The AUDCAD price started to activate the previously waited negative track by crawling below 50% Fibonacci correction level at 0.9030 yesterday, surpassing the EMA50 to start targeting the negative stations by reaching 0.8970.
We notice stochastic attempt to crawl towards the oversold areas to increase the chances of gathering the negative momentum to ease the mission of targeting the target at 0.8940, while surpassing it will extend trades towards 0.8900 direct, to form the next main target for the current trades.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8940 and 0.9010
Platinum price resumed the negative attempts, surpassing the first target at 950.00$, confirming its preparation to provide more negative attempts on the near-term and medium-term basis.
Also, the EMA50 forms additional barrier now at 960.00$, and stochastic provides the negative momentum, to increase the chances of attacking 941.00$ level, while breaking it might extend losses towards 920.00$ on the near-term basis.
The expected trading range for today is between 941.00$ and 960.00$
Vietnam’s commodity markets are bracing for fluctuation as both coffee and pepper prices are forecasted for March 2, 2025. The latest updates indicate mixed trends, with coffee prices showing signs of instability and pepper prices experiencing a slight rebound.
According to the latest information from Giacaphe.com, as of March 1, 2025, the Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange have seen notable declines. Prices went down by $46 to $61 per ton, with May 2025 delivery prices settling at $5,330 per ton, and prices for subsequent deliveries also reflecting downward trends. Notably, the prices for July and September deliveries are recorded at $5,290 and $5,228 respectively. Conversely, the Arabica coffee market on New York experienced minor fluctuations, with prices peaking and dipping around 342.00 to 379.05 cents per pound, representing delicate balance amid broader market forces.
Meanwhile, the domestic coffee market has also seen price adjustments. Reports suggest coffee prices across the Central Highlands dropped slightly by 500 đồng/kg, resulting in average prices hovering around 130,000 đồng/kg. Specifically, prices are noted at 130,000 đồng/kg for Đắk Lắk, 128,000 đồng/kg for Lâm Đồng, and 130,000 đồng/kg for Gia Lai. This reflects market corrections following earlier price hikes.
Experts predict relative stability for March 2, with forecasts indicating prices are likely to maintain between 128,000 and 130,000 đồng/kg. A spokesperson from Giacaphe.com remarked, “Prices are expected to stabilize between 128,000 – 130,000 đồng/kg depending on the locality, with short-term decreases anticipated due to high supply pressures.” Overall, the potential of Robusta prices to decrease by about $100 to $150 per ton could loom over the market if demand does not rebound swiftly.
On the pepper front, price adjustments have been more favorable. Following previous declines, pepper prices have started to rebound, showing increases between 1,000 and 2,000 đồng/kg across various regions. The average purchase price for black pepper has reached around 158,000 đồng/kg, with notable rises reported from Đắk Nông and Bình Phước, where prices now stand at 159,000 and 158,000 đồng/kg respectively.
The Vietnam Pepper Association (VPSA) has indicated some challenges remain—specifically, delays due to adverse weather conditions impacting harvest schedules. “The import demand from the US, EU, and China remains subdued, partly due to depleted stockpiles from the previous harvest and delays of the new one,” noted the VPSA. This could influence future price dynamics as Vietnam approaches its harvest season.
Recent market activity, reflected through the Ministry of Industry and Trade analyses, points to rising export prices, providing hope for local producers and signaling potentially favorable market conditions amid global fluctuations. Export prices for Vietnamese black pepper are pegged at approximately 6,900 USD/ton, with white pepper accumulating prices around 9,900 USD/ton.
The global market dynamics remain volatile. Reports from the International Pepper Community (IPC) highlight contrasting performance among exporting nations. For example, Indonesia’s prices have seen declines; black pepper is quoted at 7,235 USD/ton, reflecting losses of up to $63 per ton, contrasting the unexpected increases from Malaysia, where prices surged by $200 per ton.
Forecasts suggest the pepper market will likely stabilize around these higher prices, with strategic moves on inventory management from local exporters to mitigate risks from overarching global trends expected to yield different impacts on the domestic market.
Looking forward, it is clear both coffee and pepper markets must navigate upcoming challenges tied to both climatic factors and global economic trends. With input from analysts and traders, farmers are advised to prepare for potential volatility, maintaining vigilance over price shifts as the year progresses. Both sectors, especially as the coffee harvest commences, could see significant impacts from foreign import interests, offering glimpse trajectories moving through 2025.
Gold price settles at the waited target at 2868.80$, which represents 23.6% Fibonacci correction level for the rise from 2583.75$ to 2956.90$, and as we mentioned in our last technical update, breaking this level will push the price to achieve more bearish correction on the intraday and short-term basis.
XAG/USD slips to $31.13, with downside risks growing
Silver fails to hold above $33.00, triggering consolidation and selling pressure.
Price tests 100-day SMA at $31.20; next key support at 50-day SMA of $30.89.
Break below $30.89 could expose 200-day SMA at $30.47 and January low of $29.70.
Silver ended the week on a lower note, down almost 4%, as traders booked profits amid US recession jitters following the release of crucial US data. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $31.13, down 0.32%.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The grey metal had shown signs of consolidation after failing to decisively clear the $33.00 on a daily closing basis, which could’ve exacerbated a rally towards the $34.00 figure. Instead, XAG/USD spot price cleared the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.20, opening the door to test the 50-day SMA at $30.89.
Although bears pushed prices lower, buyers reclaimed $31.00. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows sellers are gathering momentum.
Therefore, XAG/USD’s first support would be the 50-day SMA at $30.89 on further weakness. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at $30.47. If sellers conquer those two levels, the trend shifts downwards, and bears would be poised to challenge the January 27 daily through at $29.70.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The 50% retracement at $3.73 marks the beginning of a possible support zone that goes down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.56. Last week’s low at $3.55 marked support for the week and is part of the uptrend price structure of higher weekly highs and higher lows.
