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First it was a group of children in Montana. Then, in Portugal, a group sued their local governments for allowing climate change to happen. The Montana group even won. It’s open season for suing governments—and Big Oil.
Of course, the supermajors have been a top target for environmentalist groups and some local authorities in the U.S. for years, but the lawsuits have not really resulted in any significant victories for the plaintiffs—yet.
But now it seems that anyone who has reason to be unhappy with their lot can just take Big Oil to court, which is exactly what one Belgian farmer did a month ago. According to Hugues Falys, “Climate change is having a tangible impact on my work and life: yield losses, extra work, and the stress that comes from dealing with a disrupted crop calendar.”
“My profession is intimately linked to the climate. In recent years, climate change has caused farmers a great deal of damage and left us uncertain about the future,” the farmer explained in March. Yet rather than suing all the Big Oil majors, Falys singled out TotalEnergies—possibly because it is the largest fuel distributor in Belgium.
Falys’s case opens in mid-April, and it may be interesting to keep an eye on developments in the courtroom as a possible sign of things to come. Meanwhile, Shell’s appeal against a landmark climate ruling by a Dutch court also began this month in The Hague.
Back in 2021, the District Court in The Hague ordered the oil supermajor to slash its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 in a first-of-its-kind ruling in a climate case brought by environmentalists that could set precedents for other oil companies. The court said Shell must start doing this immediately and include the so-called Scope 3 emissions, those generated by the use of its producers, per the order.
Shell appealed the ruling and, at the hearing, will argue that the original ruling had no legal basis and that it also overstepped the boundaries of judiciary authority, per the Financial Times. The environmentalist organization that won the original case, for its part, will present the same argument it used in 2021: that Shell has an obligation to act in accordance with studies suggesting the oil and gas industry causes changes in weather patterns and in accordance with international agreements such as the Paris Agreement.
Meanwhile, that same group of activists, Friends of the Earth, is threatening to sue ING—a Dutch lender that, like all lenders, does business with the oil and gas industry. The reason: that the bank does business with the oil and gas industry.
In January this year, Friends of the Earth sent the CEO of ING, Steven van Rijswijk, a notice of legal liability, informing him that the bank had violated its legal obligations “by contributing to dangerous climate change.”
In another remarkable development in the litigation world, a climate NGO claims that Big Oil majors can be sued for what they call “climate homicide.” The theory is that Big Oil knew about climate change but hid it, while climate change caused fatalities. For now, many believe this theory is outlandish and it would break down in court but its authors are not giving up, saying there has been interest from prosecutors.
Suing Big Oil is already a business, and in some cases it can be a lucrative business. Pushing the boundaries of what grievances can be taken to court is a marked feature of the litigation push against Big Oil—and a sign of tough times to come for an industry with a big climate change target on its back.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
Lately, the energy sector has garnered the most momentum amongst 11 U.S. market sectors after rocketing 11.5% over the past 30 days; in comparison, the utilities sector has posted the second-highest gains after climbing 6.6% while the S&P 500 has notched 1.3% higher over the timeframe.
“It’s headlines, not fundamentals” that lifted WTI, Mizuho’s Robert Yawger says, adding the biggest impact by the Middle East conflict has, so far, been to raise the cost of transport and insurance for ships plying the Red Sea. However, he has conceded that the latest strike in Syria “just ticks that much closer to dragging Iranian production into the conflict. Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity meant to turn down the heat on the situation, there is definitely a chance the Iranians response will not be as measured this time,” Yawger says.
However, not all analysts think that the oil price rally is merely being driven by headlines and sentiment. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that oil fundamentals remain strong and oil prices are set to trade in the lower $90s. StanChart has pointed out that fundamentals in oil markets remain strong, leaving OPEC with ample room to increase output in Q3 without either causing inventories to rise or prices to weaken. Related: Oil Surges Over $90 as UAE Cuts Diplomatic Ties with Israel
According to StanChart, one of the remarkable features of this year’s oil price rally is that market bulls have largely been missing in action. StanChart notes that Wall Street remains guarded about the oil price outlook, with the analysts’ Q2 Brent forecast of USD 94/bbl currently the only forecast above USD 90/bbl among 34 Wall Street forecasts. Indeed, both the median and the mean of the Q2 Bloomberg consensus panel currently stand at USD 83/bbl, virtually unchanged from the beginning of the year despite the markets tightening considerably. StanChart notes that even erstwhile oil price bulls have relatively low Q2 price forecasts. The bearish price views would be justified if fundamentals were looking weak, inventories were high and/or’ OPEC policy appeared uncertain or if geopolitics appeared benign. However, StanChart points out that none of these conditions hold, with the exact opposite being true. StanChart concedes that this cautious approach may yet prove to be correct, but says that several months of tighter fundamental readings and a near USD 15/bbl YTD price rally could finally persuade the bulls to cross the aisle.
