Day Likely Ends Bearish

Although it is not surprising to see another attempt to go to new highs a subsequent intraday selloff puts natural gas at risk of ending the day with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Even though it is a bearish pattern inside an inside day pattern, it shows sellers dominating. The shooting star is typically a stronger bearish indication if it occurs at the top of an uptrend. That would have been yesterday. Nonetheless, in this case the bearish one-day candle follows a bearish candle from Thursday.

Resistance Continues to Hold

Resistance has been seen around a logical price resistance zone marked by a top parallel rising trend channel line. A bullish breakout above the line and therefore the channel was last attempted on January 13, the prior trend high. That new high day also ended the day in a decisive bearish position. Even though there could be more upside before the current advance is complete, the combination of the channel line pattern and the bearish response indicate that the chance of a bearish pullback of some degree is more likely now.

Bearish Below $4.15

A bearish signal will be indicated on a drop below today’s low of $4.15. Yesterday’s low of $4.03 along with the 50% retracement of an internal uptrend at $4.02 is the next potential support area. However, there is confluence of two Fibonacci retracement levels at $3.98, which may make it a more likely target for a minimum pullback. Further down is a possible support zone from $3.75 to $3.73. The behavior around the internal thin uptrend line showing near-term dynamic support should also provide clues as to changes in support and demand. If a deeper pullback does occur, a minimum test of support around that trendline seems likely.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price faces pressure above $33 as Fed policymakers see interest rates remaining in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%.
• Fed officials struggle to gauge the impact of Trump’s economic agenda on the economy.
• The broader outlook of the Silver price remains firm amid Trump’s tariff agenda.

Silver price (XAG/USD) faces selling pressure above the key level of $33.00 in North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal drops as the US Dollar (USD) gains, with Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continuing to guide a restrictive monetary policy stance. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, advances to near 106.75.

On Thursday, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that the central bank should keep borrowing rates “in place” for “some time,” noting the net effect of new economic policies by United States (US) President Donald Trump is “highly uncertain” and will depend on the “specifics.”

The scenario of the Fed maintaining a restrictive interest rate stance bodes poorly for precious metals such as Silver price.

Meanwhile, fears of President Trump’s tariff agenda would keep the Silver price on the frontfoot. On Thursday, Trump announced that he could impose tariffs on lumber and forest products, cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors over the next month or sooner. Market participants expect Trump’s tariff agenda will lead to a global economic slowdown.

Investors are also focusing on development in Russia-US talks to end the war in Ukraine. This week, Donald Trump agreed to hold more talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin for negotiations to have a truce with Ukraine. A positive outcome from peace talks would weaken the safe-haven appeal of the Silver price.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price aims to revisit an over three-month high of $33.40, which it posted on February 14. The outlook of the white metal is bullish as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has been sloping higher, which trades around $31.33.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 60.00-80.00 range, suggesting that the momentum is strongly bullish.

Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline from the August 8 low of $26.45 will act as key support for the Silver price around $30.00. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the key barrier.

Silver daily chart

The GBPJPY pair touched the first additional negative target by reaching 188.68 followed by forming correctional bullish rebound to settle near 190.35, noting that the consolidation within the minor bearish channel and settling below 191.70 resistance line confirm the preparation to renew the negative attempts and repeat the pressure on 188.70 level, while confirming the break will push the price to reach the next negative target at 187.90.

On the other hand, breaching the mentioned resistance and settling above it will allow the price to build new bullish track to press on 50% Fibonacci correction level at 193.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 188.00 and 191.30

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price attempted to face the negative pressures by fluctuating above the initial support 4.5300$, while the continuous contradiction between the major indicators pushes the price to provide new sideways trades to keep its stability below 4.6800$ barrier.

We expect to continue providing sideways trades, noting that stochastic continuous negative momentum might assist to decline below the current support and suffer additional losses by reaching 4.4600$.

The expected trading range for today is between 4.4600$ and 4.6200$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Crude oil price continued to rise yesterday to reach 72.65$ areas, noting that holding above 72.30$ supports the chances of continuing the rise in the upcoming sessions, by when we take a deeper look at the chart, we find that the recent trades are confined within rising wedge pattern that its support line meets 72.30$, which means that breaking this level will push the price to return to the bearish track again.

• Gold price corrects from near all-time highs early Friday, anticipating US PMI data.
• US Dollar attempts a comeback amid cautious mood, despite sluggish US Treasury bond yields
• Gold price remains exposed to upside risks, as the daily technical setup indicates.

Gold price is on a corrective move lower from near record highs of $2,955 set on Thursday. Despite the pullback, Gold price remains on track to book the eighth consecutive weekly gain.

Gold price eyes eighth weekly rise and US PMI data

The latest leg down in Gold price could be attributed to profit-taking as traders reposition ahead of the first critical economic data release from the United States (US) this week – the S&P Global Preliminary business PMIs.

The data could help markets refocus on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) outlook on interest rate cuts after the Minutes of the January policy meeting failed to alter their expectations of two rate reductions this year.  

The Minutes backed the Fed cautious stance on Wednesday as it showed that “many participants noted that the committee could hold the policy rate at a restrictive level if the economy remained strong and inflation remained elevated” in the face of Trump’s trade policies.

Persistent expectations that the Fed will likely deliver two rate cuts in 2025 continue to underpin the sentiment around the non-yielding Gold price.

That said, any adverse reaction to the strong PMI data on Gold price could be short-lived if fresh developments surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans hit the wires and strengthen the safe-haven demand for the traditional store of value – Gold.

