Via Metal Miner

The Copper Monthly Metals Index (MMI) retraced to the downside with a 4.23% decline from March to April. Looking at copper prices today, analysts seem to be struggling with ongoing trade policy shifts.  

Copper Prices Zigzag Amid Uncertain Trade Policy

Comex copper prices have experienced wild swings over the past few months. First, they hit a new all-time high in March before plunging in April. By mid-May, they entered into a shaky sideways trend.

Source: MetalMiner Insights

Tariffs continue to drive the market. This month, markets have mostly been reacting to the U.S.’s most recent deals with China and the UK. Both appeared to ease concerns that the broad-based tariffs announced over recent months may prove less extreme than expected, resulting in renewed optimism about the global economy. 

While mostly stable, the bias appears increasingly to the downside for Comex copper prices today. This is mainly because tariff deals have yet to fully ease the demand concerns that continue to plague the market. 

Copper Study Group Forecasts Surplus

The International Copper Study Group counts itself among those not particularly concerned about supply. Contrary to previous worries that the copper market was on the verge of growing deficit, the ICSG expects the market to maintain its surplus status in both 2025 and 2026.

The group noted “Uncertainty surrounding international trade policy that is likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand, usage growth rates have been revised down compared to the Group’s September 2024 forecasts.” As a result, the surplus expectation more than doubled for 2025. Considering the surplus accumulated during 2024, this will leave the market with a significant cushion as trade policy evolves.

U.S.-China Relationship Continues to Stoke Uncertainty

While the raw material market remains tight, global growth prospects remain a concern. The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in Q1. Meanwhile, deflation remains a lingering problem for China, which is struggling to lean on domestic demand amid trade barriers in the U.S.

The U.S.-China trade deal may have eased some market concerns about the impact of steep tariffs on the world’s two largest economies. However, uncertainty lingers as the current agreement will expire in 90 days and still leaves a steep 30% tariff on Chinese goods.

Copper Stocks Up as Prices Slide

Global stocks returned to the upside in May, offering no support for copper prices today. While inventory fluctuations do not boast a strong correlation to copper prices, the rise suggests demand conditions appear relatively stable. Both SHFE and LME inventory levels experienced considerable drawdowns over recent months as material moved to the U.S. amid tariff concerns.

Source: MacroMicro

But while LME stocks continue to decline, SHFE stocks have started to rebound. This, alongside the continued rise in Comex stocks, has added a further drag to bullish expectations for copper prices.

U.S. Dollar Stabilizes

Among the other leading indicators for copper prices, the U.S. dollar index appeared to stabilize, halting declines that pushed the index below its long-term range in previous months.

Source: MetalMiner Insights, Chart & Correlation Analysis Tool

The index, which trades inversely to copper prices, has started to move sideways after regaining some of the losses accumulated in recent months. While it has fallen short of rebounding back to where it stood at the start of the year, the modest increase has seemingly weighed on copper prices over recent weeks.

Where Can the Dollar Go From Here?

Investor expectations remain mixed on the future direction of the index. Speculation that the White House might favor a weaker dollar relative to other currencies added considerable weight, particularly after the Trump administration noted the strength of the U.S. dollar has come at the expense of U.S. exports. However, U.S. officials have subsequently clarified that currency policy is not part of ongoing trade negotiations.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has yet to blink with regard to rate cuts. Chairman Jerome Powell has remained reluctant to cut rates since last year, as tariff announcements have risked further inflation pressures in the U.S. While the most recent CPI and negotiations with China could incentivize a softer stance from the Fed, Powell has repeatedly cited “uncertainty” as reason to hold rates steady. 

A cut from the Fed would add further pressure on the U.S. dollar, potentially dragging it back below its current range. This could stem further losses for copper prices today, tomorrow, and in the near future. Read MetalMiner’s market outlook and copper price forecast here.

By Nichole Bastin

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• Silver price jumps to near $33.20 as the US Dollar underperforms on the US Sovereign Credit downgrade.
• Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating by one notch to Aa1.
• Investors await the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks in Vatican City.

Silver price (XAG/USD) hits a fresh weekly high to near $33.20 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) extends its downside on the United States (US) credit rating erosion in the wake of large debt levels and escalated fiscal imbalances.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 99.50, the lowest level seen in two weeks. Technically, a soft US Dollar makes the Silver price a value bet for investors. Additionally, concerns over US credit erosion improve the safe-haven demand of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US Sovereign Credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa amid concerns over ballooning debt levels to near $36 trillion. The credit rating firm also warned of debt levels widening further, with US President Donald Trump aiming to pass a new tax-cut bill to fulfil his economic agenda.

