Notice that there is a higher daily low today and that support for the past two days was at a prior top trend channel line (purple). That line is the top of a long-term channel starting from February 2024. Signs of support at a prior resistance line is a sign of strengthening.
Nonetheless, what happens next is what matters. Is the bull channel breakout sustained or is it followed by a decline back into the channel. There is also a smaller rising parallel trend channel (blue) on the chart marking resistance around Tuesday’s high. That high also completed a 261.8% retracement of the bearish correction begun in the second half of February at $3,153.
Above $3,153 is $3,170
Especially if gold can stay above the top purple channel line, it has a chance to continue towards higher potential targets. Above the 261.8% retracement level is a small target range from $3,170 to $3,177, consisting of the 250% retracement of the October 2024 decline, and the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern, respectively.
Bearish Shooting Start Triggers Below $3,101
On the downside, a drop below Wednesday’s low of $3,108 puts Tuesday’s low of $3,101 at risk of failing as well. Gold would then be back below the top channel line and likely heading towards a test of support around the prior pivot around $3,077, and the recent high at $3,058. Further down is potential support at the 20-Day MA, now at $3,012.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver price climbs to near $34.00 ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement.
Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will be unfavorable for the global economy, including the US.
Investors also await the US ADP Employment Change data for March.
Silver price (XAG/USD) advances to near $34.00 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal moves higher as investors rush to safe-haven assets amid caution ahead of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump at 20:00 GMT.
US President Trump is poised to announce hefty tariffs on his trading partners in an attempt to fix what he calls unfair trade participants to make “America wealthy again”. According to the Washington Post, the White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports to the US.
Theoretically, the appeal of the US Dollar (US) should have increased in an uncertain economic environment, but it is struggling to attract bids as Trump’s tariffs will also weigh on the US economic outlook. Additionally, Trump’s tariffs will also boost inflationary pressures in the near term. Such a scenario would allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for longer.
Historically, Fed’s restrictive monetary policy stance bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
In today’s session, investors will also focus on the ADP Employment Change data for March, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. The agency is expected to show that private employers added 105K fresh workers, higher than 77K addition recorded in February.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price resumes its upside move towards the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.
The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.44 continues to provide support to the Silver price.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to break above 60.00. A bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above 60.00.
Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
EUR/USD price kept moving within a tight range of sideways trading in the intraday levels, hurt by negative pressure from trading below the 50-candle SMA, while dominated by the downward correctional trend as the price trades within a price channel, with positive signals emerging from the Stochastic after reaching oversold levels.
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Better than anticipated United States data underpinned the market mood.
US President Donald Trump will announce fresh tariffs through a press conference.
XAU/USD consolidates near record highs, bulls retain control in the near term.
Spot Gold consolidated for most of this Wednesday, hovering around the $3,130 level and confined to Tuesday’s range. The XAU/USD trades marginally higher on a daily basis in the mid-American session, with speculative interest awaiting United States (US) President Donald Trump’s press conference.
The US President is about to announce his decision on reciprocal tariffs in a press conference scheduled for 20:00 GMT. Market talks suggest such levies will come into effect right after the announcement, as hinted by US officials on Tuesday. The extent of taxes, however, remains a mystery.
The mood somehow improved after Wall Street’s opening, with the three major indexes trading in the green, despite the sour tone of their European counterparts. Better than anticipated US data indeed underpinned the mood.
The March ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector created 155K new jobs in the month, much better than the 105K expected or the previous revised 84K. Additionally, February Factory Orders were up 0.6%, beating the 0.5% anticipated.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it could extend its advance. The pair trades above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating north and providing dynamic support at around $3,012.90. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator resumed its advance within overbought levels, while the Momentum indicator turned south, but holds within positive levels, not enough to confirm another leg south.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart buyers retain control. A bullish 20 SMA attracted buyers throughout the day, currently at $3.115.00. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, gain upward traction far below the shorter one. Finally, the Momentum indicator aims marginally lower at around its midline, while the RSI indicator consolidates at around 62, limiting the bearish scope for XAU/USD.
Support levels: 3,123.60 3,012.90 3,097.50
Resistance levels: 3,136.70 3,150.00 3,175.00
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Despite the weakness of latest natural gas trading, as the Stochastic slips below 50, the price is still holding within the ascending channel shown in the attached chart, with $3.750 forming as an important support, reinforcing the upward trend in the short and medium terms.
The price will likely gather momentum and rush towards $4.260, opening the door for more targets at $4.480 then $4.620.
Expected trading range today is between the $3.880 support and the $4.260 resistance.
Copper price remained under pressure by persistently trading below $5.1300 and pressuring the $5.00 barrier, in an attempt to resume its profit-taking operations.
As the Stochastic holds near the 20 level and sends out negative signals, it’ll only reinforce the downward correctional path towards $4.9100 then $4.8100.
Expected trading range today is between the $4.9100 support and the $5.1000 resistance.
Platinum price closed once more below the stable top of $1007.00, maintaining the chances of activating the downward path, with negative signals from the Stochastic, while the price creeped below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $983.
We expect the price to tackle $964 soon and register a new low to confirm the downward path, thus targeting $955.00 then $941.00 in upcoming trading.
Expected trading range today is between the $964 support and the $995 resistance.
Coffee price managed to shake off transient negative pressures and close higher above the initial support at $370.70, as the Stochastic exited oversold levels with the price marking some gains and settling near $390.0.
As the price is continuously exposed to positive pressures, it’ll reinforce the upward trend towards the $406 barrier, with a breach leading the way to $418.00 then $427.50.
Expected trading range today is between the $375.00 support and the $406.00 resistance.
US crude oil price edged lower in latest intraday trading on profit-taking, while trying to gather positive momentum to rebound once more, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, as the Stochastic reached oversold levels compared to the price’s movements, hinting at positive divergence, which would reinforce the positive scenario.
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During Monday’s advance to a high of $72.07, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of an interim downswing, was completed at $71.84, and the 161.8% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern was reached at $71.01. Signs of strength were shown with a reclaim of the 50-Day MA and a breakout above the 31.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $71.26. The ABCD pattern target is 161.8% of the price appreciation seen in the first leg up of the pattern, labeled AB. It reflects a harmonic relationship between the two swings based on price. Once that occurs there is a greater potential for resistance to be seen.
New Trend High Fails
Notice that the ABCD pattern target was almost an exact match with Monday’s high. Moreover, observe that Monday’s strong 3.37% advance was preceded by an undercut of the prior day’s low and a successful test of support at a lower trendline. That is when buyers took back control and drove the price above the highs of the previous three days.
The line represented resistance previously as shown by an interim swing high (B). This type of behavior before a strong move is not unusual. Therefore, it is a pattern of behavior that will likely be seen again either in crude oil or other financial assets.
50-Day MA Support is Key
Although it looks like crude oil could keep climbing to the next higher price target, the fact that two targets mark a resistance zone and there is a bearish daily pattern, suggests a pullback first. A breakdown below today’s low of $71.34 will trigger the bearish shooting star pattern. The 50-Day MA is currently at $70.64 and it now represents a key potential short-term support area. Higher targets for crude oil include the confluence of the 200-Day MA, now at $73.13, and the 50% retracement at $73.08.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