It therefore has significance as a drop below it provides a bearish weekly signal and could lead to a drop towards the lower internal uptrend line. Since the weekly low aligns with the 61.8% retracement at $3.56, it deserves extra attention. In addition to a lower trendline target, there is a price zone from $3.32 to $3.31, consisting of the 20-Week MA and the 78.6% retracement, respectively.
Price Range From $4.73 to $3.56
Within the $3.73 to $3.56 price range is the 50-Day MA at $3.71. That looks to be the next key potential support level, particularly since the 20-Day MA has converged with the 50-Day as of today. Both moving averages are rising and are on track converge with the 50% retracement level. Unless there is a sharp drop before the end of today’s session, this week will end as an inside week with a closing price near the lows of the range.
Monthly Chart Shows Downward Pressure
Moreover, February ends today with the sixth consecutive month of higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows. However, the month is set to close in a relatively weak position near the midpoint of the month’s trading range, which is $3.82. The prior two months also ended in a relatively weak position, especially January, which closed near the lows for the month. In addition, the 50-Month MA was exceeded over the past few months but in each case the month ended below the 50-Month line, now at $3.85.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver price could test the primary support at the psychological level of $31.00.
The daily chart analysis indicates an increasing bearish bias, with the descending channel pattern continuing to expand.
The pair could approach the initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of $31.83.
Silver price (XAG/USD) remains steady after registering losses in the previous session, trading near $31.20 per troy ounce during the early European session on Friday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a strengthening bearish outlook, with the grey metal moving downwards within a descending channel pattern.
Silver price also remains below the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling weakened short-term momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below the 50 mark, confirming the bearish bias is active.
To the downside, the XAG/USD pair may find initial support at the psychological level of $31.00, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel at the 30.70 level. A break below this level could reinforce the bearish bias, potentially pushing Silver’s price toward the five-month low of $28.74, last seen on December 19.
Silver price could encounter initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of $31.83, followed by the 14-day EMA at $31.89. The further barrier appears around the descending channel’s upper boundary at the $32.10 level. A break above this crucial resistance zone could restore the bullish outlook, potentially pushing the pair toward the four-month high of $33.40.
XAG/USD: Daily Chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Brent oil price continued to rise to test 74.00$ level, noticing that the price consolidates below this level after attempting to breach it in the previous sessions, accompanied by witnessing clear negative signals through stochastic, which overlaps negatively now.
Gold price sits at two-week lows below $2,900, awaiting US PCE inflation data.
US Dollar stands tall amid Trump’s tariff threats while US Treasury yields tank on dovish Fed bets.
Gold price finds acceptance below the 21-day SMA at $2,890, but the daily RSI stays bullish.
Gold price struggles near two-week lows below $2,900 in Friday’s Asian trading hours, looking to snap its eight consecutive weekly gains.
Gold price suffers amid US Dollar resurgence
Gold price is nursing losses as the US Dollar (USD) stands tall amid risk-off flows extending into Asia this Friday. Traders weigh the latest tariff threats from US President Donald Trump and the sharp decline in the American artificial intelligence (AI) leader Nvidia’s share price.
Trump confirmed on Thursday that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect March 4 along with an extra 10% duty on Chinese imports as fentanyl continues to pour into the US from those countries.
His latest remarks brushed aside his Wednesday message that steep 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods could take effect on April 2.
The broader market sentiment also remains undermined due to heightening US economic concerns and the slump in Nividia and other so-called “Magnificent Seven” Wall Street mega-cap stocks, following the chipmaker’s discouraging earnings.
Data on Thursday showed that the second estimate of the fourth-quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) held steady from the advance estimates, showing an annualised growth of 2.3% in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits rose by 22,000 to 242,000 for the week ending Feb. 22, hitting the highest level in three months.
Against this background, the Greenback will likely keep the upper hand across the board, maintaining the downside pressure on the USD-denominated bright metal.
However, weak US economic data-led dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations combined with increased safe-haven flows into the US government bonds remain a headwind for the US Treasury bond yields.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields extend their losing streak, flirting with 11-week lows near 4.20% at the press time. The ongoing decline in the US yields could hinder the US Dollar recovery, cushioning the Gold price downside.
That said, the upcoming Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will help trigger the next direction in Gold price. The annual US core PCE Price Index is set to rise 2.6% in January after increasing 2.8% in December. Any significant deviation from the forecast will likely impact the Fed rate cut bets, influencing the Greenback and the yellow metal.
Further, the end-of-the-month flows and more commentary from US President Trump could also play a pivotal role in driving the Gold price action as the week draws to a close.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that Gold price closed Thursday below the critical short-term support of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,890, inducing further downward pressure.
However, Gold price remains above the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently near 53.50, indicating that buyers refuse to give up yet.
If sellers flex their muscles, the immediate support is seen at the February 12 low of $2,864, below which the $2,850 psychological barrier will be challenged.
Additional declines will threaten the February 6 low of $2,834.
Should Gold buyers seek a weekly closing above the 21-day SMA support-tuned resistance at $2,890, a fresh uptrend could be fuelled toward the February 26 high of $2,930.
The next upside target on buyers’ radars will be an all-time high at $2,956.
Economic Indicator
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY)
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures.” Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
The GBPJPY pair touched 187.68 level this morning, achieving some previously waited negative targets, followed by waiting to form quick correctional rebound to settle near 188.70.
The current rebound won’t form any effect on the bearish scenario due to the consolidation within the bearish channel, in addition to 189.80 level forming strong additional barrier, thus, we will keep waiting to renew the negative attempts to expect moving towards 187.10 soon.
The expected trading range for today is between 187.10 and 189.50
