I wrote on 14^th September that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of the S&P 500 Index. The Index rose by 1.22% over the week.
2. Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index. The Index rose by 2.32% over the week.
3. Long of Gold. Gold rose by 1.11% over the week.
4. Long of Silver. Silver rose by 2.15% over the week.

These trades produced an overall gain of 6.80%, equal to 1.70% per asset.

A summary of last week’s most important data:

1. Federal Reserve Policy Meeting – the Fed cut rates by 0.25%, as was almost universally expected, and markets firmly expect two more such cuts by the end of 2025. However, only one cut is now expected in 2026 and Powell talked up inflation somewhat, so this could be seen as a minor hawkish tilt. The US Dollar gained firmly since the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
2. Bank of Japan Policy Meeting – rates were left unchanged as expected, but two dissenting votes in favour of rate hikes made this a hawkish tilt, resulting in the Japanese Yen making some gains after the meeting.
3. Bank of England Policy Meeting – rates were left unchanged as expected, there was a tiny hawkish tilt in the vote on whether to cut rates, but that didn’t help the Pound to advance.
4. Reserve Bank of Canada Policy Meeting – rates were cut by 0.25% as expected, there were not any real surprises here.
5. US Retail Sales – this was much better than expected, coming in at a month-on-month increase of 0.6% while only 0.2% was expected, which helped send US stock markets higher.
6. UK CPI – this was as expected, showing a relatively high annualized rate of 3.8%.
7. Canadian CPI – this was a fraction lower than expected, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% while no change was expected.
8. US Unemployment Claims – there were fewer than expected, which may have helped boost positive sentiment on the US stock market.
9. New Zealand GDP – this was expected to contract by 0.3%, but fell by 0.9%, which is a bad number. It helped sink the Kiwi over the week, which was the worst-performing major currency.
10. Australian Unemployment Rate – this came in as expected at 4.2%.

The major takeaway from the week was continuing strength in the US economy, which was a bit of a turnaround from the previous week. An impending recession in New Zealand is also on the cards, although globally speaking this isn’t a big deal, but it certainly is making an impact on the New Zealand Dollar.

There was again directional volatility than has been usual over recent weeks. Maybe the Forex market is starting to wake up.

There were record highs in Gold and in the major US stock market indices the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100, and a 14-year high in Silver. Markets now see a 78% chance of two further rate cuts, but the significance of last week’s Fed meeting was the hawkish tilt and the new expectation of only one further rate cut in 2026, so the US interest rate is still seen as likely to be 3.50% more than one year from now, and this may prop up the US Dollar despite its long-term bearish trend

This is likely to be a good time to trade or invest, with US stock markets and Gold and Silver really taking off.

The coming week will probably be quieter, as there are notable fewer high-impact data releases scheduled. It is likely that volatility will remain relatively low in the Forex market, with more action taking place in bullish stock markets. The VIX is at a low level, which suggests that the stock market’s bullish trend is likely to continue.

This week’s important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US Core PCE Price Index
2. US Final GDP
3. Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI in the USA, Germany, and the UK.
4. Australian CPI (inflation)
5. Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Rate & Monetary Policy Assessment
6. US Unemployment Claims
7. Canadian GDP

It is a public holiday in Japan on Monday.

For the month of September 2025, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair would rise in value if we got a daily close above $1.1806.

This set up on Tuesday, but the price has been falling since then.

I made no weekly forecast last week.

There were no unusually large price movements in currency crosses last week, so I have no weekly forecast this week.

The Canadian Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the New Zealand Dollar was the weakest. Volatility was unchanged from last week, with 26% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. Next week’s volatility is likely to decrease as we have only one major central bank policy meetings but little else scheduled of high importance.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Last week, the US Dollar Index printed a bullish pin bar after printing four consecutive bearish ones. Also, the price is now above where it was 13 weeks ago, so by my preferred metric, I can declare the long-term bearish trend is over. This places the US Dollar in an interesting position.

