The copper price has reinforced its bullish momentum by repeatedly fluctuating near the $4.9300 level, maintaining a positive stance within the boundaries of its ascending channel. Meanwhile, $4.8100 continues to serve as additional support in recent trading.
Currently, as the Stochastic indicator moves closer to the overbought zone, it could boost the price’s potential to gain the extra positive momentum needed to reach the channel’s resistance, which extends toward $5.000. This level represents a strong psychological barrier, so we recommend closely monitoring the price action once this target is approached.
Expected Trading Range for Today:
Between $4.8500 and $5.0000
Today’s Price Forecast: Bullish
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Silver price gains momentum to around $33.90 in Tuesday’s Asian session, adding 0.16% on the day.
Heightened economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks and rising demand underpin the Silver price.
The Fed interest rate decision will be the highlight on Wednesday.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its upside to around $33.90, its highest level since October 30, 2024, during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, bolstered by the weaker US Dollar (USD). The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, economic uncertainty and growing industrial demand provide some support to the white metal.
The mounting fears of a recession in the United States (US) and persistent uncertainty over trade relations weigh on investor sentiment, boosting safe-haven assets like Silver. Late Monday, US President Donald Trump said that he would be imposing both broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on April 2. Trump has already imposed a 20% tariff rate in China and a 25% levy on steel and aluminum. He also announced a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods.
Additionally, the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East contribute to the Silver price’s upside. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel resumes military operations against Hamas across the Gaza Strip, adding that the country will act against the militant group with increasing military force.
Supply deficits and growing industrial demand create a strong tailwind for the white metal. According to the global investment company WisdomTree, investors own a significant portion of it and expect higher prices to encourage sales. Silver’s industrial demand has reached all-time highs, owing to its use in photovoltaic applications, 5G technology, and automotive electronics.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will be closely monitored on Wednesday. The US central bank is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.50% at the March meeting. The primary focus will be on the Fed’s policy guidance. Any hawkish remarks from Fed officials could lift the Greenback and undermine the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The price of crude oil has risen in recent intraday trading, confirming the break of a short-term downward sub-trendline.
This move is supported by its continuous trading above its 50-day simple moving average.
Additionally, it is trading along an upward corrective trendline, with the onset of a positive RSI crossover after the indicator reached significantly exaggerated oversold levels relative to the price movement.
Our forecast indicates further corrective upward movement for oil in the upcoming sessions, especially if it manages to break the resistance at $67.95.
Such a breakthrough would confirm the bullish double bottom pattern, with the price then targeting the resistance level at $70.00 as the next price target.
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Gold price sits at all-time highs above $3,000 as Middle East tensions escalate.
US Dollar finds haven demand as geopolitics outweigh economic uncertainties.
Gold price eyes more upside as the daily technical setup stays bullish.
Gold price is holding firm in Asian trades on Tuesday, building on its record-setting uptrend. Escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions are the primary driver behind the latest leg up in Gold price.
Gold price capitalizes on geopolitical jitters ahead of Fed
Reuters reported early Tuesday that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas collapsed after Israeli military hit targets across Gaza, with Palestinian health ministry officials reporting at least 100 dead.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office accused Hamas of “repeated refusal to release our hostages” and rejecting proposals from US President Donald Trump’s Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff.
In response, Hamas turned down the proposal of releasing 59 hostages still held in Gaza.
Further, some unconfirmed reports that an Iranian ship gathering intelligence was sunk by US forces as Gaza attacks took place added to the Middle East tensions. Over the weekend, US launched airstrikes on large-scale strikes on Yemen, targeting the Iran-backed militant group – Houthis. In response, Houthis attacked US vessels in the Red Sea.
Investors scurried to the traditional safe-haven Gold price on intensifying geopolitical risks as economic uncertainties linger on the Trump-induced global trade war.
White House reaffirmed on Tuesday that the reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on April 2. Meanwhile, US Retail Sales data for February rose less than expected, coming in at 0.2% on a monthly basis. The market forecast was for a 0.7% growth.
The data added to the US economic slowdown worries, helping Gold price stay afloat on Monday while the US Dollar (USD) continued to remain at the losing.
However, in Tuesday’s trading, the US Dollar finds fresh buyers on a flight to safety alongside Gold price. It remains to be seen if the Greenback can extend the rebound ahead of Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements.
