Potential Higher Target

An initial target from the bull wedge is the beginning of the wedge at $4.26. That target was essentially satisfied today. Nonetheless, that doesn’t mean the advance is over, but maybe natural gas takes a rest first via a pullback or consolidation before attempting higher prices. Also, when adding the height in price to the breakout level, an alternative potential target of $4.40 is established. As with all targets they are estimates that may or may not be reached.

Drop Below $4.06 Points to a Likely Pullback

A decline below Monday’s low of $4.055 is a sign of further short-term weakening that could lead to a move lower to test prior resistance areas as support. Two initial price areas to watch for signs of support include prior support from the mid-March interim swing low at $3.96, and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.87. It is interesting to note that the breakout of the top line of the wedge occurred at a similar price area.

Following the reclaim of the 50-Day MA on February 13, the 50-Day line successfully tested as support in early-March and a higher swing low was established. Although the recent decline failed to find support at the 50-Day MA, the subsequent quick bullish recovery can be viewed as a successful test of support at the 50-Day line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver prints a ‘high wave candle,’ signaling market indecision after 5% rally over four sessions.
• A close above $34 keeps bullish momentum intact; targets lie at $34.58 YTD high and $35.40 October 2012 peak.
• Break below $34 may trigger correction toward $33.51 support, with $33.00 as next bearish target.

Silver price falls slightly after hitting a daily high of $34.46, trading at $34.02 amid a strong US Dollar and falling US Treasury yields.

Market mood improved slightly, but traders are awaiting April 2, US Liberation Day, on which US President Donald Trump is expected to unveil tariffs. Speculation suggests that the US will apply 20% universal tariffs.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver remains upward biased, despite retreating somewhat as a ‘high wave candle’ forms. After climbing over 5% in the last four days, indecision keeps buyers and sellers from opening fresh aggressive bets, as they could be awaiting the closing price.

If XAG/USD closes above $34, this could be bullish and pave the way for further upside. The first resistance will be the year-to-date (YTD) high of $34.58. On further strength, the next ceiling level would be $35.00, followed by the October 2012 peak at $35.40.

Conversely, if XAG/USD falls below $34.00, the first support will be the March 31 low of $33.51, followed by the $33.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Gold price resumed its advance in latest intraday trading after trying to collect some recent profits and gather positive momentum to regain its footing, after reaching our price target of $3120, amid the complete dominance of the upward trend, while the price trades alongside the secondary short-term trend line.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,115.67

• US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil.
• The United States will release multiple employment-related figures this week.
• XAU/USD trades near fresh record highs, retracements likely to attract buyers.

Fears dominated financial markets at the weekly opening, resulting in XAU/USD reaching an all-time high of $3,128.14. A near-term pullback attracted buyers, and Gold retains most of its early gains in the mid-American session.

Demand for the bright metal is directly related to market fears. Concerns revolve around United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Market players are not only worried about the upcoming reciprocal tariffs announced for April 2, but also about fresh levies on Oil.

Trump offered an interview to NBC earlier in the day, and said he was “very angry” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, after the latter criticized the credibility of their Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump added that if he believes Russia is responsible for not reaching a ceasefire with Ukraine, he may impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil.

Secondary tariffs had already been announced on Venezuela, with Trump saying that he would place additional levies on countries that bought oil and gas from the South American country. Speculative interest rushed away from high-yielding stocks, with global indexes falling under strong selling pressure amid concerns that tariffs will have a negative impact on worldwide economic growth.

Data-wise, the focus this week will be on US employment-related data. The country will release the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday and the ADP Employment Change survey on Wednesday. Finally on Friday, the country will release the March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it’s up for a third consecutive session, and despite overbought readings, there are no technical signs of a directional change. The pair develops far above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) gaining upward traction and currently at around $2,991.20. In the meantime, technical indicators stand at extreme levels, partially losing their bullish strength, yet still heading north.

The 4-hour chart for the XAU/USD pair shows indicators retreating from their tops, but are still at extreme overbought readings. At the same time, all moving averages aim north, with the 20 SMA accelerating further north at around $3,065.90. Buyers are still taking their chances on dips, although a steeper corrective slide is not out of the picture, given the extreme overbought conditions in multiple time frames.

Support levels: 3,107.40 3,095.50 3,082.90

Resistance levels: 3,128.50 3,145.00 3,160.00

Indicator Confluence Marked Resistance

Notice on the chart that last week’s new near-term trend high of $33.59 found resistance at the confluence of several indicators. They include the completion of a 100% target for a rising ABCD pattern at $34.51, and two trendlines that mark the top of rising parallel trend channels. There is a larger uptrend that begins from the August 2022 lows and a shorter advance starting from the December lows.

