• Silver price gives up a majority of intraday gains after the release of the upbeat US private employment data for January.
• Strong labor demand would force the Fed to maintain the status quo for longer.
• Investors expect the trade war would be limited between the US and China.

Silver price (XAG/USD) surrenders almost its entire intraday gains and falls back to near $32.00 in Wednesday’s North American session. The white metal faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) attempts to gain ground on the back of upbeat United States (US) ADP Employment Change data for January. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, finds buyers’ demand near 107.40 but is still over 0.4% down intraday.

The agency reported that 183K new workers were hired by the private sector last month, which were significantly higher than estimates of 150K, and the prior release of 176K, revised significantly higher from 122K.

Signs of strong labor demand would force Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to keep interest rates at their current levels for longer. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that they will make monetary policy adjustments only after seeing “real progress in inflation or at least some weakness in labor market”. Technically, the Fed’s stance for keeping interest rates steady weighs on precious metals, such as Silver.

Meanwhile, investors are also doubting the Silver outlook amid receding fears of a lethal global trade war. Market participants expect the trade war to remain restricted between China and the US. Investors have interpreted President Donald trump’s tariff agenda as more a negotiating tool after his decision of suspending the order of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

While 10% tariffs on China have come into effect from February, and in retaliation, China has also imposed levies on the US.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price strives to break above the immediate resistance of $32.50, which is plotted from the December 9 high. The outlook of the white metal remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping higher near $30.90.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 60.00-80.00 range, suggesting that the momentum is bullish.

Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline from the August 8 low of $26.45 will be the key support for the Silver price around $29.50. While, the October 31 high of $33.90 will be the key barrier.

Silver daily chart

 

Brent oil price crawls downwards calmly, and the technical indicators keep providing the negative signals, waiting for more decline to test 75.66$ initially, reminding you that breaking this level will push the price towards 74.00$ as a next target.

 

In general, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid and active for today unless the price rallied to breach 77.05$ and hold above it.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 74.90$ support and 77.90$ resistance.

 

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price sits at highest level on record above $2,850 early Wednesday.    
• Uncertainty over US President Trump’s tariffs, impending US-Sino trade war underpin Gold price.  
• Deteriorating risk sentiment on China return could revive the haven demand for the US Dollar.
• Overbought conditions on the daily chart continue to caution Gold buyers ahead of US jobs data.

Gold price is holding the record-setting rally early Wednesday, hanging close to the levels seen ever near $2,850. Traders gear up for the upcoming US private sector employment data and US-China trade talks for Gold price action.

Gold price keeps an eye on US data and US-China trade talks

The buying interest around the traditional store of value, the Gold price, remains unabated so far this week, courtesy of the growing uncertainties over US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and their impact on the global growth and inflation outlook.

The Trump administration’s tariff pushback on Canada and Mexico for a month and the US-Sino trade war keep investors on edge, especially with Chinese traders returning after a week-long Lunar New Year holiday.

A mixed set of US economic data releases in the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Jobs Openings survey help maintain the bets for two US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year even as Fed policymakers express caution on further rate cuts. This remains supportive of the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

However, the Gold price could face a headwind in the near term if the US succeeds in ending the Israel-Hamas geopolitical conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump met on Tuesday at the White House and discussed the elimination of Hamas, Iran strategy and renewed Israel-Saudi normalization.

The 47^th American President, however, expressed uncertainty on whether the ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel will hold. “ Gold tends to benefit in times of geopolitical instability and market turmoil.

Looking ahead, the impending trade talks between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are eagerly awaited. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that a Trump-Xi call still needed to be scheduled. “President Xi did reach out to President Trump to speak about this, maybe to begin a negotiation. So we’ll see how that call goes,” Leavitt told Fox Business Network earlier on Tuesday.

In the meantime, the US employment data might reclaim the spotlight, given the increasing uncertainty around the Fed’s scope and timing of interest rate cuts. The US ADP Employment Change is seen arriving at 150K in January after registering 122K in December. Later in American trading, the US ISM Services PMI data will also offer fresh trading impetus, followed by speeches from Fed policymakers Austan Goolsbee and Michelle Bowman.

 Gold price remains at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) dynamics amid a cautious market environment heading into the US data releases.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart warrants caution for Gold optimists as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains within the overbought territory, currently near 75.

If buyers face exhaustion, a pullback could be in the offing before the uptrend resumes.

If a correction sets in, Gold price could challenge the $2,800 round level, below which the February 3 low of $2,772 will be tested.

