World oil prices today

In the past week, world gasoline and oil prices continued to decrease. WTI crude oil decreased from 69.23 USD/barrel at the end of last week to 68.78 USD/barrel at the end of this week. Overall for the week, WTI oil prices decreased by 0.45 USD/barrel, equivalent to about 0.65% compared to the end of last week.

Brent oil fell from 72.60 USD/barrel at the end of last week to 72.12 USD/barrel at the end of this week. Over the past week, Brent oil prices fell 0.48 USD/barrel, equivalent to about 0.66% compared to the end of last week.

According to analysts, world oil prices continued to fall last week as investors expect negotiations between the US and Iran to achieve positive results, contributing to cooling tensions in the Middle East and reducing the risk of supply disruptions.

However, experts note that the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is still significantly lower than normal. This shows that geopolitical risks have not been completely eliminated and are still a factor supporting oil prices.

Closing the last trading session of the second quarter, oil prices recorded the strongest monthly and quarterly decrease since the Covid-19 pandemic broke out. According to analysts, although the market still partially assesses geopolitical risks, the increasing number of oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf region has helped free up previously stranded ships, thereby temporarily improving supply.

In that context, Morgan Stanley bank forecasts that the global oil market will have a surplus of about 4.8 million barrels/day by 2027.

Experts also believe that the OPEC+ alliance is likely to continue to raise production targets at the meeting on July 5. If approved, this decision will add more supply to the market in the context of weakening oil prices and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returning to normal.

In the opposite direction, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that US crude oil inventories last week fell to their lowest level since 2018 due to increased demand from oil refineries. The country’s gasoline inventories also recorded a decrease.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley bank forecasts that the global oil market will have a surplus of about 4.8 million barrels/day by 2027.

UBS Bank also lowered its Brent oil price forecast due to the increasing volume of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, UBS lowered its Brent oil price forecast for the third quarter to 80 USD/barrel, 25 USD lower than the previous forecast; the forecast for the fourth quarter was also lowered by 10 USD to 80 USD/barrel. At the same time, this bank lowered its Brent oil price forecast for 2027 to 75 USD/barrel, 10 USD lower than the previous forecast.

Domestic gasoline prices today

On July 5th, retail gasoline and oil prices according to the price list announced by Petrolimex in region 1 and region 2 are as follows:

The above domestic retail gasoline and oil prices were adjusted by Petrolimex according to the inter-ministry of Industry and Trade – Finance’s management period from 4:00 PM on July 2nd. Accordingly, gasoline and oil prices simultaneously decreased.

Gasoline and oil discount today

– Tu Luc Petroleum Joint Stock Company 1:

+ Diesel oil 0.05S – II: 0 VND/liter;

+ Diesel oil 0.001S-V: 0 VND/liter.

+ E10 RON 95-III gasoline: 50 VND/liter

+ E5 RON 92 – II gasoline: 0 VND/liter

– MIPEC Petroleum Trading and Trading Co., Ltd. – MIPEC Petro (applied to the Northern region):

+ E10 gasoline: 400 VND/liter.

+ Diesel oil 0.05S-II: 100 VND/liter.

Domestic gasoline and oil price forecast for the next period

According to a representative of a gasoline and oil business, it is predicted that in the next price adjustment period, retail gasoline and oil prices may have opposite adjustments.

In which:

– E10 gasoline reduced by about 600 VND/liter;

– E5 RON 92 – II gasoline reduced by about 600 VND/liter;

– Diesel oil increased by about 700 VND/liter.

Copper price settles above the moving average 55 near $5.9500, to announce delaying the bearish corrective attempts, noticing its rally to settle near $6.1500 level, surrendering to the sideways track, which is represented by the current support and $6.3000 level that represents an extra barrier against the current trading.

