Strong Support Leads to Rising Prices

Strong support was seen from the day’s low of $3.74. It is a price area discussed over the past week or so as being potentially a significant support zone since it marks an area of confluence. The 20-MA is at $3.76, there is a 50% retracement level at $3.73, and the 50-Day MA line is at $3.73. Given the bullish reaction, it looks clear that the price zone was recognized. Therefore, a bearish retracement might have completed today, opening the way for a continuation towards resistance at recent highs and possibly new trend highs.

Bearish Retracement Looks Complete

The next sign of strength will be on a rally above the five-day high and prior interim swing high at $4.19. That is also a weekly high from last week. There is then a potential resistance zone from the January high at $4.37 to the February high at $4.48. It is interesting to note that the recent pullback took a form like a falling bullish wedge. A bull breakout triggered today.

This puts natural gas in a bullish position to possibly reach new trend highs. The next higher target is a 50% retracement of a previous interim decline at $4.56. Note the resistance was seen around a top trend channel line at each of the recent swing highs. Nonetheless, depending on how prices rise, natural gas could hit the 50% retracement target and stay below potential resistance around the top trendline.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• XAG/USD reclaims $31.50, as tariff uncertainty lifts demand.
• Silver rebounds after dipping below 50-day SMA, now targeting $32.00.
• Trump confirms March 4 tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, fueling safe-haven demand.
• A daily close above $31.50 could pave the way for a retest of $33.20.

Silver price recovers, climbs above the $31.50 mark on Monday as the Greenback depreciates sharply across the board. Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China would begin on March 4, according to US President Donald Trump in a press conference held at the Oval Office. This and the drop in US Treasury bond yields keep XAG/USD trading at $31.67, gaining over 1.76%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price rebound after dipping below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $30.93, before reclaiming $31.00. On its way to the current spot price, XAG/USD climbed past the 100-day SMA at $31.21, exacerbating Silver’s advance past the $31.50 area.

If XAG/USD closes on a daily basis above the latter, it would be poised to challenge key resistance levels like the $32.00 mark, and the February 20 peak at $33.20.

Conversely, if XAG/USD drops below $31.50, the immediate support would be the 50-day SMA, followed by the 200-day SMA at $30.43.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

XAU/USD Current price: $2,888.80

• Tepid United States macroeconomic data undermined demand for the US Dollar.
• Geopolitical tensions and looming tariffs boosting the bright metal.
• XAU/USD extends its recovery, but another leg north not yet confirmed.

Spot Gold found an interim bottom at $2,832.56 on Friday, bouncing from the level ahead of the weekly close and extending its recovery on Monday. The XAU/USD pair trades around $2,885, up on broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. Financial markets kick-stated the week in optimistic mode, helped by macroeconomic data released throughout the first half of the day. The bright metal, in the meantime, found support on geopolitical woes.

On the one hand, Chinese NBS Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were better than anticipated in February, with index output up to 50.2 from 49.1 in January, while the non-manufacturing index rose to 50.4 from 50.2. Additionally, S&P Global released the final estimates of the February Manufacturing PMI for major economies, upwardly revising most of them.

On the other hand, tensions between the United States (US) and Ukraine persist after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy abruptly left a meeting with US President Donald Trump on Friday. As a result, Eastern European nations aligned beyond Ukraine on fears the US will retrieve its support.

The USD extended its slide after the US reported that the official ISM Manufacturing PMI  fell to 50.3 in February from 50.9 in January, also missing expectations of 50.5. The bright metal, in the meantime, was underpinned by headlines indicating that US President Donald Trump is meeting with his aides to discuss canceling military aid to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, US tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on China are due to come into effect on Tuesday. Trump would decide on this matter later in the day.  US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said Canada and Mexico have done a “good job” on the border, while adding they still need to tackle the fentanyl issue.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows the ongoing recovery is not enough to anticipate a recovery towards record highs. The pair is trading well above bullish 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), yet the 20 SMA provides dynamic resistance at around $2,899.50. Technical indicators, in the meantime, turned higher but hover around their midlines with uneven strength, overall remaining neutral.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the upside, although additional confirmations are required. Technical indicators aim firmly higher, recovering from oversold readings yet currently battling their midlines. The same chart shows buyers appeared around a bullish 200 SMA, while a flat 100 SMA provides resistance at around $2,910.

Support levels: 2,876.90 2,858.70  2,845.40

Resistance levels: 2,894.80 2,907.60 2,925.60

At 14:35 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.899, up $0.065 or +1.70%.

Will Warmer Weather Keep Prices Under Pressure?

Weather forecasts remain a key bearish factor. Maxar Technologies projects above-normal temperatures from March 10-14 across the Rockies to the Atlantic, limiting heating demand. This follows an earlier February rally driven by storage tightness, but with winter demand winding down, concerns over consumption are resurfacing.

