XAU/USD Current price: $2,927.84

• US inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, eased in February.
• Trade war concerns keep investors on their toes, weighs on the US Dollar.
• XAU/USD aims to break higher after a long week consolidative phase.

Spot Gold kept trading within familiar levels throughout the first half of Wednesday, finding buyers on approaches to the $2,900 mark yet meeting sellers ahead of the $2,930 level. The US Dollar (USD) broad weakness maintained the bright metal afloat yet fell short of boosting demand.

Wall Street opened with a positive tone but quickly turned into the red after the United States (US) reported softer-than-expected February inflation figures. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 0.2% MoM in February, while the annual figure printed at 2.8%. Finally, core annual inflation rose 3.1%, with all figures coming below expected.

Easing price pressures temporarily boosted speculation the American economy was doing good enough to skip President Donald Trump’s inspired chaos. However, trade-war-related concerns weighed more. The US Dollar came under renewed selling pressure after the American opening, pushing XAU/USD to the upper end of its recent range.

Market participants, however, maintain the focus on trade tensions. Levies on all steel and aluminium imports into the US pay levies of 25% as of today, with Canada and Europe announcing retaliatory measures. Canada announced new trade duties on some $21 billion worth of US goods, while the European Commission launched levies worth around $29 billion on US industrial and agricultural products starting April 1.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it is pressuring the upper end of the aforementioned range, albeit with limited bullish strength. The pair rests above a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which provides support at around $2,912.50. The same chart shows, however, that the Momentum indicator remains stuck around its 100 line. At the same time, the 100 and 200 SMAs head firmly north far below the current level, in line with the dominant bullish trend. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator advances at around 60, also supportive of a bullish continuation.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD bullish momentum increased. The pair is developing above all its moving averages, with converging 20 and 100 SMAs providing support around the daily low. The 200 SMA keeps heading north far below the shorter ones, while technical indicators aim north well above their midlines, in line with an upcoming leg higher.

Support levels:2,912.50 2,893.35 2,881.80

Resistance levels: 2,929.90 2,941.40 2,956.10

• Silver price rises to near $33.00 as the US Dollar underperforms amid escalating fears of a US economic slowdown.
• Investors await the US inflation data for February.
• Hopes of a truce between Russia and Ukraine could weigh on the Silver price.

Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs to near $33.00 in European trading hours on Wednesday, the highest level seen in more than two weeks. The white metal strengthens as deepening fears of a United States (US) economic slowdown have kept the US Dollar (USD) on the backfoot. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is slightly higher but remains close to an over four-month low of 103.35.

Investors expect the US economy is exposed to a recession as the tariff policies of President Donald Trump could weigh on consumer demand in the near term, assuming that tariffs will be inflationary.  Fears of a US recession escalated after comments from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in a CBS interview on Tuesday indicated that policies by the President are worthwhile despite fears that they could lead to a recession. The appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, increases when economic uncertainty heightens.

Growing US economic risks have fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates sooner rather than later. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 42% chance that the central bank will cut interest rates in May, significantly increased from 10.4% seen a month ago. For fresh guidance on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

Economists expect the year-on-year headline inflation data to have risen at a slower pace of 2.9%, compared to the 3% increase seen in January. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is estimated to have decelerated to 3.2% from the prior release of 3.3%.

On the geopolitical front, growing optimism over an end of war in Ukraine has failed to weigh on the Silver price. On Tuesday, Ukraine agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in a meeting with US officials in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Russia wants to speak with US President Trump before commenting on the acceptability of a temporary ceasefire.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern on a daily timeframe, which indicates indecisiveness among market participants. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the February 14 high of $33.40, while the upward-sloping border is placed from the December 31 low of $28.78.

The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.20, continues to support the Silver price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00. A bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI sustains above that level.

Looking down, the psychological level of $30.00 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.

Silver daily chart

Gold price continues to fluctuate near 2920.00$ level, waiting to breach this level to confirm the continuation of the bullish wave and achieve more gains in the upcoming period, noticing that stochastic attempts to gain the positive momentum to support het chances of achieving the required breach.

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• Gold price consolidates Tuesday’s 1% rally above $2,900 amid cautious markets.
• Traders cash in on their US Dollar short positions heading into the US inflation test.
• Gold price reclaims 21-day SMA at $2,910, with more upside likely on daily bullish RSI.

Gold price trades with caution above $2,900 early Wednesday as buyers take a breather weighing a global tariff war while gearing up for the highly-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States (US) due later in the day.  

Gold price looks to US inflation for a fresh boost    

A typical cautious environment prevails heading into the US consumer inflation data publication, leaving Gold price gyrating in a narrow range. The US Dollar (USD) sees a short-covering rebound as traders opt to cash in on their positions following the recent downward spiral.

The renewed uptick in the USD and the US Treasury bond yields appear to check the Gold price recovery. Still, buyers could jump back into the game if the US annual headline and core CPI figures come in softer-than-expected, prompting the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) to proceed with interest rate cuts this year. In such a scenario, the Greenback and the US Treasury bond yields will likely face fresh supply, boosting the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

However, Gold price could reverse the previous rebound and head further south in case the inflation data surprises markets to the upside. Unexpectedly hot CPI data could add credence to the Fed’s cautious outlook on inflation and rate cuts, weighing negatively on the yieldless Gold price.

In the meantime, US President Donald Trump-led tit-for-tat tariffs remain in the spotlight, affecting risk tone and the traditional store of value, Gold price. White House staff confirmed on Tuesday that a global 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imported into the US would take effect on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, US Trade Secretary Peter Navarro said that “April 2nd we begin the process with reciprocity.”

In response, Canada’s Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson warned that the country would impose non-tariff measures, including restrictions on oil exports to US if trade tensions with Washington intensify further. 

