• Gold price consolidates a three-day correction but defends $3,000 early Tuesday.  
• The US Dollar turns south with US Treasury yields as tariff anxiety returns ahead of data and Fed speak.
• Gold price finds buyers again at $3,000; a move back toward $3,050 likely?

Gold price is licking its wounds early Tuesday, consolidating the three-day correction while defending the $3,000 mark. Further downside in the Gold price appears elusive as investors remain wary amid mixed news on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, awaiting the outcome of Monday’s US-Russia talks on the Ukraine ceasefire deal.

Gold price looks to US tariffs and Ukraine updates  

Additionally, the US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence data will also be closely watched alongside speeches from two US Federal Reserve (Fed) permanent voting members, Governor Adriana Kugler and New York President John Williams, for the next directional move in Gold price.

A lack of clarity on the likely US tariffs combined with the market’s nervousness on the prospects of a long-term Russia-Ukraine ceasefire revive the safe-haven demand for Gold price, pausing the US Dollar (USD) recovery momentum.

Asian stocks have turned lower after Chinese indices remain on the defensive due to the rising threat of US tariffs and worries over domestic growth.

On Monday, the US Dollar extended its recovery mode alongside a positive shift in risk sentiment, driven by increased expectations of narrower-than-feared Trump tariffs. Additionally, hawkish comments from Atlantic Fed President Raphael Bostic and strong US S&P Global preliminary business PMI aided the Greenback’s rebound, weighing negatively on the USD-denominated Gold price.

Bostic backed away from the idea of two rate cuts this year and said on Monday that he only sees one rate cut in 2025. Meanwhile, S&P Global flash US Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, jumped to 53.5 this month from 51.6 in February.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for the Gold price remains unchanged, with a ‘buy-the-dips’ trading strategy likely to extend following the confirmed breakout from the ascending triangle earlier this month.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has paused its descent, currently near 64, suggesting that Gold price could resume its upward trajectory toward record highs.

If buyers jump back into the game, Gold price could retest the record high of $3,058. The door will then open to test the triangle target, which was measured at $3,080.

On the flip side, Gold price could test Friday’s low of $3,000 should the downside regain traction. The next support is aligned at the previous week’s low of $2,982.  

Further south, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the triangle support confluence at $2,952 will be a tough nut to crack for sellers.

• Silver steadies near $33.00 after bears lose momentum at $32.89 intraday low.
• ‘Quasi gravestone doji’ hints at potential shift as bulls defend narrow support range.
• A break above $33.30 opens path to $33.94; downside risks if $32.90 support fails.

Silver’s price was flatline on Monday, hovering around $33.00 an ounce, snapping three consecutive days of losses. As the Asian session begins, XAG/USD remains firm and virtually unchanged.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price formed a ‘quasi gravestone doji’ that usually appears in an uptrend, signifying a pause or end of the trend. Nevertheless, as it is preceded by a downtrend, it might indicate that bears had lost steam while buyers stepped in near the lows of the day of $32.89, with prices finding acceptance within the $32.90 – $33.00 range.

For a bullish continuation, XAG/USD needs to clear the March 24 peak of $33.30. Once surpassed, the next stop is the March 21 daily high of $33.59, ahead of the March 20 peak of $33.94.

Conversely, if XAG/USD slips beneath $32.90, immediate support emerges at March 21 through at $32.66. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.04.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

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Silver price fell in intraday trading after retesting the important resistance of $33.30, while hurt by piercing the secondary upward trend line previously in the short term, as the Stochastic reached overbought levels compared to the price’s movements, hinting at negative divergence, which would double negative pressure on the price.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,010.80

• Markets kick-started the week with optimism about upcoming Trump’s tariffs.
• Major economies will post inflation updates in the upcoming days.
• XAU/USD nears the $3,000 threshold and may pierce it in the upcoming sessions.

The US Dollar (USD) surged after Wall Street’s opening, resulting in XAU/USD sliding to $3,005.87. As the American session unfolds, the USD retains its broad near-term strength, resulting in the bright metal trading barely above the aforementioned intraday low.

Optimism leads the way on Monday, with stock markets hesitating throughout the first half of the day, but Wall Street soaring. The three major United States (US) indexes are up over 1.5% each at the time of writing, amid hopes President Donald Trump’s pre-announced tariffs for April 2nd would be more targeted than previously threatened. The tech sector is among the best performers after the setback suffered in the last few weeks. Government bond yields are down as investors drop safety and seek high-yielding assets.

According to the latest headlines on the matter, Trump will be announcing tariffs on autos, aluminium and pharmaceuticals in the “very near” future.

Meanwhile, US data was mostly encouraging. S&P Global published the preliminary estimates of the March Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). The official report states that US business activity growth picked up momentum in March “ as a marked upturn in the service sector offset a renewed fall in manufacturing output.” The Composite PMI improved to 53.5 from 51.6 in February.