The price might form sideways trading until surpassing one of the mentioned levels, note that reaching below the extra support and holding below it will open the way for activating the bearish corrective track, to expect targeting $5.8200 and $5.7100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.9500 and $6.3000

Trend forecast: Sideways 

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market turned down slightly after a strong increase in the previous session. The average price was recorded at 92,900 VND/kg, down 100 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices decreased by 200 VND/kg, down to 92,800 VND/kg. Gia Lai also recorded a similar decrease, bringing the purchase price back to 92,800 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices today decreased by 300 VND/kg, down to 92,300 VND/kg and continue to be the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

The old Dak Nong area had the highest purchase price, reaching 93,000 VND/kg and no changes were recorded compared to the previous update.

Thus, domestic coffee prices currently range from 92,300-93,000 VND/kg. The gap between the region with the highest and lowest prices is 700 VND/kg.

Despite the downward adjustment, the domestic coffee price level still maintained above 92,000 VND/kg, significantly higher than the price range below 90,000 VND/kg at the end of June.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank is recorded at 26,073 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange simultaneously decreased in the last trading session of the week, while the New York Arabica exchange was closed for US Independence Day.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 67 USD/ton, equivalent to 1.77%, to 3,716 USD/ton.

During the session, the contract price at one point reached 3,783 USD/ton but then decreased to the lowest level of 3,675 USD/ton. Trading volume reached 5,306 lots.

Robusta futures in November 2026 decreased by 66 USD/ton, equivalent to 1.76%, to 3,679 USD/ton.

The January and March 2027 terms both decreased by 66 USD/ton, down to 3,646 USD/ton and 3,614 USD/ton respectively.

The July 2026 contract was recorded at 3,903 USD/ton, down 67 USD/ton. However, the trading volume only reached 2 lots because the contract had approached its expiration date, so the September term reflected the market trend more clearly.

For Arabica, the US Intercontinental Exchange did not open on July 3 due to the National Day holiday. Therefore, the price list on July 5 still reflects the results of the pre-holiday trading session.

Accordingly, Arabica futures in September 2026 stood at 301.20 US cents/lb, down 8.70 cents/lb, equivalent to 2.81%.

December 2026 futures are at 286.30 US cents/lb, down 8.55 cents/lb. The March and May 2027 terms are at 281.10 US cents/lb and 280.90 US cents/lb, respectively.

Coffee price assessment

According to financial data from Barchart, coffee prices at one point reached their highest level in about 4 months and 3 weeks before the differentiation.

Arabica prices fell sharply in the most recent session due to profit-taking and liquidation of buy positions before the long holiday in the US. Previously, this commodity had increased rapidly for about 3 weeks due to concerns about unfavorable weather in Brazil.

Heavy rain in Brazil disrupted harvesting activities and increased the risk of affecting coffee quality. Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia forecasting company said that Minas Gerais state recorded 31.3 mm of rainfall in the week ending June 28, nearly 20 times higher than the historical average of the same period.

Minas Gerais is Brazil’s largest coffee producing region. Rains during harvesting can slow down coffee harvesting, transportation and drying, and cause fruit or seeds to decline in quality.

Standard Arabica inventories on the US Intercontinental Exchange decreased to 375,079 bags, the lowest level in about 2 years and 3 months. Available supply on the exchange decreased, continuing to create support for prices after the adjustment.

Meanwhile, Robusta inventories on the European Intercontinental Exchange have increased to 4,053 lots, the highest level in nearly 3 months. The replenishment of standard goods is one of the factors putting pressure on Robusta prices.

The market is also continuing to monitor El Niño developments. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration assesses that there is a 63% chance that El Niño will reach very strong intensity in the period from November 2026 to January 2027.

El Niño may affect rainfall in Brazil during the coffee flowering period in September and October, as well as Robusta production conditions in some Asian countries. However, the specific impact depends on the intensity and timing of appearance in each region.

In terms of pressure, the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture forecasts that Brazil’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year may reach 66.7 million bags.

Rabobank of the Netherlands also forecasts that the global Arabica market will continue to have a surplus. Meanwhile, the prospect of increased Vietnamese coffee production and exports may add more Robusta supply to the market.