• Gold price looks to build on last week’s rebound from six-day lows, retakes $3,350.
• The US Dollar holds steady amid a slightly upbeat mood, but tariff angst lingers.
• Gold price stays above key daily moving averages as the RSI holds above the midline.  

Gold price is extending the turnaround from six-day lows of $3,310 early Monday, making another attempt above the $3,350 barrier.  

Gold price looks north amid trade woes, Trump-Powell spat

Gold buyers keep the upper hand as the US Dollar (USD) pauses its late rebound on Friday, entering a consolidative mode, with attention turning to Tuesday’s speech by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell for further trading impetus.

Monday’s data-docket is a quiet one, and hence, tariff-related developments will continue to dominate the sentiment around the USD-denominated Gold price.

Traders remain expectant of encouraging earnings reports from American tech giants, including Alphabet Inc., due later this week.

Despite a mild optimism, investors remain wary about US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans against the European Union (EU) as the August 1 deadline approaches.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Friday that he is still confident a deal could be reached with the EU.

The Financial Times (FT) late Friday reported three people briefed on the talks as saying that Trump is eyeing at least a minimum tariff of 15% to 20% in a deal with the EU.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) quoted some sources reporting on Monday that “US officials have informed the EU’s trade chief that President Trump is likely to demand further concessions in ongoing trade talks, including a higher baseline tariff of 15% or more on most European goods, a significant increase from the previously discussed 10%.”

In response, the bloc warned of strong retaliation if no deal is reached with the US by August 1, per the WSJ.

Lingering tariff tensions bode well for the traditional safe-haven Gold price as markets digest the Japanese political drama.

The Japanese ruling coalition, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its ally Komeito, lost control of the upper house in an election on Sunday, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s hold as a tariff deadline looms, Reuters reports.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced ‘buy the fact’ trades on the expected election outcome, dragging USD/JPY lower. The renewed USD/JPY weakness capped the USD’s recovery, helping Gold price build on the previous upswing.

Furthermore, the ongoing criticism of Fed Chair Powell by Trump also prompts traders to temporarily forgo the USD in search of safety in the bright metal.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price is holding comfortably above all major Simple Moving Averages (SMA) while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points higher above the midline.

The technical setup, therefore, appears in favor of Gold buyers, with the immediate resistance located at the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3377.

Further north, the $3,400 round level will challenge bearish commitments, with more upside opening toward the static resistance at around $3,440.

Alternatively, strong support is aligned at around $3,330, the confluence of the 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA.

Sellers must find a strong foothold below that demand area to test the 38.2% Fibo level of the same rally at $3,297 before targeting the July low of $3,283.

The EURJPY pair declined in its last intraday levels, to gain a positive momentum that might assist it to recover and rise again, and it attempts to offload its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of the negative signals from there, to test a main bullish trend line on the short-term basis, accompanied by its lean on the support of its EMA50, reinforcing the importance of this area as a strong support that prevents the price turn to the bearish track on the near-term basis.

Therefore, our expectations suggest the (EURJPY) price rise in its upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by the stability of the support at 172.25, to target the critical resistance at 173.25 preparing to attack it.

The expected trading range for today is between 172.00 and 174.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Bull Hammer Breakout Triggers

On Thursday, crude oil triggered a breakout of the hammer and rallied to test resistance around the lower line of the bear flag pattern, which was a support line before. The one-day bullish reversal hit a high of $67.55, at the time of this writing and looks likely to close in a similar position. That would confirm the hammer breakout with a daily close above Wednesday’s high and at the top of the day’s trading range. Trading continues near the highs of the day so it is possible a new high will be reached before today’s session ends.

Rising in Resistance Zone

The 20-Day MA, which represents potential resistance and is now at $67.69, is set to converge with the lower boundary line of the flag. Notice that the 20-Day line (purple) was recognized as resistance over many days the past couple of weeks as the flag formed. When two or more indicators identify a similar potential resistance zone, either signs of resistance are seen or an upside breakout triggers.

