• Silver price gains momentum to near $34.35 in Monday’s early European session. 
• Fears of trade wars and geopolitical tensions boost the safe-haven demand, supporting the Silver price. 
• The renewed US Dollar demand might cap the upside for XAG/USD. 

The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers to around $34.35 during the early European session on Monday. Potential trade wars and ongoing geopolitical tensions boost the safe-haven flows, benefitting the white metal. 

Traders are worried ahead of a new round of reciprocal levies that the White House is due to announce on Wednesday. Trump said late Sunday that the administration is hurrying to determine the specifics of its new tariff agenda ahead of its self-imposed deadline of Wednesday, considering possibilities after promising to remake the American economy with a slew of new levies. Aggressive tariff policies could exert some selling pressure on the Greenback and lift the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. 

Additionally, strong industrial demand, especially from new-age industries like EVs and solar energy, creates tailwinds for the white metal. Gains are also expected in the consumer electronics market, as the development of artificial intelligence systems will continue to boost product offerings. 

The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March will be in the spotlight on Tuesday. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could underpin the Greenback and cap the upside for the Silver price. 

• Gold price captures $3,100 early Monday, fresh record high and counting.
• WSJ reports potential higher, broader Trump’s April 2 tariffs, downing the US Dollar, Treasury yields.
• A pullback could be in the offing for Gold price as the daily RSI stays heavily overbought.

Gold price continues to rally in Asian trading on Monday, marking another record high  well above the $3,100 mark. Gold buyers remain undeterred due to heightened fears of a potential global trade war and its economic repercussions.   

Gold price tops $3,100 for the first time on record

The buying interest in the Gold price remains unabated, with markets scurrying for safety in the traditional store of value amid speculations surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariffs plans on ‘Liberation Day’, April 2.

The latest Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report highlighted that US President Donald Trump could aim for higher and broader reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, driving riskier assets into a tailspin while bolstering the ultimate safe-haven Gold price.  

“Advisers have considered imposing global tariffs of up to 20% that would hit virtually all US trading partners,” the WSJ reported.

Markets are dreading the looming risks of a full-fledged global tariff war, which is likely to unfold after Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. This could intensify inflationary pressures, leading to stagflation.

Mounting concerns over a potential stagflation in the United States (US) are weighing heavily on the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields, allowing the non-yielding Gold price to clinch fresh record highs.

However, the further upside in the Gold price could be capped if traders opt to cash in on the record rally ahead of Wednesday’s tariffs announcements by Trump.

The US data-docket remains light at the start of the week, leaving the Gold price at the mercy of the broad market sentiment and Trump’s tariff expectations.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

A technical sell in the Gold price also cannot be ruled out as buyers have already achieved the ascending triangle target, measured at $3,080, last Friday.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending in the highly overbought region above 75, warranting caution for buyers.  

If a correction unfolds, the immediate support is seen at the intraday low of $3,077, below which the $3,050 psychological barrier will be tested.

If the selling momentum intensifies, the March 26 low of $3,012 could come to buyers’ rescue.  

Conversely, if buyers retain control, the next target on the topside is seen at the $3,150 threshold.

Fresh buying opportunities would emerge above that level, opening doors for a fresh uptrend toward the $3,200 round figure.

Gold price failed to maintain early gains and bounced lower, settling on a mild decline, after the current resistance of $3090 held its ground, with the price gathering positive momentum that could help it breach that resistance, while also venting off overbought saturation in the Stochastic, with negative signals emerging from it.

It comes amid the dominance of the main upward trend as the price trades alongside the secondary short-term trend line, with positive support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.

• Gold price climbs to near $3,090 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Escalating global trade tensions and economic uncertainties boost the safe-haven flows, supporting Gold price. 
• Traders brace for the US March ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which is due later on Tuesday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $3,090 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal maintains its uptrend near a record high amid fears of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs.

Trump last week announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks set to take effect on April 3. This measure comes on top of a flat 25% tariff on steel and aluminum and Trump’s impending reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday. The ongoing fears related to trade wars and global economic uncertainty boost the yellow metal, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday showed that the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.4% MoM in February, compared to 0.3% in January. This figure came in hotter than the expectation of 0.3%. On an annual basis, the core PCE jumped 2.8% in February versus 2.7% prior (revised from 2.6%). 

The report suggested sticky inflation in the US economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s aggressive trade policy raises concerns that the economy may fall into stagflation or even recession. This, in turn, undermines the Greenback and lifts the USD-denominated commodity price. 

Traders will keep an eye on the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March, which is due later on Tuesday. If the report shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could underpin the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the Gold price. 