However, Republican lawmakers didn’t back the new tax bill in a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill on Tuesday due to disagreement over higher deductions in state and local tax payments, according to a Republican Representative Mike Lawler, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on the Russia-Ukraine truce talks in the Vatican City. On Monday, US President Trump confirmed immediate ceasefire talks between Moscow and Kyiv through a post on Truth. Social, but didn’t mention any specific timeframe. Trump expressed confidence that talks would be majorly about ending the war and not a temporary truce. Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War,” Trump said. Signs of progress in the Russia-Ukraine truce talks towards ending the war will be unfavorable for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price delivers a breakout of the Descending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe, which results in a strong upside move. The near-term trend of the white metal is bullish as it holds the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.65.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend. Should a fresh bullish momentum emerge if the RSI breaks above 60.00.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart

Dollar Slides as Moody’s Downgrade Shakes Confidence

The U.S. dollar index (.DXY) slipped to a two-week low following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating last Friday. The downgrade cited rising fiscal risk and projected deficit expansion under President Trump’s proposed tax cuts. UBS analysts noted that the downgrade triggered a fresh round of dollar selling, supporting gold by making it more attractive to foreign buyers.

In FX markets, the dollar weakened across the board. It fell to 144.095 yen and dropped 0.7% against the Swiss franc. Traders are now watching U.S.-Japan discussions, which may touch on currency management and volatility. With Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expected to meet his Japanese counterpart this week, any signal favoring a weaker dollar could give gold bulls more fuel.

Bond Market Roiled by Fiscal Fears

Long-end Treasury yields jumped on Wednesday, as the 30-year yield topped 5% and the 10-year yield hit 4.5%, spurred by expectations that the Trump administration’s tax bill could deepen the deficit by up to $5 trillion. According to Deutsche Bank, final outcomes on the tax bill will significantly shape near-term deficit projections.

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio added to the pessimism, warning that the real risk is not default, but inflation triggered by the Federal Reserve potentially printing money to manage debt service. This sentiment, echoed in the bond market, is driving capital into gold as investors seek a hedge against monetary debasement.

Gold Technicals Hint at Breakout Potential

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, delaying the bullish rally, to continue providing sideways trading by its stability near 193.00, as the price remains stable above the main support at 191.20, so the bullish suggestion remains valid, to expect renewing the pressure on the obstacle at 194.60 in order to resume the bullish attack, and 195.30 level represents the next main target for the bullish trading.

The attempt of the moving average 55 to form extra support by its fluctuation near 192.00 makes us keep the bullish suggestion until reaching the mentioned targets.

The expected trading range for today is between 192.45 and 194.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track.

Copper price lost its negative momentum, which forces it to form a new bearish trading, delaying the negative attack by its repeated stability above the extra support at $4.5000, reinforced by the stability of the moving average 55 above it as appears in the above image.

We expect the confinement of the trading between the mentioned support at $4.6600 level as barrier against activating the bullish track, therefore, we will stay aside until surpassing one of these level, which will detect the trend in the near period, note that breaching the barrier will provide chance for achieving some gains by its rally to $4.7500 reaching the resistance near $4.9100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5500 and $4.6600.

Trend forecast: Neutral

Copper price lost its negative momentum, which forces it to form a new bearish trading, delaying the negative attack by its repeated stability above the extra support at $4.5000, reinforced by the stability of the moving average 55 above it as appears in the above image.

We expect the confinement of the trading between the mentioned support at $4.6600 level as barrier against activating the bullish track, therefore, we will stay aside until surpassing one of these level, which will detect the trend in the near period, note that breaching the barrier will provide chance for achieving some gains by its rally to $4.7500 reaching the resistance near $4.9100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5500 and $4.6600.

Trend forecast: Neutral

• Silver rallies over 1%, clearing $33.00 for the first time since April amid renewed safe-haven demand.
• Technical breakout confirmed, with XAG/USD surpassing the 50-day SMA and a key resistance trendline near $32.75.
• Momentum favors bulls, as RSI trends higher, signaling potential for further gains toward $33.50 and $34.00.
• Downside risk limited to $33.00 support; failure to hold could expose the 100-day SMA at $31.98.

Silver price soared on Tuesday, climbing past the $33.00 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar weakened across the board. Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, Moody’s downgrade of US government debt, and the impending increase in the US budget deficit fueled demand for the safe-haven appeal of the gray metal.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, Silver trades sideways, though slightly tilted to the upside. Buyers clearing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.75 opened the door to surpass the $33.00 mark as they eye a test of the $33.50 figure. It is worth noting that the impulse cleared a resistance trendline drawn from the April and May highs, which were broken at around $32.70/85, confirming the continuation of the trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) favors buyers. Therefore, if the RSI continues to trend higher, it would confirm the continuation of the ongoing upward trend.

On the other hand, Silver’s key support level is $33.00. A break below could send XAG/USD diving towards the 100-day SMA at $31.98, ahead of testing the 200-day SMA at $31.30.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Rise off Strong Support

The bullish reversal seen today established a higher swing low around potential dynamic support of the 200-Day MA, now at $3.19, and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.07. In addition, natural gas is on track to close above the downtrend line drawn from the recent trend high of $4.90, after closing below the line yesterday. The two key price levels are last week’s high of $3.10 for support and the most recent lower swing high from last week at $3.84.