Additional declines will put the January 30 low of $2,754 at risk. The last line of defense for buyers is seen at the 21-day SMA at $2,731.

However, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100-day SMA Bull Cross keep hopes alive for buyers.

On the upside, the Gold price needs a daily candlestick closing above the $2,850 psychological level to refresh record highs near $2,880 en route to the $3,000 round level.

 

Amid the severe volatility in global financial markets, gold continues to shine as a safe haven, setting a series of new record highs, having surpassed the $2,800 per ounce barrier for the first time in history 

As global concerns about trade tensions escalate—especially after the United States imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, with the European Union on the way—investors are turning to the precious metal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty 

The massive surge in gold prices since the beginning of this year reflects the bullish market movement dominating the precious metal since March 2024, driven by several key factors that lead investors to view gold as a safe haven 

One of the main reasons for this market is the global monetary easing cycle we have witnessed recently, as many central banks have significantly lowered interest rates to stimulate their local economies 

These easing measures, which boost the global economy, make gold—an asset that does not yield fixed returns—more attractive to investors looking to protect their capital 

Furthermore, escalating global geopolitical tensions contribute to increased demand for gold, as investors worry about political and economic uncertainty on a worldwide scale 

Consequently, speculations are growing about the possibility of prices reaching the $3,000 per ounce mark in the near term, as instability continues and investors flock to safe-haven assets 

Will this upward market continue? And what factors might push gold to unprecedented levels? In this report, we review the key drivers affecting gold prices and future forecasts for the precious metal in light of current economic and trade developments 

Trump’s Trade Policy 

After returning to the White House, President Donald Trump began implementing his protectionist trade policies, as promised during his campaign, aiming to reduce the trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing 

One of his most prominent campaign promises was to impose new tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports, in an attempt to force Beijing into making trade concessions and protect American industries 

He also threatens to impose a 10% global tariff on all imported goods, under the pretext of bolstering domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign sources 

In addition, Trump intends to renegotiate several trade agreements that he deems insufficiently beneficial to the United States, and he may use economic pressure on allies to secure more favorable terms 

It is also expected that the new American administration will continue targeting companies that relocate their production abroad with new taxes and sanctions 

However, these policies may lead to an escalation of trade tensions with major countries such as China and the European Union, which could spark fears of rising prices and inflation within the United States 

Overall, Trump’s second administration has reshaped American trade policy with a more aggressive approach, one that will boost domestic manufacturing but may have significant repercussions on the global economy 

US Tariffs on Canada and Mexico 

As promised by President Donald Trump last month, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday, February 4 

White House officials stated that there would be no exceptions to these tariffs 

During his campaign, Donald Trump vowed to impose comprehensive tariffs abroad as part of an expansive plan to reshape the American economy and its relationships with other countries 

However, during the first two weeks of his term, his threats sparked uncertainty as some leaders believed his threats were merely a negotiating tactic 

These rapidly escalating trade conflicts represent the most aggressive protectionist move by an American president in nearly a century, leading to widespread selling in global financial markets amid potential repercussions on inflation rates, geopolitical dynamics, and global economic growth 

At the last moment, President Donald Trump suspended his threat on Monday, February 3, agreeing to a 30-day grace period in exchange for Canada and Mexico committing to concessions on illegal immigration and drug trafficking 

Both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced their agreement to enhance border protection efforts in response to Trump’s demands for stringent measures to curb illegal immigration and drug smuggling 

US-China Trade Tensions 

With the implementation of a 10% tariff on China starting Tuesday, Beijing retaliated by imposing its own tariffs on certain American imports, further intensifying trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies 

The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced tariffs of 15% on American coal and liquefied natural gas, 10% on crude oil, and on agricultural equipment, as well as on a limited number of imported trucks and large-engine sedans 

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce and Customs Administration also reported imposing export restrictions on certain critical minerals used in electronics, military equipment, and solar panels 

Separately, the National Market Regulation Administration stated that China would cooperate with the American tech giant Google over alleged antitrust violations 

During his first term in 2018, Trump launched a fierce two-year trade war with China, targeting its massive trade surplus with the United States, which led to global supply chain disruptions and significant damage to the global economy 

In an attempt to end the dispute, China agreed in 2020 to increase its annual purchases of American goods by $200 billion, but the implementation of the agreement was hindered by the COVID-19 pandemic, further exacerbating China’s annual trade deficit with the United States 

