A weaker US dollar, which fell to a four-month low, made gold more attractive to foreign buyers. The greenback’s decline was driven by a weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) report and growing speculation about Fed rate cuts.
China continued its gold-buying spree for a fourth consecutive month in February, signaling ongoing central bank demand for the metal. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty provided further safe-haven support.
US Jobs Data and Fed Signals Shape Gold’s Outlook
The US labor market showed signs of cooling, with February’s NFP data revealing 151,000 jobs added, below the forecasted 160,000. This report reinforced market expectations that the Fed could begin rate cuts by June, with futures pricing in about 78 basis points of easing this year.
However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone, stating that the central bank needs “greater clarity” before making any moves on interest rates. Inflation concerns remain a key issue, with upcoming CPI data expected to provide fresh insight into whether price pressures are cooling.
Tariff Uncertainty and Economic Sentiment in Focus
Trade tensions continue to be a major factor influencing gold. The US recently imposed fresh 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with increased duties on Chinese goods. A temporary exemption on auto tariffs for certain manufacturers has added complexity, leaving markets uncertain about the long-term trade policy outlook.
Additionally, European gas storage is at 37% capacity, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 49%, reinforcing global supply concerns. However, U.S. traders remain focused on domestic fundamentals, where inventory tightness continues to underpin long-term price strength.
Could Colder Weather Prevent a Larger Sell-Off?
The latest NOAA forecast for March 17-21 introduced a more bullish factor late last week. The outlook calls for cooler temperatures along the West Coast, while storm systems could help moderate warmth on the East Coast. This shift in expectations sparked short-covering, helping prices recover from early-week losses.
However, the overall forecast remains mixed. While colder systems persist in the northern U.S., milder conditions across the South and East, with highs in the 50s-80s, could limit heating demand. If temperatures trend warmer in subsequent forecasts, natural gas could face renewed selling pressure.
Could Tariffs and LNG Exports Tighten the Market?
Trade policy developments are adding another layer of uncertainty. U.S. tariffs of 10% on Canadian natural gas imports took effect last week, which could put upward pressure on domestic prices as importers adjust. Canada has hinted at retaliatory measures, including a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the U.S., potentially increasing demand for gas-fired power generation.
Meanwhile, LNG exports remain near record highs, with flows to U.S. terminals holding at 15.2 Bcf/d. Additionally, President Trump’s decision to lift restrictions on new LNG export projects could lead to further structural demand growth. The upcoming decision on the Commonwealth LNG facility in Louisiana will be a key development to watch.
Another leg down in gold has been anticipated given last week’s bearish reversal following a new record high of $2,956. The week ended with a weekly bearish engulfing pattern as gold fell below support of the prior two weeks and it ended the week in a bearish position, in the lower third of the week’s trading range. Furthermore, a breakdown of a rising trendline and 20-Day MA triggered, thereby further confirming weakness. There has been only one leg down from the $2,956 record high today and a minimum of two legs down is common for a bearish retracement.
Successful Test of Resistance
This week’s advance tested prior support of the trendline as resistance, and resistance was seen around the line. The 20-Day line is the other trend indicator that was tested as resistance, but it failed as resistance because gold rose above the 20-Day MA and traded above it for four days. Nonetheless, taken together, gold may have completed its counter trend rally to test prior support as resistance. Once that happens, the chance for a bearish continuation improves.
Inside Week Provides Key Price Levels
An inside week is established for this week, leaving two key price levels to be considered. The low for the week was $2,855 and the high is $2,930. A decisive move through either price level may determine the next direction. Although the technical evidence is more on the bearish side, a sustained rally above this week’s high would require a realignment of views and would open the possibility of a bullish continuation of the trend in the near term. On the downside, the next lower target for gold if the recent swing low at $2,833 fails to retain support, is a range around $2,813 to $2,810, consisting of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the initial target for a falling ABCD pattern, respectively.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver Consolidates as Rate Cut Expectations Build
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.55, slightly above its session low of $32.43. The metal is holding firm, with support coming from a softer U.S. dollar and increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will ease policy in the months ahead. However, concerns over global trade and restrained investor activity are limiting major price swings.
The U.S. dollar continues to drift lower as markets price in multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Economic data points to slowing momentum, reinforcing expectations of policy adjustments that could favor non-yielding assets like gold and silver.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 221,000 last week, lower than expected. However, this had little impact on the dollar or gold, as attention remains on the upcoming NFP report. Forecasts suggest job gains of 160,000 in February, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4%.
Fed Policy and Economic Signals Shape Gold’s Path
Federal Reserve officials have acknowledged economic risks, reinforcing expectations of eventual rate cuts. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic pointed to slowing growth as a concern, suggesting policy adjustments may be warranted. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated he does not support a rate cut in March but did not rule out easing later in the year if inflation declines further.