A bull breakout above today’s high and then the 20-Day MA would show further strength. However, the rally would be rising into the flag consolidation zone where it could encounter resistance easily along the way. There is also the 200-Day MA, currently at $68.67, representing dynamic resistance across the top of the flag.

Reversal of Breakdown?

Since a rally would be counter to the bearish breakdown of the flag and channel, it may be the least expected outcome. Therefore, it could happen and may surprise on the upside given recent spikes in volatility seen since the lower swing high in April.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Gold price posts modest gains around $3,350 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Economic uncertainty and lower interest rates boost safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. 
• The upbear UoM survey might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The Gold price ( XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $3,350 during the early Asian session on Monday. Uncertainty around trade talks is likely to support Gold’s safe-haven demand as a tariff deadline with the US looms. Traders will take more cues from the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell later on Tuesday. 

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that August 1 is the deadline for countries to begin paying tariffs to the US. President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline has shifted since he announced his steep levies on trading partners on April 2, but White House officials now maintain that August 1 is a firm deadline. The uncertainty and concerns over the new tariff rates could boost the yellow metal, as it’s seen as the ultimate safe-haven asset during uncertain times. 

Additionally, the dovish remarks from the Fed officials might lift a non-yielding asset. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he continues to believe the US central bank should cut interest rates at the July meeting amid mounting risks to the economy. Analysts expect the Fed will maintain its current rates at the end of this month, with a chance standing at 94% for a hold and 6% for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut.

On the other hand, the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand might weigh on the USD-denominated Gold price in the near term. The University of Michigan’s (UoM) preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 61.8 in July from 60.7 in June. This reading came in stronger than the market expectation of 61.5.

Trade policy remained fluid throughout the week. Trump reduced Indonesian tariffs to 19% from 32% and signaled progress with Vietnam, suggesting the administration may pursue bilateral agreements before implementing broader measures. June Consumer Price Index data already showed tariff-related inflation lifting costs of core goods including audio equipment and furnishings, raising questions about Federal Reserve policy response.

Federal Reserve Independence Under Fire as Policy Outlook Changes

Markets experienced sharp volatility when rumors emerged that Trump planned to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While Trump later clarified “We’re not planning on doing it,” the episode highlighted ongoing tensions over central bank independence and policy direction.

Fed Governor Chris Waller struck a notably dovish tone, backing rate cuts and citing weakening private-sector labor data. However, inflation data complicated the outlook. Headline CPI rose 0.3% monthly to 2.7% annually, while core CPI matched estimates at 2.9% yearly. Producer Price Index remained flat, creating mixed signals for policymakers weighing tariff-driven price pressures against broader disinflationary trends.

Strong Economic Data Reduces Rate Cut Urgency

Robust U.S. economic indicators undermined aggressive easing expectations throughout the week. June retail sales surprised to the upside while initial jobless claims declined to three-month lows, reinforcing economic resilience. The data prompted markets to pare back rate cut expectations from 50 basis points to 45 basis points by year-end.

Dollar strength from solid fundamentals pressured gold as an alternative store of value. The Dollar Index gained 0.61% for the week, making bullion more expensive for international buyers while reducing the urgency for monetary accommodation.

Gold Outlook: Policy Uncertainty Supports Defensive Positioning

Fundamental crosscurrents suggest continued volatility ahead. Trade tensions provide ongoing safe-haven support while strong economic data reduces Fed dovishness. UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue underpinning gold’s defensive appeal.

• Gold price struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s late rebound from a one-week trough.
• Reduced Fed rate cut bets underpin the USD and cap the commodity amid a positive risk tone.
• Persistent trade-related uncertainties might continue to offer support to the precious metal.

Gold price (XAU/USD) bounced off a one-week low, around the $3,309 region touched on Thursday, after Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller backed the case for a rate cut in July. In fact, Waller said that he continues to believe the US central bank should cut interest rates at the end of this month amid mounting risks to the economy. Waller further emphasized that tariffs will not lead to a sustained increase in inflation and only cause a “temporary surge” in prices.

