Natural gas price continues to form bearish trading, reaching to the extra negative target near $3.310, to decelerate the attempts to resume the decline in the current trading, which forces it to form weak sideways trading in the current period.

Note that the continuation of forming a strong support at $3.340 level against the current trading, by the unionism of providing negative momentum by the main indicators, these factors will increase the sharpness on the bearish track, to keep waiting for providing negative close below $3.130 level, to confirm targeting new negative stations that might begin at $2.950 and $2.730. 

The expected trading range for today is between $3.000 and $3.230

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver price declined as optimism surrounding potential ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine dampened demand for safe-haven assets.
• President Trump announced that Ukraine and Russia are preparing to enter immediate ceasefire negotiations, possibly excluding US participation.
• Silver’s losses on Monday were partially offset by Moody’s decision to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its decline for the third consecutive session, trading near $32.20 per troy ounce during Tuesday’s Asian session. The metal’s weakness comes as optimism over a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine reduces demand for safe-haven assets.

Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump stated on Monday that following a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine and Russia are set to begin immediate ceasefire negotiations, potentially without US involvement. This development has pressured precious metals, including Silver, which typically benefit from geopolitical uncertainty.

Despite the downtrend, Silver’s losses on Monday were somewhat cushioned after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from “Aaa” to “Aa1” last Friday, citing rising debt levels and interest burdens significantly higher than those of similarly rated peers. This move follows similar downgrades by Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011.

Recent US economic data—including softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings—indicate cooling inflation, bolstering expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Additionally, disappointing US Retail Sales figures have heightened concerns about sustained economic weakness, which could lend support to non-yielding assets like Silver.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now anticipate two Fed rate cuts this year, likely beginning in September. Investors will closely monitor upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials for further insight into the central bank’s policy direction and the broader economic outlook.

·       Gold price keeps range play intact below $3,250 early Tuesday.

·       The US Dollar draws support from US trade deals optimism but upside appears limited.   

·       Gold price remains stuck between 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA amid bearish RSI.

Gold price has returned to red early Tuesday, having failed to take out the $3,250 barrier once again. The downtick in Gold price could be linked to a tepid US Dollar (USD) recovery as traders await US trade talks and Fedspeak for a fresh directional impetus.

Gold price looks to US trade talks and Fedspeak

The USD is looking to stabilize following the previous decline, led by the revival of the ‘Sell America’ theme, which triggered a big sell-off in the US assets across the financial markets. Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating on Friday by one notch from its pristine “Aaa” rating to “Aa1”, withering the ‘Brand USA’.

Investors remained wary about the long-term fiscal picture for the United States (US). “Analysts say Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill would add $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the nation’s $36.2 trillion in debt over the next decade,” per Reuters.

In response, risk-off flows dominated on Monday and lifted the traditional safe-haven Gold price.

In Tuesday’s trading so far, the Greenback is holding the overnight bounce on renewed optimism over the potential US trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan.

South Korea and the US will meet over a second round of technical discussions on Tuesday in Washington over the latter’s reciprocal tariff measures. The talks will span over three days. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that India is discussing the US trade deal structured in three tranches, with an interim agreement likely before July.

Increased hopes of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also act as a headwind to the traditional store of value, Gold. US President Donald Trump spoke with President Vladimir Putin on Monday and said Russia and Ukraine would immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire, but the Kremlin said reaching an agreement would take time, while Trump indicated he was not ready to join Europe with fresh sanctions to pressure Moscow.

However, the Greenback stalled its recovery, tracking the sharp decline in the Japanese Yen (JPY) after Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato hinted at holding FX talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week.

This has helped the bright metal limit its downside. Looking ahead, it remains to be seen if Gold price holds firm to bearish pressures. Speeches from a bunch of Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and trade talks will continue to drive the USD’s performance and the Gold price action, in the absence of high-impact US data releases.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, Gold price remains confined in a range, with the upside capped by the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,289 while buyers continue to find support at the 50-day SMA at $3,175.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits beneath the midline, near 47.50, maintaining the downside risks.

So long as the price stays above the throwback support of the 50-day SMA, a brief recovery toward the 21-day SMA remains in the offing.

