Platinum price continued forming the bullish correctional trading, surpassing the obstacle at $920.00, to begin recording some of the gains by reaching $930.00, getting advantage from the continuation of the positive momentum that come from stochastic, which approaches from 50 level.
Reminding you that the bullish suggestion on the current trading will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support at $895.00, to expect reaching 50%Fibonacci correction level at $950.00, and surpassing it will lead the price to test the resistance at $961.00
The expected trading range for today is between $920.00 and $950.00
The light sweet crude oil market has initially gotten hammered, but as you can see, we have seen the market turn right back around and scream to the upside.
This makes a certain amount of sense considering that Donald Trump has removed tariffs for a bulk of the countries with the exception of China and the 10 % base tariffs that he was talking about throwing on everybody anyways.
That being said, a 10 % tariff isn’t as massive of a problem for the world.
There’s quite a few countries out there that have been tariffing the United States 20, 30, 40 % for decades. So really it does more or less kind of just somewhat even the playing field. It’s not aggressive. It’s something that producers of various goods around the world can absorb.
On a Move Above $60
That being said, it’s worth noting that we are above the $60 level, but we are giving back some of the gains. And I think the process here is going to be extraordinarily noisy. The $65 level above is a massive barrier. If we could break that, it would be a huge win for the bulls. But right now, I don’t think we’re anywhere near that. I think we’re probably closer to a situation where we’re trying to form some type of basing pattern that is higher than we hit overnight. But we also have to worry about China and their reaction to the now 125 % tariffs on their goods, because during the day Amazon, and I’m starting to hear a little bit of chatter from Walmart as well, are canceling orders from China. This is a big deal. This means things just got a little uglier. Chinese banks have been ordered not to buy US dollars. Good luck with that. There’s no way to pay international debts without them. So, things are going to get very interesting very quick.
With that being said, there is a certain amount of concern about the overall global demand. If China slips into a recession and the US slips into a recession, everybody feels it. So, I think this is still a market that you would want to at least think about being bearish on, but you might want to get out of the way of trying to short it. A range between $60 and $65 does make a certain amount of sense, but you need stability before you start putting money to work.
Goldman Sachs has slashed its oil prices forecasts again and now expects Brent Crude to average below $60 per barrel next year, at $58, amid recession risks, slowing demand, and more supply from the OPEC+ producers.
The investment bank had previously forecasted oil demand growth at 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year but now it sees the growth at half this figure, at 300,000 bpd.
Higher risks of recessions and higher-than-expected OPEC+ production prompted Goldman Sachs to slash again its oil price forecasts for 2026, days after it had already cut its price outlook in the wake of the U.S. tariffs announcement last week.
Goldman Sachs’s analysts issued a new note dated April 6, in which they slashed their 2026 oil price forecasts by $4 per barrel to $58 for Brent Crude prices and to $55 for the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude.
On Friday, Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast for 2025 by 5.5 per cent for Brent crude and by 4.3 per cent for West Texas Intermediate, citing the OPEC+ decision to boost production in May and the tariff barrage that President Trump unleashed. The bank also revised down its 2026 Brent crude forecast by 9 per cent to $62 per barrel and its 2026 WTI forecast by 6.3 per cent to $59 per barrel.
Two days later, Goldman Sachs slashed the forecasts again and now expects Brent Crude to average below $60 per barrel next year, at $58, amid recession risks, slowing demand, and more supply from the OPEC+ producers.
The investment bank had previously forecasted oil demand growth at 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. Now it sees the growth at half this figure, at 300,000 bpd.
There is a chance of oil prices rising from current levels if the U.S. backs down from the tariffs, according to the bank.
“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses, Goldman’s analysts wrote in the April 6 note carried by Reuters.
Goldman Sachs last week raised recession odds to 45 per cent over the next 12 months, up from a 35 per cent chance of a recession estimated previously. Goldman’s analysts cited “a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”
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The FOMC Minutes could have a limited impact on markets given recent tariffs’ turmoil.
The trade war escalation brought back risk-off trading, underpinning gold.
XAU/USD approaches the $3,100 mark and could extend gains to fresh record highs.
Spot Gold resumed its bullish run after a brief consolidating phase, trading a handful of bucks below the $3,100 mark in the American session, up roughly $100 on the day amid returning risk-aversion. The escalation of the trade war, particularly between the United States (US) and China. Following US President Trump’s decision to double levies on the Asian giant to a whopping 104%, Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs of 84%.
Back-and-forth announcements finally took their toll on financial markets, and fears returned. Investors are concerned about a potential US recession alongside economic setbacks among major economies. Market participants are also worried about upward inflationary pressures coming with widespread import taxes, and how those could affect central banks’ upcoming monetary policy decisions.
Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee is about to release the Minutes from the March meeting. Given the latest tariffs’ developments, the document could be considered old news and have a limited impact on the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, the document may shed additional light on policymakers’ thinking.
Back in March, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed Chair Jerome Powell and co are in no rush to move interest rates amid increased fiscal and political uncertainty. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to trim rates by modest 50 basis points (bps) this year, with increased doubts about such moves given mounting trading tensions.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is poised to retest record highs in the $3,160 region. The daily chart for the pair shows technical indicators advancing within positive levels, with sharp bullish slopes. At the same time, the pair recovered above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $3,044. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading firmly higher, far below the shorter one, in line with the dominant bullish trend.
The near-term picture also favors another leg higher, although given the intraday advance, Gold may consolidate or even correct lower before resuming gains. Still, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD stands above all its moving averages, which, anyway, lack directional strength. At the same time, technical indicators have turned flat near their intraday highs, and well above their midlines, suggesting absent selling interest.
Support levels: 3,078.30 3,062.90 3,051.10
Resistance levels: 3,105.00 3,122.85 3,136.50
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The day’s high of $3.83 attempted to test the 50-Day MA as resistance following a daily close below line last Friday. Although the recovery above the trendline is positive, the 50-Day line needs to be reclaimed if natural gas is going to have a chance to further strengthen. There is also the 20-Day MA that is a little higher at $3.94. Since the 20-Day line is falling there is the potential for it to drop below the 50-Day line. That would be a bearish sign if it is sustained.
Quick Recover Above Trendline
Since natural gas recovered the trendline in less than two days, and it followed a retracement to a key 78.6% retracement level, an eventual advance to test resistance around the downtrend line seems likely, at a minimum. Notice that support was found yesterday at the lower channel line, and it was again tested today with a brief undercut of the lower channel.
Moreover, although the middle line (dashed) of the channel was exceeded today, natural gas may close at or slightly below that line. If it does so, it will be the second day that the middle line was recognized. Notice that Tuesday’s low found support at the lower end of the channel.
Daily Close Above 20-Day Moving Average Needed for Bulls
Until there is a daily close above the 20-Day MA and the top falling trendline, there remains the possibility that bearish correction has not completed, and further tests of lows could occur. Another drop below the trendline would indicate that it was not successfully tested as support, reflecting continued underlying downward pressure.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Coffee price began gathering its gains by activating the bearish correctional track after breaking 370.65, to notice its decline towards 338.20, to settle below the moving average 55.
Stochastic reach to the oversold level will increase the negative pressures, which makes us prefer targeting extra negative stations that might begin at 332.00 and 326.30 before any attempt to regain the bullish track.
The expected trading range for today is between 332.00 and 355.10
Trend forecast: Bearish
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The price of Ethereum (ETHUSD) has risen during its recent intraday trading, following the stability of the support level at $1,404, which has provided some positive momentum. This momentum aims to recover part of the previous losses and get rid of its clear oversold conditions indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), especially that positive signals begin to emerge, accompanied with the domination of the main bearish trend.
Crude oil prices: Following Donald Trump’s tariffs uncertainty and Saudi Arabia’s rate cuts, crude oil prices dropped to more than four years low on Wednesday. WTI crude oil price oscillates around the $57.70 mark, logging an intraday loss of nearly 3.20% during early morning deals in the Asian stock market. Brent futures lost $2.13, or 3.39%, to $60.69 a barrel as of 0108 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $2.36, or 3.96%, to $57.22. Brent reached its lowest point in March 2021, and WTI reached its lowest in February 2021. Crude oil futures contract for April expiry on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) crashed 1.78% or ₹94 per barrel on Tuesday and closed at ₹5,199 per barrel.
Both benchmarks have tumbled over the five consecutive sessions since US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on most imports, sparking concerns that a global trade war would dent economic growth and hit fuel demand. The US will impose a 104% tariff on China from 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) on Wednesday, a White House official said in a Tuesday briefing. The tariffs will increase by 50% after Beijing failed to lift its retaliatory tariffs on US goods by a noon deadline on Tuesday set by Trump.
According to commodity market experts, crude oil prices have crashed due to demand concerns fuelled by an escalating tariff war between the US and China and rate cuts announced by Saudi Arabia. They said that crude oil prices might continue to trade red and touch the $52 per barrel mark, whereas, in the domestic market, crude oil prices may test the ₹5,025 per barrel mark on MCX.
Crude oil prices drop on recession fear
Speaking on the reasons that are dragging crude oil prices across bourses, Anuj Gupta, Head — Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, said, “Oil prices fell sharply to an over four-year low in Asian trade on Wednesday as signs of a rapidly escalating US-China trade war sparked heightened concerns over a recession and weaker demand.” He said Saudi Arabia’s announcement to increase output and decrease oil prices is also a significant reason for nosediving crude oil prices.