In a new escalation, Trump warned that tariffs could be raised further if China did not take effective measures to stop the flow of fentanyl, stating, “I hope China stops sending fentanyl to us, or tariffs will skyrocket”; while China labeled fentanyl as “an American problem” and promised countermeasures 

Analyst Insights on Tariffs 

• Manzur Mohieddin, Chief Economist at Capital.com, said that Trump’s early blow is likely to affect investor confidence.
• Mohieddin added that there was a consensus—including among us—that American tariffs would only threaten economic forecasts in the latter half of 2025 after prolonged negotiations.
• John Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist at Saxo, stated that if these tariff moves continue, we are effectively in a trade war with all its associated repercussions on growth, prices, and supply chains.
• Jigar Trivedi, Senior Analyst at Reliance Securities, noted that despite expectations of higher gold due to safe-haven demand, a stronger dollar and expectations of lower interest rates are putting additional downward pressure.
• Matt Simpson, Chief Analyst at Citi Index, suggested that this might be a short-term emotional reaction, and he believes that gold will continue to outperform this year amid inflation threats and upcoming trade wars.

Global Monetary Easing 

Major central banks in the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, and Mexico continue their cycle of monetary easing and interest rate cuts, resulting in new liquidity injections into the markets.

Market experts say that in the medium term there is clear optimism for stocks, residential real estate, gold, and even cryptocurrencies thanks to the global monetary easing cycle.

Robert Kiyosaki’s Forecasts 

Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” wrote on platform X that he expects gold to reach $3,300 per ounce following Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election.

Kiyosaki explained that Donald Trump wants a weak U.S. dollar to boost exports, create jobs, and open new factories, which will drive gold prices up from $2,800 to $3,300 per ounce before the end of 2025.

$3,000 per Ounce 

Citibank Group stated: We expect gold to reach $3,000 per ounce within the next six months.

Gold, which retains its value as a hedge against inflation, tends to perform well during times of economic uncertainty when investors steer away from riskier assets like stocks.

Gold bullion prices hit an all-time high of $2,860.67 per ounce on Wednesday, February 5, 2025.

Spot Gold Prices 

By the end of 2024, spot gold prices rose by more than 27%, marking the second consecutive annual gain and the largest annual gain since 2010, driven by the generosity of global central banks and geopolitical tensions.

Gold prices usually have an inverse relationship with interest rates; as rates decline, gold becomes more attractive compared to fixed income assets like bonds.

Types of Demand for Gold 

Industrial Demand 

• Electronics: Gold is widely used in electronic components such as printed circuits and motherboards in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices.
• Renewable Energy: Gold is used in renewable technologies such as solar panels and lithium-ion batteries.
• Automotive: Gold is used in car engines to improve performance and efficiency.
• Household Products: Gold is incorporated in household appliances to enhance their functionality and efficiency.

Investment Demand 

• Jewelry: Gold is a precious metal used in the production of jewelry and art pieces.
• Coins: Gold is used in minting coins for its value and stability.
• Safe Haven: Gold bars are considered a safe haven for investors during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): ETFs allow investors to buy and sell gold without the need to physically own it.

Global Central Banks 

• Global central banks hold gold reserves as part of their foreign exchange reserves.
• Gold reserves provide a form of insurance against currency fluctuations and geopolitical risks.
• Central banks can buy or sell gold depending on their monetary policy goals and economic conditions.

Largest Gold Buyer 

China and India typically compete for the title of the world’s largest gold buyer, but this scenario changed last year as Chinese consumption of jewelry, bullion, and coins reached record levels. Demand for gold jewelry in China increased by 10% while demand in India fell by 6%, and Chinese investments in bullion and coins surged by 28%. 

Indian Gold Demand 

The Indian government reduced import duties on gold and silver to 6% from 15% last year, improving actual demand forecasts and supporting jewelry manufacturing in the world’s second-largest consumer of gold bullion 

Top Gold Price Forecasts for 2025 

• Citibank Group forecasts gold prices to rise to $3,000 per ounce over the next six months.
• Goldman Sachs Group forecasts gold prices to reach $2,900 per ounce this year, driven by the bullish market.
• JP Morgan Bank forecasts gold to hit $3,100 per ounce by the end of 2025.
• Morgan Stanley forecasts gold to reach $3,200 per ounce by the end of 2025.