• Silver slips after strong rally as traders reduce exposure ahead of key US macroeconomic releases next week.
• A close below $34.23 opens door to deeper pullback, with $33.51 and $33.00 as key downside targets.
• Bulls need to hold above $34.25 to retest YTD high at $34.58 and make a run toward $35.00.

Silver price hits a five-month high but retreats toward the $34 figure late on Friday, as traders brace for the weekend, eyeing a busy economic schedule in the United States (US). At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $34.03, down by over 1%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver hit $34.58 earlier, before retreating as traders seem to book profits, taking risks off the table. As the grey metal falls, it has cleared the first support seen at $34.23, March 18 peak. If sellers achieve a daily close below the latter, XAG/USD could extend its losses beneath $34.00.

In that outcome, the first support would be the March 26 daily low of $33.51. Once surpassed the next stop would be $33.00. On the other hand, if Silver remains above $34.25, bulls could be poised to claim the year-to-date (YTD) high of $34.58, ahead of testing $35.00

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Brent crude oil price kept rising in latest intraday trading, breaching the pivotal resistance of $73.60, while buoyed by trading above the 50-candle SMA, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, as the price moves alongside primary and secondary trend line, indicating the strength and dominance of this trend.

Sharp Upside Breakout

Also, the second leg down in the correction generated a bullish falling wedge pattern. That might help account for the sharp runup seen today. Notice that earlier in today’s trading session the trendline and 50-Day MA were first tested as support before buyers took back control, leading to the rally.

The next decision point looks to be around the 20-Day MA, now at $4.12. That initial price target may yet be hit before the end of the day since natural gas continues to trade near the highs of the day, at the time of this writing. Other initial upside targets include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a prior interim swing high at $4.26.

Improving Bullish Signs

Given the bullish reaction following the completion of a 61.8% retracement it is possible that the corrective decline is complete. Certainly, it might be. But further evidence of strength will be needed. A daily close above the 20-Day MA would be one sign of strengthening that could lead to higher prices. But the recent interim swing high at $4.26 makes up the price structure of the recent decline as it is a lower swing high. Reclaiming that high would provide another bullish reversal signal. But keep in mind that rallies will be heading up into a consolidation zone if recent highs are approached. This could lead to further consolidation.

Rallying Into Consolidation Zone

Finally, let’s consider the large rising trend starting from the 2024 low. It shows on the chart as a large parallel trend channel. Within the larger trend channel there are shorter trends defined by a trendline along support. Since the recent rising trendline was broken to the downside, there is the possibility that the next lower trend support line is eventually tested as it was not during the recent bearish correction. Keep that in mind if natural does eventually turn back down after reaching higher price levels.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Platinum price managed to surpass the barrier of $983.00 yesterday and reactivate the upward momentum, as the 55 SMA forms an additional support near $966.00, while the Stochastic sends out positive signals by exiting oversold levels. 

The price will likely head towards $1000.00, thus heading additional targets such as $1017 and $1026 respectively. 

Expected trading range today is between $975 and $1000.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

• Silver price jumps to near $34.60 as its safe-haven demand improves amid growing concerns over global trade.
• Investors expect that Trump’s tariffs will impact economic growth and prompt inflation across the globe.
• The US core PCE inflation data rose at a faster-than-expected pace of 2.8% in February.

Silver price (XAG) posts a fresh five-month high near $34.60 in North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal strengthens as investors turn cautious ahead of April 2, when United States (US) President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil reciprocal tariffs.

Market participants expect that Trump’s tariffs will result in an economic slowdown and boost inflationary pressures in the near term. Such a scenario increases the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

However, the US Dollar (USD) slumps as Trump’s tariffs will also weigh on the US economic outlook. Investors expect the impact the tariffs will have on US imports, which would be forced to pass them on to consumers. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides to near 104.00.

Meanwhile, hotter-than-expected US core PCE Inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy items – fails to provide support to the US Dollar. The underlying inflation data rose at a faster pace of 2.8% year-on-year compared to estimates and the prior release of 2.7%. Month-on-month core PCE inflation grew by 0.4%, faster than expectations and the former reading of 0.3%.

Accelerating inflationary pressures force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for a longer period. Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price advances toward the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.

The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.30 continues to provide support to the Silver price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds above 60.00, suggesting a resurgence in bullish momentum.

Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.

Silver daily chart

Brent crude oil price edged lower in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term as the price trades alongside primary and secondary trend line, while trying to vent off overbought saturation in the Stochastic, with negative signals emerging from it, while gathering positive momentum to rise anew.