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XAU/USD Current price: $3,329.73

• China reported a trade surplus of $103.22 billion in May, export and imports plunged.
• The United States will release the May Consumer Price Index next Wednesday.
• XAU/USD recovers from sub-$3,300, buying pressure is modest.

Spot Gold hovers near $3,330 a troy ounce, posting a modest intraday advance at the beginning of the week. XAU/USD recovered from an early low at $3,293.51 and advances after Wall Street’s opening amid renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness and a cautious mood.

Market players await news from trade talks as the United States (US) and China resumed negotiations. Top representatives from Washington and Beijing gather in London to discuss next steps. In the meantime, the Wall Street Journal reported market talks indicating US President Donald Trump authorized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to negotiate lifting some of the recent restrictions on a variety of products to China. Trump’s goal is to clinch a deal on rare earth minerals coming from China.

Earlier in the day, China reported a Trade Balance surplus of $103.22 billion in May, with Exports slowing to 4.8% year-on-year (YoY) down from the 8.1% posted in April. Imports shrank even further, down by 3.4% in the same period after shedding 0.2% in the year to April 2025.

Meanwhile, a holiday in Europe kept most pairs within familiar levels on Monday, with the bright metal being no exception. In fact, the macroeconomic calendar has little to offer until Wednesday, when the US will publish the May Consumer Price Index (CPI). Financial markets anticipate a modest uptick in the annual reading, not enough to twist the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance,

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it bounced from around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,295, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their strong bullish slopes far below the shorter one, in line with the dominant upward trend. At the same time, the Momentum indicator eases within positive levels, reflecting the limited buying interest rather than suggesting a steeper decline ahead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers at around 52, failing to provide clear directional clues, yet overall suggesting sellers are not interested.

In the near term, XAU/USD aims to extend its recovery, but lacks conviction. The 4-hour chart shows technical indicators recovering within negative levels, still below their midlines. At the same time, the pair is developing below a mildly bearish 20 SMA, yet a mildly bullish 100 SMA advances beyond the 200 SMA while providing near-term support at around $3,3310.

Support levels: 3,310.00 3,295.00 3,278.10

Resistance levels: 3,332.50 3,345.20 3,361.95

• Silver price gains momentum to near  $36.00 in Monday’s early early Monday
• Investors look to broaden their exposure to safe-haven assets beyond gold, supporting the Silver price. 
• The stronger US May employment report might lift the USD and cap the white metal’s upside. 

The Silver (XAG/USD) price trades in positive territory around $36.00 during the Asian session on Monday. The white metal edges higher despite the stronger-than-expected US employment data for May.  Later on Monday, investors will closely watch the developments surrounding US-China trade talks.

Geopolitical and economic uncertainty could provide some support to the Silver price as investors seek more holdings in safe-haven assets. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to speak with Chinese officials about trade talks. 

Furthermore, industrial demand for applications such as solar panels contributes to the Silver’s upside. The Silver Institute estimated the metal’s supply was 15% below demand in 2024 and is projected to see another deficit in 2025.

On the other hand, the upbeat US May employment report gave the US Federal Reserve (Fed) a way to caution ahead of US-China trade talks, which are set to take place in London later in the day. This, in turn, might boost the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodities price. Federal Fund Futures pointed to a larger possibility that the Fed may keep its benchmark interest rate steady until the September monetary policy meetings. 

(This story was corrected on June 9 at 06:55 GMT, to say in the third paragraph that industrial demand for applications such as solar panels contributes to the Silver’s upside, not the USD’s upside.)

Buying pressure in gold subsided on Friday last week, as gold dropped more than 1000 points from $3403, courtesy of the NFP data favoring the U.S. dollar.

Russia has launched one of the war’s largest air attacks, and this news may bring more inflow into gold, and prices may rise.  

The bias in gold is still buy, and the price has already tapped its buying levels.  Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast from June 9th to June 13th, 2025.

Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news

In the previous week’s forecast, we marked the weekly level and the opening gap in gold from where the price has moved up 236 points so far. 

Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.

Key economic events of this week

Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD. 

Wednesday, June 11: CPI Information

• Core CPI m/m (0.3%) vs the prediction of 0.2%: Unexpectedly high core inflation might make the USD stronger and put downward pressure on XAU/USD.
• CPI m/m (0.2% expected against 0.2% actual): Probably neutral for gold, as anticipated.
• CPI year-over-year (2.5% vs. 2.3% forecast): A hawkish Fed tone and a negative outlook for gold could result from higher inflation.