Lower-48 gas demand fell to 80.2 Bcf/d last Friday, marking a 10.3% year-over-year decline. Without a late-season cold snap, traders may struggle to find strong bullish catalysts. Despite last week’s 261 Bcf storage draw—above the five-year average—current trends indicate weaker consumption, keeping pressure on prices.

How Are Supply and LNG Exports Influencing the Market?

Production remains robust, with Lower-48 dry gas output at 107.8 Bcf/d, up 2.8% year-over-year. Meanwhile, LNG exports provide some support, with flows to U.S. terminals rising to 15.6 Bcf/d, a 2.1% weekly increase.

A potential long-term bullish factor emerged as the Trump administration lifted restrictions on new LNG export projects. Bloomberg reported that a decision on the Commonwealth LNG facility in Louisiana is approaching, which could eventually boost U.S. natural gas demand. However, in the short term, storage and weather are dictating price action.

Market Forecast: Further Downside Risk Looms

• Silver price gains sharply as a decline in US Personal Spending has prompted Fed dovish bets.
• This week, investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data for February.
• US President Trump is set to impose tariffs on his North American peers and China on March 4.

Silver price (XAG/USD) surges an almost 1% to near $31.50 in European trading hours on Monday. The white metal strengthens as an increase in Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets has weighed on the US Dollar (USD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, resumes its downside after a three-day upside move and slumps to near 107.00.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 77% chance that the Fed will cut its borrowing rates in June, up from 63% a week ago. In the March and May policy meetings, the Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.

Traders have raised bets supporting the Fed to reduce its borrowing rates in June after the United States (US) Personal Spending data declined for the first time in January in two years.

For more cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, investors will focus on a slew of US economic data, notably on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), releasing this week.

Meanwhile, fears of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have also increased the demand for safe-haven Silver. On March 4, Trump is poised to impose tariffs on these countries for pouring drugs into the US economy.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price recovers to near $31.50 in Monday’s European session. However, the outlook of the Silver price remains bearish as it trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $31.80.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the bullish momentum has faded. However, the bullish bias remains intact.

Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline from the August 8 low of $26.45 will act as key support for the Silver price around $30.00. While, the February 14 high of $33.40 will be the key barrier.

Silver daily chart

Silver price fluctuates within sideways track since morning, and attempts to provide positive trades to head towards potential test to the key resistance 31.63$, noticing that stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly.

To get our more detailed analysis and 100% accurate signals provided by Best Trading Signal, subscribe to Economies.com VIP Club through the link below!

The EURJPY pair lost its negative momentum after touching 154.78 level, to form correctional bullish rebound and notice testing the additional barrier at 157.35 and settling below it.

The frequent stability below this barrier allows us to wait to gather the additional negative momentum to ease the mission of forming strong negative waves and target 155.90 followed by 155.20 levels soon, while jumping above the barrier will reinforce the chances of resuming the positive correction to expect rallying towards 158.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 155.90 and 157.35

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price provided some additional negative trades by touching 4.4580$ level followed by forming sideways fluctuation due to the continuous contradiction between the major indicators, to notice settling near the broken additional support line now at 4.5400$.

We remind you that the frequent stability below the additional barrier 4.6800$ and stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum will increase the chances of activating the bearish track, to keep waiting to reach the next target at 4.3900$.

The expected trading range for today is between 4.3900$ and 4.5600$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Brent oil price provides new positive trades now, to test the key resistance 74.00$, which forms key cluster resistance area as appears on the chart, noticing that stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly to reach the overbought areas.

To get our more detailed analysis and 100% accurate signals provided by Best Trading Signal, subscribe to Economies.com VIP Club through the link below!

• Gold price edges higher to $2,870 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The uncertainty and global tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. 
• US PCE inflation for January came in with the expectation. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to around $2,870 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uncertainty and ongoing Russia and Ukraine conflicts continue to underpin the precious metal. Traders will keep an eye on the US February ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is due later on Monday. 

According to the state RIA news agency, an oil refinery in the Russian city of Ufa has caught fire. The regional branch of Russia’s emergency ministry reported that residents in nearby areas face no danger from the blaze. However, the cause of the fire is yet to be determined.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for being “disrespectful” and canceled the signing of a minerals deal that would have brought Ukraine closer to resolving its conflict with Russia. Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding Russia’s headlines. Any signs of escalating tensions could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

On the other hand, the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand might cap the upside for the yellow metal. US inflation data came in line with expectations, suggesting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might adopt a cautious stance on further rate cuts. 

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbed 2.5% YoY in January, compared to 2.6% in December, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.6% on a yearly basis in January, down from 2.9% in December. Both figures came in line with market expectations.