Analyst Insights on Gold Prices 

• Kyle Roda, Chief Financial Analyst at Capital.com, stated that gold is likely to remain on an upward trajectory in 2025, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of rising government debt.
• Julia Khandosko, CEO of Mind Money Brokerage, said that global trends will continue to push the gold market forward, with steady and gradual growth.
• HSBC Bank stated that we expect stable prices in 2025, though a possible decline in actual demand and an increase in supply might limit gains.
• Yap Jon Rong, Market Analyst at IG, expects further gold price increases due to uncertainty over trade measures.
• Jonny Tevis, Strategic Expert at UBS, noted that the rise in gold is driven by a decline in real interest rates and positive investor sentiment towards the metal.
• Jigar Bandit, Head of Commodities at BNP Paribas, expects central banks to continue buying gold amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Gold Price Milestones 

• August 2008: Gold hit a low of $251.90 per ounce.
• February 2025: Gold reached an all-time high of $2,860.67 per ounce.
• February 2025: Gold recorded its highest closing price ever at $2,842.27 per ounce.

Best Historical Performance of Gold Prices 

• 2007: Best annual performance with an increase of approximately 31%.
• Q1 2016: Best quarterly performance with an increase of over 16%.
• September 1999: Best monthly performance with an increase of approximately 17%.

Top FAQs About Gold 

Is Gold Price Suitable for Investment? 

Gold is trading around $2,800 per ounce, and in light of forecasts indicating a bullish market in 2025, we believe that levels between $2,750 and $2,700 are suitable for investment, with a long-term target above $3,000 per ounce 

How to Invest in Gold? 

Gold can be invested in several ways:

1. Buying physical gold such as coins or bars.
2. Investing through gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on global exchanges.
3. Purchasing shares in gold mining and refining companies.
4. Trading gold futures, options, and other derivative contracts.

Will Gold Reach $3,000 per Ounce? 

In light of recent developments in global markets and the economic and trade risks, it is entirely possible for gold prices to rise to $3,000 per ounce this year, with the potential to hit new historic levels if strong industrial and investment demand factors materialize 

Is Gold Expected to Rise in 2025? 

Yes, most major institutions and banks forecast that the precious metal will continue its upward trajectory this year, setting new record highs 

Gold Investment Tips 

Analysts and experts advise closely monitoring political and economic developments, and diversifying investment portfolios to include gold as part of a risk-hedging strategy 

 

 

Technical Analysis of Gold Prices 

Gold is resuming its long-term upward trend after the recent temporary downward correction experienced in recent weeks. After testing the $2536.00 levels, the price rebounded, setting new historical records up to the time of writing this report. 

 

 

A range of positive technical factors supports the continuation of the upward trend across various timeframes. On the weekly chart, based on Fibonacci extension levels of the last downward wave, the price appears poised to reach the next key level of $2946.00 and needs to hold above the support level at around $2790.00 to confirm the ongoing bullish trend. 

On the daily chart, the price is moving within an ascending channel that has been in place since the beginning of Q4 2023. After bouncing off its support last month, the price resumes its upward movement toward an expected resistance level of $2980.00 in the channel. 

 

 

Another positive catalyst in recent trading was the breakthrough of a symmetrical triangle pattern, which is considered a key to resuming the main upward trend and achieving the proposed targets, along with the positive support provided by the 50-day moving average for short- to medium-term trading. 

 

 

Looking at the instantaneous timeframes, we notice another ascending channel that carries the latest upward wave, where the current test of its resistance level requires caution in upcoming trading, as failure to break through the $2845.00 zone may force a pullback to test the channel’s support around $2786.00 before another recovery. 

 

 

In summary, the technical factors support a continuation of the upward trend and a drive to achieve additional historic levels. However, reaching the psychological barrier of $3000.00 per ounce might trigger strong sell-offs and further corrections before any new attempt to resume the long-term upward path. 

Conversely, it is crucial to note that a break below $2670.00 will derail the bullish path, forcing a downward correction that could target the $2555.00 level and extend losses down to $2375.00 before any renewed upward movement. 

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) finds difficulty to hold above 2764.75$, to move below it now, noticing that stochastic gathers the positive momentum to support the chances to rise in the upcoming sessions and surpass the mentioned level again.

 

Therefore, we expect to witness positive trades today, and the price needs to breach 2764.75$ resistance to confirm heading towards 3017.30$ that represents our next main target, taking into consideration that failing to breach the mentioned resistance will put the price under additional negative pressure that its targets begin by testing 2480.00$ areas.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 2580.00$ support and 2890.00$ resistance.