Thursday, June 12: Jobs & PPI Data:

• Core PPI m/m (0.3% vs. -0.4%): Gold is down, but rate increase bets may be revived by a rebound in producer prices.
• PPI m/m (0.2% vs -0.5% earlier): A positive PPI bolsters inflation worries and is somewhat pessimistic for gold.
• Unemployment Claims (241K as opposed to the projected 247K): Reduced claims suggest a robust job market, a bullish USD, and a dismal outlook for gold.

Friday, June 13: UoM Information

• UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim (52.5 vs. expectation of 52.2):  A little better sentiment is bad for gold and indicates economic resiliency.
• Initial UoM Inflation Forecasts: If higher, gold may benefit from inflation hedge appeal; if lower, gold may suffer.

Gold HTF Overview

The HTF level in gold has formed a significant range, with the high end at $3357 and the low end at $3193. A breakout of either side and a retest will confirm the direction of gold in the coming weeks for medium-long-term investors.

Gold Forecast for June 9th to June 13th

Gold is currently bullish in 4h timeframes and above. However, it is showing bearish momentum in 1h and below. Currently, gold is rising after reaching a crucial point of interest (POI), as discussed above. Losing the marked support on the chart below can push it to internal liquidity of $3245, while a breakout above can take it to the external liquidity of $3403.

The first selling opportunity in gold is the golden zone of fib 0.5-0.618 level, which is coming around $3335-$3344, and this level is also the breaker block of the big range gold has broken to the downside. Meanwhile, the second selling opportunity is the POC and the VAH of the ongoing bearish swing, which is coming around $3357-3369.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold. 

Support Levels 

• $3303-3294 – a test of this support can be bought again in gold

Resistance Levels 

• $3335-$3344 – breaker block, 0.5-0.618 fib level of 1hr
• $3357-$3369. – POC and VAH of the bearish swing in 1hr

The price of (EURUSD) rose in its recent intraday trading, supported by the emergence of positive signals from the (RSI), after it declined from clear oversold levels, providing bullish momentum, reinforced by the continuation of the trading above the EMA50, besides the stability of the price with a bullish trend line on the short-term basis, alongside a minor supported bias.

This technical support pushed the pair to attack the critical resistance level at 1.1440, which represents an important technical barrier that might limit the next trend, where the price success to confirm breaching this level might open the way towards extending the bullish wave on the near- term basis.

The GBPJPY pair succeeded in taking advantage of the main indicator’s positiveness, forming a strong bullish rally, achieving the previously suggested targets by reaching 196.18, forming a temporary negative rebound, in order to catch its breath before forming a new bullish attack.

The bullish track will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support near 194.20, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, to expect surpassing 196.30 and reaching the next target at 197.35, to face 61.8%Fibonacci correction level.

The expected trading range for today is between 195.25 and 197.35

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair succeeded in taking advantage of the main indicator’s positiveness, forming a strong bullish rally, achieving the previously suggested targets by reaching 196.18, forming a temporary negative rebound, in order to catch its breath before forming a new bullish attack.

The bullish track will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support near 194.20, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, to expect surpassing 196.30 and reaching the next target at 197.35, to face 61.8%Fibonacci correction level.

The expected trading range for today is between 195.25 and 197.35

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price extends losing streak into early Monday, awaits US-China trade talks.
• The US Dollar reverses Nonfarm Payrolls-led gains, bracing for May CPI inflation.
• Gold price turns south after facing rejection at the key daily resistance at $3,377.
• Gold buyers stay hopeful until the 21-day SMA and RSI midline are defended.

Gold price is battling the $3,300 threshold early Monday amid a bearish start to a critical week. Traders eagerly await the US-China trade talks on Monday and Wednesday’s US consumer inflation data for a fresh trading impetus in Gold price.  

Gold price eyes US-China trade talks after NFP beat

Gold price is trading on thin ice even as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground following a steep advance led by the above forecasts US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.

The headline NFP data showed that the US economy added 139,000 jobs in May after reporting a revised 147,000 job gain in April, beating estimates of a 130,000 print.