Further Oil Price Gains
The latest Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) data released by the EIA on 29 March puts the all-time record high for U.S. crude oil output at 13.295mb/d, which was the country’s average output in both November and December 2023. StanChart has, however, predicted that U.S. output will remain flat with the all-time high not likely to be surpassed until August 2024 and again in October.
StanChart reckons that the U.S. market swung into a deficit of over 1.7 mb/d in both February and March, with the seasonal recovery in demand offsetting the recovery in U.S. output from its January low. The commodity experts estimate there was a counter-seasonal Q1 inventory draw of 1.12 mb/d, which led to a significant tightening compared with the inventory build recorded in Q1-2023. StanChart attributes the ongoing oil price rally to the 3 mb/d relative improvement from Q1-2023, and sees further price gains coming in Q2-2024.
Thankfully for the bulls, a section of Wall Street is beginning to warm up to oil and gas stocks.
According to Citi, Energy (XLE) is now the most crowded U.S. quant factor, noting that the sector tends to underperform over the next one to six months when it becomes red-hot. However, not everybody is convinced by the energy sector’s huge momentum. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley remains pessimistic about the U.S. stock market in general; however, MS has upgraded energy stocks to overweight from neutral, noting that energy companies have lagged the performance of oil, and the sector is favorably valued.
“Taking the Fed’s recent messaging into account and assuming it is less concerned about inflation or looser financial conditions, commodity-oriented cyclicals and energy, in particular, could be due for a catch-up,” they have said.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
WTI crude oil’s current bullish trend, closely following Brent crude’s movements, has placed it at a crucial point for traders. This trend, driven by a mix of geopolitical tensions and economic factors, is pivotal in determining the future direction of oil prices.
Heightened Geopolitical Tensions Influencing Market
The surge in WTI crude oil prices is primarily due to escalating geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, especially tensions involving Israel and Iran. Such conflicts often lead to uncertainties in oil supply, thereby influencing global oil prices. This situation has directly contributed to the upward movement of WTI prices.
Brent Crude’s Impact on WTI
Parallel to these geopolitical developments, Brent crude has experienced a significant rally, surpassing $91 per barrel. This upward trend in Brent, a global oil benchmark, has directly influenced WTI prices. The close correlation between these two benchmarks means that trends in Brent often have a similar effect on WTI, as seen in the current market situation.
Economic Factors Shaping the Oil Market
In addition to geopolitical issues, economic elements are also shaping the oil market. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policies and the global economic health significantly impact oil prices. The Fed’s measures to manage inflation and promote economic stability are crucial in this context. A strong economic recovery can lead to increased oil demand, supporting…
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For a second consecutive month, Saudi Arabia raised the price of Arab Light, its flagship grade selling in Asia, by more than expected.
Aramco set the official selling price (OSP) of Arab Light for Asia for May by $0.30 per barrel to a premium of $2.00 over the Oman/Dubai average, the benchmark off which Middle Eastern crude going to Asia is priced.
This is the second consecutive increase in the price of Saudi oil selling in Asia, after Aramco had raised in March the OSPs for Asian buyers for April, following the extension of the OPEC+ production cut agreement until the end of the first half of the year. The price for the country’s flagship Arab Light grade was raised by $0.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average for April.
Now the increase for May is $0.30 per barrel, the upper end of refining sources’ expectations polled by Reuters earlier this week. The Reuters survey of five refining sources showed that they expected Arab Light crude prices for May to be hiked by between $0.20 and $0.30 per barrel over the Middle Eastern benchmark. A Bloomberg survey of traders and refiners expected an increase of $0.10 per barrel.
