Weekly Bullish Signal

Notice that the price level around today’s low may have some significance. It is near a previously marked price level established by an interim swing low from December at $68.82. Also, last week’s high was at $68.97. Once resistance is surpassed in an advance that price area is typically tested as support in some form. Therefore, today’s low was a successful test of support, and last Friday’s high of $68.97 was a test of resistance. That is a sign of strengthening. Moreover, a bullish continuation signal was generated on the weekly chart with a rally above last week’s high of $68.96 on Monday. That showed strength and established the beginnings of an uptrend on the higher time frame weekly chart.

Drop Below $68.80 May Test 20-Day MA

Nevertheless, if a drop below today’s low follows, there is potential support around $68.37 and the significant 20-Day MA, now at $67.97. Initial signs of a bullish reversal in crude oil triggered last week on a rally above the 20-Day line and downtrend line. Notice that they were identifying a very similar price level by the time the bullish reversal triggered last Thursday.

Given the extent of the of the recent bearish correction where the price of crude declined by $15.36 or 19%, it seems likely the current developing counter trend rally has more upside to go. That correction on a percentage basis was the largest of the prior larger four bearish corrections in crude oil, starting with the drop from the April 2024 peak.

Upside Breakout Targets $70.61 to $70.79

If today’s high is exceeded, then crude oil looks like it heads towards the next higher target zone from $70.61 to $70.79. That range begins with the 50% retracement and ends with a prior resistance level. Also, included within the range is the 127.2% extended target for the rising ABCD pattern at $70.81.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver jumps as investors seek safety amid rising stagflation risks and falling US real yields.
• Bulls clear $33.00 and $33.50; eyes now on $33.94 and key resistance at $34.86.
• Downside risks if price falls below $33.00, with support at $32.66 and 50-day SMA near $32.04.

Silver price soared on Tuesday, registering gains of over 2.10%, as a weaker US Dollar could not cap the metal’s advance amid increased fears of a stagflationary scenario, following a Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence poll. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $33.72, virtually unchanged.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

On Monday, I wrote, “Silver price formed a ‘quasi gravestone doji’ that usually appears in an uptrend, signifying a pause or end of the trend. Nevertheless, as it is preceded by a downtrend, it might indicate that bears had lost steam while buyers stepped in near the day’s lows of $32.89.” That’s what happened.

Bulls moved as a stampede and drove the precious metal higher, capitalizing on falling US yields, clearing the $33.00 and $33.50 psychological figures on its way to current spot prices. Should Silver continue to find acceptance higher, the XAG/USD could reach the March 20 peak of $33.94, ahead of testing the $34.00 figure. If surpassed, the next stop would be last October’s monthly peak at $34.86.

Conversely, if XAG/USD slips beneath $33.00, immediate support emerges at the March 21 low of $32.66. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.04.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

US crude oil prices kept rising in intraday trading, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, as the price moves alongside the trend line, with the gains achieved despite a stream of negative signals from the Stochastic, with the price attempting to vent off overbought saturation there.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,022.75

• A partial cease fire between Russia and Ukraine could be shortly announced.
• US CB Consumer Confidence plummeted in March amid Trump-related uncertainty.
• XAU/USD struggles to extend gains but holds above the $3,000 mark.

Gold recovered part of its shine on Tuesday, helped by tariffs-related concerns. The XAU/USD pair advanced towards $3,036.04 early in the American session, as headlines related to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs weighed on the US Dollar (USD).

Headlines indicated that Trump plans to adopt a two-step approach as his tariff strategy, seeking to ground the president’s reciprocal tariff regime in a more robust legal framework.

Meanwhile, fresh geopolitical headlines emerged, noting that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is in the making. News point to a “ceasefire at sea,” meaning reviving the Black Sea Grain deal,  allowing Ukraine to ship its grain and agricultural products to global markets.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine’s understanding is ceasefire is effective immediately following US announcement adding he will ask President Trump for weapons and sanctions on Russia if Moscow breaks the ceasefire.

Earlier in the day, the US reported that Consumer Confidence plummeted in March. The CB index printed at 92.9, missing the 94.2 expected and below the previous 100.1.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows bulls are regaining control. The pair has posted a higher high and a higher low, while advancing above all bullish moving averages. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) picked up momentum and currently provides dynamic support at around $2,954.70. At the same time, technical indicators resumed their advances within positive levels after correcting extreme overbought conditions.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD bullish potential seems limited. The pair is battling a mildly bearish 20 SMA, but still well above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, are retreating from their midlines, heading marginally lower within neutral levels.

Support levels: 3,014.00 2,999.30 2,984.70  

Resistance levels: 3,030.50 3,047.40 3,060.00

Platinum price closed lower once more below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $983, bolstering the odds of more losses as the price approaches the first target at $969.45.

As the Stochastic sends out negative signals, the price will likely head towards $963, then $950, however, a rush higher above $1000 would flip the scenario towards more gains, targeting $1017.

Expected trading range today is between $960 and $990.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

US crude oil prices kept rising in intraday trading, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term, as the price moves alongside the trend line, with the gains achieved despite a stream of negative signals from the Stochastic, with the price attempting to vent off overbought saturation there.

Natural gas price was little changed as it stabilized below the $4.180 barrier, with the $4.050 level representing an extension to the support of the breached ascending channel, with the price now engaging in sideways trading near $3.920.

Our negative outlook holds for the time being, with the price potentially heading towards the support of $3.750, with a breach opening the door for more losses towards $3.650 then $3.520. 

Expected trading range today is between $3.750 and $4.050.

Today’s price forecast: Transiently Bearish

Platinum price closed lower once more below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $983, bolstering the odds of more losses as the price approaches the first target at $969.45.

As the Stochastic sends out negative signals, the price will likely head towards $963, then $950, however, a rush higher above $1000 would flip the scenario towards more gains, targeting $1017.

Expected trading range today is between $960 and $990.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

Platinum price closed lower once more below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $983, bolstering the odds of more losses as the price approaches the first target at $969.45.

As the Stochastic sends out negative signals, the price will likely head towards $963, then $950, however, a rush higher above $1000 would flip the scenario towards more gains, targeting $1017.

Expected trading range today is between $960 and $990.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

Gold price edged higher in latest intraday trading while trying to regain its footing after leaning on the support of the 50-candle SMA, amid the dominance of the main upward trend as the price trades alongside primary and secondary trend lines, while the Stochastic reached oversold levels compared to the price’s movements, boosting the odds of recovery.