Back Below Trendline

The likely daily close below the uptrend line is bearish, and more so since it follows a decline after finding resistance around a key short-term price zone. Wednesday’s high of $3.83 found resistance a little below the 50-Day MA, which had previously denoted as trend support. That is potentially bearish by itself as the progression of a bear trend typically rises to test prior support as resistance before it continues lower.

Also, notice that resistance was seen both yesterday and today around the middle line within the falling channel (red). There are also two prior interim price swing lows at $3.73 and $3.74, that now mark potential resistance. Finally, potential resistance around the 20-Week MA is at $3.71.

Bearish Continuation Remains a Risk

In other words, since a close below the trendline is bearish, and resistance was seen over several days in an area of confluence, there remains the potential for a bearish continuation of the corrective decline that followed the recent peak of $4.90. Moreover, a declining channel remains in place and natural gas continues to trade below both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs.

Therefore, although a rise above today’s would be a sign of strength given that the uptrend line and middle channel line would have been reclaimed, natural gas would be heading into prior consolidation and potential resistance around the 50-Day MA, now at $3.88, and the 20-Day MA, at $3.92 currently. Moreover, the relative strength index (RSI) remains in a downtrend and may establish a lower swing high.

What Happens Next More Helpful

One or a few days more of price action should begin to clarify the developing patterns. A 78.6% retracement was completed yesterday on the way to support at $3.34. Since a sharp rally followed, it showed buyers back in charge. Therefore, new bullish signs, starting with a rally above today’s high, should be seen as follow-through to renewed strength. If not, indicated by a drop below $3.46 and $3.34, then further downside becomes likely.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Escalating tensions between the United States and China put markets in risk-off mode.
• Wall Street resumed its bearish route, with the three major indexes down over 4% each.
• XAU/USD holds on to solid gains around $3,160 after reaching fresh record highs.

The bright metal soared on Thursday, hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,175.00 a troy ounce during American trading hours. The US Dollar (USD) plummeted on headlines indicating the trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump is far from over.

Trump announced massive retaliatory tariffs last week, only to pause most of them on Wednesday. Stock markets collapsed with the original news, recovering with the more optimistic pause. However, the good mood was short-lived. The White House confirmed on Thursday that levies on China account for 145%, the original 20% plus an additional 125%, which followed Beijing’s announcement of retaliatory 84% levies.

Tensions between the two countries revived concerns about a potential United States (US) recession around the corner. Even further, the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) released earlier in the day showed inflationary pressures eased by more than anticipated, which will help the Federal Reserve (Fed) extend its wait-and-see stance on monetary policy. With easing inflation and fears of an economic setback, it’s not crazy to think the Fed could even hike interest rates in the future.

Wall Street plummeted with the news, falling alongside the USD. At the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down roughly 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 shed over 5% each.

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The XAU/USD pair daily chart shows that additional gains are likely, given the strong upward momentum. Technical indicators head north almost vertically while still far from overbought levels. At the same time, the bright metal extended its advance beyond a now bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,052. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs also aim north, but far below the shorter one.”

Bednarik foresees XAU/USD reaching the $3,200 region in the upcoming sessions.

Two Strong Up Days

Today is the second sequential strong up day for gold as represented with the wide range green candles. Might a similar third day of gains be possible or will potential resistance lead to a pullback before gold attempts to go higher? Since three strong moves following a bearish pullback would provide a three white soldiers candlestick pattern, the possibility of a third strong up day needs to be considered. But, of course, a decisive breakout above today’s high would need to occur to signal that possibility. Otherwise, today’s high, which reached a potential significant resistance area, may lead to a pullback into Thursday’s trading range.

Higher Target Starting at $3,199

The next higher target above the prior record high was $3,170 and it slightly exceeded today. That price target is noted given how close it is to the top rising trend channel (blue) covering the advance from the December lows. A more significant potential target is up around $3,199 to $3,205. Since the market seems to be recognizing that top channel line, it can be watched along with the higher target zone. Following the $3,205 target are higher targets of $3,232 and 3,250.

Second Chanel Breakout Attempt

In addition to signs of strength noted above, today’s advance triggered a second breakout attempt from a larger long-term rising parallel trend channel (purple). The first breakout last week failed but this second attempt may have greater success. If the breakout is sustained, then bullish continuation within the smaller trend channel parameters becomes more likely.

