Gold price bounces back toward record highs of $2,741 on tepid risk tone.
The US Dollar pulls back, as Treasury bond yields pause and earnings season unfold.
The daily RSI sits just above the overbought territory, further upside in the offing?
Gold price is picking up fresh bids to revert toward a new record high of $2,741 early Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) buyers catch their breath, assessing the ‘Trump trade’ while gearing up for the US earnings season.
Gold price remains at the mercy of the US Dollar
The Greenback pulls back from the highest level in nearly three months against its major rivals in Asian trading on Tuesday, as the US Treasury bond yields consolidate their previous rally. A pause in the US Dollar and the Treasury bond yield upsurge allow Gold buyers to find some foothold after Monday’s sharp reversal from the all-time peak.
A tepid risk tone, uncertainty around the US presidential election and the market’s caution heading into the key US earnings reports revive the demand for the traditional safe-haven Gold price. However, it remains to be seen whether the Gold price sustains its upswing and refreshes a lifetime high as Chinese equities buck the broad downtrend and advance on China’s recent stimulus efforts.
Further, increased expectations of less aggressive easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could also infuse fresh demand into the US Treasury bond yields and the USD, capping the bright metal’s bullish momentum.
On Monday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields spiked nearly 11 basis points (bps) and lifted the Greenback across the board, following the commentary from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.
Schmid said in his prepared remarks that “lowering rates in a gradual fashion would provide time to observe the economy’s reaction to our interest rate adjustments and give us the space to assess at what level interest rates are neither restricting nor boosting the economy.”
Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted late Monday that while she expects the Fed to continue slowly easing interest rates lower in the coming quarters, the Fed is still maintaining a data-dependent approach.
Against this backdrop, Gold price corrected sharply from a record high even though Wall Street indices tumbled, as investors resorted to profit-booking after recording their best performance last week.
Looking ahead, the US data docket remains dry and devoid of multiple speeches from Fed policymakers. Therefore, Gold traders will take cues from the broad market sentiment and any policies and trade developments from the three-day BRICS Summit, beginning on Tuesday.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price is looking to retest the record high of $2,741, as buyers fight back control.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing north while above the 70 level – the overbought zone. The leading indicator justifies the latest uptick in Gold price.
A firm break of the all-time high at $2,741 could challenge the rising trendline resistance at $2,746.
The next bullish target is seen at the $2,750 psychological barrier, which will likely be a tough nut to crack for Gold optimists.
Alternatively, the immediate support at $2,700, below which the October 18 low of $2,692 will be threatened.
A deeper correction could put the previous resistance now turned support at $2,670 to the test.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver price hit new highest since November 2012 on Monday, in extension of last Friday’s record daily rally of 6.4%, with psychological $34.00 barrier being cracked.
Increased safe haven demand dragged silver price, as geopolitical situation is overheated and markets pricing around 90% chance of Fed rate cut in November FOMC policy meeting.
Strong bullish signal has been generated on monthly chart after bulls eventually broke above key barriers at $30.00/50 (psychological / 50% retracement of $49.78/$11.23, 2011/2020 downtrend) which where the price was stuck for four months.
Firmly bullish daily studies continue to contribute to positive structure, underpinned by favorable fundamentals.
The price is currently riding on extended fifth wave of five wave sequence from $26.39 (Aug 8 low) with FE 161.8% (33.89) being cracked.
Close above this level to verify fresh signal and open way for attack at next targets at $35.00/05 (psychological / Fibo 61.8% of $49.78/$11.23) and $35.369 (FE 200%).
Meanwhile, bulls may take a breather under these barriers as daily studies are overbought, with limited dips to be ideally contained above $32.20 zone and to offer better buying opportunities.
Disclaimer: Opinions are our own and not financial or investment advice
A lot is written about gold and silver predictions, there is hardly any research on platinum predictions.
At jpost.com, we try to fill that gap by presenting readers with our platinum prediction research readout.
Table of contents
We look at the following topics in this article. Readers who are only interested in the specific platinum predictions for 2025, not in the research, may scroll down to the bottom to find our best case and base case platinum forecast 2025.