Traders, however, seem convinced that the Fed will wait at least until the September policy meeting before pulling the trigger and are pricing in the possibility of a 50 basis points rate cut by the end of this year. The expectations were further reaffirmed by Thursday’s upbeat US macro data and a slew of influential FOMC members. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) close to its highest level since June 23 and keeps the XAU/USD bulls on the defensive through the Asian session on Friday.

The US Commerce Department reported that Retail Sales rose 0.6% in June, defying market expectations. This marks a significant improvement after a 0.9% fall in May, providing a glimmer of optimism for an economy that has been struggling. Moreover, US Initial Jobless Claims dropped for the fifth straight week, to 221K during the week ending July 12, or the lowest level in three months, suggesting a still resilient US labor market and validating reduced Fed rate cut bets.

Meanwhile, Fed governor Adriana Kugler said that the still-restrictive policy stance is important to keep longer-run inflation expectations anchored, and it will be appropriate to hold the policy rate at the current level for some time. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain and rate cuts might be difficult in the short run. This, along with the upbeat market mood, continues to undermine demand for the safe-haven Gold price.

Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring housing market data, followed by the Preliminary Michigan US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations. The data might influence the USD, which, along with the risk sentiment, should provide some impetus to the Gold price. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register modest losses for the first time in three weeks, though the downside seems limited amid persistent trade uncertainties.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, nothing seems to have changed much for the commodity, and the recent range-bound price action witnessed since the beginning of this month warrants caution before placing aggressive directional bets. Hence, any further slide might continue to attract dip-buyers ahead of the $3,300 round figure. A convincing break below the said handle, however, could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the July swing low, around the $3,248-3,247 zone.

On the flip side, the $3,352 area could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $3,365-3,366 region, or the top boundary of the short-term trading range. A sustained strength beyond would be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and trigger a short-covering rally. The subsequent move up should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 mark and extend the momentum towards the next relevant hurdle near the $3,434-3,435 area.

• Gold retraces Wednesday’s gains and approaches weekly lows at $3,320.
• A stronger US Dollar amid investors’ concerns about the global trade outlook is weighing on Gold.
• XAU/USD needs to break the $3,310-$3,320 to confirm a trend shift.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower on Thursday, weighed by a stronger US Dollar, with risk appetite subdued amid ongoing uncertainty about global trade and rumours about the resignation of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The precious metal retreats from Monday’s highs at $3,375, but price action remains contained within previous ranges. Later today, the release of the US June Retail Sales data and weekly Jobless Claims might give further clues about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on consumption and employment, and give more guidance for the pair.

Technical analysis: The $3,310-$3,320 is an important support area

The XAU/USD technical picture remains messy. The daily chart shows a lack of clear bias, with the RSI wavering back and forth around the 50 level, and price action halfway through the last few months’ trading range.

A look at the 4-hour chart, however, reveals increasing downside pressure, although the pair remains above the support area at $3,310-$3,320, which contains the neckline of a double top at $3,375 and the bottom of the ascending wedge. A confirmation below here would increase pressure towards the July 9 low at $3,285 ahead of the June 29 low, at $3,245

On the flip side, a rebound from current levels would find resistance at the mentioned $3,375 July 14, 16 highs, and the wedge top, at 3,380, ahead of the June 18 and 23 highs, at the $3,400 area.

Bull Pennant Prepares the Next Move

Concurrently, gold has formed a bull pennant trend continuation pattern, and it is moving closer to a breakout given the narrowing distance to the apex of the pennant triangle. However, the next bull signal will be on rally above the three-week high from this week at $3,377, and a four-week breakout will trigger above $3,396.

Since the bull pennant is a trend continuation pattern it shows the potential for an upside breakout of the pattern and eventual continuation of the long-term bull trend. Resistance of the pattern is reflected by the top declining trendline and the most recent swing high at $3,451 (B).