We can account for the new firmness in the US Dollar by what happened at the Fed’s policy meeting last Wednesday – if you drill down to a shorter-term price chart, you can see the strong bullish reversal from the low happened just as that meeting started to announce its results. The Fed has now led the market to expect fewer rate cuts in 2026 – only one is now widely forecasted – so we have seen a hawkish tilt, which was given a further tailwind by Jerome Powell’s talk about inflation remaining somewhat high.

It may not be wise to focus on short USD trades right now, although there are strong bullish trends in some assets which are priced in USD which are gaining very strongly. I think it is not so much about the Dollar, but more about funds flowing into the USA.

The EUR/USD currency pair finally made a long-awaited bullish breakout last week, rising strongly to reach a new 4-year high. This would have been a signal for a lot of trend traders, including me, to go long. However, the price has declined since that signal was given, but that doesn’t necessarily mean much for this currency pair, which typically sees deep retracement within its long-term trends, which it tends to follow relatively reliably.

Worrying for bulls though, the weekly chart below shows that the weekly candlestick was a bearish pin bar, rejecting an area just above a major consolidation zone, which is a bearish sign.

The Euro was one of the strongest major currencies over the past week, despite its decline during the second half of the week.

I remain long of this currency pair, and I see a potential new long trade entry if get a daily (New York) close above $1.1867. However, if you are going to buy on the dips, this is one of the best currency pairs to do that with. A bounce off $1.1735 would be the logical entry signal for a dip buy here.

The NZD/USD currency pair was one of the biggest movers last week, printing a large bearish engulfing candlestick which closed very near to its low. These are bearish signs, but it is worth noting that the price is approaching an area which has been pivotal in recent months, and which could be supportive. Also, the price has not truly exited its recent consolidation zone. Another cautionary note can come from the fact that the New Zealand Dollar does not have a great track record of respecting trends and tends to reverse very easily.

Having said all that, there is a good fundamental reason behind the Kiwi’s decline last week – New Zealand quarterly GDP came in at a much worse than expected level, showing a decline of 0.9% when the consensus forecast was a decline of about 0.3%. This raises fear of a recession which would likely prompt a series of hasty rate cuts.

It will be interesting to see what will happen next week. A further decline in the Kiwi would not be surprising. Possibly it would be a good component for a short basket.

The S&P 500 Index had a great week, rising strongly and closing not far from the top of its range well into blue sky at a new record high, almost reaching 6,700. The way the price was able to overcome the big round number at 6,500 was another bullish sign.

US stock markets are rising strongly despite the recent strength in the US Dollar.

The index has risen by about 10% since the start of 2025 and by 36% since the April low caused by the Trump tariff panic. It is an open question how much further the current bull run will go, but betting against new record highs in the US stock market is a brave and probably foolish move, unless it’s a cautious play in individual underperforming stocks.

I am bullish on the S&P 500 Index.

The NASDAQ 100 Index had a great week, rising strongly and closing very near the top of its range well into blue sky at a new record high, above 24,500. This was an outperformance over the broader S&P 500 Index.

US stock markets are rising strongly due to the increasing feeling that the US economy is stronger than was expected last week.

The index has risen by more than 15% since the start of 2025 and by nearly 50% since the April low caused by the Trump tariff panic. These are above-average numbers, even in a bull market, especially the increase from April. It is an open question how much further the current bull run will go, but betting against new record highs in the US stock market is a brave and probably foolish move, unless it’s a cautious play in individual underperforming stocks.

I am very bullish on the NASDAQ 100 Index.

Silver had another stunning week, showing yet another outsize rise in value, again closing near the top of its weekly range, and powering up to a new 14-year high. It also outperformed Gold and all other precious metals. These are bullish signs, as is the breakout from the linear regression analysis shown within the price chart below.

With Silver’s outperformance against Gold, it is probably worth being bold on the long side here.

