XAU/USD Current price: $3,311.12

• The US April ISM Services PMI came in much better than expected, at 51.6.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said trade deals with different nations could be announced this week.
• XAU/USD recovered the $3,300 mark and could extend gains in the upcoming sessions.

Gold turned higher on Monday, recovering the $3,300 mark and posting an intraday high of $3,328.94 early in the American session amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. Despite encouraging comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump regarding progress in trade talks with China, financial markets remained cautiously optimistic throughout the first half of the day.

Demand for the USD remained subdued, yet better-than-anticipated data gave the Greenback a near-term impulse after Wall Street’s opening. The April ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) beat expectations of 50.4, printing at 51.6 and improving from the 50.8 posted in March.

Meanwhile, comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also backed the USD. Bessent said we could see “substantial progress” on trade with China in the upcoming weeks while announcing good trade proposals from other trading partners. He also anticipated that some trade deals could be announced as soon as this week.

Finally, it’s worth adding that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision on monetary policy on Wednesday. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold, with the focus on Chairman Jerome Powell’s words on the near-term future of monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that bulls hold the grip. After last week’s slide, the pair managed to bounce from around a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing support at around $3,253.45. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes far below the shorter one, aligning with the upward trend. Finally, technical indicators bounced from around their midlines, currently gaining upward traction within positive levels, in line with higher highs for the week.

The near-term picture shows the risk skews to the upside, although the positive momentum receded. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators have turned flat near their intraday peaks well above their midlines. At the same time, XAU/USD develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA losing its bearish momentum after crossing below a still bullish 100 SMA.

Support levels: 3,290.10 3,273.15 3,258.60/

Resistance levels: 3,329.90 3,352.80 3,370.55

Is Storage Still a Drag or Already Priced In?

Traders are digesting last week’s bearish-leaning EIA storage report, which showed a 107 Bcf injection—nearly double the five-year average. While the headline figure was heavy, it came in slightly below top-end expectations and followed a stretch of mild weather. As a result, much of the bearish sentiment appears priced in. More importantly, regional inventory deficits remain stark, with the East and Midwest hubs showing year-over-year deficits of 21.7% and 24.4%, respectively. These regional shortfalls help explain why prices have found support despite a seasonally soft backdrop.

Will Weather Continue to Cap Upside Potential?

Mild spring temperatures are expected to dominate U.S. weather patterns from May 1–7, with most regions seeing highs between 60°F and 80°F. Cooling demand will be limited to the Southern tier, where some 90s are forecast, while minor heating demand may emerge in parts of the Midwest. Still, the lack of extreme conditions keeps a lid on residential and commercial gas use, muting any aggressive upward price momentum in the short term.

Export Demand and Supply Risks Offering a Floor?

Despite the soft weather narrative, structural demand factors remain firm. LNG feedgas demand rose 1.5% week-over-week to 15.8 Bcf/d, offering a stable export outlet supported by overseas buyers. U.S. electricity generation is also up 2.1% year-over-year, adding to power sector demand. On the supply side, dry gas production remains elevated at 105.6 Bcf/d, but rig counts have only ticked up slightly, reflecting a cautious approach by producers. Geopolitical noise is also growing louder, with proposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian gas imports introducing fresh supply-side uncertainty—particularly for the Northeast.

Short-Term Outlook: Bullish Setup Tempered by Weather Resistance

Goldman Sachs has slashed its oil price forecast for a third time in one month after OPEC+ decided this weekend to hike production in June with a similar 410,000-bpd increase it is implementing in May.

In an online meeting on Saturday, key OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

The move follows a similar surge announced for May and signals a sharp reversal from OPEC+ efforts to defend oil prices.

Following the announcement of another aggressive production hike, Goldman Sachs cut – again – its average oil price forecasts this year and next.

Goldman’s analysts now see Brent Crude prices averaging $60 per barrel this year, down from a previous forecast of $63 a barrel. The average price of the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was now downgraded at Goldman Sachs to $56 for 2025, down from $59 a barrel previously expected.

