Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast for 2025 by 5.5% for Brent crude and by 4.3% for West Texas Intermediate citing OPEC+ decision to bring more production back in May and the tariff barrage that President Trump unleashed this week, which the bank expects will cause a global recession.

The bank’s analysts now expect Brent crude to average $69 per barrel this year and WTI to average $66 per barrel. The benchmarks have been trading around these levels earlier today.

Goldman did not stop there, however, expecting the doom and gloom to persist into 2026 as well. The bank also revised its 2026 Brent crude forecast by 9% to $62 per barrel and its 2026 WTI forecast by 6.3% to $59 per barrel.

“The risks to our reduced oil price forecast are to the downside, especially for 2026, given growing risks of recession and to a lesser extent of higher OPEC+ supply,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note, cited by Reuters.

The OPEC+ countries that have been cutting their oil production for more than a year to keep prices above a certain acceptable minimum decided on Thursday to continue easing the reductions by adding 411,000 barrels per day to their combined supply from May. The move came as a surprise to traders and analysts, who had expected a much smaller boost of 135,000 barrels daily.

Instead, the eight OPEC+ countries that have been withholding production – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – decided to bundle three monthly increases in output in the May production levels, which put additional pressure on prices.

In light of these latest developments, Goldman Sachs’ analysts have revised their oil demand projections for 2025 to 600,000 bpd from 900,000 bpd. For 2026, they project global oil demand growth of 700,000 barrels daily.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Analysts warn that such measures could exacerbate global trade tensions, raising the risk of a slowdown in international commerce and potentially tipping the U.S. economy toward recession.

Even with downside pressure, gold continues to benefit from safe-haven flows. “The broader market is cautious, and gold is finding support from risk-off sentiment,” said a commodities strategist at a major European bank. “Tariff escalation has reignited concerns around economic stability.”

Silver Tracks Lower, but Risk Aversion Offers Support

Silver (XAG/USD) slipped to $31.40, following broader risk aversion across commodities and equities. While silver’s industrial component makes it more sensitive to growth expectations, its safe-haven demand remains supported.

A firmer U.S. dollar ahead of the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report also weighed on silver’s price. However, analysts expect downside in silver to remain limited, particularly if the NFP data reflects labor market softness or moderates expectations for U.S. growth.

Fed Rate Cut Bets and Yield Decline Anchor Gold

The Federal Reserve’s expected dovish stance continues to underpin gold’s resilience. Traders are pricing in as many as four rate cuts by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% for the first time in six months—a move that weakened the dollar and increased the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. According to futures data, markets now assign a 64% probability of a rate cut by July.

Natural gas price faced the negativity of the Stochastic by repeatedly holding within an upward channel, as the support of $3.750 held on, with the price marking some gains by touching $4.150.

The price is now in need of positive momentum to surpass $4.180 and open the door for more gains towards $4.260 then $4.480. 

Expected trading range today is between $3.880  and $4.260.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish 

Copper price gave in to negative pressures and fell below the stable support of $4.8100, and hesitantly approached $4.7400, delaying any attempts at rising even as the price remains within an ascending channel.

As the $5.000 forms as a barrier and negative signals emerge from the Stochastic, the price  will likely head towards $4.6500 then $4.5600.

Expected trading range today is between $4.6500  and $4.9500.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

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Platinum Prices in United States:

The U.S. platinum prices recorded a sharp surge during the fourth quarter, standing at 995 USD/MT in the last quarter of 2024, owing to a mix of robust industry consumption and supply-side constraints. The Platinum Price rise was mainly triggered by increased use in healthcare and electronics industries, where producers accelerated purchases to compensate for growing customer demands. Seasonal stockpiling before the holiday season also placed upward pressure on the Platinum Price Index.

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This release was published on openPR.

US crude oil price fell in latest intraday trading after managing to vent off oversold saturation that was apparent in the Stochastic, with negative signals emerging from it, while the price was hurt by exiting an ascending correctional price channel yesterday, which contained its short-term movement, with ongoing negative pressure due to trading below the 50-candle SMA.

Volatility Likely Within One-Week Range

Nonetheless, given the wide trading range for this week, crude oil could trade within the range for some time. The high-to-low price range for the week is $66.17 to $72.49 currently, which reflects a decline of $6.32 or 9.6%. Of course, there is also a chance that crude oil could drop below today’s low and head towards long-term support around $65.40. That was a 22-month low for crude oil. Given the strong bearish weekly reversal signal today, it is looking more likely that the price of crude oil eventually resolves to the downside. It has been largely consolidating for almost two years.

