Bullish Price Action

Today’s bullish price action represents a likely completion to the short three-day consolidation that followed Monday’s strong advance. It puts natural gas in a position to again challenge a resistance zone that was tested during four of the past five weeks. It is identified by weekly highs from $3.82 to $3.84 (B). The high price was the most recent swing high that led to a pullback. This behavior shows strong resistance. But if it is broken to the upside, a trend continuation signal is triggered and the continuation of the rising ABCD pattern, measured from the April low (A).

Signs of Strength

Nonetheless, since there have been signs of strong resistance and there is a large consolidation range above (head and shoulders top), until there is a decisive upside breakout there remains a risk that a bearish reversal could occur. Currently, that possibility would become more likely on a decline below today’s low. An initial potential support zone is at $3.52 currently, which is the convergence of the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs, therefore adding significance to the price zone.

Bull Breakout Above $3.84

Nonetheless, if an upside breakout triggers above $3.84, the next decision point looks to be an upside target zone from $4.08 to $4.12, consisting of the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, respectively. Since the two levels are relatively close together, they could act like a magnet for price following a confirmed upside breakout. Confirmation would occur on a daily close above the price level.

Trend Points to Higher Prices

Notice that a swing low of $2.86 was established at the end of the bearish correction that followed the trend high of $4.90 in March. The subsequent advance from that low established a higher angle of ascent for the long-term trend, relative to the lower purple trendline that connects to the August 2024 swing low. This shows improving momentum and is supportive of a potential bull breakout and move for the price of natural gas.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Copper price formed temporary negative rebound after reaching $5.01000 level and recording the waited targets, to fluctuate near 38.1%Fiboancci correctional level at $4.8900.

The current negative rebound won’t represent any threat to the chances of resuming the bullish attack, as there are several bullish factors such as forming a new support at $4.8000 level, to provide the positive momentum for the main indicators, therefore, we will keep waiting for renewing the bullish attempts to target $5.0300 level reaching $5.1000 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.8500 and $5.030

Trend forecast: Bullish

• US NFP labor report eases expectations of a Fed rate cut, pushing XAU/USD prices lower.
• USD receives a boost from easing US-China tensions and better-than-expected US employment data on Friday, capping Gold gains.
• Gold prices threaten channel support with psychological resistance at $3,350.

Gold prices are extending losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, falling below prior psychological support, now resistance, at $3,350, after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a resilient labour market.

After a week of data suggesting a softening US labor market, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May surprised to the upside. The US economy added 139,000 new jobs, beating analysts’ expectations of a 130,000 increase.

Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, offering a mixed but slightly more optimistic view of labor market conditions. The stronger-than-expected headline figure has provided temporary relief for the US Dollar, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to act quickly with rate cuts. However, underlying softness in other employment metrics earlier in the week continues to warrant caution in the broader policy outlook.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a July rate cut has dropped sharply to 16.5%, down from 33.9% prior to the release. The data has temporarily eased pressure on the Fed to act swiftly, suggesting that policymakers may adopt a more patient stance in the near term.

Trade and tariff developments continue to sway Gold prices

Although Thursday’s phone call between Chinese and US presidents helped ease immediate fears of an escalating trade war, tariff uncertainties and broader trade tensions remain a key concern for global investors.

The US decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, which was enforced on Wednesday, has drawn sharp criticism from key trade partners, including India, Canada, the European Union and Mexico, all of whom have threatened retaliatory measures.

With trade negotiations expected to continue into next week, the risk of prolonged disputes looms. Should talks break down or tensions escalate further, the global economy could face renewed headwinds, potentially weakening equity markets and driving demand for safe-haven assets such as Gold.