Middle Eastern crude benchmarks have rallied in recent days, along with the increase in the entire crude complex as Brent prices topped $90 per barrel this week amid a tightening market and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia typically announces around the fifth of each month its crude pricing for the following month and doesn’t comment on price changes. This week, the OSPs came after the OPEC+ group’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) did not recommend any changes to output policy at its meeting on Wednesday.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Early on Friday morning, Brent was trading above $91 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate was closing in on $87 per barrel. The rally came amid reports that Russia may have temporarily lost as much as 15% of its refining capacity because of Ukrainian drone attacks and Iran vowed to exact revenge on Israel for the strike of its consulate in Damascus.
“Oil prices look set for further upside in the short term as a more positive economic backdrop is joined by ongoing supply tightness and rising geopolitical risks,” analysts from ANZ said, as quoted by Reuters, revising their three-month price forecast for Brent crude to $95 per barrel.
The wider Mideast tensions stemming from the Gaza war are probably at the highest in months,” Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, told Bloomberg. “Crude is reflecting that Mideast conflagration fear premium.”
The latest from the Middle East is the news that the UAE is growing cold to Israel after several years of normalized relations. The reason for the change in attitude was the Israeli strike that killed seven aid workers in Gaza. Some reports said the Emirates were “outraged” with the event.
Demand for oil, meanwhile, remains quite healthy, with the latest U.S. weekly inventory report revealing declines in both gasoline and middle distillate stocks. This demand is set to rise further, especially in middle distillates as the manufacturing industry in the country gathers momentum, Reuters’ market analyst John Kemp wrote in a recent column.
While this is happening, OPEC+ reaffirmed its commitment to production limits at its latest meeting earlier this week. Even though there were overproducers again, prices rose after the meeting because the group signaled it was about to get those overproducers in line, demanding compensation for their excess production.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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Source: Evgeny Karandaev/ShutterStock.com
When speaking about arabica coffee, Citi analyst Aakash Doshi noted that prices may increase in both the short term and the long term. This has the firm providing a coffee price forecast of $1.88 per pound to $2.15 per pound for 2024.
Doshi said the following about this 2024 coffee price forecast in a note to clients obtained by CNBC:
“The current move can largely be attributed to a heat wave in Vietnam affecting Robusta coffee production and as a result, providing carryover support for premium Arabica beans.”
Other factors are also weighing on the price of coffee recently. That includes more consumers choosing it as a natural source of energy in the morning. This comes amid a movement of customers seeking out more organic options for their food and drink.
If that demand continues to increase, it could also cause the price of coffee to rise further. That’s something commodity traders will want to keep in mind for 2024.
Coffee isn’t the only commodity that is seeing stark price increases recently. Cocoa is also undergoing a rally lately. You can learn more about that here.
Investors looking for more of the most recent stock market news will want to keep reading!
We have all of the hottest market news ready to go on Thursday! Among that is what’s happening with shares of Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Nikola (NASDAQ:NKLA) and Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CGC) stock today. You can catch up on all of this below!
On the date of publication, William White did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2024/04/coffee-price-forecast-2024-how-much-higher-will-record-coffee-prices-go/.
©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC
-US unemployment claims increased by more than expected in the last week, according to Labor Department statistics, as labor market conditions gradually ease. This came after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed caution on Wednesday about the timing of future interest rate cuts, after recent data has showed higher-than-expected job growth and inflation.
Tensions escalated in the region after the Israeli air strike on the Iranian embassy killed its top officials. Russian supply is already tight due to OPEC+ output compliance and supply concerns from oil refineries after last month’s Ukrainian attack, according to analysts
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Oil And Natural Gas Corporation ended the previous trading day at a closing price of Rs 275.35, with a 6-month beta of 1.02, indicating a slightly higher volatility compared to the market.
Oil And Natural Gas Corporation saw a decrease in its stock price, closing at Rs 275.35 yesterday, with a one-month return of -3.65%. Investors are closely monitoring the company’s performance amidst market fluctuations.
Oil And Natural Gas Corporation closed at Rs 275.35 yesterday with a trading volume of 24,624,383 shares, surpassing the average 7-day volume of 15,592,348 shares.
08:41:18 AM IST, 05 April 2024
Oil And Natural Gas Corporation ended the previous day at a closing price of Rs 275.35, with a remarkable 3-month return of 25.32%. The company’s stock has shown strong performance over the past quarter, outperforming market expectations.
08:33:41 AM IST, 05 April 2024
Oil And Natural Gas Corporation ended the previous trading day at a closing price of Rs 275.35, marking a decrease of 2.31% from the day before. The trading volume for the day stood at 22,60,0929 units.