Bitcoin price settled lower in the intraday levels, amid ongoing negative pressure due to trading below the 50-candle SMA, coupled with negative signals from the Stochastic, and amid the dominance of the main downward trend as the price trades alongside the trend line.
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US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs triggered panic across financial boards.
The US will publish the March Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
XAU/USD corrective slide may extend if the pair breaks below $3,040.
Spot Gold battles to retain the $3,100 threshold in the American session, easing from a fresh all-time high of $3,167.68. The XAU/USD pair soared during Asian trading hours, as market players panicked following United States (US) President Donald Trump, “Liberation Day” announcement.
In a press conference in the Rose Garden on Wednesday, Trump detailed widespread tariffs on roughly 180 different countries, with a baseline of 10%. Levies on China reached 54% after an additional 34% was added to the previously announced 20%. The EU got 20%, while some Asian countries like Vietnam or Cambodia will pay taxes of over 40% to sell their goods into the US.
Financial markets panicked amid speculation that inflation would soar while economic progress would stall. Concerns about a US recession rose, alongside speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to adjust its monetary policy accordingly. The US Dollar plummeted, and so did stock markets around the world.
Meanwhile, the US will release the March Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. The country is expected to have added 135K, following the 151K gained in February. The Unemployment Rate is foreseen steady at 4.1% while wage inflation is seen pretty much unchanged, up by 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.9% from a year earlier.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
As per XAU/USD, the pair retreated sharply after reaching the aforementioned high amid profit taking, with buyers finally returning at around $3,050. From a technical point of view, Gold has a limited bearish scope, according to technical readings in the daily chart. The intraday slide stalled far above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at around $3,022. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, maintain their sharp upward slopes far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators ease from extreme readings, yet remain far above their midlines, not enough to confirm a top in place.
The XAU/USD pair 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trading below a now flat 20 SMA, but still well above a bullish 100 SMA, providing support at around $3,040. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have recovered from near oversold readings to stabilize within negative levels. A steep decline could take place on a break below the mentioned $3,040 region.
Support levels: 3,086.70 3,073.90 3,061.10
Resistance levels: 3,123.10 3,136.70 3,150.00
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Current price action shows natural gas testing major support at $3.924. If this level holds, the market could target minor resistance at $4.094, followed by $4.253. The critical trigger point for a decisive upside breakout sits at $4.317. Conversely, a breakdown below current support could accelerate selling pressure toward $3.732, with further downside risk to the major pivot at $3.350.
Weather Catalysts and Demand Factors
The Commodity Weather Group reports a notable shift to cooler temperatures for the eastern United States from April 7-11, potentially boosting heating demand. This weather pattern emerges as US electricity output shows positive growth trends, with the Edison Electric Institute reporting that total lower-48 electricity output rose 0.9% year-over-year to 72,289 GWh for the week ended March 22, while the 52-week period showed a stronger 3.55% increase.
Supply and Production Metrics
Lower-48 state dry gas production stood at 105 bcf/day (+2.9% y/y) on Wednesday, while domestic demand registered at 74.2 bcf/day (-5.2% y/y). LNG net flows to export terminals were 14.2 bcf/day, down 9.6% week-over-week. The Baker Hughes rig count showed active natural gas drilling rigs increased by 1 to 103 for the week ending March 28, which remains significantly below the 5-1/4 year high of 166 rigs recorded in September 2022.
Storage Outlook and Market Forecast
Thursday’s EIA storage report is projected to show a build of approximately 25-29 Bcf, considerably bearish compared to the five-year average draw of -13 Bcf. Despite this upcoming injection, the broader storage picture remains supportive for prices. Current inventories stand at 1,744 Bcf, which is 557 Bcf below last year and 122 Bcf below the five-year average. BloombergNEF projects US gas storage will run 10% below the five-year average this summer, suggesting sustained price support.
The longer-term outlook appears increasingly bullish as President Trump’s decision to lift restrictions on LNG export projects advances consideration for approximately a dozen new facilities, which would significantly boost demand for US natural gas and provide structural price support.
Platinum price declined below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $983, and tackled $955.60, and retested this barrier anew, while settling above the 55 SMA.
As major indicators conflict, the price will likely engage in sideways trading for some time, but a drop below the 55 SMA would activate the negative path and send the price towards $950.00, representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Expected trading range today is between $950.00 and $985.