It can be argued that one of the top channel lines may not be in the perfect location. But the fact that the two lines converged around the same price at the time that silver was approaching, and then resistance was seen, followed by a one-day bearish reversal today, shows why confluence can be so useful.

Behavior Around 20-Day Moving Average Should Provide Clues

Since the 20-Day MA was reclaimed on March 11 there has been only one dip to test is at as support. That happened on March 21, and it established a higher swing low. Since resistance has been seen from a high of $34.59, a successful test of support at or above the 20-Day MA, now at $33.35, seems possible. If price is rejected from the area around the 20-Day line, it would be bullish for the short-term uptrend that starts from the late-February higher swing low (C).

That swing low found support around the 50-Day MA. If this or a similar scenario unfolds then silver may continue to challenge highs and resistance around the top channel lines. Whether that could lead to a sustainable advance or not remains to be seen. It is important to add that silver ended last week at its highest weekly closing price since October 2012. This is consistent with the bullish long-term patterns in the price of silver.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Even as the Stochastic continues  to send out negative signals, as the price holds its ground above $5.00, it underpins the upward trend, however the price might engage in some sideways trading to gather enough momentum and rush towards $5.150, then target the major resistance at $5.340.

However, a breach of $5.00 would send the price towards more correctional negative trades towards $4.9200, then $4.8100.

Expected trading range today is between $5.000 and 

$5.1500.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

Platinum price kept trying to regain the upward trend with positive signals from major indicators, thus holding its ground above the 55 SMA, which recently represented an additional support at $964.00, with the price snagging some gains by wavering near $990.00.

The price  will likely form additional ascending waves and might try to pressure the $1000.00 barrier, with a breach sending the price towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $1017. 

Expected trading range today is between $975 and $1000.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

• Silver price trades sideways around $34.00 as investors await the release of a detailed reciprocal tariff plan by US President Trump on Wednesday.
• Trump tariffs will result in a downgrade of global economic growth, including the US.
• Fed Daly’s confidence has declined in her expectations of two interest rate cuts this year.

Silver price (XAG/USD) wobbles around $34.00 in Monday’s European session. The white metal trades flat as investors have sidelined to have a clear view on global economic outlook, with United States (US) President Donald Trump to unveil reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday.

Donald Trump is set to announce reciprocal levies on so-called “Liberation Day” after which tariffs be equivalent charged by other nations on the US for same products. The impact of reciprocal tariffs is expected to be significant on the global economic growth. The appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, increases amid heightening global economic tensions.

Investors expect Trump tariffs will also weaken the US economic growth, given that the impact of higher tariffs will be borne by US importers. This will also result in a resurgence in inflationary pressures.

Fears of US economic risks and accelerating price pressures in the near term have forced federal Reserve (Fed) officials to maintain a restrictive monetary policy guidance. On Friday, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly expressed that her confidence is easing in her expectations that there will be two interest rate cuts this year. Her confidence on two interest rate cuts this year shaken after the release of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace of 2.8% compared to estimates of 2.7% and the former release of 2.6%.

Historically, firm expectations for the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rate stance weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price advances toward the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.

The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.30 continues to provide support to the Silver price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds above 60.00, suggesting a resurgence in bullish momentum.

Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.

Silver daily chart

Natural gas has broken decisively above a months-long descending trendline, with prices pushing through both the 50 EMA ($3.974) and 200 EMA ($3.937). The breakout is supported by a bullish ABCD harmonic pattern completing near $3.755, marking a strong inflection point.

Price is now trading comfortably above $4.00, with momentum accelerating toward the next key resistance at $4.228, followed by $4.416. This move confirms the end of the recent consolidation phase and suggests a shift in sentiment.

A sustained hold above $4.00 strengthens the bullish case, particularly with both EMAs now trending upward. Should prices dip, immediate support rests at $3.938, then $3.755—the breakout level and harmonic support.

With volume increasing on the breakout and structure aligning, bulls appear to have regained control. Natural gas breaks out above trendline and key EMAs. Bullish above $4.00, targeting $4.228 and $4.416. Pullbacks may attract buyers near $3.938.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Even as the Stochastic continues  to send out negative signals, as the price holds its ground above $5.00, it underpins the upward trend, however the price might engage in some sideways trading to gather enough momentum and rush towards $5.150, then target the major resistance at $5.340.

However, a breach of $5.00 would send the price towards more correctional negative trades towards $4.9200, then $4.8100.

Expected trading range today is between $5.000 and 

$5.1500.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish