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• Silver prices surged to a three-month high of $32.38 on Wednesday.
• Safe-haven metals gain ground amid risk-off mood following global trade and economic uncertainties.
• Dollar-denominated Silver gains traction as the USD experiences a technical pullback.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rises for the third successive session, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce, during the European hours on Wednesday. The safe-haven metals like Silver gain ground due to increased risk aversion following global trade and economic uncertainties.

In response to the new 10% US tariff that took effect on Tuesday, China imposed a 15% tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, along with an additional 10% tariff on crude oil, farm equipment, and certain automobiles.

However, traders remain hopeful for a potential resolution between the United States (US) and China, similar to the agreements reached with Mexico and Canada. US President Donald Trump stated on Monday that he expects to speak with China soon but warned, “If we can’t reach a deal with China, the tariffs will be very, very substantial.” However, no further developments have been reported.

Trump, earlier this week, announced a temporary suspension of tariffs on Mexico and Canada after their leaders agreed to deploy 10,000 troops to the US border to combat drug trafficking. The tariffs initially imposed two days earlier—25% on Mexican and Canadian goods have been postponed for at least 30 days.

The dollar-denominated Silver attracts buyers as the US Dollar (USD) goes through a technical downward correction. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, remains under downward pressure for the third successive day, trading around 107.70 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, traders brace for Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction.

Silver, which does not yield interest, is benefiting from the dovish stance of major central banks. The Bank of Canada (BoC) has halted its quantitative tightening and joined Sweden’s Riksbank in cutting interest rates. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, while both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) have signaled potential rate cuts ahead. Additionally, markets expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to implement two rate cuts this year.

The NZDUSD price provides more positive trades after surpassing the EMA50, waiting to test 0.5738$ as a next main target, which represents 23.6% Fibonacci correction level for the entire decline from 0.6377$ to 0.5540$, which means that breaching it will extend the bullish wave to reach 0.5860$ as a next positive station.

• Gold price consolidates recent gains above $2,850 early Thursday, awaits US data, Fedspeak.
• Ebbing trade war fears, USD/JPY sell-off weigh on the US Dollar amid mixed US ISM and ADP data.
• Gold price remains overbought on the daily time frame, risking a pullback in the near term.

Gold price extends its winning streak into a sixth straight day on Thursday, consolidating near record highs of $2,882 set on Wednesday.

Gold price sticks to record rally, with eyes on US jobs data

Sustained US Dollar (USD) weakness alongside the extended correction in the US Treasury bond yields continue to bode well for the non-yielding Gold price. The Greenback bears the brunt of receding fears of a potential global trade war after US President Donald Trump’s pushback on Canada and Mexico for a month while markets look past the US-Sino tariff war, expecting no further escalation.

Additionally, Trump’s plans to end the Israel-Hamas geopolitical conflict also provided a ray of hope to markets, diminishing the USD’s safe-haven appeal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump met on Tuesday at the White House and discussed the elimination of Hamas, Iran strategy and renewed Israel-Saudi normalization.

Furthermore, expectations of policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) drive the Japanese Yen to near two-month highs against the US Dollar, dragging USD/JPY sharply lower. The USD/JPY weakness remains a drag on the Greenback, allowing Gold price to maintain its buoyant tone.

According to the LSEG data, a quarter-point Fed cut is fully priced for July, with markets expecting 46.3 percentage points of cuts by the December meeting. Meanwhile, markets have priced in around 94.8% odds for a quarter-point hike by September.

With trade tensions in the back seat for now, attention turns to Friday’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could offer cues on the Fed’s next policy move. The NFP data could emerge as the main market driver for Gold price heading into next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

In the meantime, the US weekly Jobless Claims and Preliminary Unit Labor Cost will be eyed alongside the Fedspeak for some trading incentives in Gold price. Any fresh developments surrounding Trump’s tariff plans will likely temper the Gold price rally, reviving the haven demand for the USD.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart continues to caution Gold buyers as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in an extremely overbought zone, currently near 76.50.

That said, Gold price risks a pullback on a sustained move below the $2.850 level.

If the selling pressure intensifies, Gold price could challenge the $2,800 round level, below which the February 3 low of $2,772 will be tested.

However, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100-day SMA Bull Cross keep hopes alive for buyers, while Gold price also managed to close Wednesday above the $2,850 psychological barrier.

Gold buyers must take out the record highs of $2,882 for further upside. The next relevant target is aligned at the $3,000 round level.