Possible Resistance Levels

Price levels to watch during a bounce for potential resistance start with a $68.37 to $68.53 price range, consisting of previous resistance and the 20-Day MA, respectively. That price range is followed by a range from $68.82 to $69.07. The price range starts with an interim swing low and ends with a minor swing low at $69.07 from Monday.

Support Found at 88.6% Retracement

Despite a very sharp decline today, crude oil respected the deep 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $66.20 as the low for the day was $66.17. That ratio is the square root of 78.6%, another important ratio, which is the square root of the golden ratio, 61.8%. This could mean that a temporary floor for the price of crude oil may have been established. It also further validates the usefulness of Fibonacci and harmonic ratios regarding price patterns in crude oil.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Gold price rebounds to around $3,115 in Thursday’s late American session. 
• The heightened economic uncertainty supports the safe-haven demand, supporting the Gold price. 
• Traders await the US March employment data, which is due later on Friday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some lost ground to near $3,115 during the late American session on Thursday after facing some profit-taking in the previous session. Escalating concerns over a global trade war and ongoing geopolitical risks boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

The precious metal trims losses after falling over 2% from an all-time high, as a broader market selloff triggered by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs policy infected Gold traders. Traders attributed gold’s dip to profit-taking and investors selling some of their bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.

However, the downside for the yellow metal might be capped amid the fears that Trump’s tariffs could dampen economic growth. The heightened uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. “As the market sold-off on the deleveraging pressures, the market was looking for buying opportunities on the dip,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

All eyes will be on the US March employment data on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. In case of the stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback and cap the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, and Christopher Waller are set to speak later on the same day. 

Bullish Price Action

Today’s price movement indicates a possible continuation of the upward trend that originated from the March 27 swing low of $3.73. Since a lower swing high was established at $4.26 in March, that is the next price target for natural gas. However, a bull breakout above that swing high will trigger a continuation of a bull trend and a bullish reversal of the recent declining price correction. Each signal would provide another piece of technical evidence showing Improving demand for natural gas.

Confluence Target at $4.56

If bullish momentum can now be sustained, there is an initial upside target for natural gas around $4.56. That price level is identified by two methods. It is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and it marks the initial target for a rising ABCD pattern. When two or more indicators point to a similar price level, that price area can sometimes act like a magnet, pulling price towards it. Whether that happens with natural gas or not remains to be seen. But it certainly could happen.

On Track for Bullish Weekly Candle Pattern

Since there is only one more trading day left to the week, natural gas looks likely to end the week confirming a one-week bullish reversal that triggered this week on the weekly chart. A weekly close above last week’s high of $4.10 would confirm the breakout on the larger time frame. Also, there is a possibility that the one-week pattern this week will be a hammer candlestick pattern. However, in its current pattern position, it would represent upward momentum rather than the potential for a bullish reversal, as a bullish reversal already triggered.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price falls vertically below $32.00 after US President Trump announces reciprocal tariffs.
• A significant increase in the import duty on China has weighed on the Silver’s demand outlook.
• Investors await the US NFP data, which will influence Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

Silver price is down almost 5% during North American trading hours on Thursday, tests territory below $32.00. The price of the white metal has become vulnerable after United States (US) President Donald Trump unveiled a detailed reciprocal tariff plan for his trading partners.

The “Buy the Rumour and Sell the News” indicator forced traders to trigger the sell button for the Silver price. The previous metal was performing strongly, along with Gold, from the past few months as investors were increasingly confident that Trump’s tariffs would be inflationary and weigh on economic growth globally, including in the US. Technically, the appeal of the Silver price increases if investors anticipate heightening global economic tensions.

Fears of a US economic slowdown have also weighed on the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, nosedives to near 101.30, the lowest level seen in six months.

Additionally, escalated concerns over the demand of Silver by industries has also sent its price strongly on the ground. On Wednesday, Donald Trump announced a 34% import duty on China, in addition to the 20% levy already imposed for pouring drugs into the US economy. A significant increase in tariffs by Trump on China is expected to dampen its manufacturing sector. Such a scenario will weaken the demand for Silver by Chinese firms, given its application in various industries such as Electric Vehicles (EV), electronics, and solar energy.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March, which will be published on Friday. The employment data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price falls like a house of cards after failing to revisit the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.

The Silver price slides below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $33.35, indicating that the near-term trend has turned bearish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slumps to near 40.00. A bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI fails to hold the 40.00 level.

Looking down, the February 28 low of $30.82 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.

Silver daily chart