Gold daily digest: Trade talks, interest rates, and the economic outlook

• Ongoing trade discussions between the US and China are providing an additional headwind for Gold prices as trade talks remain in focus. 
• Following the positive phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, they agreed to restart high-level economic talks. The agenda includes resolving tariff disputes and improving relations, but there’s skepticism among investors about how much progress will be made. 
• Economic data released from the Eurozone on Friday shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded analyst forecasts for the first quarter on both a monthly and annual basis. GDP grew by 0.6% QoQ, exceeding estimates of 0.4%. YoY figures showed a 1.5% rise, which was also above the estimated 1.2%.
• Eurozone’s Retail Sales rose by 2.3% YoY, above the 1.4% estimate, while the monthly reading was in line with expectations of a 0.1% rise.
• On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), a move that was already priced into the market. ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested that the rate-easing cycle may be nearing its end in the short term. 
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged within the current 4.25% to 4.50% range at the June 18 meeting. 
• The ADP Employment report, which was released on Wednesday, disappointed to the downside, with the private sector adding 37,000 jobs in May, below analyst expectations of a 115,000 increase.
• Thursday’s Jobless Claims data also provided signs of a slowdown in the strength of the US labour situation, with Initial Claims rising to 247,000 last week, above analyst estimates of a 235,000 rise.

Gold prices move below critical psychological support at $3,350

Gold has broken below the $3,350 psychological level of support on Friday, with prices testing $3,330 at the time of writing. With prices still confined to a narrow range that has been building over the past four days, the whipsaw price action and broader geopolitical developments leave Gold prices vulnerable to any fundamental shifts that could impact the direction of prices next week.

With the $3,350 level now providing near-term resistance, short-term support is seen at the $3,300 psychological level, resting just above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,291.

The pullback in prices has also pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lower, with a reading of 52 suggesting that bulls may be losing steam.

For the upside to prevail, a move above $3,350 and above the $3,370, which provided resistance for Friday’s move, could see prices recover, bringing the $3,400 psychological level back into play.

Gold daily chart

For an upside move, the Gold price has a few technical hurdles to clear. The $3,392 resistance level has limited the bullish potential throughout the week, followed by the $3,400 psychological level. If bulls clear this zone and bullish momentum gains traction, a move toward the April all-time high at $3,500 may be possible.

The GBPJPY pair renewed the bullish attempts by its rally above 194.55 level, attempting to confirm the suggested bullish scenario, achieving some gains by hitting 195.30 level.

Note that the beginning of providing positive momentum will reinforce the chances for forming strong bullish waves, to expect attacking 195.70 level, and surpassing it will make it target new bullish stations, by reaching 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at 197.35, while the decline below 194.00 will force it to delay the rise and provide mixed trading again.

The expected trading range for today is between 194.45 and 195.70

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price formed temporary negative rebound after reaching $5.01000 level and recording the waited targets, to fluctuate near 38.1%Fiboancci correctional level at $4.8900.

The current negative rebound won’t represent any threat to the chances of resuming the bullish attack, as there are several bullish factors such as forming a new support at $4.8000 level, to provide the positive momentum for the main indicators, therefore, we will keep waiting for renewing the bullish attempts to target $5.0300 level reaching $5.1000 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.8500 and $5.030

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver prices maintain their bid tone, favoured by a weak USD..
• Weak US services and employment figures boosted safe-haven demand on Wednesday.
• XAG/USD is moving within a small ascending triangle, a bullish sign.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) maintain their bullish structure intact, with bulls aiming for the $34.60-$34.80 resistance area, with downside attempts contained above the $34.00 support level.

A US Dollar on its back foot is contributing to keeping the precious metal buoyed. US ISM Services PMI data showed an unexpected contraction in the sector’s activity in May, and the ADP Employment report posted a poor increase in payrolls, which revived fears of an economic recession.

Beyond that, the global trade scenario remains highly uncertain. The negotiations between the US and its trade partners are failing to yield any significant breakthrough, and Trump has complained about the difficulties of cutting a deal with China’s President, Xi, revealing that the world’s two major economies are far from reaching a trade agreement.