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair failed to surpass 193.30 barrier yesterday, to push it to form new negative rebound and notice its consolidation near 191.25 now, hinting its surrender to the negative track again.

 

We notice that the consolidation of the MA55 above the mentioned barrier to confirm confining trading within the negative track for now, to expect suffering additional losses by attacking 190.55 level soon, followed by repeating the pressure on 189.60 support line.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 190.55 and 192.60

 

Trend forecast: Bearish

Brent oil price rallied upwards strongly yesterday to test 77.05$ level, and attempted to breach it but it consolidated below it, as the EMA50 formed solid resistance that prevented the price to continue the rise, noticing that the price begins today with bearish bias that hints heading to resume the expected bearish trend for the upcoming period, which its targets begin by breaking 75.66$ to confirm heading towards 74.00$ as a next main station.

 

Stochastic shows negative signals that support the expected decline, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 77.05$.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 74.90$ support and 77.90$ resistance.

 

Trend forecast: Bearish

Intraday Rebound Recovers Key Levels

The drop to a new retracement low of $71.22 earlier in Tuesday’s session triggered a breakdown below the 50-Day MA at $75.23. This is generally bearish, but the intraday recovery reclaimed the 50-Day line, which is a bullish sign. Sellers had the chance to take it lower and they couldn’t do it. In other words, there was a failed breakout through a pivot level. Failed breakouts can provide signals for the opposite direction.

Whether that bullish indication continues remains to be seen. But it does show the market recognizing the 50-Day line. Therefore, it becomes a key short-term pivot level that should show signs of support if tested again. Moreover, if crude falls back below the 50-Day line and stays below it, that would be a short-term bearish sign.

Watch and Wait?

In addition to the failure of support at the 50-Day MA, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $72.32 was also exceeded to the downside. Therefore, today’s potentially bullish behavior may not result in further strength, and the correction could continue. As noted above, the first sign of further weakness would be a drop below 50-Day MA. Today’s low price would then provide the next key lower pivot level, and if that low fails as support, the 78.6% retracement is down at $70.03. It would become the next lower target. A couple more days of price history should help provide other price levels.

Upside Breakout Above $73.93

On the upside, a breakout above today’s high of $73.93 shows strength. But crude oil would be heading up into a resistance zone starting with the nearby internal trendline. There was a five-day consolidation range during the recent decline following a drop below the 200-Day MA, currently at $74.95. The area around the 200-Day MA could show some resistance on the way up, as well as the 20-Day MA.

A little above the 200-Day line is the 20-Day MA at $75.95. That looks like the next more significant upside pivot since it was tested as resistance during intraday volatility on Monday. Notice that Monday’s high of $75.82 saw resistance a little below the 20-Day MA.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Weak Price Action Tuesday

Nonetheless, Monday’s bullish action showed strength, but the day ended weak. Natural gas closed below the midpoint of the day’s trading range. The current bounce off support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement last week should have more upside to go. An advance above today’s high of $3.35 would provide the next sign of strength, followed by Monday’s high at $3.41.

First, it will have to challenge a potential resistance zone from $3.51 to $3.52, consisting of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-Day MA, respectively. Certainly, it looks likely that price zone will be tested as resistance. And be aware there is a downtrend line near to the 50-Day line. It can be used to help gauge strength or weakness.

50-Day MA is Key

The price area around the 20-Day MA, now at $3.69, would be the next higher potential resistance zone. But the 50-Day line generally has greater significance for the bull trend. In the bigger picture, following a bullish breakout it is common to eventually see a bearish correction to test that prior resistance area and see if it now represents support. And there are different degrees of retracement, which can provide clues as to strength or weakness.

Natural gas broke out of large symmetrical triangle pattern November 20 last year and that led to a rally to a peak of $4.37. The breakout level was $3.02 and last week’s swing low was $2.99. Support was seen in the around confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.03, a rising trendline, and a key prior resistance level.

Further Clarity by Mid-February

Although trendlines generally don’t provide good signals by themselves, they can assist the analysis. Notice that a downtrend line and uptrend line are converging on February 18. This means that one of those lines is broken before then and that could provide further clarity.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) faces clear negative pressure to move below 100000.00$ now, affected by stochastic negativity, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as consolidating below this level will stop the morning suggested positive scenario and lead the price to visit 95195.00$ areas on the near-term basis.

 

Now, the price needs to trade above 100000.00$ again to revive the bullish wave that its first main target located at 105000.00$.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 97500.00$ support and 105000.00$ resistance.

 

Trend forecast: Bullish