Potential Support on Pullback

Therefore, the top purple channel line is potential support and is currently around $3,126 but since the line is rising the price will change. There are also prior weekly highs at $3,087 and $3,058 where support could be seen. Since this week established a wide trading range, a bearish pullback could result in volatility being higher than normal pullbacks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Brent crude oil price declined in its recent intraday trading, attempting to gain positive momentum that may help the price breach the current resistance at $64.80. At the same time, it is working to relieve the clear overbought conditions indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), supported by the strong rally seen in yesterday’s session, announcing the start of a bullish corrective wave.

Created on April 10, 2025

• The light sweet crude oil market has initially gotten hammered, but as you can see, we have seen the market turn right back around and scream to the upside.
• This makes a certain amount of sense considering that Donald Trump has removed tariffs for a bulk of the countries with the exception of China and the 10 % base tariffs that he was talking about throwing on everybody anyways.
• That being said, a 10 % tariff isn’t as massive of a problem for the world.

There’s quite a few countries out there that have been tariffing the United States 20, 30, 40 % for decades. So really it does more or less kind of just somewhat even the playing field. It’s not aggressive. It’s something that producers of various goods around the world can absorb.

On a Move Above $60

That being said, it’s worth noting that we are above the $60 level, but we are giving back some of the gains. And I think the process here is going to be extraordinarily noisy. The $65 level above is a massive barrier. If we could break that, it would be a huge win for the bulls. But right now, I don’t think we’re anywhere near that. I think we’re probably closer to a situation where we’re trying to form some type of basing pattern that is higher than we hit overnight. But we also have to worry about China and their reaction to the now 125 % tariffs on their goods, because during the day Amazon, and I’m starting to hear a little bit of chatter from Walmart as well, are canceling orders from China. This is a big deal. This means things just got a little uglier. Chinese banks have been ordered not to buy US dollars. Good luck with that. There’s no way to pay international debts without them. So, things are going to get very interesting very quick.

With that being said, there is a certain amount of concern about the overall global demand. If China slips into a recession and the US slips into a recession, everybody feels it. So, I think this is still a market that you would want to at least think about being bearish on, but you might want to get out of the way of trying to short it. A range between $60 and $65 does make a certain amount of sense, but you need stability before you start putting money to work.

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• Escalating tensions between the United States and China put markets in risk-off mode.
• Wall Street resumed its bearish route with the three major indexes down over 4% each.
• XAU/USD holds on to solid gains around $3,160 after reaching fresh record highs.

The bright metal soared on Thursday, hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,175.00 a troy ounce during American trading hours. The US Dollar (USD) plummeted on headlines indicating the trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump is far from over.

Trump announced massive retaliatory tariffs last week, only to pause most of them on Wednesday. Stock markets collapsed with the original news, recovering with the more optimistic pause. However, the good mood was short-lived. The White House confirmed on Thursday that levies on China account for 145%, the original 20% plus an additional 125%, which followed Beijing’s announcement of retaliatory 84% levies.

Tensions between the two countries revived concerns about a potential United States (US) recession around the corner. Even further, the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) released earlier in the day showed inflationary pressures eased by more than anticipated, which will help the Federal Reserve (Fed) extend its wait-and-see stance on monetary policy. With easing inflation and fears of an economic setback, it’s not crazy to think the Fed could even hike interest rates in the future.

Wall Street plummeted with the news, falling alongside the USD. At the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down roughly 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 shed over 5% each.

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The XAU/USD pair daily chart shows that additional gains are likely, given the strong upward momentum. Technical indicators head north almost vertically, while still far from overbought levels. At the same time, the bright metal extended its advance beyond a now bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,052. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs also aim north, but far below the shorter one.”

Bednarik foresees XAU/USD reaching the $3,200 region in the upcoming sessions.

Brent crude oil price declined in its recent intraday trading, attempting to gain positive momentum that may help the price breach the current resistance at $64.80. At the same time, it is working to relieve the clear overbought conditions indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), supported by the strong rally seen in yesterday’s session, announcing the start of a bullish corrective wave.

So, with all of that being said, I think you have a situation here where you very well could see natural gas continue to be noisy, but I think ultimately the real question is, can we break down below the $3.50 level? Because if we do, then I think you have a real shot at natural gas breaking down for the season, which is what I would expect given enough time, at least in normal years, that’s what you typically see.