Next year, Brent is set to average $56 a barrel, down from $58, and WTI is expected at $52, down from $55 per barrel in the previous forecast from mid-April.

The key reason for the downgrade was the OPEC+ group’s decision to return more barrels to the market despite the uncertainties about economies and demand in the tariff wars and spats.

“Saturday’s decision increases our confidence that the new baseline size of production increases is likely 0.41mb/d,” Goldman Sachs’ strategists wrote in a note carried by Investing.com.

“The decision likely reflects relatively low inventories and a broader shift to a more long-run equilibrium focused on supporting internal cohesion and on strategically disciplining U.S. shale supply,” the investment bank’s strategists said.

According to Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities strategy at ING, the more aggressive supply hikes from OPEC+ mean that the oil surplus will be brought forward, leaving the market in surplus throughout 2025.

Weighed down by the prospect of higher-than-expected OPEC+ output and a market surplus, oil prices were down by 2% in Asian trading on Monday, with Brent dipping below the $60 per barrel mark.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.3%, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. This decline followed weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP data, which intensified bets on upcoming Fed rate cuts. Carlo Alberto De Casa, an external analyst at Swissquote, said that the slowing dollar is reinforcing gold’s appeal, especially as inflation and geopolitical tensions remain in play.

Fed Meeting Eyed for Rate Clarity

While the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting, traders will be closely watching the updated economic projections and speeches from Fed officials for clues on the timing and scale of potential rate cuts. Political pressure continues, with President Trump reiterating his call for the Fed to ease monetary policy, though confirming Jerome Powell will remain Fed Chair through 2026.

Supportive Backdrop for Gold Bulls

Gold continues to benefit from its role as a non-yielding hedge during periods of inflation risk and policy uncertainty. Trump’s remarks on active trade talks with multiple countries, including China, add another layer of support for gold’s safe-haven demand.

Goldman Sachs remains bullish, pointing to strong central bank gold purchases, a slowdown in Chinese solar production, and elevated U.S. recession risk as factors likely to keep gold outperforming silver in the near term.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Momentum Toward $3500

The EURJPY pair is forced to form a bearish correctional rebound this morning, affected by the stability of the resistance at 164.80, suffering clear losses by its approach from the initial support at 163.25 level.

Providing positive momentum by stochastic might increase the efficiency of the negative track in the current period, to expect reaching below the initial support and begin targeting several negative stations by reaching 162.45 and 161.90, while the price rally above the mentioned resistance will reinforce the chances for regaining the bullish bias, to expect targeting 165.25 level, reaching the next target at 166.40.

The expected trading range for today is between 162.45 and 164.10

Trend forecast: Bearish

No change on Copper price’s temporary sideways trading, due to its confinement between the extra barrier at $4.6600, while the moving average 55 keeps forming a new support by its fluctuation near $4.5400, and stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum might assist delaying the negative trading in the current trading, to increase the chances for compensating the previous losses, by its rally above the current barrier and targeting 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $4.8200.

Reaching below the support and providing a negative close will support the continuation of the suggested negativity, reminding you that the negative stations stability near $4.4500 and $4.3100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5300 and $4.6600

Trend forecast: Sideways

Barclays has cut its Brent crude price outlook, citing faster-than-expected output hikes by OPEC+. The bank now sees Brent averaging $66 per barrel in 2025 (down $4) and $60 in 2026 (down $2).

Key takeaways:

• OPEC+ ramped up output by 411,000 bpd in June, its second consecutive month of aggressive supply increases.

• Saudi Arabia is pressuring under-compliant members like Iraq and Kazakhstan to meet quotas by accelerating production growth.

• Barclays expects OPEC+ to fully unwind its voluntary cuts by October 2025 — a year earlier than previously projected.

• The bank also downgraded U.S. crude production forecasts, seeing output falling by 100,000 bpd in 2025 and 150,000 bpd in 2026.

• Brent crude dropped over $2 in early Monday trade, falling to $59.20 as of 0250 GMT.

Barclays says the faster supply growth could modestly loosen global oil market balances, adding pressure to prices.