That said, markets could resort to repositioning, cashing in on their Gold longs following the ongoing record-setting rally. For now, geopolitics will remain in the spotlight, driving the Gold price action in the sessions ahead.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price looks to extend the upside break of an ascending triangle formation as confirmed last Thursday.
Having found acceptance above the $3,000 psychological barrier on Monday, Gold buyers now keep their sight on the $3,050 mark.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is grinding higher, prodding the overbought region near 69.50 at the press time. The leading indicator suggests that there is more room for the upside.
If a correction sets in, Gold price could challenge the initial demand area near the $2,980 level.
The next downside caps are at the previous triangle resistance-turned-support at $2,956 and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,929.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver holds at $33.85, struggling to breach the $34.00 resistance as momentum stalls for the third straight session.
RSI flattens near overbought levels, suggesting bulls may be regrouping before a push toward last year’s $34.86 peak.
Failure to clear $34.00 could trigger a pullback, with support at $33.39, followed by a key floor at $33.00.
Silver prices consolidated near the $33.80 mark for the third consecutive trading day, with buyers struggling to clear the $34.00 a troy ounce mark. At the time of writing, as the Asian session commences, the XAG/USD trades at $33.85, which is virtually unchanged.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver’s price rally halted once the grey metal peaked yearly at $34.08. Since then, buyers have lacked the strength to drive the precious metal to challenge last year’s peak of $34.86, which, if taken out, would pave the way for testing the $35.00 mark.
Worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned flat near overbought territory. This hints that buyers could be taking a breather before launching an assault to challenge higher prices.
Conversely, XAG/USD failed to conquer $34.00, paving the way for a pullback. The first support would be the February 14 high of $33.39. A breach of the latter will expose the $33.00 figure, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.57.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Softer-than-anticipated United States data weighs on US Dollar demand.
The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on monetary policy on Wednesday.
The XAU/USD pair consolidates at record levels, higher highs in sight.
A better market mood weighs on the US Dollar (USD), yet that same positive mood maintains Gold’s gains limited.
Spot Gold consolidates just below $3,000 a troy ounce on Monday, recovering the ground shed on Friday. A better market mood weighs on the US Dollar (USD), yet that same positive mood maintains Gold’s gains limited. Exacerbating range trading, the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its decision on monetary policy next Wednesday.
The Fed is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.25%-4.50% amid the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s trade war and its impact on the economic performance of the world’s largest economy. However, the central bank will also release the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) or dot-plot, a document providing a fresh view of the overall state of the American economy alongside officials’ aims at interest rate moves. Finally, Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a press conference to explain policymakers’ reasoning beyond the announcement.
In the meantime, softer-than-anticipated US data further weighs on the USD. The country released the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which fell to -20 in March, much worse than the -1.9 expected and the previous 5.7. The US also reported that Retail Sales were up 0.2% in February, below the 0.7% advance expected although better than the -1.2% posted in January.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The XAU/USD pair consolidates near record highs, and the daily chart shows that buyers paused but did not give up. The pair stands well above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which advances far above the 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, eased from extreme overbought levels and stabilized well above their midlines, suggesting sellers are nowhere to be found.
The near-term picture is bullish. Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart resumed their advances with uneven strength yet well into positive territory. Furthermore, XAU/USD trades above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA currently providing dynamic support at around $2,925.80.
Notice that the price zone around the 20-Day MA and internal uptrend line trend indicators were successfully tested today as resistance following a breakdown below those lines last week. This is typical behavior of price in a developing downtrend. Prior support is tested as resistance before a continuation of the bearish decline. There has been one downswing since the new trend high of $4.90 was reached last week. A swing low was established at last Thursday’s low of $3.96 and today’s high generated a possible lower swing high. If there is a decline below last Thursday’s low of $3.95, a second leg down will be indicated.
Targets 50-Day MA at $3.84
Since the 20-Day MA failed to hold as support, the 50-Day MA, currently at $3.84, becomes a potential target. Moreover, the uptrend that began from the recent $2.99 swing low shows a bearish reversal if the higher swing low of $3.74 from March 3 is exceeded to the downside. Similarly, since the internal uptrend line was broken and it marks support for a trend with a relatively steep angle, the next lower trendline becomes a potential target. Keep in mind that both the dynamic 50-Day line and next lower trendline are rising. Despite the potential for further downside in prices, the market for natural gas will provide clues based on how it behaves around particular price levels of support and resistance.