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) got positive close above 2764.75$, noticing that the recent trades are confined within bullish pennant pattern that appears on the chart, which means that breaching 2825.00$ will activate the positive effect of this pattern and push the price to achieve our first waited target at 3017.30$.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaking 2764.75$ followed by 2715.00$ levels will stop the bullish wave and push the price to turn to decline.

Brent oil price broke 75.66$ level clearly and closed the daily candlestick below it, to complete forming the head and shoulders’ pattern and get negative motive that supports the continuation of the expected bearish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, and we believe that the way is open to achieve our next target at 74.00$.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, taking into consideration that breaching 75.66$ followed by 76.00$ levels will stop the current negative pressure and push the price to achieve some gains before determining the next destination clearly.

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) finds difficulty to hold above 2764.75$, to move below it now, noticing that stochastic gathers the positive momentum to support the chances to rise in the upcoming sessions and surpass the mentioned level again.

Therefore, we expect to witness positive trades today, and the price needs to breach 2764.75$ resistance to confirm heading towards 3017.30$ that represents our next main target, taking into consideration that failing to breach the mentioned resistance will put the price under additional negative pressure that its targets begin by testing 2480.00$ areas.

The expected trading range for today is between 2580.00$ support and 2890.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

XAU/USD Current price: $2,875.41

• United States data showed services output grew at a slower-than-anticipated pace in January.
• Financial markets slowly moved away from panic selling, concerns remain in the background.
• XAU/USD is bullish while overbought, speculative interest aims for $2,900.

Spot Gold’s rally to record highs continued on Wednesday, with XAU/USD trading as high as $2,882.34 during American trading hours. As it has been happening these days, demand for safety prevails amid mounting concerns related to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs. At the same time, the US Dollar (USD) has lost its attractiveness, with stock markets recovering and investors digesting the latest US data.

The latest US macroeconomic figures showed a solid labor market and softer-than-anticipated economic progress. On the one hand,  the ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector added 183,000 new jobs in January, better than the 150,000 anticipated by market players and above the 122,000 gained in December.

On the other hand, the January ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose by 52.8, below the 54 posted in December and the expected 54.3. Other details of the report showed that the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component, dropped to 60.4 from 64.4, while the Employment Index edged higher to 52.3 from 51.3.

Meanwhile, Wall Street struggles to extend its recent recovery. Most Asian and European indexes closed in the green, but among US indexes, only the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the bullish momentum prevails despite overbought conditions, as technical indicators keep aiming north despite developing at extreme levels. At the same time, the pair advanced further above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading sharply higher at around $2,750.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the upside. Technical indicators have resumed their advances within overbought levels and after a limited retracement, suggesting buyers are still willing to add on dips. Finally, XAU/USD develops far above all bullish moving averages, with the shorter 20 SMA at around $2,825.

Support levels: 2,857.80 2,845.30 2,829.10

Resistance levels: 2,883.00 2,900.00 2,915.00 

Drop Below $3.15 May Test Lower Support

Short-term resistance is at today’s high of $3.37 and support was at the low of the day, at $3.16. Despite the minor bullish indication from today’s price action, further consolidation within the day’s range is also possible. If the low of the day is broken to the downside, there is the possibility of a gap filling at $3.12. A rising trendline can also be watched for signs of support if recent lows are retested.

It is interesting to note that this week’s low, that was hit today, successfully found support around the 20-Week MA (not shown), which is $3.15. Notably, natural gas fell below the 20-Week MA last week and closed below it on a weekly basis. That was bearish price behavior. But the reclaim of the 20-Week line this week countered with bullish indications.

Weekly Bullish Sign

Therefore, support around $3.15 needs to continue to hold to confirm the bullish posture. Staying above the 20-Week line will provide another piece of bullish evidence, increasing the chance for a continuation of the bounce from last week’s low of $2.99. Regardless, natural gas is likely to complete this week as an inside week given last week’s wide trading range from $2.99 to $3.83.

Next Up is $3.51 Price Zone

A decisive breakout above Wednesday’s high of $3.37 points to higher targets for natural gas. The 50-Day MA at $3.52 is the next upside target where resistance may be seen. It is confirmed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.51. Since the 50-Day line had been dynamic support for the rising trend previously, until last Tuesday, there is a strong chance it will be tested as resistance at a minimum.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Affirm Holdings’ stock price (AFRM) slid in the intraday levels, amid negative pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA, with negative signals from the RSI after reaching overbought levels, as the stock tries to shake off these negative pressures, amid the dominance of the main upward trend, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line. 

Therefore we expect the stock to return higher, targeting the pivotal resistance of $72.82, provided the support of $52.48 holds on.

Trend forecast for today: Likely Bullish