However, Gold buyers need to take out the immediate resistance at the $3,250 psychological level to march toward the 21-day SMA.

The next topside target is at the falling trendline resistance at $3,386.

On the downside, if sellers manage to crack the 50-day SMA on a daily closing basis, a fresh sell-off could be fuelled toward the $3,100 mark.

The April 10 low of $3,072 would then come to the rescue of buyers.

Platinum price neediness to the negative momentum led to form some of the bullish waves by its stability above $983.00, approaching from the resistance at $1005.00, note that the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will confirm delaying the negative attack, to increase the chances of the trading rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level, which forms the dividing line between confirming the main trend in the upcoming trading.

Therefore, we expect the continuation of the price’s fluctuation within tight range, to keep waiting for its decline below $983.00, which allows it activate the negative attack and reach towards the negative stations near $966.00 and $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $983.00 and $1010.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated 

Platinum price neediness to the negative momentum led to form some of the bullish waves by its stability above $983.00, approaching from the resistance at $1005.00, note that the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will confirm delaying the negative attack, to increase the chances of the trading rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level, which forms the dividing line between confirming the main trend in the upcoming trading.

Therefore, we expect the continuation of the price’s fluctuation within tight range, to keep waiting for its decline below $983.00, which allows it activate the negative attack and reach towards the negative stations near $966.00 and $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $983.00 and $1010.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated 

• Gold price drifts lower to near $3,230 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
• The modest US Dollar recovery weighs on the yellow metal.
• Moody’s announced its downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1, which might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,230 during the early Asian session on Tuesday, pressured by a modest US Dollar (USD) rebound. However, the concerns over the US economic health after Moody’s downgrades the US national credit rating might cap its downside. 

The Greenback recovers on Tuesday, capping the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price. Nonetheless, the economic uncertainties could boost the safe-haven flows. Moody’s cut the US rating to “Aa1” from “Aaa” on Friday, citing rising debt and interest “that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns”. The economic uncertainties provide some support to the safe asset like Gold. 

“Overall, over the next few months, I think gold is a good safe bet considering the downgrade on the United States. It’s still to me a buy-and-hold market,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Financial markets were also shaken when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that US President Donald Trump would slap tariffs at the rate he threatened on April 2 if trade partners do not engage in “good faith.”

Next Lower Target at $3.07

Since the market seemed to recognize the 61.8% retracement zone, the next lower Fibonacci level at $3.07 seems destined to be tested as support before the bearish correction completes. And given the degree of bearish momentum exhibited in the wide range red candle for the day, the next uptrend line may also be tested as support before the bearish correction completes.

Beware of Another Step in Pattern Evolution

The scenario unfolding fits with the larger pattern discussed earlier. A breakdown from a head and shoulders top triggered on April 7 and it led to a sharp decline. Eventually support was found at what is now a swing low of $2.86. That support area was marked by the light blue anchored volume weighted average price line (AVWAP) from the 2024 trend lows. In other words, a potentially significant price level given that it incorporates the full uptrend.

So far, that has been the case. Given its potentially long-term significance, it would be the maximum estimated low for the current decline. The more likely scenario seems to be that support is found at or above the uptrend line and that leads to a bullish reversal. A higher swing low would then be established.

200-Day Moving Average Plays a Role

Not mentioned yet is the 200-Day MA. It is now at $3.19, and it failed to hold as support during Monday’s decline. That is fine if natural gas doesn’t stay below the 200-Day line for long. Notice that the 200-Day MA was breached during the prior drop that triggered the head and shoulders top pattern. The subsequent recovery quickly rallied above the 200-Day MA, and the bulls stayed in the chart until the recent trend high at $3.84.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Copper price began forming a negative move, activating with the negativity of the main indicators, to settle near the extra support at $4.5000, facing negative pressures will increase the chances for breaking the current support, to open the way towards targeting extra negative stations, which might begin at $4.4500 reaching $4.3100.