Having said, if you are only just entering a new long trade here, as the move is quite extended, a smaller position size might be wise.

I am very bullish on Silver.

Gold rose last week to rise to print a new all-time high, but closed a bit below that high and the round number at $3,700. It is worth noting that Gold underperformed Silver, and left a bit of an upper wick on the weekly candlestick, as can be seen in the price chart below.

The long-term bullish trend and break to new record highs are bullish factors, as is the strong US stock market, as the US stock market has tended to be positively correlated with Gold, to the surprise of many who see it as a hedge against inflation.

For anyone who is only entering a long trade now, it might be wise to use a smaller position size to account for any sudden high-volatility snapback towards lower prices. Just like the stock market, you have to wonder how much further this bull run will last – but it is backed by a very strong long-term bullish trend, and you trade against that at your peril unless you start to see clear signs of a reversal in the price action – which is not showing here yet.

I am bullish on Gold, but it might be wise to take a smaller long position here than with Silver, which looks more bullish. I would wait for a daily (New York) close above $3,700 before entering any new long trade here.

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of the S&P 500 Index.
2. Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index.
3. Long of Silver.
4. Long of Gold after a daily (New York) close above $3,700.

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– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: Fiscal Shock Sends GBP Sliding Toward 1.34

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) weakened on Thursday as fresh concerns over the UK’s fiscal outlook rattled gilts and reinforced fears of a “doom loop” between rising yields and higher debt-servicing costs.

Government borrowing surged to £18.0bn in August, the highest for five years, fuelling deficit worries ahead of the November budget.

Against this backdrop, the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell to 10-day lows near 1.3480 before stabilising around 1.3500.

GBP/USD Forecasts: UK Borrowing Worries Hammer Pound and Gilts

Sterling came under pressure after the latest public finance figures revealed a sharp jump in the deficit, extending the five-month shortfall to £83.8bn compared with £67.6bn a year earlier, and well above Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projections.

Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, was scathing:

“Sterling is rightly getting the treatment because the borrowing is a) too high, b) unsustainable, c) out of control and d) never going to change.”

The bond market reaction was swift. Ten-year gilt yields climbed to 4.70%, while 30-year yields jumped to 5.55%, edging back towards the 27-year highs hit earlier this month.

Analysts warned the move threatens to worsen the debt burden and intensify fiscal risks.

Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, warned;

“the task of getting the public finances back on track could be made much more difficult by a downgrade to the OBR’s very optimistic growth forecasts, leaving a £20bn hole in tax revenue.”

PwC economist Nabil Taleb added;

“Months of high borrowing and the political challenge of cutting spending have all but wiped out the chancellor’s headroom. The test will be whether she [Chancellor Reeves] can make them palatable to voters and markets.”

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially fell a bit against the Japanese yen but turned around to show signs of life. After the BOJ announcement, which really wasn’t much of an announcement, we are sitting right around the 200-day EMA, and we are in the middle of this consolidation area that we have been in for some time.

The 146 level on the bottom is support. The 149 level on the top is resistance. If we can break above the 149 yen level, then I think we really start to take off towards the 151 yen level. All things being equal, this is a market that I do think you favor the upside, not necessarily the downside, but we are still very bound.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar continues to fall and now looks a lot like the euro. Are we going to reenter the previous consolidation area? I don’t think it’s necessarily a market that you need to sell right away, but it certainly doesn’t look strong. We’ll just have to wait and see. The 0.67 level was important back in October of 2024 and it has shown itself to be important again. That being said, this is a market that I think is still one that you need to be a little bit cautious with, but ultimately, I am starting to become more neutral again, and this may have been just a bunch of noise. Again, I think the market will probably think about this over the weekend, and then we have to make a bigger move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• The USD/JPY price analysis shows increasing pressure within the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates.
• BoJ policymakers Hajime Takata and Naoki were ready to hike interest rates.
• The dollar continued its recovery after the Fed meeting.