Higher Swing Low Established

With a recent swing low, natural gas prices are likely to rise. A new higher swing low establishes a potential rising ABCD pattern. The initial target for that pattern is up at $4.08. That is where the two upswings of the pattern will match and therefore it identifies a potential resistance level. Since the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the full decline from the March high is at $4.12, together with ABCD target, generates a potential resistance zone from around $4.08 to $4.12.

Close Above 20-Day MA, Lead to 50-Day MA

Below the recent swing high is potential resistance of the 50-Day MA, now at $3.63. Once the 20-Day line is reclaimed, the 50-Day line becomes the next upside target. A sustained breakout above the 50-Day MA puts the recent interim swing high of $3.84 in sight and a rally above that level will confirm a continuation of the advance from the April swing low.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Today GasBuddy released its 2025 Summer Travel Survey results and forecast, revealing that the Great American road trip remains resilient despite ongoing economic uncertainty.

The study forecasts that the national average price of gasoline will be $3.08 per gallon on Memorial Day, making it the cheapest Memorial Day at the pump since 2021, but lowest inflation adjusted since 2003*.

Prices are forecast to average $3.02 per gallon over the summer from Memorial Day through Labor Day, with a sub-$3 per gallon national average possible on some days, especially toward the latter half of the summer.

Road Trip Revival

According to GasBuddy’s survey, 69% of Americans plan to take a road trip this summer, slightly lower than the 76% of respondents who planned to travel last summer. The average traveler is planning multiple journeys – the majority (32%) intend to take two road trips this season. Many Americans are venturing far, with 40% expecting to drive more than 5 hours to reach their destinations, demonstrating a commitment to travel despite economic pressures.

Setting the Stage for Major Travel Holidays

Among major travel holidays, Memorial Day leads with 52% of travelers planning road trips, followed by Independence Day at 42% and Labor Day at 35%. Planning styles are evenly split, with half of travelers having already booked accommodations and half maintaining flexibility – possibly to take advantage of last-minute deals or adjust plans based on cost.

Cost Considerations Shape Summer Travel

While inflation remains a concern for many households, 47% of respondents report that the cost of gas is not impacting their travel plans. However, cost has emerged as the No. 1 priority for travelers this summer, ahead of factors like destination and accommodations. Most (54%) plan to pay for gas with a credit card, and many plan to use tools like GasBuddy and other digital savings tools, traveling up to 1 mile extra to save money on fuel.

“While we’re forecasting the lowest summer gas prices in years, economic jitters are slightly dampening optimism — but we still expect a robust travel season, with millions of Americans hitting the road, many for extended trips,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

Memorial Day Gas Price Forecast

For Memorial Day, the national average is projected to be $3.08 per gallon, down significantly from $3.58 on Memorial Day last year. This year’s relatively lower prices are influenced by lower crude oil costs amid an increase in oil production from OPEC+, the potential for a nuclear deal with Iran, and some economic uncertainty. As summer progresses and refinery maintenance concludes, the national average price of gasoline could fall below $3 per gallon at times this summer.

*Excluding 2020, heavily influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic and adjusting for inflation

XAU/USD Current price: $3,280.87

• Central banks keep citing US President Trump’s policies as a source of concern.
• The US Congress will discuss a bill on tax cuts, which will add to the country’s massive debt.
• XAU/USD pressures fresh one-week highs, aiming to extend its advance.

Gold surged during US trading hours on Tuesday, hitting a one-week high of $3,285.84 and trading nearby at the time of writing. Financial markets were cautiously optimistic throughout the first half of the day, but the mood soured after Wall Street’s opening, with US indexes trading in the red.

The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure amid renewed concerns about United States (US) President Donald Trump’s protectionism measures and the out-of-control government’s debt. Concerns arose ahead of Trump’s tax bill, which will be discussed in Congress today. The bill would add between $3 trillion and $5 trillion to the debt, according to nonpartisan analysts, Reuters reported.

The discussion takes place after Moody Ratings downgraded the government’s credit rating, citing concerns over the nation’s growing $36.2 trillion debt pile. Trump even said that the alternative to not passing the tax bill is massive tax hikes, which adds to the dismal mood.

Meanwhile, trade talks between the US and major counterparts continue. The focus is now on negotiations with Japan, with mounting tensions between the two countries amid US demands. There are no fresh headlines on US-China talks, which also weigh the sentiment lower.

Data-wise, there’s little in the macroeconomic calendar in the US side, but there worth noting that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) early on Tuesday, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also delivered an interest rate cut, lowering the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.85% from 4.1%. RBA officials stated the escalation of the global trade conflict was a key downside risk to the economy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it reached resistance at around a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,287.80, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their firmly bullish slopes far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, gain upward traction but remain around their midlines. The bright metal would need to extend its rally beyond the $3,300 threshold to confirm a sustained leg higher.

The near-term picture is bullish, yet could. The 4-hour chart shows the pair broke above its 200 SMA, while the 20 SMA gains upward traction below the longer one. At the same time, the pair is battling a mildly bearish 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators advanced well above their midlines, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilized around 60, hinting at a consolidative stage before a new leg north.

Support levels: 3,265.40 3,252.10 3,235.70

Resistance levels: 3,287.60 3,300.00 3,312.90