Market sentiment is also adjusting to shifts in trade policy. Trump’s temporary exemption of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods has introduced new variables for businesses and investors, influencing broader market positioning.
China is preparing additional stimulus measures. Finance Minister Lan Foan has signaled the government’s willingness to support economic growth if needed, while People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng has suggested interest rate and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) reductions could be considered.
Until today, a bullish continuation was possible as resistance around the top channel line continued to be tested over the past couple of days and resistance was retained. The subsequent bearish decline today, however, makes a deeper pullback more likely prior to a new breakout attempt. But that will also depend on what happens next.
Key Trend Support at 20-Day MA
The obvious potential trend support area is represented by the 20-Day MA, now at $3.97. Notice that it aligns with an internal uptrend line. Together, they represent a more significant possible dynamic support area. A pullback prior to another bullish breakout attempt would be normal and healthy for the developing bull trend.
Recent bullish indications that support an eventual move higher, include a sharp bounce off support on Monday defined by the convergence of the 50% retracement, the 20-Day MA, and the 50-Day MA. Moreover, the 20-Day line crossed above the 50-Day line, and natural gas reached a new trend high. This behavior shows strong underlying demand. However, if there is a decline below the 20-Day MA and natural gas stays below it or keeps falling, the near-term outlook and a chance for a new trend high begins to fade.
Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern Supports Further Upside
This week will end with a bullish engulfing pattern that is also a key reversal week. Where the price of natural gas ends the week may provide additional insight. A weekly closing price above last week’s high of $4.19 would confirm the weekly breakout, but a close above the three-week high and prior trend high at $4.48, would show greater strength. Despite the potential for a deeper bearish decline, that would begin to change on a sharp rise above today’s high at $4.43. This could be of particular interest if the day ends with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
⚠️Gold prices rise as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid escalating trade tensions between the United States (US), Canada, Mexico, and China, with new tariffs taking effect on Tuesday. As a result, the USD’s decline supports the precious metal. XAU/USD is currently trading at $2,918, up 0.62%.
Silver price didn’t show any strong move since morning, to continue fluctuating around 32.60$, thus, no change to the expected bullish trend for today, which depends on the price stability above 32.25$, reminding you that our targets begin at 32.86$ and extend to 33.35$ after breaching the previous level.
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Silver price struggles around $32.70 ahead of the US NFP data for February.
The US employment data will influence market speculation for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
The Silver price remains supported by global trade war tensions.
Silver price (XAG/USD) faces selling pressure near $32.70 in European trading hours on Friday. The white metal trades cautiously ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
The US NFP data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Upbeat labor market data would boost market speculation that the Fed will keep interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for longer. On the contrary, soft numbers would weaken them.
Technically, a restrictive interest rate stance from the Fed bodes poorly for precious metals, such as Silver.
The US NFP report is expected to show that the employers hired 160K workers, higher than 143K recorded in January. The Unemployment Rate is seen steady at 4%. Investors will also focus on the Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth, which is estimated to have grown steadily by 4.1% year-on-year.
Ahead of the US NFP data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh four-month low near 103.60. 10-year US Treasury yields drops to near 4.27%.
Meanwhile, global trade war tensions continue to offer support to the Silver price. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump confirmed tariff exemptions on products compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) till April 2. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price strives to hold the key resistance of $32.40 plotted from the December 12 high. The asset trades above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.00, suggesting that the near-term trend is bullish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.
Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline from the August 8 low of $26.45 will act as key support for the Silver price around $30.00. While, the February 14 high of $33.40 will be the key barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The EURJPY pair approached the second target at 161.65, while the negative momentum that the major indicators started to provide by the MA55 that forms additional barrier at 160.90 and stochastic attempt to exit the overbought areas pushed the price to activate the correctional decline to settle near 159.50.
We expect to form some sideways trades to attempt to hold above the additional support at 158.85, while gathering the additional positive momentum will push the price to start forming bullish waves to target 160.20 soon, followed by attempting to confirm breaching the MA55 to ease the mission of recording new gains on the near-term and medium term basis.
The expected trading range for today is between 159.00 and 161.20
Copper price ended the last bullish rally by facing 4.8100$ resistance line, to form temporary negative rebound towards 4.7100$, while the main stability within the bullish channel and forming continuous additional support at 4.5400$ will increase the chances of activating the bullish track on the near-term basis.
We assure the importance of gathering the additional positive momentum to manage to surpass the current resistance and open the way to record additional gains that might extend towards 4.8800$ followed by reaching the bullish channel’s resistance line near 4.9600$.
The expected trading range for today is between 4.6500$ and 4.9100$
