XAU/USD Current price: $2,909.49

• US President Donald Trump’s trade war spurred global concens, stocks sell-off.
• Resurgent demand for safety sent Gold prices to fresh one-week highs.
• XAU/USD retreats from fresh weekly highs, retains its positive bias.

Spot Gold reconquered the $2,900 threshold early on Tuesday, following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement. Levies on Canada and Mexico of 25% came into effect alongside an additional 10% on imports coming from China.

Canada responded with reciprocal tariffs, China with 15% levies on agricultural products, while Mexico announced tariffs and non-tariffs counter-measures will come next Sunday.  As a result, risk aversion fueled demand for the bright metal and sent the US Dollar (USD)  into a selling spiral throughout the first half of the day, as markets fear the unleashed trade war would affect US economic growth and boost inflationary pressures.

The USD recovered some ground after Wall Street’s opening, finally finding near-term demand of panic. US indexes, in the meantime, followed their overseas counterparts and are in sell-off mode, with the three major indexes down roughly 2% each.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD, in the meantime, retains the $2,900 mark but retreated from an intraday peak of $2,927.91. The daily chart shows the pair is up for a second consecutive day, with another leg north still in doubt. XAU/USD is currently battling to overcome a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 100 and 200 SMAs recovered their upward slopes far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, advance with moderated strength and within neutral levels, not enough to confirm a higher high.

The near-term picture shows Gold corrected overbought conditions. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD hovers around a flat 100 SMA while developing far above bullish 20 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated from their early peaks, maintaining their downward slopes, although well above their midlines.

Support levels: 2,894.25 2,876.90 2,858.70  

Resistance levels: 2,927.90 2,941.40 2,956.10

At 14:13 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.284, up $0.162 or +3.93%.

How Are Weather and Storage Deficits Impacting the Market?

Natural gas demand is expected to ease midweek as weather models have reduced heating degree days by 5–6. While the current pattern brings colder systems across the U.S., milder breaks will limit overall demand. NatGasWeather projects only moderate demand early in the week before declining to low levels midweek.

On the supply side, storage levels are raising concerns. The latest EIA report shows a significant 261 Bcf withdrawal, bringing total working gas to 1,840 Bcf—561 Bcf below last year and 238 Bcf under the five-year average. The sharp storage deficit highlights the challenge of rebuilding stocks heading into the summer injection season, particularly with LNG exports drawing record volumes of supply.

Can LNG Exports and Production Trends Sustain the Rally?

LNG exports continue to play a major role in tightening U.S. supply. With export facilities running at full capacity, domestic inventories are being depleted at a faster pace. The market’s ability to replenish storage will depend on production levels, which have been rising but remain constrained by producer discipline.

A prolonged period of strong LNG demand and restrained domestic production could leave the market exposed to price spikes if summer cooling demand intensifies. European gas prices have also surged, reinforcing the bullish case for U.S. exports.

What’s the Market Outlook?

With natural gas futures reclaiming key levels and storage deficits widening, the market is set up for further upside. A break above $4.476 could trigger fresh buying, pushing prices toward $4.714–$4.805. However, traders should monitor weather trends and production updates closely, as a shift to milder forecasts or stronger output could limit the rally’s momentum.

Platinum price started to get the positive momentum, to start covering the recently suffered losses, noticing its fluctuation near the MA55 at 959.00$.

Note that succeeding to hold above 950.00$ will increase the chances of providing new bullish trades, to attempt to record additional gains by targeting 971.00$ and 983.00$ levels, while settling below 950.00$ again will force it to activate the negative attack, to suffer many losses by moving towards 935.00$ first,

The expected trading range for today is between 950.00$ and 971.00$

Trend forecast: Bullish

• XAG/USD reclaims $31.50, as tariff uncertainty lifts demand.
• Silver rebounds after dipping below 50-day SMA, now targeting $32.00.
• Trump confirms March 4 tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, fueling safe-haven demand.
• A daily close above $31.50 could pave the way for a retest of $33.20.

Silver price recovers, climbs above the $31.50 mark on Monday as the Greenback depreciates sharply across the board. Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China would begin on March 4, according to US President Donald Trump in a press conference held at the Oval Office. This and the drop in US Treasury bond yields keep XAG/USD trading at $31.67, gaining over 1.76%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price rebound after dipping below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $30.93, before reclaiming $31.00. On its way to the current spot price, XAG/USD climbed past the 100-day SMA at $31.21, exacerbating Silver’s advance past the $31.50 area.

If XAG/USD closes on a daily basis above the latter, it would be poised to challenge key resistance levels like the $32.00 mark, and the February 20 peak at $33.20.

Conversely, if XAG/USD drops below $31.50, the immediate support would be the 50-day SMA, followed by the 200-day SMA at $30.43.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Adobe’s stock price (ADBE) edged higher in the intraday levels while trying to recoup some recent losses, as it vented off oversold saturation in the RSI, while still suffering negative from trading below the 50-day SMA, amid the dominance of the main downward trend in the medium term, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line. 

Therefore we expect the stock to return lower, targeting the support of $403.75, provided the resistance of $465.70 holds on.