There will not be relevant US macroeconomic data on Tuesday, although inflation will be under the spotlight. Several major economies will post updates on price pressures, while the US is meant to release the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures on Friday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows its under pressure for a third consecutive day, although the decline still seems corrective. The pair keeps developing above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,949.20. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, keep heading north far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators continue to retreat from extreme levels, heading lower, although well above their midlines.

The near-term picture is bearish. In the 4-hour chart, a mildly bearish 20 SMA at around 3,030. At the same time, technical indicators gain downward momentum within negative levels, in line with another leg south. Still, the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes over $60 below the current level, limiting the odds for a steeper decline.

Support levels: 2,999.30 2,984.70 2,971.10

Resistance levels: 3,016.25 3,030.50 3,047.40

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Copper price engaged in some correctional trading on Friday before settling near $5.080, while trying to approach the major barrier of $5.1700 which still represents the door towards more upcoming gains. 

 As the price continues to be rebuffed at this barrier, while the Stochastic is attempting to exit overbought saturation levels, the chances of a downward correctional will rise, with the price potentially heading towards $4.900, however, a breach of the barrier would send the price towards $5.2900.

Expected trading range for today is between the $4.900 support and the $5.1500 resistance.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish as the barrier holds  

US crude oil prices expanded the gains in latest intraday trading and confirmed the breach of the pivotal resistance of $68.00, amid the dominance of the upward correctional trend in the short term as the price trades alongside the trend line, with ongoing support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.

• Gold price keeps the corrective downside intact toward $3,000 early Monday.  
• Upbeat mood on WSJ’s US tariffs report and Ukraine peace deal optimism weigh on Gold price.
• Gold price stays a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade on the daily chart so long as $2,950 is defended.

The gold price is trading on the back foot early Monday, looking to continue Friday’s correction from its all-time high of $3,058. Gold price bears the brunt of a risk-on market profile, diminishing its safe-haven appeal.

Gold price finds fresh sellers; what’s next?

At the onset of a new week, the Gold price maintains its corrective downside as markets shift back to riskier assets amid renewed optimism over US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, hopes for Chinese stimulus, and a potential Ukraine peace deal.

According to the latest report carried by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the White House is expected to narrow its list of tariffs due to take effect on April 2, likely omitting a set of industry-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal tariffs aimed at countries with significant trade ties to the United States (US).

Additionally, recent news that China is looking to boost consumption remains supportive of the risk flows, as markets remain hopeful of a likely end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict following Sunday’s meeting between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that the talks on Sunday in Saudi Arabia were “productive and focused.” 

Attention now turns to separate talks between Russian and US delegates on Monday regarding the Ukraine peace deal, as traders brace for the preliminary readings of global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) gauges, which will likely shed light on the prospects of the global economy in the face of Trump’s tariff-induced recession fears.

Furthermore, markets will closely monitor any developments surrounding Trump’s plans to implement global reciprocal tariffs starting April 2, which drive risk sentiment and the Gold price action in the near term.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, the Gold price maintains its ‘buy-the-dips’ status amid the confirmed breakout from the ascending triangle earlier this month.

However, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing south at the time of writing, a further retracement appears to be on the cards. That said, as long as the RSI holds above the midline, any pullbacks in the Gold price will be quickly bought back into.  

On the extension of the latest leg down, Gold price could test Friday’s low of $3,000, below which the previous week’s low of $2,982 will be tested.  

Further south, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the triangle support confluence at $2,950 will be a tough nut to crack for sellers.

Conversely, if buyers jump back into the game, Gold price could retest the record high of $3,058 if buyers regain poise. The door will then open up to test the triangle target measured at $3,080.

• Silver price remains steady as the US Dollar weakens amid growing concerns over a potential US economic slowdown.
• Silver may encounter resistance as the Federal Reserve holds its outlook for two rate cuts later this year.
• Improved risk sentiment and the White House’s revised tariff strategy could exert downward pressure on Silver prices.

Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher on Monday, trading around $33.10 per troy ounce during Asian hours after three consecutive sessions of losses. The rebound is driven by a weaker US Dollar as concerns over a potential US economic slowdown grow due to trade policies under President Donald Trump.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the USD against six major currencies, halts its three-day winning streak and trades lower near 104.10. Meanwhile, market participants await the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March.

However, Silver may face headwinds as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its outlook for two rate cuts later this year, following its decision to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% during its March meeting. The Fed’s stance, aligning with forecasts of slower GDP growth and higher unemployment, helps counterbalance inflation concerns, which may be exacerbated by aggressive tariffs imposed by President Trump.

Additionally, Silver prices could come under pressure from safe-haven flows amid improved risk sentiment as the White House revises its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 implementation. According to the Wall Street Journal, the administration is expected to drop some industry-specific tariffs while imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries with strong trade ties to the US.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions ease following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh on Sunday. Efforts to broker a ceasefire continue, with President Trump advocating for an end to the three-year war. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov discussed measures to safeguard energy and critical infrastructure, while US and Russian delegates are set for separate talks on Monday, according to Bloomberg.