The importance of platinum as a physical metal
The importance of platinum as portfolio diversification
The role of platinum the precious metals universe
The platinum chart
The correlation between platinum and silver
Physical market supply/demand
Platinum prediction 2025 – summary
Platinum predictions 2025 by financial institutions
1. The importance of platinum as a physical metal
Platinum, a precious metal known for its luster and durability, is also a cornerstone of modern industry. Its unique properties and versatility make it indispensable in various applications.
Catalytic Properties:
Reduces harmful emissions in catalytic converters
Facilitates chemical reactions in industrial processes
Jewelry: Popular choice for its beauty and durability
Physical Properties:
High melting point
Malleable and ductile
Resistant to corrosion
Economic Value:
Highly sought-after metal due to its versatility and scarcity
Plays a vital role in driving innovation and economic growth
2. The importance of platinum as portfolio diversification
Platinum, a precious metal often overshadowed by its more well-known counterparts, gold and silver, offers unique investment opportunities due to its distinct characteristics and market dynamics. As a component of a diversified portfolio, platinum can provide several advantages:
1. Diversification Benefits:
Uncorrelated Returns: Platinum’s price movements often diverge from those of traditional assets like stocks and bonds, offering a potential hedge against market volatility.
Reduced Risk: By adding platinum to a portfolio, investors can spread their risk across different asset classes, mitigating the impact of potential losses in any single asset.
Enhanced Returns: Platinum’s price fluctuations can generate attractive returns, contributing to the overall performance of a diversified portfolio.
2. Precious Metals Synergy:
Complementary Exposure: Combining platinum with other precious metals, such as gold and silver, can provide a broader exposure to the precious metals market, capturing potential upside movements in different segments.
Risk Management: Strategically allocating investments across precious metals can help mitigate the impact of fluctuations in any individual metal’s price.
3. Long-Term Investment Potential:
Structural Demand: Platinum’s industrial applications, particularly in the automotive and electronics sectors, create a solid foundation for long-term demand.
Scarcity and Supply Constraints: The limited supply of platinum relative to its demand can support its price over the long term.
4. Tactical Allocation Strategy:
Buy on Dips: Consider adding platinum to your portfolio when its price falls to a historically significant support level, potentially offering a favorable entry point.
Gradual Accumulation: As platinum’s price appreciates, gradually increase your allocation to capture potential upside while managing risk.
5. Chart Analysis: A Long-Term Perspective
3. The role of platinum the precious metals universe
As we gain an understanding of the importance of having some exposure to physical platinum, we now pivot to platinum’s leading price indicators as well as intermarket dynamics.
Platinum, being one of the 4 precious metals, has a rather strong correlation with other precious metals, particularly gold and silver.
However, there are some specific things that investors should know about intermarket dynamics between platinum and the precious metals universe. This is critical, both from an investor perspective and also to set the expectations right for a platinum forecast for 2025.
Platinum positively correlated to gold and silver over a long period of time.
The correlation is not strong on a short timeframe, certainly not on a day-by-day basis.
Platinum tends to thrive when gold is in a long term bull market. It typically is a leveraged play on gold’s secular bull market.
Conversely, platinum tend to underperform gold when gold was going down (2013-2016).
The chart below, exhibiting all 4 precious metals, over a period of 30 years, helps us create a framework for a reasonable platinum prediction for 2025 and beyond.
Take-away – Platinum is expected to have a bullish bias in 2025 as gold’s bull market is now here to stay.
4. The platinum chart
The platinum price chart will ultimately have the answers for a reasonable platinum price prediction in 2025.
The platinum market is consolidating around the $1,000 mark for nearly 8 years. That’s remarkable.
What’s even more remarkable is the obvious falling trendline combined with ultra strong support around $800 on the platinum chart. Anyone can spot this, no PhD needed.
Chart-wise, platinum is creating what is called a bullish triangle:
Bullish triangles tend to consolidate for a long time, much longer than most investors can wait.
Whenever a bullish triangle resolve to the upside, it does so with a vengeance. Don’t want to miss those moves, and positioning when the market is quiet during the ‘boring’ consolidation is the easiest way to gain exposure (minimal headache, only patience required).
The invalidation point is simple and clear – horizontal support must hold to ensure a ‘good outcome’.
The bullish triangle on the platinum chart makes it very simple for investors – as long as $800 is respected, platinum is supposed to be working on a bullish resolution.
Now that is an important input into a 2025 platinum price prediction. Moreover, it looks also bright for investors that can exhibit patience.
Take-away – For as long as platinum respects support, the base case platinum prediction 2025 is a move to $1,200. Visibly, this chart suggests that whenever a breakout occurs, clearing the 16-year falling trendline, a quick move to $1,440 is the obvious outcome. Based on this chart, we consider $1,200 to be the base case platinum forecast for 2025, and $1,440 the best case prediction.
5. The correlation between platinum and silver
The platinum chart messages are clear – support at $800, first higher target $1,200 followed by $1,440 which where the real platinum market starts.
Now, let’s look at potential intermarket drivers, within the precious metals universe.
Based on our own research, it appears that platinum has the strongest correlation with silver.
The next chart, showing both platinum (candlesticks) and silver (line), over a period of 40 years, makes is it crystal clear – silver and platinum are strongly correlated.
What is absolutely crucial is the long term aspect of this intermarket dynamic – the chart shows a correlation over 40 years. Investors should not compare both silver and platinum on a day-by-day basis. Rather, it is a quarter-by-quarter comparison that should be applied to discover the correlation.
Essentially, the key question to resolve to understand whether intermarket dynamics will push platinum higher, is what silver will do.
This authority in silver forecasting has a high confidence level result from this research – silver is set to move higher in 2025. The research underpinning this bullish silver prediction is based on lots of data points, but it also considers a variety of angles.
Take-away – It is fair to say that silver is set to move higher, creating bullish intermarket dynamics for platinum. This increases confidence is a sustained move higher in platinum in the coming years. The $1,200 platinum price prediction for 2025 is rightfully a base case prediction, and the best case forecast of $1,440 is likely a reasonable platinum target either in 2025 or 2026, provided $800 holds strong.
Their latest research suggests that platinum is entering a period with supply deficit.
This should sound like music in the ears of smart investors, looking to pick up physical platinum at discounted prices, around $1,000.
Below is the platinum market prediction for 2025 and beyond, particularly physical demand and supply data, on aggregate level.
Visibly, 2023 and 2024 are pivotal years for platinum. Equally important is the adjusted forecast by the WPIC, as seen below, suggesting even tighter physical market conditions in 2025 and beyond (compared to their previous forecast).
It seems like there is a trend – a sustained supply deficit in the physical platinum market.
7. Platinum price prediction 2025 – a summary
Now, let’s combine the data points we presented in this research:
The physical platinum market is entering a longer period of supply deficit. This should be a catalyst for higher platinum prices, likely even a platinum bull market.
Precious metals intermarket dynamics: the long term gold bull market is expected to be here to stay. This should support both silver and platinum to move higher, directionally, in 2025 and beyond, for as long as gold continues its uptrend.
Platinum is strongly correlated to silver. While silver has moved up strongly in 2024, platinum has been flat, starting to turn higher. Platinum seems to be supported by silver, with platinum still a bargain in relative terms (for as long as it respects $800 as support).
All of the above are visible on the platinum price charts:
The triangle on platinum’s secular chart has a strong bullish character.
Platinum is slowly but surely turning higher, reflecting the intermarket and physical market dynamics discussed above.
Because of this, it is fair to say that the $1,200 platinum price prediction for 2025 is a base case prediction, likely even a conservative prediction.
The best case platinum price forecast for 2025 and 2026 is $1,440 followed by $1,800.
8. Platinum predictions 2025 by financial institutions
So far, among financial institutions, only ANZ Research has published a platinum prediction for 2025. ANZ Research expects platinum to rise to $1,273/oz in 2025.
Their platinum prediction sits somewhere in-between our price targets, so it’s fair to say that it seems a rather conservative target, based on the data at hand at the time of writing.
Over time, we plan to add more platinum price predictions of financial institutions as more of them decide to publish their annual platinum forecast.
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This article is for informational purposes only. The opinions and analysis herein are those of the author and are not financial advice. The Jerusalem Post (JPost.com) does not endorse or recommend any investments based on this information. Investors should consider their financial situation, investment goals, and risk tolerance before making any decisions. Consulting a qualified financial advisor is recommended. JPost.com is not liable for any investment losses from using this information. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as trading or investment advice.
Silver price posts a fresh high above 34.00 on multiple tailwinds.
The white metal gains on the fresh escalation in the Middle East war and US presidential election uncertainty.
The Fed is expected to reduce interest rates moderately.
Silver price (XAG/USD) jumps above $34.00 in Monday’s North American session for the first time in almost 12 years. The white metal strengthens on multiple tailwinds: continuing war between Israel and Iran, and growing uncertainty over United States (US) presidential elections.
Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran’s attack on October 1, as shown by leaked documents originating from the National Security Agency (NSA) and the Geospatial Intelligence Agency (GEOIN), which was authenticated by a US official, reported by The New York Times. The scenario of escalating geopolitical tensions improves the appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, as a safe haven.
The Silver’s safe-haven appeal has also been strengthened by neck-to-neck competition between US Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump for presidential elections on November 5.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) bounces back strongly after a mild correction on expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy-easing spell will be moderate in the remainder of the year. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, aims to recapture the 11-week high around 104.00.
Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the United States (US) flash S&P Global PMI data for October, which will be published on Thursday.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price strengthens after a breakout above the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe. Upward-sloping 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $30.70 and $31.70, respectively, signals more upside ahead.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Looming US elections and Middle East tensions push investors into the US Dollar.
Treasury yields surged in a risk-averse environment and ahead of earnings reports.
XAU/USD reached $2,740 and retreated, but bulls are not yet done.
Spot Gold keeps reaching record highs on a daily basis, trading as high as $2,740.42, before retreating after Wall Street’s opening. The US Dollar gathered momentum alongside government bond yields as looming United States (US) elections fuel demand for safe-haven assets. According to the latest Washington Post poll, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate and Kamala Harris, the Democratic one, are still virtually tied in the seven key states.
However, there are different polls showing that former President Trump outperforms Vice-president Harris in key matters such as the economy, inflation, and immigration. A Trump victory would mean quite a different scenario, with more taxes and restrictions that could negatively affect inflation and, hence, push the Federal Reserve (Fed) away from the current monetary loosening path. The uncertainty is high three weeks ahead of elections, explaining resurgent bonds demand.
In the meantime, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further support the USD. Israel launched airstrikes across Lebanon overnight, targeting Hezbollah’s financial operations, as reported by local authorities. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz noted: “We will keep striking the Iranian proxy until it collapses,” cooling down hopes for a potential cease-fire.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the risk remains skewed to the upside. The pair develops above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $2,660. The Momentum indicator lost its upward strength but holds near its October high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned directionless at around 72, suggesting receding buying interest.
XAU/USD has corrected extreme overbought conditions in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows technical indicators turning flat after retreating from multi-week peaks, still holding well above their midlines and suggesting buyers have paused yet not given up. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, keeps advancing below the current level while above the 100 and 200 SMAs, in line with the dominant bullish trend.
Coffee price forecast 20/10/2024: Increasing pressure from international market and domestic weather concerns Coffee price forecast 21/10/2024: Market fluctuates, positive sign for coffee growers
According to experts, the increase in USD and the strong short buying volume on the two exchanges pushed up coffee prices. world has been decreasing continuously in recent weeks. This week, coffee continues to be under pressure from new crop supply in Vietnam. Domestically, many localities have entered the new crop coffee harvest.
Many experts predict that coffee prices on October 22, 10 will continue to increase slightly in many localities across the country. After the increase at the beginning of the week, domestic coffee prices are expected to continue to increase due to the influence of the world market and the stable trend of supply and demand.
Recorded in the trading session on October 21, 10, domestic coffee prices today increased by 2024 VND/kg to between 100 – 111.200. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 111.800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong is 111.8100 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 111.600 VND stable compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 111.500 VND/kg. In the province Kon Tum at 111.600 VND, unchanged from yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at 111.800 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
Coffee price forecast October 22, 10: Will the slight upward trend continue?
Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 111.200 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
Coffee prices today (April 21) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at about 111.600 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 111.500 VND/kg.
Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 21, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, down 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.
London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com
The delivery term for January 1 is 2025 USD/ton, down 4.484 USD; the delivery term for March 131 is 3 USD/ton, down 2025 USD and the delivery term for May 4.391 is 121 USD/ton, down 5 USD.
New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)
In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 21, 10 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 243.85 cents/lb.
Specifically, the December 12 delivery period is 2024 cents/lb; down 250.80 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 6.50 delivery period is 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb; the May 249.65 delivery period is 6.35 cents/lb, down 5 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 247.60 cents/lb, down 6.45 cents/lb.
Brazilian Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on September 21, 10 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 300.00 is 2.31 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 301.50 USD/ton, up 2.19% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 311.90%.
Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.
Vietnam is gearing up for a new coffee harvest. However, according to a Reuters survey, Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year could fall by up to 10% due to the impact of the worst drought in a decade, which lasted from March to early May.
Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange, said that the drought had severely damaged coffee trees, leading to a sharp drop in output, even though rain returned in May.
Trinh Duc Minh, chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, forecasts that coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year could fall by 5,4%. Meanwhile, traders in Europe predict a smaller decline of about 3,4%, but still enough to raise concerns about a global robusta shortage.
*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality
Gold price consolidates near fresh record highs of $2,729 ahead of Fedspeak.
The US Dollar extends its corrective decline, as Treasury bond yields recovery falters.
The daily RSI holds within the overbought territory, a correction in the offing?
The gold price is holding the renewed upside near a fresh record high of $2,729 early Monday. Gold buyers take a breather amid rife Middle East tensions and the uncertainty around the US presidential election, awaiting a fresh trading impetus from the upcoming speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers.
Gold price appears vulnerable, as Fedspeak loom
The US Dollar (USD) maintains its corrective mode intact, tracking the renewed weakness in the US Treasury bond yields, as Chinese stocks recover ground after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) delivered a bigger-than-expected cut to the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.35% to 3.10%.
Markets were unimpressed in an initial reaction to the PBOC policy announcements but they now remain expectant of more stimulus coming in from China to support the economic growth. Meanwhile, China’s stimulus optimism alongside the persistent tensions between Israel and Iran kept the Gold price underpinned.
According to Lebanese media outlets, Israel carried out a new wave of air strikes on southern Beirut after it announced the targeting of Hezbollah’s al-Qard al-Hassan financial institution’s offices. Additionally, The US government has launched an investigation into the unauthorized release of classified documents detailing Israel’s military preparations for a potential strike on Iran. Investors prefer to flock to safety in the traditional safe-haven Gold price, in times of geopolitical turmoil.
However, the US Dollar could see resurgent demand on the revival of the ‘Trump rally’. Markets seem optimistic that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the 2024 US presidential elections. Trump’s fiscal and trade policies are seen as inflationary and positive for the Greenback.
In the absence of top-tier US economic data releases due on Monday, the focus will remain on risk sentiment and the speeches from several Fed policymakers for a fresh directional impetus to Gold price.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price challenged the $2,730 level on the renewed upside this Monday.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flattish while holding above the 70 level – the overbought zone.
This suggests that buyers are facing exhaustion and that a pullback could be in the offing.
The immediate support, therefore, is seen at Friday’s low of $2,692, below which a drop toward the previous resistance now turned support at $2,670 cannot be ruled out.
A sustained break below that level will expose sellers to the key 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support at $2,653.
On the other hand, if Gold buyers manage to take out the $2,730 round level, a test of the $2,750 psychological barrier will be inevitable.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver price receives support from safe-haven flows amid rising Middle-East tensions.
Israel targeted the offices of Hezbollah’s al-Qard al-Hassan financial institution in southern Beirut.
The non-yielding Silver gains ground due to easing monetary policies from major central banks.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around $34.10 during the Asian session on Monday. This upward trend is driven by safe-haven demand amidst escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Lebanese media report that Israel has launched a new series of airstrikes on southern Beirut, targeting the offices of Hezbollah’s al-Qard al-Hassan financial institution. Furthermore, the US government has initiated an investigation into the unauthorized release of classified documents that outline Israel’s military preparations for a potential strike on Iran.
Furthermore, easing monetary policies from major central banks are bolstering non-yielding Silver prices. On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reduced the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.35% to 3.10% and the 5-year LPR from 3.85% to 3.60%. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) also opted to cut its interest rates by 25 basis points.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to implement a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Recent inflation data suggests that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may consider potential rate cuts next month. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2024.
Regarding the US elections, markets appear optimistic about Republican nominee Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election. Trump’s fiscal and trade policies are viewed as inflationary and favorable for the US Dollar (USD), which could negatively impact Silver demand. A stronger US Dollar makes Silver more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies, potentially dampening their purchasing power.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold price gains momentum to near $2,720 in Monday’s early Asian session.