Silver price attracts some sellers to around $33.15 in Thursday’s early European session, down 2.25% on the day.
The positive view of Silver prevails above the key 100-day EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out.
The immediate resistance level emerges at $34.23; the first support level to watch is $32.66.
The Silver price (XAG/USD) falls to near $33.15 during the early European session on Thursday, pressured by some profit-taking. Nonetheless, the downside for the white metal might be limited as US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new global tariffs on Wednesday, raising the fears of a widening trade war.
According to the daily chart, the bullish trend of Silver remains in place as the commodity is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, displaying neutral momentum in the near term. This suggests that further consolidation cannot be ruled out.
The immediate resistance level for white metal emerges at $34.23, the high of March 18. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is the $34.60-$34.70 zone, representing the high of March 28 and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above the mentioned level could pave the way to the $35.00 psychological level.
On the flip side, the first downside target for the silver price is seen at $32.66, the low of March 21. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to the next contention level at $31.89, the 100-day EMA. Any follow-through selling could expose $30.82, the low of February 28.
Silver price (XAG/USD) daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
EUR/USD surged in latest intraday trading and managed to pierce the pivotal resistance of $1.0945, amid the dominance of the main upward trend, after the price exited a downward correctional price channel previously, embarking on a new upward wave.
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Silver Trails Behind as Industrial Pressure Mounts
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $33.28, having touched a session low of $33.07. Despite gold’s upward momentum, silver’s response has been more restrained, weighed down by its industrial use case.
With growth forecasts under pressure, traders remain cautious on silver exposure. The metal continues to trade below the key pivot of $33.49, limiting upside prospects in the near term.
Rate Cut Odds Rise as Treasury Yields Slide
Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, according to CME FedWatch. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.15%, driven by fears that tariff-driven weakness could prompt the Fed to act.
A weaker U.S. dollar—pressured by falling yields—has further supported gold, making it more attractive to non-dollar holders.
Jobs Data Overlooked as Eyes Turn to NFP
The ADP employment report surprised to the upside with 155,000 jobs added, exceeding the 105,000 forecast. However, markets shrugged it off, focusing instead on upcoming data. Weekly jobless claims, ISM Services PMI, and especially Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report are now in focus as traders weigh how deeply tariffs could impact the broader economy.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold remains bullish above $3,116 amid rising Fed cut bets and trade risks. Silver faces pressure below $33.49, with momentum tilted bearish unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.
Support for the past two days at $3.93 is near the prior interim swing low from mid-March. Moreover, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement also was completed. However, given today’s lower daily high and the fact that the 20-Day MA has turned down, the next lower potential support level around the 50-Day MA, looks likely to be tested. It is now at $3.88. The 50-Day line is joined by the 78.6% retracement level at $3.84. That price level has added significance as it is this week’s low so far. It begins a pattern of higher weekly lows following the bullish reversal that triggered earlier this week on the weekly chart (not shown).
Weekly Bullish Pattern Retained
This means that the weekly chart just began a new potential upswing this week. Therefore, the bias should be towards the upside. However, that doesn’t mean that the current pullback can’t go lower first. But as long as natural gas remains above this week’s low, it retains the weekly bull trend price structure. If there is a sustained reclaim of the 20-Day MA and today’s high prior to a deeper decline, then the near-term outlook would switch to bullish.
Upside Targets
The first advance off the recent higher swing low of $3.73 retraced a little less than 50% of the recent downswing. Therefore, the 50% retracement at $4.32 would mark an upside target, along with the interim swing high at $4.37. Further up is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.45. A daily close above today’s high and the 20-Day MA would indicate strength that could then lead to a bullish breakout above the recent swing high at $4.25. It is also possible that natural gas consolidates for a little while and takes a rest by moving relatively sideways.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Gold price rose in latest intraday trading, boosted by a technical pattern that’s complementary to the main upward trend, the Flag pattern, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line, with positive signals from the Stochastic, coupled with ongoing positive support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.
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US crude oil price turned its early losses into mild gains in latest intraday trading as it seeks a bottom to bounce it higher and help it gather necessary positive momentum to rebound, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, while a positive divergence starts to form in the Stochastic, sending out positive signals.
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