“China’s aggressive retaliation diminishes the chances of a quick deal between the world’s two biggest economies, triggering mounting fears of global economic recession,” said Ye Lin, vice president of oil commodity markets at Rystad Energy.
“China’s 50,000 bpd to 100,000 bpd of oil demand growth is at risk if the trade war continues for longer. However, a stronger stimulus to boost domestic consumption could mitigate the losses,” she said.
Exacerbating oil’s decline was OPEC’s decision last week, which groups together the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, to hike output in May by 411,000 barrels per day. Analysts say this move is likely to push the market into surplus.
Goldman Sachs now forecasts that Brent and WTI could edge down to $62 and $58 per barrel by December 2025 and to $55 and $51 per barrel by December 2026.
Crude oil price forecast
Anuj Gupta of HDFC Securities said, “Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure. They may touch $52 per barrel in the international market, whereas they may test the ₹5,025 per barrel mark on the MCX. One should look at short positions on every rise as oil prices face hurdles at $62 per barrel in the international market and ₹5,380 per barrel on the MCX.”
(With inputs from Reuters)
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Gold price rebounds from near the $2,970 region again on Wednesday.
Risk-off flows dominate as traders brace 104% US tariffs on Chinese imports, Fed Minutes.
Gold price remains stuck between two key daily SMAs; RSI recovers to prod the 50 level.
Gold price is looking to finally end its corrective downside early Wednesday, finding demand once again near the $2,970 region. A sustained upside in Gold price hinges on the market reaction to the reciprocal tariffs and the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) March policy meeting.
Gold price focuses tariff updates for fresh directives
Gold price is capitalizing on deteriorating investors’ confidence as US President Donald Trump’s global reciprocal tariffs come into effect. Markets are spooked mainly due to the whopping 104% tariffs on Chinese goods, which took effect, heightening US-China trade tensions.
The White House confirmed late Tuesday that 104% duties on imports from China would take effect after midnight on Wednesday.
Amidst looming tariff uncertainty and the increased odds of a US recession, the US Dollar (USD) sticks to its bearish momentum, allowing Gold price to find its feet. However, if the Fed Minutes indicate prudence due to risks of higher inflation, the Greenback could see a temporary relief rally. USD sellers will likely jump in in no time due to the reciprocal tariffs coming into effect.
All in all, Gold price is likely to emerge as a clear winner even if the Fed Minutes are perceived as cautious, in the wake of the US-China trade war escalation. Late Tuesday, President Trump accused China of manipulating the currency to protect against tariffs, but he remained hopeful that China would make a deal at some point.
Meanwhile, the ongoing recovery in the US Treasury bond yields could threaten the upswing in the non-yielding Gold price. But the impact could be limited amid increased dovish bets surrounding the Fed interest rate cuts.
The jump in the US Treasury bond yields could be linked to investors selling the safe-haven asset to cover losses elsewhere. Therefore, the increased bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts could soon check the yield surge.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold buyers are fighting back control as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) pierces the 50 level from below.
Gold price needs acceptance above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,036 on a daily closing basis for resuming the record rally.
Buyers will then look to the weekly high of $3,056, above which $3,100 will be tested.
On the flip side, a sustained break below the 50-day SMA at $2,952 will negate the near-term bullish bias, opening the door toward the $2,900 round figure.
The next relevant support levels are seen at the March 10 and 11 lows, at $2,880, and the 100-day SMA, at $2,809.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
The next lower target is the 78.6% retracement at $3.40. However, there is a better-defined potential support zone from $3.08 to $2.98, consisting of the initial 100% target for a falling ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing beginning in August 2024. Also, within that price zone is the next lower trend indicator, the 200-Day MA, now at $3.04, and a prior swing high and symmetrical triangle breakout level of $3.02.
Monthly Bearish Signal
The monthly chart (not shown) is supportive of further downside as a one-month bearish reversal triggered this month. Support from March is at $3.16 and there could be some signs of support around the price level. Moreover, another bearish monthly signal would be generated on a drop below March. A bearish monthly signal especially increases the chance that the lower potential support level noted above may be reached before the current bearish correction is complete.
Bearish Correction Could Fall Farther Than Expected
If natural gas ends up falling below $2.98 and staying below it, sellers may remain in charge down to the $2.77 price zone or lower. That is the 127.2% extended target for the falling ABCD pattern. A daily close below $2.98 would signal a bearish reversal of the advance that began from the August 2024 interim swing low.
The late-January higher swing low at $2.99 is part of the price structure of that trend therefore a drop below that price level would violate the integrity of the uptrend. Additionally, there appears to be potential support around a long-term uptrend line (purple) originating from the April 2024 swing low. It identifies the next lower trend support area below the 200-Day MA. In general, once one trendline is broken, the next lower line becomes a potential target.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