So, with all of that being said, I find this a market that I’m looking for signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies to start shorting. I think the $4 level will now start to act as a bit of a ceiling. And if we can break above the $4.20 level, then we could go to the $4.50 level, which I think is even more resistive. So, I’m looking for a short-term pop, signs of exhaustion, and then I short, that’s how I’ve been playing this for a couple of weeks now.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price surged as escalating US-China trade tensions reignited safe-haven demand.
• President Trump announced an immediate tariff hike on Chinese imports to 125% shortly after China raised duties.
• China’s Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% YoY in March, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase and extending February’s 0.7% drop.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to climb for the second straight day, trading near $31.10 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session. The grey metal surged nearly 4% in the previous session, fueled by renewed safe-haven demand following escalating US-China trade tensions.

US President Donald Trump announced an immediate hike in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, shortly after China raised reciprocal duties on US goods to 84%. This tit-for-tat escalation overshadowed a broader trade de-escalation effort, where the US had temporarily lowered tariffs to 10% for 90 days to facilitate negotiations with other countries.

Meanwhile, markets are digesting the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which suggested near-unanimous concern among policymakers over the dual threat of rising inflation and slowing growth—highlighting potential “difficult tradeoffs” for the Fed.

The non-yielding Silver metal may attract fresh buying interest following the release of China’sthat Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which reinforces dovish expectations for the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) policy outlook. China’s CPI fell 0.1% year-over-year in March, missing forecasts of a 0.1% rise and following a 0.7% drop in February. On a monthly basis, CPI declined 0.4%, steeper than both February’s 0.2% decrease and market expectations. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) slipped 2.5% year-over-year, exceeding the previous 2.2% drop and the projected 2.3% decline, signaling continued deflationary pressures in the economy.

Despite intensifying trade frictions, Fed officials emphasized a data-dependent approach to policy. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a rate cut at next month’s meeting. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming US CPI and PPI data on Friday for further clarity on the Fed’s rate path.

• Gold price consolidates the previous rebound after testing $3,100 early Thursday.  
• Deepening US-China trade war and renewed US Dollar downtick support Gold price.
• Gold price broke the range to the upside as the daily RSI reclaimed the 50 level.
• Gold buyers look forward to the US CPI data for the next trading impetus.

Gold price is biding time near $3,100 in Asian trading on Thursday, gathering strength for the next push higher. The further upside in the Gold price depends on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Gold price braces for US CPI amid US-China trade woes

Despite the latest pause in the Gold price turnaround, the US-China trade war escalation will likely keep the demand for safe havens such as Gold intact. The tit-for-tat game for the US and China is just getting bigger, with Beijing preparing to deepen the China-EU trade, indirectly taking aim at American companies, per the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

This report came after US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday a 90-day ‘pause’ on reciprocal tariffs of 10% for all countries except for China. Trump raised the tariff rate for China to 125%, effective immediately.

Earlier on Wednesday, Beijing hit back at Trump’s 104% tariffs with its own additional tariffs of 84%, up from the previous 34%, on all American goods. Amidst tariff headlines still driving markets, investors continue to remain unnerved and prefer to hold on to the traditional store of value, Gold, heading toward the US CPI inflation showdown.

Increased expectations that the Trump-inflicted global trade war would cause higher inflation and tip the economy into recession keep the odds for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) elevated. Dovish Fed bets remain supportive of the Gold price upside.

Therefore, it remains to be seen if the US March CPI report signals rising inflationary pressures, calling for the Fed’s prudence on future rate cuts. The non-interest-bearing Gold price will likely resume its corrective downside in such a scenario. However, any reaction to the US CPI data could be short-lived as tariff headlines will continue to play a pivotal role.

The US CPI is expected to rise 2.6% annually in March after increasing 2.8% in February.  The core CPI inflation is seen a tad lower at 3% in the same period versus February’s 3.1%. On a monthly basis, the CPI and core CPI are forecast to rise 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, in March.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The technical setup on the daily time frame favors Gold buyers, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding firm above the midline, currently near 60.

On Wednesday, Gold price settled above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $3,036, breaking out of this week’s range and opening the door for more upside.

Softer-than-expected US CPI readings would ramp up odds for a May Fed rate cut, bolstering the Gold price recovery to test the $3,150 psychological barrier.

The record high of $3,168 will be next on buyers’ radars, above which the $3,200 round level will be challenged.

If the US inflation data comes in hotter-than-expected, it would imply another pause by the Fed next month, smashing the yieldless Gold.

Gold price could find immediate respite at the 21-day SMA resistance-turned-support, now at $3,048.

Additional declines could threaten the $3,000 mark, below which a test of the 50-day SMA at $2,960 will be inevitable.