• Gold price holds the previous rebound from weekly lows early Wednesday.
• Fresh haven demand on tariff uncertainty and US economic woes underpin Gold price.
• Gold buyers stay hopeful amid bullish daily RSI, while the 21-day SMA at $2,883 holds.  

Gold price struggles to build on Tuesday’s rebound in the Asian session on Wednesday. Gold buyers try their luck as safe-haven flows return on US President Donald Trump’s tariff uncertainty and weak US economic prospects.

Gold price bounces after the profit-taking slide

It was a classic case of profit-taking in Gold price on Tuesday, following a fresh record high of $2,956 set on Monday. Further, Gold price lost ground after the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department showed that China’s total Gold imports via Hong Kong in January fell 44.8% from December to their lowest point since April 2022.

However, Gold buyers managed to stage a decent comeback in the mid-American session, courtesy of the weak US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence data that sparked US economic concerns and weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD) alongside the US Treasury bond yields.

US Consumer Confidence Index declined 7 points, its largest fall since August 2021, to 98.3, well below the Reuters estimate of 102.5.

Early Wednesday, Gold price sustains Tuesday’s late rebound as the tariff deadline on Canada and Mexico draws close. Meanwhile, underlying fears over a potential trade war continue to underpin the haven demand for the traditional store of value – Gold, keeping the downside short-lived.

Markets also weigh Trump’s ordering a new probe into possible new tariffs on copper imports to rebuild US production of the red metal.

US President signed an order on Tuesday, directing Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to start a new national security probe under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the same law that Trump used in his first term to impose 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminium.

The Gold price upswing, however, could face headwinds from a modest rebound in the Greenback and the US Treasury bond yields following the US House approval of the Republican Budget plan, which will likely advance Trump’s tax plans

Additionally, the optimism over the US-Sino meeting on tariffs also thwart the Gold price uptick but trade war concerns could continue to fuel dip-buying in the metal. Speeches from Fed policymakers could also provide some impetus to the non-interest-bearing Gold price due to a lack of top-tier US economic data releases on Wednesday.  

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Despite the previous corrective decline, Gold price defended the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,883.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stalled its descent to turn higher, currently near 64, pointing to the additional upside.  

Gold buyers could retest the all-time highs at $2,956 if the rebound gathers steam. The next topside barriers are seen at the $2,970 resistance and the $3,000 threshold.

On the flip side, the immediate support is seen at the $2,900 round level, below which the 21-day SMA at $2,883 will be challenged again.

Further south, the February 14 low of $2,877 will be tested.

• Silver price edges higher to near $31.75 in Wednesday’s Asian session, adding 0.35% on the day. 
• The positive view of Silver prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator. 
• The immediate resistance level emerges at $33.00; the first downside target to watch is 31.25.

Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers to around $31.75, snapping the three-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The uncertainty and worries about US President Donald Trump’s tariffs boost the Silver price, a safe-haven asset. 

Technically, the bullish trend of Silver remains in place as the commodity is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline near 50.0, displaying a neutral momentum in the near term. 

The first upside target for white metal emerges at $33.00, representing the psychological level and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to $33.40, the high of February 14. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is 34.55, the high of October 29, 2024. 

On the flip side, the initial support level for Silver price is seen at 31.25, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to the key contention level at $31.00, the round mark and the 100-day EMA. The additional downside filter to watch is $29.70, the low of January 27.  

Silver price (XAG/USD) Daily Chart

Gold price faced additional negative pressures to confirm breaking the bullish channel’s support line, to head towards achieving bearish correction on the intraday basis, targeting testing 2868.80$ as a next negative station, which represents 23.6% Fibonacci correction level for the rise measured from 2583.75$ to 2956.90$.

Natural gas price took advantage of the minor bullish channel’s support line stability at 3.950$ to start forming new bullish waves and achieve some gains by reaching 4.190$, to close the recent gap.

The contradiction between the major indicators might push the price to form some sideways trades until gathering the required positive momentum to record more gains by rallying towards 4.300$ first, followed by repeating the pressure on 4.500$ high.

The expected trading range for today is between 4.050$ and 4.300$

Trend forecast: Bullish

Crude oil price settles at 69.00$ after the strong decline that it witnessed in the previous sessions, noticing that the price resumes the main bearish track within the bearish channel that appears on the chart, which supports the chances of continuing the decline on the intraday and short term basis and head to achieve more negative targets.

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Down by 14.6%

At today’s low, the price of crude oil had decreased by $11.80 or 14.6% from the recent swing high at $80.76. On a relative basis, that put it at the low end of bearish corrections that have occurred since the April 2024 peak. There were four corrections identified since then that ranged from a decline of 14.7% to 18.3%. These measured moves indicate that the current correction may be close to completing and that crude oil may have a little more to fall before the correction is complete.