XAG/USD is showing an ascending triangle pattern

The technical picture shows a bullish structure in place, from mid-May lows at $31.75, with price action testing the top of an ascending triangle pattern, which points to an eventual bullish outcome.

Prices are about to test the top of the triangle, at the lower limit of the $34.60-34-80 resistance area, which has been holding the pair over the last few days. Above here, a 261.8% Fibonacci extension awaits at the $36.10 area.

On the downside, a breach of $34.00 would invalidate this view, and add pressure towards the previous top, at $33.65 ahead of the $32.70 level.

XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart

WTI oil prices are set to average $58.30 per barrel this year, amid rising OPEC+ and U.S. production and relatively stable global oil demand, a survey of banks by law firm Haynes Boone showed on Wednesday.

A total of 28 banks – a record high number – participated in Haynes Boone’s Spring 2025 Energy Bank Price Deck Survey, now in its 12^th year. The banks on average expect WTI Crude prices to average $58.30 per barrel in 2025, down from $61.89 a barrel expected in Haynes Boone’s Fall 2024 survey.

The banks’ reduction of the forecast could be explained with the $10 a barrel price slump in April, the law firm said.

The Spring 2025 survey shows about a $1.50 a barrel decrease in year-to-year projected prices compared to the Fall 2024 survey, but follows a similar path with average oil prices remaining in the $56.24–$57.24 per barrel range through 2034.

“This general decrease in oil prices may be attributable to increased production volume expectations stemming from enhanced OPEC production and the Trump administration’s pro-production and deregulation agenda, interacting with relatively unchanged global oil demand forecasts,” Haynes Boone said.

Banks are unmoved by the short-term U.S. trade policy and other noise factors and prefer to focus on market fundamentals, according to the law firm.

“The drop in April had to be factored in, but banks are not letting short-term volatility drive their long-term thinking,” Energy Practice Group Partner Kim Mai said.

“The results suggest that banks believe the underlying supply-demand dynamics will generally rebalance over time. It’s a vote of confidence in market fundamentals during a volatile policy environment.”

Moreover, the banks’ price deck “is always a little bit lower than market prices because banks are conservative in their projections,” Mai told Bloomberg, commenting on the survey.

Early on Wednesday, WTI prices were trading at around $63 per barrel, which is about the same as the breakeven price for drilling a new well for many U.S. shale producers.

U.S. shale production will likely plateau if WTI oil prices remain in the low $60s per barrel, and decline at prices in the $50s, ConocoPhillips chairman and CEO Ryan Lance said last month.

Executives said in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in Q1 indicated that their companies need an average $65 per barrel to profitably drill a new well.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Dollar Rebounds While Gold Eyes $3,400 Break

The U.S. dollar rebounded from six-week lows reached on Thursday, as traders adjusted their positions ahead of high-impact macroeconomic data. The Dollar Index (DXY) climbed toward 104.15, supported by improving sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.

This modest rebound capped gold’s upside momentum, keeping prices below the psychologically important $3,400 level.

“Until gold closes decisively above $3,400, bulls may remain hesitant,” said David Lennox, a market strategist at Fat Prophets. “The market is looking for confirmation that inflation and labor weakness will force the Fed’s hand.”

Fed Rate Cut Bets Hinge on Job Growth Slowdown

The spotlight now shifts to the U.S. employment report. Economists polled by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 130,000 in May, down from April’s 177,000 gain. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. A weaker-than-expected print could reinforce bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates as early as September.

CME’s FedWatch tool currently prices in a 72% chance of at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end. Recent soft labor data, including higher-than-expected jobless claims and slowing wage growth, underpin that dovish tilt.

Gold and silver—both non-yielding assets—remain highly sensitive to rate outlooks. A softer jobs number may offer the breakout trigger precious metals need to clear current resistance levels. Until then, prices are likely to remain range-bound as markets await clarity.

• Gold price bounces but remains in a familiar range on NFP Friday.
• The US Dollar finds demand amid US-China optimism, Trump-Musk feud.    
• Gold price needs to scale key daily resistance at $3,377 to resume the uptrend.  
• A weak May US jobs report could revive the Gold price record rally.