Trend forecast for today: likely Bearish 

The GBPCAD price reacted to the positive factors represented by leaning within the bullish channel in addition to the continuous positive momentum coming by the major indicators, to notice forming new bullish rally recently and surpass 1.8235 recorded high to start recording new gains by reaching 1.8445.

Note that stochastic continuous fluctuation within the overbought areas might increase the chances of gaining the required additional positive momentum to target more positive stations, to expect targeting 1.8470 as a first additional station, followed by reaching the bullish channel’s resistance line at 1.8600.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.8340 and 1.8470

Trend forecast: Bullish

No news for copper price, to continue providing slow sideways trades by settling near 4.5400$, affected by the contradiction between the major indicators until this moment, reminding you that the frequent stability below 4.6800$ barrier reinforces the chances of resuming the negative correction that might target 4.3900$ level soon, followed by reaching the minor bullish channels’ support line at 4.3200$.

The expected trading range for today is between 4.3900$ and 4.5600$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Brent oil price traded with strong negativity yesterday to surpass our first target at 72.70$ and reach the thresholds of the second waited target at 71.25$, and we believe that the way is open to continue the decline on the intraday and short-term basis, as we suggest breaking the last level to open the way to continue the bearish trend in the upcoming period.

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• Gold price consolidates the previous rebound near $2,900 level early Tuesday.
• US economic growth woes outweigh global tariff war fears, weighing on the US Dollar, and US Treasury yields.
• Gold price battles 21-day SMA at $2,900 while the daily RSI still holds above the midline.

Gold price is treading water below $2,900 early Tuesday, consolidating the recent upswing before the next push higher.  

Gold price stays supported by trade war fears

Markets remain risk-averse as a global tariff war seems inevitable, with US President Donald Trump affirming 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico effective on Tuesday while he already signed the order to raise China tariffs to 20%.

In response, China’s Commerce Ministry and the Canadian prime minister’s office confirmed retaliatory tariffs on the US, triggering a tit-for-tat situation, which could translate into a full-fledged trade war.

Additionally, risks of the US economy tipping into recession have heightened amid increased expectations of Trump’s tariffs-led higher inflationary pressures and falling investors’ confidence. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker now is at -2.8%, having reported a 5% collapse in two business days. Meanwhile, US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 in February, down from 50.9, missing expectations of 50.8. This was due to a sharp drop in new orders, which plunged from 55.1 to 48.6.

US recession fears fuelled a tech sell-off on Wall Street on Monday, prompting investors to run for cover in the traditional safe-haven Gold price as the US Dollar (USD) was sold off into the gloomy US economic outlook. US Treasury bond yields tumbled to the lowest level in five months, allowing Gold price to rebound toward the $2,900 threshold.

However, it remains to be seen if Gold price can regain that level as the USD could find fresh haven demand should risk aversion intensify in the sessions ahead. That said, geopolitical tensions will continue to play their part, cushioning any downside in the bright metal.

CNN News reported on Monday that US President Trump ordered military aid to Ukraine to be paused after his Friday Oval Office argument with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This put the US at crossfires with his European allies like Britain and France, who made clear their support for Zelensky at a summit in London on Sunday.

On Sunday, European leaders agreed to draft a peace plan on the Ukraine conflict to present to Washington.

Markets also remain wary as attention turns to the US employment data due later this week, which could significantly impact the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate-cut outlook, influencing the value of the USD and the Gold price action in the near term.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold price has stalled its latest move higher at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2,900.

The recovery will likely gain traction only on acceptance above that level on a daily candlestick closing basis.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned slightly lower but holds well above the 50 level, suggesting that the upside bias remains intact.

The February 26 high of $2,930 will be on their radars if the 21-day SMA at $2,900 is taken out sustainably.

The next topside barrier is seen at an all-time high of $2,956.

If sellers refuse to step aside, the immediate support is seen at the $2,850 psychological barrier, below which the $2,835 demand area will be retested.

Additional declines will challenge the $2,800 round level.

Strong Support Leads to Rising Prices

Strong support was seen from the day’s low of $3.74. It is a price area discussed over the past week or so as being potentially a significant support zone since it marks an area of confluence. The 20-MA is at $3.76, there is a 50% retracement level at $3.73, and the 50-Day MA line is at $3.73. Given the bullish reaction, it looks clear that the price zone was recognized. Therefore, a bearish retracement might have completed today, opening the way for a continuation towards resistance at recent highs and possibly new trend highs.

Bearish Retracement Looks Complete

The next sign of strength will be on a rally above the five-day high and prior interim swing high at $4.19. That is also a weekly high from last week. There is then a potential resistance zone from the January high at $4.37 to the February high at $4.48. It is interesting to note that the recent pullback took a form like a falling bullish wedge. A bull breakout triggered today.

This puts natural gas in a bullish position to possibly reach new trend highs. The next higher target is a 50% retracement of a previous interim decline at $4.56. Note the resistance was seen around a top trend channel line at each of the recent swing highs. Nonetheless, depending on how prices rise, natural gas could hit the 50% retracement target and stay below potential resistance around the top trendline.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.