Monthly Bearish Reversal Points to Lower Prices

Crude oil triggered a monthly bearish reversal earlier this month (not shown) and it continues to trade near the lows of the month. This shows aggressive selling with lower monthly support in a range from around $67.11 to $66.65. Given the decisiveness of the bearish retracement, these lower price levels may yet be tested before a notable bounce. There are three more trading days before the end of February, which means that crude is at risk of ending the month in a bearish position, near the lows of the month.

Nearing Key Price Levels

Although the lower trendline provides a potential support line, the next lower support zone is from $67.11 to $66.86. That range is determined by two previous interim swing lows that were established late last year. They represent a more significant support area since a drop below that price range more clearly indicates a possible continuation of the larger bear trend.

Since the $131.31 swing high in March 2022 crude oil has been in a downtrend with a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. However, a new lower swing low for the downtrend was attempted in September with a decline to $65.65. But that decline failed to fall below the earlier swing low at $63.67 from May 2023. The September support zone could be challenged if the $66.86 price area fails to hold as support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver hits two-week low of $31.29 before bouncing above $31.50.
• RSI signals bearish momentum, with key support at 100-day SMA of $31.20.
• Upside potential if XAG/USD reclaims $32.00, targeting $32.48 and $33.00.

Silver prices plunged on Tuesday more than 1.80%, which witnessed the grey metal printing a daily peak of $32.48, before sliding below the $32.00 figure due to risk aversion and traders booking profits amidst uncertainty about US trade policies. The XAG/USD trades at $31.73 unchanged as Wednesday’s Asian session commences.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Despite printing a two-week low of $31.29, XAG/USD bounced near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $31.20, which if broken, would clear the path for bears to drive Silver prices toward the $30 handle. However, bulls emerged and drove the precious metal above $31.50, keeping them hopeful of re-testing the $32.00 figure.

Momentum shifted bearish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing below 50, an indication that sellers are in charge. Therefore, further downside is seen.

On the other hand, if Silver climbs above $32.00, bulls can push prices towards February 25 high of $32.48. If cleared, they would remain in charge, poised to challenge $33.00.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Gold price resumed its positive trading, and continues to fluctuate around the bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart, facing negative pressures affected by the negative momentum that appears through stochastic, while the EMA50 provides continuous positive support to the price.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,895.33

• US President Donald Trump revived tariffs-related concerns and spurred risk aversion.
• United States Consumer Confidence plummeted in February, recession concerns returned.
• XAU/USD turned bearish in the near term, could near the $2,800 region.

Spot Gold is on the back foot in the second half of Tuesday, trading below the $2,900 mark and trimming early weekly gains. The US Dollar (USD) gathered upward momentum after Wall Street’s opening, trading firmly, particularly against commodities and commodity-linked rivals. On the contrary, the USD is mildly weak against European rivals amid falling US Treasury yields. In the case of XAU/USD, the lack of upward progress towards fresh record highs triggered profit-taking.

Concerns gyrate around the United States (US) government’s planned tariffs. President Donald Trump brought back to the table levies on Canada, Mexico and China, saying that he plans to “move forward” after the announced one-month delay, adding that additional tariffs could soon reach Chinese products.

Trump Trade Adviser Peter Navarro, however, clarified that US authorities are negotiating with Mexico and Canada, adding that levies will depend on the progress of such negotiations.

Stock markets suffered since early Asia amid Trump hitting the tech sector, with menaces on imposing restrictions to Chinese semiconductors. As a result, the tech sector is the worst performer, with the Nasdaq Composite down roughly 330 points.

Further fueling the dismal mood, the US CB Consumer Confidence report showed consumers turned more pessimistic, as the index fell to 98.3 in February from 104.1 in January. It also missed expectations of 102.7 while showing Expectations plunged to 72.9, below the 80 mark that separates growth from recession.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows the bearish corrective decline could continue, particularly if the pair breaks below a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing dynamic support at around $2,879.95. The 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north far below the shorter one, limiting the potential of a sustained bearish move. Finally, technical indicators head south almost vertically, reflecting sellers’ strength yet holding above their midlines, which is not enough to confirm a steeper decline.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish case is firmer. XAU/USD plunged below a mildly bearish 20 SMA, now acting as dynamic resistance at around $2,936.20. At the same time, the pair is battling a bullish 100 SMA while technical indicators head firmly south near oversold readings. Should the pair clear the area around the mentioned 100 SMA, the slide could extend towards the next relevant level, January’s monthly high at $2,817.04.

Support levels: 2,879.95  2,863.60 2,855.45

Resistance levels: 2,908. 2,921.50 2,636.20

Generac Holdings’ stock price (GNRC) gained ground in the intraday levels, while trying to recoup some recent losses, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the short term, while trading alongside a steel trend line, reflecting the negative pressure, with negative signals from the RSI after reaching overbought levels, and ongoing negative pressure as well due to trading below the 50-day SMA. 

Therefore we expect the stock to return lower, targeting the support of $131.66, provided the resistance of $151.60 holds on.

Trend forecast for today: Bearish