The USD/JPY price analysis shows increasing pressure within the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates, which briefly boosted the yen on Friday. However, dollar strength after the expected Fed rate cut soon undid the gains in the yen.

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The Bank of Japan on Friday kept interest rates steady as expected. However, policymakers Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura voted against the move. Instead, they were ready to hike interest rates by 25-bps. The dissent came as a surprise to many and led to a rally in the yen.

“The dissent from Takata and Tamura highlights growing hawkish pressure inside the BOJ,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

“While the majority still favour a steady path, the presence of two board members voting against today’s decision suggests the debate is tilting toward quicker normalisation.”

However, the yen rally was brief, as the dollar continued its recovery after the Fed meeting. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged and signaled more to come. However, Powell also emphasized that they would keep monitoring inflation risks.

USD/JPY key events today

Traders are not looking forward to any key releases from Japan or the US. Therefore, they will keep absorbing policy decisions.

USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears give up after false breakout

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is back in its range after a false bearish breakout. It trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, suggesting bulls are currently in the lead. Therefore, the price will likely soon climb to retest the range resistance.

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USD/JPY has maintained its sideways move between the 146.50 support and the 149.00 resistance. However, bears recently attempted to break out of this consolidation. The price briefly dipped below the range support but was quickly rejected. As a result, it made a large bottom wick and pulled back into the range.

Afterwards, bulls took over by pushing the price above the 30-SMA. With bulls in the lead, the price will soon challenge the range resistance. If it holds firm, the sideways move will continue. On the other hand, a breakout would likely start a bullish trend.

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Platinum price remains under the effect of the sideways track, due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, especially by stochastic reach to 50 level, which forces it to delay the bullish attack and hold near the moving average 55 at $1382.00 level.

The stability of the price above the support at $1355.00 is important for confirming the continuation of the positivity, to keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum, to ease the mission of surpassing $1400.00 level, then begin recording the targets at $1422.00 and $1435.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1370.00 and $1422.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair formed new bullish rally, to record the initial extra target at 174.25, then bounced quickly to retest the breached barrier, which represents a new support at 173.40.

The suggested scenario depends on the stability of the current support, as the price stability makes us expect renewing the bullish attempts to target new positive stations that begin at 175.20, while facing negative pressures and reaching below this support will increase the chances for activating the bearish correctional track again, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching 172.80, followed by the support of the bullish channel at 171.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 173.40 and 175.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

• The GBP/USD outlook suggests mounting worries about the UK’s fiscal health.
• The UK public sector borrowed 83.8 billion pounds between April and August.
• The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold in the previous session.

The GBP/USD outlook suggests mounting worries about the UK’s fiscal health after data revealed a bigger-than-expected surge in public borrowing. Meanwhile, the dollar continued its recovery after the Fed cut rates as expected and said it would keep assessing inflation risks.

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Data on Friday revealed that the UK public sector borrowed 83.8 billion pounds between April and August. The figure beat forecasts by 11.4 billion and raised concerns about a growing debt burden. It also puts additional pressure on Finance Minister Rachel Reeves to create a budget that appeases investors.

“The pound has sunk on this data, and is testing support at $1.35. It is the second-worst performing currency in the G10 FX space today,” XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold in the previous session. The central bank is facing a difficult challenge of balancing growth and inflation, which remains too high.

On the other hand, the Fed lowered borrowing costs on Wednesday as expected, but maintained that it would keep assessing inflation risks. As a result, the dollar has recovered from its lows, further weighing on the pound.

GBP/USD key events today

Market participants do not expect any high-impact economic releases from the UK or the US. Therefore, they will keep digesting key policy decisions.

GBP/USD technical outlook: Bears take charge below 30-SMA

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades well below the 30-SMA with the RSI on the verge of dipping into the oversold region. The bearish bias strengthened after the price broke below the 30-SMA and the 1.3575 key support level. However, bears must confirm the new trend by respecting the 30-SMA as resistance.