The failure to break the current support might push the price to form mixed trading, and there is a new chance for targeting 50%Fibonacci correction level near $4.6600.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.4500 and $4.5600

Trend forecast: Bearish

XAU/USD Current price: $3,232.75

• Moody downgraded the US’s government’s credit rating, hitting the US Dollar.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to cut interest rates early on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD retreated from near $3,250, holding on to modest intraday gains.

Gold price is up on Monday, with the bright metal peaking at $3,249.84 during Asian trading hours amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. The Greenback fell throughout the first half of the day amid discouraging United States (US) news. Moody’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to concerns about the country´s growing debt.

Asian shares tumbled, further weighed by mixed Chinese data. April Retail Sales were up 5.1% YoY in April, missing expectations, while Industrial Production in the same period was up 6.1%, better than the 5.5% anticipated, although below the previous 7.7%

The USD found some near-term demand after Wall Street’s opening, as US indexes partially shrugged off the downbeat mood and trade mixed. As a result, the XAU/USD pair retreated towards the current $3,230 price zone.

Several US Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers hit the wires at the beginning of the week, but their remarks failed to impress, holding on to their cautiously optimistic stance, still concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its decision on monetary policy in the upcoming Asian session. The RBA is widely anticipated to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% from the current 4.1%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it trades at the upper end of Friday’s range, with little bullish impulse. Technical indicators turned marginally higher, but remain within negative levels, while a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands well above the current level, providing resistance at around $3,293. The 100 and 200 SMAs keep advancing far below the current level, suggesting sellers are out of the picture at the time being.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral. The pair trades between directionless moving averages, with a flat 20 SMA providing intraday support at $3,204.70. At the same time, the Momentum indicator turned lower while holding above its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at around 51.

Support levels: 3,215.90 3,204.70 3,187.10

Resistance levels: 3,250.00 3,265.80 3,288.70

In a shocking move that has defused a brutal trade war and boosted international markets, the United States and China decided on May 12, to significantly reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for the first 90 days.

This naturally sparked a continued downward spiral in gold and prices touched $3121 for XAUUSD. 

This week, gold is looking to retrace and take out the late sellers in the market. Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast of May 19th to May 23rd, 2025.

Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news

In the previous week’s forecast we gave the selling level of gold in 1h, from where gold dumped 1420 points. 

We also shared a major buying level of gold in the weekly FVG, from which gold is up 827 points, at the time of writing.

Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.

Key economic events of this week

Not many significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week, but it is still expected to impact XAUUSD. 

May 22nd, Thursday: Flash Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) and Flash Services PMI

Two early measures of economic health are the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI.  They have the following effects on the gold vs. US dollar (XAU/USD) pair:

• Strong PMIs (Manufacturing + Services): Show economic expansion, which boosts the US currency and usually results in lower gold prices (a decline in XAU/USD).

• Weak PMIs: Indicate a slowdown in the economy, which devalues the US dollar and raises the price of gold (XAU/USD).

In summary, while negative PMI data can push gold prices higher, positive data tends to push them lower.

Gold HTF Overview

Gold has already tested its weekly FVG and closed above it, which is a bullish sign for gold. The next targets according to the weekly timeframe can be $3260 and $3328.86 which signify the untested lows and highs of the previous weekly candles.

Gold Forecast for May 19th to May 23rd

Gold is showing bullish momentum in all lower time frames which makes buying an ideal position to enter and hold. 

On the 1 hour timeframe the strongest buying level is coming up at the bullish order block of $3129.85-3152.56.

On the 4h timeframe the buying opportunity is much lower around $3098-$3038. This is also the the last daily FVG of this entire bullish rally for which the low is $2956 which can be your invalidation point for buys and flipping towards sells on retracement, but that is far away for now.

In the 4 hour timeframe selling can be expected from the $3284-3325 levels, due to FVG, and structure area of the 4h timeframe.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

Below, we’ll take a look at support and resistance levels for XAUUSD this week.

Support Levels 

• $3098-$3038  – 4h support, daily FVG 
• $3129.85-3152.56 – 1h bullish order block

Resistance Levels 

• $3284-3325 levels – 4h FVG and structure level

To conclude, the safe strategy in gold is to look for sells in the lower time frame levels and look for buying in the higher time frame levels. You can mark these levels on your chart for easier trading guidance when you trade.