Bullish Weekly Higher Highs and Lows

The bullish weekly pattern shows underlying strength in gold, which is supported by the daily bull pennant trend pattern. As expected, volatility contracted during the formation of the pennant consolidation, and more so the past couple of weeks. The only concern is that the bull pennant is almost too perfect and therefore obvious. Sometimes when the chart pattern is very clear it has the risk of doing something to fool market participants before the real move is established. A failure of the bull pattern is likely if gold falls below a recent interim higher swing low at $3,283.

Demand Builds as Consolidation Unfolds

Nevertheless, periods of low volatility can be followed by times of high volatility, or trending. If a breakout above the $3,451 swing high is sustained, the record high in gold will likely be exceeded. Gold would then be heading towards the completion of an ABCD pattern at 3,579, followed by a Fibonacci extension target at $3,603. The higher target would then be $3,668, which is the 127.2% projected ABCD target, combined with an initial target for a larger rising ABCD pattern (not shown) that starts from the April swing low.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Deeper Pullback?

Heading into next week, if today’s low is broken then the 20-Day line may fail as well on the way to a test of support around the longer term and more significant 200-Day MA, now at $3.45. Notice that the 20-Day MA (purple) is declining towards the 200-Day line. So, the potential drop below the 20-Day MA, if it does occur, is lessened the closer the two lines become.

Trendline Shows Resistance

When considering the rising dashed trendline that was previously the lower line of a rising trend channel, the line has indicated an area of resistance for the past four days. The line previously represented dynamic support and now resistance around the line has been confirmed. Despite several attempts to break above the line, there has not been a daily close above it. Since it is acting as resistance following a seven-day advance, a period of consolidation or a deeper pullback could follow.

Weekly Breakout Confirms Above $3.47

A weekly bull breakout triggered this week on a rally above last week’s high of $3.47. Therefore, the week is set to end with a higher weekly high and higher weekly low. The breakout will be confirmed on a weekly basis with a closing price today above last week’s high. Once the weekly breakout confirms, natural gas should see at least one higher weekly high and low as a continuation, if not more. It is also interesting to note that this week’s low was within the top third of last week’s price. That by itself is a sign of strength. But confirmation of that weekly breakout will be key the weekly closing price could be below the midpoint of the week’s range. That would be a bearish indication.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm near $38.00 after hitting a 14-year high earlier this week.
• The metal remains supported by an ascending channel on daily and weekly charts.
• RSI and ADX on the daily chart are turning higher, signaling a possible return in bullish momentum.

Silver (XAG/USD) is treading water on Friday, with spot prices hovering near $38.25 after marking a fresh 14-year high of $39.13 earlier this week. The metal continues to draw support from a firmly bullish structure, trading within a well-defined ascending channel on both the daily and weekly charts. While momentum has cooled slightly near multi-year highs, the broader technical outlook remains positive, with prices still comfortably positioned above key short-term moving averages.

The 21-day EMA at $37.05 continues to provide dynamic support, while the 50-day EMA near $35.82 offers a solid cushion for any deeper pullbacks.

Although price is consolidating just below the $38.50-$39.00 resistance zone, momentum indicators are beginning to turn higher again. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) eased slightly after nearing overbought territory earlier in the week when Silver hit its 14-year high. However, it has started to slope upward again, currently hovering around 66, pointing to a potential revival in buying interest.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) on the daily chart is also beginning to pick up, suggesting that trend strength may be strengthening after a brief slowdown. These developments indicate that the recent consolidation may be a healthy pause within the broader uptrend, rather than a signal of exhaustion.

Immediate support is seen around $37.00 round number, aligning with the 21-day EMA and marking a key line in the sand for bulls. A break below this level could trigger a deeper pullback, exposing the next support at $35.50, followed by a stronger demand zone near $34.50. On the upside, a sustained move above $39.13 would likely attract fresh buying interest, opening the door for a push toward the psychological $40.00 level and potentially higher.