Strong US employment data eased expectations of more than two interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, justifying the central bank’s prudent approach while lifting the USD at the expense of the Gold price.

In Monday’s trading so far, the Greenback is feeling the angst of the worsening riots in Los Angeles (LA) over immigration issues.

According to CNN News, “immigration authorities and demonstrators have clashed for three days in the LA area, with unrest beginning Friday after dozens of people were detained by federal immigration agents across different locations.”

Intensifying the fragile situation, US President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of 2,000 National Guard troops to quell the protests, overriding California Governor Gavin Newsom’s objections in a rare move.

Additionally, USD markets stay unnerved ahead of the much-awaited US-China trade talks due later in the day.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in the United Kingdom (UK) on Monday for economic and trade consultations.

Traders also resort to adjusting their USD positions ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data slated for release on Wednesday. The ongoing spat between Trump and Space X founder Elon Musk also remains a headwind for the buck.

Looking ahead, further optimism on the US-China trade front could fuel a fresh leg down in Gold price. However, the downside could remain limited amid US political and civil concerns while the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical escalation could also remain supportive of the traditional safe-haven Gold price.

China’s disinflation and widening trade surplus data have little to no impact on the bright metal, as yet. China is the world’s top Gold consumer.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

According to the short-term technical outlook, Gold price’s bullish bias remains in place.

Buyers continue to defend the confluence of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297.

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above the midline, adding credence to the bullish potential.

Gold sellers need a daily candlestick closing below the abovementioned strong support at $3,297 to challenge the 50-day SMA cap at $3,262.

The last line of defense for buyers is aligned at $3,232, the 50% Fibo level of the same ascent.

On the flip side, Gold buyers will likely find strong offers at the $3,350 psychological level if the rebound gathers strength.

The next resistance is spotted at the 23.6% Fibo resistance at $3,377, above which the May high of $3,439 could be threatened.

• Gold price trades flat around $3,310 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• US NFP increased by 139,000 in May, more than expected; Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%. 
• The US-China trade talks will be the highlight later on Monday.

The Gold price (XAU/USD ) trades on a flat note near $3,310 during the early Asian session on Monday. The rebound in the US Dollar (USD) could weigh on the precious metal. However, uncertainty from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

Stronger-than-expected US jobs growth in May lifts the Greenback and undermine the USD-denominated commodity price. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) climbed by 139,000 in May compared to the 147,000 increase (revised from 177,000) in April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Friday. This reading came in above the market consensus of 130,000.

The US Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2% in May, while the Average Hourly Earnings remained unchanged at 3.9% in the same reported period. Both readings came in stronger than the market expectation. 

Following the upbeat US job report, Federal Fund Futures pointed to a larger chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep its benchmark interest rate steady at its next two monetary policy meetings. 

Investors will closely monitor trade talks between the US and China later on Monday, as Trump said that the world’s two largest economies will hold trade talks in London. Any signs of an escalating trade war between the US and China might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal. 

Bearish Price Action

Today’s short-term bearish price action reflects weakness following a potentially significant bull breakout that was triggered on Monday. A double breakout occurred on Monday as gold rose above a downtrend line and prior swing high (B). Today’s price action shows a potential failure of the breakout, as there has been no upside follow-through, other than a failed attempt to continue higher on Thursday.

Gold fell below two trendlines today that represented potential support, a declining purple line and rising blue line. A decline below the lower blue line could lead to further weakness as it represented dynamic support for the near-term uptrend that began from the May swing low (A). This will change the angle of ascent for the trend and therefore a recovery may not occur quickly.

Potential Support Levels

Potential support around the 20-Day MA at $3,29, is enhanced by this week’s low, which showed support at $3,296. However, it also indicates a greater potential risk of a deeper pullback. Gold is set to end the week with a bearish shooting star weekly candlestick pattern. And it follows a failed upside breakout. Failed patterns can lead to sharp moves the other direction.

Weekly Bearish Pattern

A drop below this week’s low will make last week’s low of $3,245, a potential downside target. Note that it aligns with the higher swing low (C) on the daily chart. However, the 50-Day MA marks a potential higher support level, now at $3,260. The 20-Day MA has not been confirmed as key dynamic trend support yet as the line has gone through a consolidation range since the May 1 interim swing low. Therefore, the 50-Day MA becomes a potential target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.