The previous bullish trend had developed well, respecting the 30-SMA as support and making higher highs and lows. However, this changed when the price briefly punctured the 1.3701 resistance and was rejected. The large top wick was a sign that bears had gained momentum. They confirmed this by pushing below the 30-SMA.

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If the new downtrend continues, GBP/USD will get a chance to retest the 1.3350 support level. A break below this level would solidify the bearish bias.

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Created on September 19, 2025

• The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Thursday as we have broken above the 50 day EMA.
• The market is currently between the 200 day EMA and the 50 day EMA indicators. And it is in the middle of a consolidation area that has been very well defined.
• With the 146 yen level offering support and the 149 level above offering resistance, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of back and forth.

But keep in mind that we have the Bank of Japan meeting early on Friday, so pretty much anything’s possible. I believe at this point in time, this is a market that stays in this range, but you never know, the Japanese could do or say something that rattles the markets.

If We Break Out

If we can break above the 149 yen level, then the implied move is to the 152 yen level. But I do think that the 151 yen level probably offers a little bit of resistance as well based upon that huge wipeout candle that got us down into this range to begin with.

If we were to break down below the bottom of the hammer from the session on Wednesday, that would be an extraordinarily negative turn of events probably opening up a move to the 144 yen level. Ultimately though, you get paid to hang on to this pair to the upside, even though the FOMC cut rates. And that of course is something that people will have to keep in mind.

A lot of people are attracted to an investment opportunity. So, with all of that being said, I still lean to the upside here, but I recognize the next 24 hours probably are going to be noisy.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Fed Triggers EUR/USD Spike Before Sharp Reversal

The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25bp rate cut on Wednesday and signalled more easing ahead, but the dollar staged an impressive recovery from three-year lows.

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) briefly spiked above 1.1900 to hit fresh four-year highs before reversing sharply lower as US yields rebounded.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Euro Spikes Then Retreats

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1780 in early Europe on Thursday before clawing back to 1.1830.

ING noted;

“We suspect this reversal had more to do with positioning rather than a less dovish re-assessment of today’s communication from the Fed.”

UoB commented;

“Shorter-term upward momentum is starting to fade, but overall, as long as 1.1760 holds, there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for EUR to rise toward 1.1955. Today, we expect EUR to trade in a range between 1.1785 and 1.1865.”

Despite the pullback, many banks continue to forecast medium-term EUR/USD gains to 1.20.

The Fed cut rates to 4.25% in an 11–1 vote, with new governor Steve Miran dissenting in favour of a 50bp move. Bowman and Waller, who had opposed easing in July, supported the smaller cut this time.

The updated dot plot showed a median projection of two more cuts in 2025, though only a slim majority backed that view, with six policymakers seeing no further easing this year. The median also pencilled in two more cuts in 2026.

Chair Powell defended the decision as “insurance” against labour market weakness, stressing;
“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, but job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate has moved up somewhat.”

Powell also admitted the Fed faced “an uncomfortable balance” as inflation remains above target even as the jobs market softens.

Westpac’s Elliot Clarke highlighted the uncertainty;

“The revised forecasts highlighted the degree of uncertainty that remains over the outlook.”

Rabobank said;

“We now forecast another 25bp cut at the October 29 meeting and still see a terminal Fed Funds rate of 3.00%. The risk to our view is skewed to two more cuts this year over none, due to the rapidly deteriorating state of the U.S. labour market.”

ING added;

“A Fed formally shifting the risk on its dual mandate to the downside because of a softer jobs market and the expectation of two further rate cuts this year and a path to 3.00–3.25% for the policy rate do not look particularly dollar positive for us. And when the dust settles over coming days, we suspect the dollar could drift back to the lows of the year and now will prove hyper-sensitive to US labour market data.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts