Copper price began today’s trading with a new positivity by surpassing the barrier at $4.6600, announcing its readiness to activate the bullish track in the current period, the unionism of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will reinforce the chances for achieving several gains, to reach the initial target at $4.7500, to press on 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100.

Note that activating the negative track requires forming a sharp decline, to settle below $4.5000 level, to confirm targeting several negative stations that begin at $4.4300 and $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6100 and $4.7500

Trend forecast: Bullish

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has dropped a bit, a little bit, during the very early hours on Friday, as we continue to see the cyclical trade come into the picture. After all, heating is a major driver of where natural gas goes, as far as price is concerned. And now that there’s not as much need for heat, it makes sense that natural gas in fact drops in value. We are not quite to the time of year when we see the demand for AC pick up, at least not for a few months. So really, we’re in that quiet period where we get the initial bounce, from refilling storage in the US. And now that it’s done, you see the market dropping again, as the demand simply cannot keep up.

At this point, it’s likely that the market is going to go to the $3 level, possibly even $2.83, where we bounced from the last drop. At this point though, I think any rally that shows signs of exhaustion is a selling opportunity, and I’d be a bit surprised to see us break back above the 50-day EMA. If we were to drop below that crucial $2.83 level, then I think that opens up the trapdoor and we could go as low as $2.50 rather quickly. I have no interest in buying natural gas. I simply fade it this time of year, every time it gets a little bit of a pop. This is a very bearish market and should continue to be going forward.

• Silver price oscillates inside Thursday’s range around $33.00 despite significant weakness in the US Dollar.
• Heightened concerns over US fiscal imbalances have kept the US Dollar on the backfoot.
• A fresh escalation in the US-EU trade tensions is expected to support the Silver price.

Silver price (XAG/USD) wobbles in a tight range around $33.00 during North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal remains almost flat despite a substantial weakness in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, refreshes an over three-week low around 99.10.

Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a value bet for investors.

The US Dollar continues to suffer from increasing concerns over the United States (US) fiscal imbalances in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill, which has been advanced to the Senate after being approved by the House of Representatives.

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, Trump’s new bill would increase the US debt by $3.8 trillion over the decade, which is currently $36.2 trillion. Such a scenario would further damage the US Sovereign credit rating, which was already downgraded by Moody’s to Aa1 from Aaa last week.

Meanwhile, a fresh escalation in trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) is expected to support the Silver price. Theoretically, the demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver, increases when global economic tensions escalate.

During early North American trading hours, US President Trump threatened to impose 50% flat tariffs on the EU in a post on Truth.Social. Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”, Trump said

Silver technical analysis

Silver price oscillates inside Thursday’s trading range around $33.00 on Friday. The white metal trades in a range between $31.65 and $33.70 for a month. The near-term trend of the white metal is uncertain as it wobbles around the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $32.75.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart

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Copper price began today’s trading with a new positivity by surpassing the barrier at $4.6600, announcing its readiness to activate the bullish track in the current period, the unionism of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will reinforce the chances for achieving several gains, to reach the initial target at $4.7500, to press on 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100.

Note that activating the negative track requires forming a sharp decline, to settle below $4.5000 level, to confirm targeting several negative stations that begin at $4.4300 and $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6100 and $4.7500

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair succeeded to surpass the negative pressures after facing the moving average 55, which formed extra support at 192.10, forming some bullish waves and its stability near 193.30 to increase the chances for activating the previously waited bullish attack.

By the above image, we notice stochastic rally above 20 level, to reinforce the chances for gaining the positive momentum, to keep our bullish expectations to target 194.60 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 192.60 and 194.60

Trend forecast: Bullish

20-Day MA Holds as Support

If the 20-Day line can continue to show as support, then gold may have a chance to go a little higher towards the next target around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,371. Since that price level is currently aligned with the convergence of two trendlines, there remains a possibility that it is touched before the current advance from trendline support reached last week is complete. Moreover, the convergence suggests a key pivot level where an upside-breakout could be followed by a move as demand kicks in.

Advance Stalls

A decline below today’s low shows short-term weakness and could lead to a test of support around $3,252. Further down is the 50-Day MA, now at $3,191. Along with the lower trendline the 50-Day MA marks potential dynamic support for the uptrend. The current upswing began following the November 2024 lows following a failed upside breakout of a rising trend channel (blue) on April 11. It reestablishes the integrity of the trend and therefore the possibility of a continuation higher. Subsequently, as long as gold trades above the 50-Day MA, the market is indicating it is prepared to go higher. Also, since the 20-Day MA is being recognized, it provides a shorter-term indicator for strength or weakness.