Earlier:

***

For interest, and noting this is not what the market is thinking right now, some analysts are arguing that OPEC’s decision to increase oil production is not overly bearish, the main reason being that most of the increase is in the production ceiling, not
production … and is only on paper. It, in effect, legitimises overproduction
that is already in the market.

***

Oil update:

• Gold price drifts higher to around $3,245 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• US tariff uncertainty boosts the safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. 
• US NFP rose by 177K in April vs. 130K expected. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory near $3,245 during the early Asian session on Monday. The renewed concerns over the US recession and US-China trade relations provide some support to safe-haven assets like Gold. The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April will be in the spotlight later on Monday. 

While the Chinese Commerce Ministry indicated Beijing was considering an offer from the US to hold talks over US President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs, the two sides still seem far apart. Trump avoided answering the question if there will be trade deals this week, saying there ‘could’ be. The uncertainty surrounding tariff boosts the safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal. 

The rising bets that the Fed will cut its interest rate in June raise non-yielding bullion’s appeal. “The labor report leaves little doubt that the FOMC will keep rates on hold this week, and the bar for cutting is now even higher for June,” said Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan.

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 177K in April, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. This figure followed the 185K increase (revised from 228K) seen in March and came in above the market consensus of 130K. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2% in April, as expected, while the Average Hourly Earnings held steady at 3.8% YoY in the same reported period.

On the other hand, improved market sentiment and a risk-on trade could drag the yellow metal lower and lead to some profit-taking in Gold’s safe-haven. Trump eased tensions with the US Fed, saying that he will not remove Jerome Powell as Fed Board Chairman before his term ends in May 2026. Nonetheless, Trump reiterated his belief that the Fed should cut interest rates at some point

Crude oil markets took a fresh hit this weekend after OPEC+ stunned traders by announcing a larger-than-expected output increase for June. In a virtual meeting on Saturday, key producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

The move follows a similar surge announced for May and signals a sharp reversal from OPEC+ efforts to defend oil prices. Instead, Riyadh appears to be embracing a low-price strategy, aiming to discipline overproducing members like Kazakhstan and Iraq. Both nations have repeatedly exceeded their quotas, with Kazakhstan surpassing its March target by 422,000 bpd.

“OPEC+ has just thrown a bombshell to the oil market,” Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy told Bloomberg. “With this move, Saudi Arabia is seeking to punish lack of compliance and also ingratiate itself with President Trump.”

President Donald Trump has loudly demanded lower oil prices, and with fresh tariffs rattling global markets, OPEC+ appears to be aligning with Washington’s inflation-fighting agenda. Trump is set to visit the Middle East this month, and closer energy cooperation may be on the table.

Oil prices had already been under pressure, with Brent trading near $61 a barrel on Friday, a four-year low. The OPEC+ decision sent prices tumbling another 6%, compounding bearish sentiment triggered by trade war fears and weakening economic data.

Goldman Sachs responded by slashing its December 2025 oil forecast by $5 to $66 for Brent and $62 for WTI, citing both rising OPEC+ supply and Trump’s tariff barrage. “We no longer forecast a price range,” Goldman said, “because price volatility is likely to stay elevated on higher recession risk.”

Standard Chartered joined the chorus of bearish revisions, slashing its 2025 Brent forecast by $16 to $61 a barrel, and trimming its 2026 outlook to $78. The bank warned that the Trump administration’s tariff-heavy approach is fueling recession fears and eroding market confidence—especially after a downbeat U.S. economic report this week.

JPMorgan also raised its global recession odds to 60% for the year, while S&P Global warned that oil demand growth could drop by as much as 500,000 bpd.

OPEC+ justified the output hike by citing “continuing healthy market fundamentals,” though many see the move as an effort to assert market share and enforce compliance. Analysts like Helima Croft argue that by opening the taps, Saudi Arabia is reasserting control over rogue members while signaling readiness to let prices fall to discipline the market.

The eight members behind the increase—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—will reassess in June. But for now, the message is clear: OPEC+ is no longer defending high prices, and oil markets should prepare for more volatility ahead.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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