Markets also eagerly await the US-Russia peace talks on the Ukraine conflict due later on Wednesday, especially after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed late Tuesday to a 30-day ceasefire proposed by the US if Russia accepts the plan, per CNN News.

Trade war and geopolitical risks remain at the centre of the market’s attention, which leave any impact on Gold price from the US inflation data short-lived.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price managed to close Tuesday above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,910, offering buyers a fresh hope for more upside.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays firm above 50, justifying the bullish potential.

Should buyers sustain above the 21-day SMA at $2,910 following the US inflation prints, the February 26 high of $2,930 will be next on their radars.

Further up, Gold price will target an all-time high of $2,956, followed by the $2,970 round level.

If the selling pressure creeps in on hot US CPI data, immediate support is seen at the previous day’s low of $2,880.

Failure to resist above that level will open the door to testing the $2,850 psychological barrier.

Additional declines will likely challenge the $2,835 static support area.  

The EURGBP price succeeded to regain the bullish bias by surpassing 0.8315 resistance line, forming many bullish waves to notice achieving big gains by settling near 0.8430 now.

We expect to form additional support at 0.8400, along with getting continuous positive momentum by the major indicators, to increase the chances of targeting 0.8460 level, while surpassing it will extend trades towards the second target at 0.8485.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8410 and 0.8460

Trend forecast: Bullish

Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) ended yesterday above 80474.40$ level, to hint the attempt to stop the bearish correction that dominated the recent trades, but we notice that the technical indicators show clear negative signals now, as stochastic shows overbought signals, while the EMA50 forms continuous negative pressure against the price.

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The EURJPY pair formed strong bullish rally yesterday, confirming its surrender to the domination of the bullish bias, to notice its fluctuation near the second target at 161.65, taking advantage of its stability above the MA55.

We expect to form additional support at 160.10, beside stochastic additional positive momentum, to continue forming the bullish waves and attempt to press on 162.40 resistance line, followed by monitoring its behavior due to the importance of this level to detect the next trend.

The expected trading range for today is between 160.80 and 162.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

Gold price touched 2920.00$ level and found solid resistance there, noticing that stochastic shows clear negative signals that might hinder the mission to achieve the breach, which might force the price to provide temporary negative trades and testing 2895.00$ areas in the upcoming sessions.

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Lowest Price Since May 2023

Last week’s low was the lowest traded price for crude oil since a spike in volatility was seen during the first week in May 2023. It indicated the potential for a continuation of the downtrend that began from the September 2023 highs. Also, it marks a potentially significant support zone, particularly since crude has already fallen significantly in the current bearish correction.

What is the chance that new lows will see enough selling pressure to keep the price of crude falling? Certainly, it is less than it might be if crude was falling through long-term support from a closer beginning point, such as a bearish continuation pattern for example. Nonetheless, a decisive decline below $65.40 could see a drop to test support around the May 2023 lows.

Strength Indicated Above $67.27

On the upside, there are no signs of a potential bullish reversal until Tuesday’s high of $67.27 is exceeded. If that price level triggers, crude could test an interim swing high of $68.38. That swing high is part of the downtrend price structure. If it is reclaimed, then crude will show signs of improving demand and it will trigger a bullish reversal as a prior swing low will have been exceeded.

Depending on when it happens, a double bottom breakout may also trigger. The convergence of several lines around $70.23 will then define the next higher potential resistance zone. That zone includes a downtrend line, a rising trendline across support starting from September of last year, and a horizontal level from an interim swing low from late-December.

Key Resistance at 20-Day MA

However, the 20-Day MA, at $69.80 currently, defines the more significant potential resistance area. Keep in mind that since the 20-Day line is falling. Therefore, it may reach the price zone mentioned above prior to or when natural gas reaches the zone.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2916.67

• US President Donald Trump lifts tariffs on Canadian steel and platinum.
• The United States will release fresh Consumer Price Index figures on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD pressures the upper end of its range, aims to regain its bullish pose.

Gold trades with a positive tone on Tuesday, pressuring the upper end of its recent range, as the US Dollar (USD) remains vulnerable due to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Trump embarked on a trade war in the first days of his mandate, spurring concerns about a potential US economic slowdown. Since then, Trump kept escalating tensions, announcing that he instructed Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to add an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium coming from Canada, pushing the total levy to 50%. He added such tariffs will go into effect on Wednesday.

The decision came after Canada imposed a 25% tax on electricity exported to the US. In response, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said if there is a recession, “there’s one person to be blamed,” adding he will not hesitate to shut off electricity exports to the US if the trade war continues.

Other than that, the US published the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed that job openings totalled 7.74 million at the end of January. The reading was above expectations of 7.63 million but below the 7.508 million posted in December.

The focus will remain on the US, as the country will release the February Consumer Price Index (PCI) on Wednesday. Market participants anticipate a 0.3% monthly increase, below the 0.5% posted in January. Annual inflation is expected at 2.9%, while the core annual reading is foreseen at 3.2%, down from the previous 3.3%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair suggests buyers are regaining confidence, although additional advances are not yet confirmed. Technical indicators turned marginally higher, but lack strength, while the Momentum indicator remains below its 100 level. At the same time, the pair is battling a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level. The overall picture favors another leg higher, although additional technical confirmation is still needed.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is pretty much neutral. The pair is pivoting above, converging and directionless 20 and 100 SMAs, while the 200 SMA advances below the shorter ones. At the same time, technical indicators have lost their directional strength and turned marginally lower within neutral levels, not enough to anticipate an upcoming slide.

Support levels:2,906.70 2,893.35 2,881.80

Resistance levels: 2,927.90 2,941.40 2,956.10