Weekly Closing Will Provide Clue

It is interesting to note that the two previous weekly upside breakouts failed, and each week ended with the price of gold below the prior week’s high. In other words, the weekly breakouts were not confirmed. A third weekly breakout occurred this week. The breakout will be confirmed by a weekly closing price above last week’s high of $3,292. One way to think about it is if the breakout confirms the chance of at least reaching the $3,371 price area improves. If this week ends below last week’s high, consolidation within the declining channel may prevail.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude oil prices are expected to trade with a downward bias throughout 2025, according to a new report by ICICI Bank. The bank has significantly lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for the year, citing a combination of rising global supply and subdued demand. Brent prices are now projected to remain in the range of $60 to $70 per barrel, with a potential dip to as low as $55 per barrel if bearish trends persist.

This marks a substantial downward revision from ICICI Bank’s previous forecast of $65 to $80 per barrel. The bank now estimates that the average price of Brent crude in 2025 will be around $65, compared to an earlier projection of $72 per barrel.
The primary driver behind this revised outlook is an anticipated net supply surplus of 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) over the course of the year. This surplus stems from a combination of sluggish global demand growth and increased oil production from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries. The report notes that this marks a clear transition from the conditions seen in 2024, when the market was grappling with a supply deficit during the same period.

ICICI Bank highlights that historically, a surplus in global oil supply tends to exert downward pressure on prices, and early data from March and April 2025 already points to this trend taking shape. The bank warns that unless there is a significant geopolitical disruption—such as tensions escalating in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran—or a strong demand recovery driven by Chinese economic stimulus, oil prices are unlikely to rebound meaningfully.
“In the absence of major supply shocks or demand accelerators, crude prices are expected to remain subdued for the rest of the year,” the report stated.

With global oil markets shifting into a phase of oversupply and demand staying weak, ICICI Bank believes the crude oil market is entering a transitional phase, and 2025 could witness persistently low oil prices unless the balance shifts significantly. The bank’s assessment underscores growing concerns among analysts about a prolonged period of pressure in the energy sector.

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• Silver price advances due to rising safe-haven demand amid growing US fiscal concerns.
• The safe-haven demand increases amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• Ukraine will ask the European Union to seize Russian assets after President Trump pulled back from tightening sanctions.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rises to near $32.60 per troy ounce during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, gaining ground for the third successive session. Precious metals, including Silver, attract buyers amid rising safe-haven demand over growing fiscal concerns in the United States (US).

Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, following similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s also predicted that US federal debt is expected to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.

Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical unrest in the Middle East dampens the risk sentiment and drives investors toward safe-haven assets like Silver. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would charge ahead with a military campaign to gain total control of Gaza, in the event of, failure of the return of hostages. Reuters cited the Israeli military as saying to let 100 aid trucks into the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, as UN officials reported that distribution issues had meant that no aid had so far reached people in need.

Next week, Ukraine is set to ask the European Union (EU) to seize Russian assets and put sanctions on some buyers of Russian Oil. As President Trump backed off from tightening sanctions, Ukraine will present an unreported white paper to the EU, asking 27-member countries to take an independent position on sanctions.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,298.25

• Upbeat S&P Global May PMIs helped the US Dollar during US trading hours.
• Wall Street trades in the green, but holds on to weekly losses.
• XAU/USD lost some upward steam, but the downside remains well-limited.

Spot Gold trades around the $3,300 mark, down from an early peak of $3,345.48. The US Dollar (USD) traded mixed across the FX board throughout the first half of the day, retaining the negative bias amid persistent concerns. Asian and European indexes closed in the red, reflecting the dismal mood.

The Greenback, however, found near-term support on upbeat United States (US) data. S&P Global released the flash estimate of the May Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which showed manufacturing output improved to 52.3 from 50.2 in April, while the Services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8 in the same period. As a result, the Composite PMI surged to 52.1 after posting 50.6 in April, a two-month high.

Wall Street recovered some of the ground lost in the previous sessions, holding on to the green on a daily basis, albeit down for the week. Concerns about the US President Donald Trump’s tax bill and tariffs’ effects on economic growth were partially offset by data, yet remain in the background.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it posted a higher high and a lower low, but buyers keep defending the downside at around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing support at around $3,288.00. The same chart shows that the 100 and 200 SMAs keep grinding north far below the current level, in line with the dominant bullish trend. Finally, technical indicators lost their bullish strength, but turned flat within positive levels, limiting the odds for a steeper decline.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, Gold lost upward steam, but there are no signs it could fall further. The XAU/USD pair keeps trading above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA crossing above directionless 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, aim lower, although with limited strength and still holding above their midlines.

Support levels: 3,289.20 3,271.55 3,252.40

Resistance levels: 3,325.00 3,345.50 3,358.40