Uncertainty surrounding the US election and geopolitical risks prompted higher demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.
The fear of a Chinese economic slowdown could weigh on the XAU/USD.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside to around $2,720 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uncertainty surrounding tensions in the Middle East and the US presidential election boosts the safe haven flows.
The uptick in the precious metal is bolstered by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, uncertainties around the US elections and easing monetary policy expectations from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With the conflict intensifying – particularly following Hezbollah’s announcement to escalate the war with Israel – investors are flocking to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset,” noted Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany. “Adding to the momentum, concerns around the U.S. presidential election and anticipation of looser monetary policies have further fuelled the rally,” Zumpfe added.
Furthermore, the prospects of further Fed rate cuts continue to underpin the Gold price. The US central bank lowered its interest rates for the first time in more than four years in the September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of an additional quarter-point rate cut in November stand at more than 90%. Lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, lifting the Gold price.
On the other hand, China’s sluggish economy could undermine the precious metal. China’s economy grew in the third quarter (Q3) at the slowest pace since early last year. The National Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday that the GDP expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 versus 4.7% prior. This figure was below the government’s “around 5%” target for this year. This, in turn, might weigh on the yellow metal as China is the world’s largest gold consumer.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The coffee market has been experiencing complex fluctuations in recent days, with both supporting and negative factors affecting prices. In that context, the forecast of coffee prices tomorrow, October 20, 10, is attracting the attention of investors and farmers. Below is reference information about the market situation and forecast of coffee prices tomorrow, and at the same time, comments on price prospects in the coming time.
At the end of the trading session on October 19, 10, Robusta coffee prices on the London floor increased sharply, with an increase from 2024 USD/ton to 17 USD/ton. This shows that the demand for Robusta coffee is increasing in the international market, especially from the Chinese market and European countries. Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor also recorded a significant increase in the trading session on October 26, 19, with an increase from 10% to 2024%, reflecting the general optimism about the demand for Arabica coffee.
Coffee price forecast October 20, 10: Increasing pressure from international markets and domestic weather concerns.
However, Brazilian Arabica coffee prices recorded mixed increases and decreases, with December 12 and March 2024 delivery terms decreasing, while May 3 and July 2025 delivery terms increasing. This shows the differentiation in demand for Brazilian Arabica coffee, possibly due to weather factors or trade policies.
Meanwhile, the domestic coffee market has been moving in the opposite direction to the international market. On October 19, 10, domestic coffee prices fell sharply, with an average decrease of VND 2024/kg. The main reason is believed to be the impact of the weather. Information from the Department of Industry and Trade Gia Lai said that continuous rain is expected to hit the Central Highlands this weekend and into the new week, which could affect the progress of the new coffee harvest. This is the time when the largest producer of Robusta coffee world The new coffee harvest is scheduled to start between October 10 and September 2024. Traditionally, people expect rain to stop around this time to facilitate harvesting.
In addition to weather factors, domestic coffee prices are also affected by policy. The Council of the European Union has announced an agreement to postpone the implementation date of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). This could put pressure on coffee prices in the long term, as the EUDR will require coffee exporters to prove that their coffee has not been linked to deforestation.
Based on the above analysis, it can be predicted that Robusta coffee prices will continue to increase slightly tomorrow, October 20, 10, due to high demand and the market’s expectation of a delay in the implementation of the EUDR. Arabica coffee prices may also increase slightly, but the increase will be lower than that of Robusta. However, due to the impact of rain, domestic coffee prices may decrease slightly tomorrow, but the decrease will not be significant.
However, it should be noted that coffee price forecasts are for reference only and may change depending on market developments. Investors and farmers should closely monitor information on the coffee market to make appropriate investment decisions.
In the coming time, the coffee market will continue to face many challenges and opportunities. Global coffee consumption is expected to continue to increase, due to the economic development of emerging countries and the increasing popularity of coffee consumption. However, the market also faces risks from climate change, epidemics and trade policies.
To ensure stability and sustainable development for the coffee market, coffee producing countries need to coordinate with each other to respond to challenges and maximize opportunities. Investors and farmers need to proactively update market information and develop appropriate business strategies.