Gold price is reversing a part of the previous sell-off and defends $3,350 early Friday as traders reposition ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.  

Gold price at the mercy of US NFP and trade headlines

Despite staging a minor rebound, Gold price remains in a familiar range seen so far this week as all eyes remain on the critical US labor market report on Friday for a fresh directional impetus.

Trade optimism continues to keep the US Dollar (USD) afloat even as the recent slew of US economic data disappointed and revived dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This resurgence in the USD demand limits any upside attempts in Gold price.  

Hopes of a sustained US-China trade deal rekindled after US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Thursday that he had a “very good phone call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which they discussed the intricacies of the trade deal.

Additionally, the ongoing spat over the spending bill between Trump and Space X founder Elon Musk took an ugly turn on Thursday, fuelling a big sell-off in Tesla shares.

Musk said Trump was in the Epstein files and should be impeached. Trump responded by saying that he was taking away Elon’s subsidies, knocking off Tesla nearly 15% on the day.

This negatively impact risk sentiment and revived the USD’s appeal as a safe-haven currency.

At the moment, the US Dollar is drawing support from profit-taking as traders cash in on their USD shorts heading into the US NFP test.

The Greenback holds its recovery following a steep decline, triggered by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish policy signal, which sent the EUR/USD pair sharply higher, smashing the USD alongside.

Will a weak US NFP report boost Gold price?

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to show the US economy added 130K jobs in May. The April NFP data beat estimates with 177K job creation. 

A reading below 100K level could cast doubts on the health of the US labor market, which will likely bring forward bets for a July Fed rate cut, boosting the non-yielding Gold price at the expense of the US Dollar.

If the data surprises with a reading above 200K, Gold price could come under strong bearish pressures. Strong US employment data would justify the Fed’s prudence on interest rates, lending support to the Greenback.

At the moment, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 54% chance of the Fed lowering rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Nothing changes for Gold price, technically, as the bullish outlook remains intact.

Buyers continue to hold above the confluence of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297.

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding well above the midline, adding credence to the bullish potential.

Gold buyers must yield a daily/ weekly closing above the 23.6% Fibo resistance at $3,377 to resume the recent uptrend toward the lifetime highs of $3,500.

Ahead of that, the May high of $3,439 must be taken out.

Alternatively, sellers could attempt control on a break below the falling trendline resistance-turned-support, now at $3,318.

The next powerful support is seen at the abovementioned confluence of $3,297.

Additional declines will challenge the 50-day SMA at $3,262, below which the last line of defense for buyers is aligned at $3,232, the 50% Fibo level of the same ascent.

Bearish Behavior

Today’s bearish behavior sets the stage for a potential test of support around the 50-Day MA, now at $3.52, and the 20-Day MA, currently at $3.51. Weekly support from this week is at $3.50. Despite the potential for eventual higher prices, as indicated by the larger price patterns, bearish price action today could postpone the potential advance. The 50-Day MA was reclaimed for a third time since the April breakdown on Monday. So, it represents a key price level to help determine the health of the trend.

Breakout Above $3.84 Targets $

Nonetheless, a decisive breakout above this week’s high, prior to a deeper pullback, will provide a new bullish signal. That would put natural gas in a position to likely break out above the $3.84 swing high. A rally above that high will trigger a continuation of the rising ABCD pattern that points to an initial minimum target of $4.08. Since the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is near at $4.12. The two price levels can be seen as a potential resistance range.

Key Support at $3.44

Since the higher swing low in May, natural gas has advanced with two upswings, each followed by a two-day pullback. The most recent pullback found support at the higher swing low of $3.44 and created a higher swing low. That marks a key potential support level as it is part of the near-term price structure. If it is broken to the downside, further bearish behavior might follow. Therefore, it is a maximum low for a deeper bearish pullback before the bullish outlook weakens.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.