If the 20-Day MA and trendline continue to show an area of resistance, the current bearish pullback can be expected to continue, or a consolidation phase exhibiting downward pressure may form. Although there were signs of brief strength over the past few days as natural gas traded above the 20-Day line and trendline, on each of the prior three days the closing price for the day was below the lines.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Bitcoin’s price has slightly retreated in recent intraday trading, relying on support from its 50-period simple moving average.
This move appears aimed at gaining some positive momentum to sustain the ascending corrective wave dominating its short-term trading, supported by a series of positive RSI signals after previously reaching extreme oversold levels.
Outlook:
We anticipate that Bitcoin’s price will resume its upward movement in upcoming sessions, provided that the near support at $81,970.00 holds firm.
With this support intact, our price target extends to $87,000.
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April WTI crude oil (CLJ25) today is up +0.21 (+0.31%), and April RBOB gasoline (RBJ25) is up +0.236 (+1.10%).
Crude oil prices today climbed to a 1-1/2 week high and are mildly higher. Today’s dollar weakness is bullish for crude prices. Crude is also climbing on heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East that could lead to a disruption of crude supplies from the region after the US launched strikes against Houthi Rebels in Yemen for attacking shipping in the Red Sea. Gains in crude are limited by hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine, with President Trump set to speak with Russian President Putin this week as Mr. Trump pushes for an end to the three-year conflict.
Crude prices are finding support today from rising tensions in the Middle East, which could lead to disruption of supplies from the region. The US launched weekend strikes on Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and Defense Secretary Hegseth said strikes will be “unrelenting” until the group stops attacking vessels in the Red Sea.
Today’s global economic news was mixed for crude prices. On the positive side, China Feb industrial production rose +5.9% year-to-date, stronger than expectations of +5.3% year-to-date. Also, China Feb retail sales rose +4.0% year-to-date, stronger than expectations of +3.8% year-to-date. Conversely, US Feb retail sales rose +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m. Also, the US Mar Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions fell -25.7 to a 14-month low of -20.0, weaker than expectations of -1.9. In addition, the US Mar NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -3 to a 7-month low of 39, weaker than expectations of no change at 42.
A bearish factor for crude was Sunday’s action by Goldman Sachs to cut its year-end WTI crude price forecast to $67 a barrel from $72 and lower its 2025 global oil demand forecast by 18% to 900,000 bpd, citing a slowing global economy from tariffs and the OPEC+ plan to increase production.
On the bearish side of oil prices, the markets remain concerned that US tariffs and retaliatory tariffs will curb global growth and undercut energy demand.
Ramped-up Russian oil exports are negative for crude prices after data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa showed Russian Feb oil products exports reached a 1-year high of 2.5 million bpd.
Crude prices were undercut when OPEC+ said on March 3 that it would restart some halted crude output in April, adding 138,000 bpd to global supplies. That is the first of a series of monthly hikes to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, which will gradually restore a total of 2.2 million bpd. OPEC+ had previously planned to restore production between January and late 2025, but now that production cut won’t be fully restored until September 2026. OPEC Feb crude production rose +320,000 bpd to a 14-month high of 27.35 million bpd.
In a supportive factor for crude oil prices, the US on January 10 imposed new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry that could curb global oil supplies. The measures targeted Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftgas, which exported about 970,000 bpd of Russian crude in the first 10 months of 2024, accounting for about 30% of its tanker flow, according to Bloomberg data. The US also targeted insurers and traders linked to hundreds of tanker cargoes. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -45,000 bpd to 3.48 million bpd in the week to March 9.
Crude oil demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to Chinese customs data, China’s 2024 crude imports fell -1.9% y/y to 553 MMT. China is the world’s biggest crude importer.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -20% w/w to 60.89 million bbl in the week ended March 14.
Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of March 7 were -5.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -4.8% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending March 7 rose +0.5% w/w to 13.575 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending March 14 rose +1 rig to 487 rigs, mildly above the 3-year low of 472 rigs posted on January 24. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.
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Gold is currently trading within a narrow range of sideways movements at intraday levels.
It is aiming to build positive momentum that could help it surpass the psychological barrier at $3,000, a level it touched during last Friday’s session.
The price also managed to shake off the bullish exhaustion, as indicated by the RSI signals.
Next Price Target:
The next target is set at $3,055, according to the short-term symmetrical triangle pattern.
This target comes amid strong control by the primary uptrend and price trading in line with the trendline.
Positive Scenario:
The bullish scenario hinges on the price remaining above the support level at $2,950.
A break below this level could trigger downward pressure and potentially initiate a corrective wave that may take some time to unfold.
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