The recent tariff talks by Trump and geopolitical tensions around Russia-Ukraine peace deal have supported the record rally in Gold price.

However, the bright metal could extend its correction from lifetime highs if traders cash in on their longs ahead of next week’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data release.

All in all, any dip in Gold price will likely be seen as a good buying opportunity in the near term.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price turns lower after failing to find acceptance above the $2,950 psychological mark on a daily candlestick closing basis.

But the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns to the bullish zone, currently near 69.75, suggesting a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade in the Gold price.

A sustained break above the $2,950 barrier could resume the record rally. The next relevant resistances are seen at $2,970 and the $3,000 key figure.

Conversely, a fresh pullback could call for a test of the $2,900 round level, below which the February 14 low of $2,877 will be threatened.

A firm break of that level will initiate a fresh downside toward the $2,850 psychological barrier.

Gold price returns to provide positive trades after the decline that it witnessed in the previous sessions, and according to the trading rules inside the channel, the price is on its way to build new bullish wave on the intraday basis, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, besides the positive signal provided by stochastic now.

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Potential for Lower Swing High

Today’s high has the potential to retain the downtrend price structure with a lower swing high. A drop below today’s low of $72.09 will establish a new lower swing high and retain the integrity of the downtrend that began from the $80.76 swing high. The downtrend remains in place unless there is a sustained rally above the February 11 interim swing high at $72.64.

However, if today’s high establishes a new lower swing high and it is subsequently broken to the upside, that could provide an early signal for a bullish change in trend. Nonetheless, a rally above today’s high prior to establishing a new lower swing high puts crude oil in a position to challenge the $72.64 swing high. Subsequently, if a $72.64 bull breakout triggers, the 200-Day MA at $74.49 becomes the next higher price target.

Next Lower Target at $70.52 if Decline Continues 

Alternatively, the bearish correction continues to lower price targets, starting with the 78.6% retracement at $70.03. There is also a range of prior consolidation that represents potential support below the current retracement low at $70.52. Reaching the 78.6% retracement level could signal the completion of the decline. Notice that crude oil has been trading near trend lows recently and it has been showing signs of consolidation. In other words, bearish momentum has diminished.

Lower Level at $68.82

That could be the end of it but if not the $68.82 interim swing low marks a lower price target. A drop below Wednesday’s low of $72.07 shows weakness that could lead to lower prices if the breakdown is sustained. It may be easier to recognize on the weekly chart (not shown).

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

50% Retracement of Small Upswing

Today’s bearish pullback following the $4.48 high has almost completed a 50% retracement of an internal upswing. The 50% level is at $4.02 and the low for the day so far was $4.03. Nonetheless, that is a price level measuring a shorter internal upswing while the first retracement level from the full advance is at $3.91. That price level is the convergence of both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full advance and the 61.8% retracement of the internal upswing. Therefore, baring a breakout to new highs before a pullback, that price level is the first lower target.

Lower Price Levels

Subsequently, the next lower confluence potential support zone is identified from $3.75 to $3.73. It consists of a 78.6% retracement level and a 50% retracement level, respectively. Nonetheless, both the 20-Day MA and 50-Day MAs were recently reclaimed during the recent rise. There has not yet been a test of support around those moving averages other than on one-day.

Therefore, if a deeper pullback occurs, they would be obvious potential targets. Keep in mind that the price levels represented are dynamic. Currently, the 50-Day line is at $3.62 and the 20-Day is at $2.57. Moreover, there is also a minor swing low (begins the internal upswing Fibonacci measurement) and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.56 and $3.55, respectively.

Bull Continuation Above $4.48

Since the top channel line was successfully tested as resistance today, it may also mark a point of potential resistance in the future. Nonetheless, a decisive breakout above today’s high has natural gas heading towards, $4.56, $4.70/$4.72, followed by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement for the full downtrend that began from the 2022 high at $10.03.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,943.03

• Concerns about the potential effects of US tariffs on the global economy hit financial markets.
• S&P Global will release the preliminary estimates for the February PMIs on Friday.
• XAU/USD keeps finding buyers on dips, higher highs likely before the week is over.

Spot Gold traded as high as $2,955.18 a troy ounce on Thursday, a fresh all-time high. The bright metal kept rallying despite a dismal market mood as market players weighed in on the potential negative effects of United States (US) tariffs on the global economy.                 

XAU/USD retreated early in the American session as the dismal mood temporarily boosted demand for the US Dollar (USD), yet persistent fears and a free-fall in Wall Street limited the slide. The pair currently trades around $2,940, retaining its overall positive tone.

Fears rotate around US President Donald Trump’s plans for massive tariffs. Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals shipped to the US as early as April 2. He also noted that tariffs could go higher throughout the year.

Concerns intensified after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the Minutes of the January meeting, which showed officials are worried about the potential effects of tariffs on the economy.

The focus shifts now to the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) and S&P Global preliminary estimates of the February Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for most major economies. The PMI reports are a measure of local economic health. The US will also release the final estimate of the January Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, while a couple of Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will hit the wires.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it keeps posting higher highs and higher lows, which is in line with the dominant bullish trend. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within overbought levels, lacking clear directional strength yet heading north, suggesting buying pressure is still strong. Finally, the same chart shows Gold develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly north, roughly $100 below the current level.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is poised to extend its advance. The pair met intraday buyers at around a bullish 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMAs head firmly north far below the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, resumed their advances after correcting overbought conditions, supporting higher highs ahead.

Support levels: 2,924.10 2,913.05 2,909.60  

Resistance levels: 2,960.00 2,975.00 2,990.00