA. A break below here brings 1.16 into focus.

The GBPJPY pair forced it to provide sideways trading by its stability near 215.50 level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought levels, the price might be forced to provide some bearish corrective trading, however it couldn’t affect the main bullish track, depending on forming extra support level at 214.15 level.

Therefore, we will keep our main bullish scenario, to gather extra positive momentum, to ease the mission of reaching extra positive stations that might begin at 216.20 and 217.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 214.55 and 216.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair forced it to provide sideways trading by its stability near 215.50 level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought levels, the price might be forced to provide some bearish corrective trading, however it couldn’t affect the main bullish track, depending on forming extra support level at 214.15 level.

Therefore, we will keep our main bullish scenario, to gather extra positive momentum, to ease the mission of reaching extra positive stations that might begin at 216.20 and 217.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 214.55 and 216.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Hits 2-Month Best as US Stocks Surge

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) surged to two-month highs above 1.3580, with Sterling emerging as a best buy amid a rally in global equities and improving confidence over easing Middle East tensions.

Improving risk appetite has boosted GBP demand while the dollar remains under pressure, although markets are cautious that resistance around 1.36–1.37 could limit further gains.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Pound Hits 2-Month Highs

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate hit a 2-month peak just above 1.3580 on Tuesday before a limited correction to near 1.3550.

The Pound continued to demonstrate resilience while the dollar lost ground again as markets anticipated a resolution to the Iranian conflict with oil prices posting significant losses. A key element will be whether this optimism is justified and whether the dollar will continue to weaken.

According to UoB; “Further GBP strength would not be surprising, but given the overbought short-term conditions, the next technical target at 1.3645 may not come into view so soon.”

Scotiabank is broadly positive over the GBP/USD outlook; “We see limited resistance between current levels and the mid-Feb peaks around 1.37 and now look to support below 1.3450.”

There are hopes that US and Iran will hold another round of talks as pressure on Iran and the US continues to build.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore commented; “There is a growing expectation that the standoff will soon be resolved, allowing the U.S. administration to pivot towards declaring victory, before stimulating the economy ahead of the midterms.”

ING added; “Markets have grown more confident that the Middle East crisis is moving toward a resolution, with the US and Iran arranging a second round of talks, and Tehran seemingly willing to halt shipments to avoid testing the US naval blockade.”

The bank still expressed significant caution; “Given how unsuccessful the first round of negotiations was last weekend, these dollar levels seem to embed a fair amount of premature optimism. As such, the balance of risks is increasingly skewed to the upside for USD.”

MUFG considers that underlying dollar sentiment has deteriorated; “The failure of the US dollar to advance as much as we expected since the start of the conflict and the emerging signs of increased appetite for selling is an indication of the poor fundamental backdrop for the dollar ahead of the start of the conflict.”

Underlying economic trends will also be an important element and feed into the dollar narrative.

The US NFIB small business confidence index dipped to 95.8 for March from 98.8 previously. According to the NFIB; “the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike.”

Fed Chair nominee Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing is scheduled for April 21st.

At this stage, markets are not pricing in a Fed rate hike with around a 30% chance of at least one cut before year-end. Comments from Warsh will be important for market pricing and a dovish stance would hurt the US currency.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

The GBPJPY pair ended the last bullish rally by reaching 215.77 level, to face %100 Fibonacci extension level, which might form an intraday obstacle against the bullish attempts, to force it form some mixed trading before resuming the bullish trend, and there is a chance for retesting 214.55 level.

While breaching the barrier and holding above it will open the way for targeting more positive stations, to reach 216.20 directly by providing positive momentum that might lead it to reach the next main target near 217.50.

The expected trading range for today is between 214.85 and 216.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price confirmed its surrender to the bullish scenario by its stability yesterday above $2070.00 level, to form a new bullish rally and recording some previously suggested gains by reaching $2145.00 level.

The repeated stability above the moving average 55 near 1995.00, by the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of recording new gains, to reach $2205.00, which might form a new obstacle against the bullish rally, while surpassing this obstacle will ease the mission of achieving extra gains that might extend towards $2290.00 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $2070.00 and 22205.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: 6-Week GBP/USD Best Above 1.35

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) held firm above 1.3400 despite a dip to 1.3380, as renewed Iran tensions and a surge in oil prices tested market confidence.

With geopolitical risks intensifying and volatility rising, Sterling remains range-bound, with traders watching whether GBP/USD can hold support or push back towards the 1.3460 resistance zone.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Survives Initial Retreat

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped to 1.3380 in Asian trading on Monday before a recovery to 1.3425 with market resilience again a key issue.

The dollar gained a lift from renewed fears surrounding the Iran situation. The weekend talks between US and Iranian officials failed to make a breakthrough, increasing concerns that the ceasefire would not hold.

According to UoB; “the price action suggests that GBP has likely entered a rangetrading phase. For the time being, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3270 and 1.3460.”

UBS still expects the dollar will slide later in the year with an end-2026 GBP/USD forecast of 1.40.

After the talks failed to make a breakthrough, President Trump announced that the US would instigate a blockade to stop Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

There was a fresh jump in oil prices on supply fears with Brent jumping close to 8% and just below $100 p/b.

Danske Bank commented on Brent; “It traded above USD110/bbl before the ceasefire announcement last week and there is a clear possibility it will rise back to this level if the sides do not restart talks in the coming days.”

Overall risk appetite was less confident with weaker equities, although the overall impact was limited.

ING commented; “The focus now shifts to whether the naval blockade encourages another round of negotiations, whether the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen try to block the southern end of the Red Sea and what the likes of China make of interference in their oil imports.”
BNP Paribas noted that risks have increased; “We did expect negotiations to be difficult and lengthy but assumed that this weekend’s talks would be the beginning of a process which would, at least, result in a degree of situational stabilisation. This view was clearly misplaced.”
According to Rabobank; “On one hand, US escalation might work. Yet unless Iran were to crumble quickly, the prospect is of an even deeper global energy crisis ahead first.”
BNP did note the political pressure; “we would not be surprised if the negotiations are restarted relatively quickly given the current ceasefire timeline.”
The reaction of central banks will also be an important underlying element for markets, especially with upward pressure on headline inflation.

ING commented; “Away from the geopolitical headlines which will bounce the dollar around this week, the market focus will likely be on central bank reaction functions.”

The UK inflation data for March will not be released until next week, but Bank of England comments will be watched closely.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts