• Silver price gains ground as the daily chart analysis suggests a persistent bullish bias.
• The pair may find its primary resistance around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the $33.10 level.
• The initial support appears at the nine-day EMA of $32.08.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading near $32.40 per troy ounce during Monday’s Asian session. A daily chart analysis suggests a continued bullish trend, as the metal price moves upward within an ascending channel.

The XAG/USD pair continues to trade above the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating robust short-term momentum. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, reinforcing the overall bullish outlook.

Silver price may face initial resistance near the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the $33.10 level, followed by the four-month high of $33.40, which was reached on February 14.

On the downside, support is located at the nine-day EMA around $32.08, followed by the 14-day EMA at $31.85, and the lower boundary of the ascending channel at $31.60. A break below this critical support zone could undermine the bullish outlook, potentially exposing the XAG/USD pair to further declines toward its five-month low of $28.74, which was recorded on December 19.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

Coffee price started to form correctional bearish waves after facing 438.00$ barrier, to notice activating the attempts to gain profits by crawling towards 411.00, while the intraday negativity is caused by stochastic decline below 50 level, which allows us to suggest forming mixed trades until gathering the positive momentum again, to confirm the domination of the bullish scenario on the near-term and medium-term basis.

The frequent stability above 399.00$ support line confirms keeping the bullish track, to expect gathering additional positive momentum and renew the pressure on the mentioned barrier, while surpassing it will push the price to record new historical highs that might start at 447.00$ and 454.00$.

The expected trading range for today is between 431.00 and 407.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price trades in negative territory around $2,880 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Trump tariff delay eases panic in markets, weighing on the Gold price. 
• The uncertainty, rising trade tensions and weaker USD could lift the XAU/USD price. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to near $2,880 due to profit-taking during the early Asian session on Monday. However, fears of a global trade war in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s push for reciprocal tariffs might help limit the precious metal’s losses. 

The delay in the Trump administration’s tariff proposals being implemented and profit-taking by traders cap the upside for the yellow metal. Trump on Thursday signed a presidential memorandum laying out his plan to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on foreign nations. However, he delayed their implementation as his administration launched negotiations on a one-by-one basis with nations that could be impacted. The easing fear of a global trade war weighs on the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding further Trump’s tariff policies. Any signs of escalating trade tension and uncertainty could boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal. 

The downbeat US economic data drag the US Dollar (USD) lower, which could provide some support to the USD-denominated commodities price. Retail Sales in the United States fell by 0.9% in January from the 0.7% increase (revised from 0.4%) in December, the US Census Bureau showed Friday. This figure came in below the market consensus of -0.1%.

Short Term Trend Remains Down

Keep in mind that the short-term pattern in crude, since the January swing high, is a declining trend. A rise above today’s high would signal a countertrend advance with crude rising into multiple potential resistance levels. Moreover, the decline today put the price of crude oil back below the 50-Day MA after a test of resistance around the 20-Day MA earlier this week. This suggests that the retracement low might not have been reached yet.

12.6% Bearish Correction Completed

Today’s low completed a $10.17 or 12.6% bearish correction from the most recent swing high in January. Therefore, this downswing is a match on a percentage basis with the largest downswings seen since September of last year. The value of crude oil previously decreased by 12.6% from the October 8 swing high, the largest downswing since September.

What this indicates is that the low for the retracement may have been reached, and if not, it should do so if the 78.6% retracement at $70.03 is tested as support. A little below that level is a minor swing low at $68.82, along with a short rising trendline across the bottom of recent price action.

Lower Support Points to $70.03

This is not to say that crude oil couldn’t fall lower. Certainly, the trendline could be broken and lower price levels tested. There are larger downswings that occurred following the April 2024 peak and crude would be closer to matching those larger drops if the 78.6% level or trendline support is reached. The largest decline since then was around 18%.

It is also interesting to note that the drop today triggered a bearish continuation on the weekly chart as last week’s low of $70.91 failed to hold as support. Moreover, the decline today put crude oil back below its 20-Week MA after rallying back above it earlier in the week. The 20-Week line is at a price of $72.14 currently.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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Crude oil price settles around 71.50$ level, fluctuating near the bearish channel’s resistance line that appears on the chart, while the EMA50 forms continuous negative pressure against the price, to support the chances of declining again in the upcoming sessions.

Silver price provides more bullish bias to approach the intraday bullish channel’s resistance line that appears on the chart, which meets the waited target at 32.86$, getting continuous positive support by the EMA50, to reinforce the chances of continuing the rise in the upcoming sessions.

Further Weakness Likely Below $3.64

Further weakness towards lower potential support levels may follow a drop below today’s low of $3.64. Potential support around the 20-Day and 50-Day MA, currently from $3.53 to $3.56 will likely be tested. Notice that the 20-Day line crossed below the 50-Day line today. That relationship should continue to provide clues going forward. Natural gas completed a $1.38 or 31.6% bearish correction at the $2.99 low two weeks ago. Given the subsequent $0.81 or 27% advance, as of today’s high, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a rest before it may be ready to proceed higher.

Lower Support

Other price levels to watch for support include the prior interim swing high at $3.39 from early January and this week’s low at $3.35. The $3.39 price level is confirmed by the 50% retracement of the recent advance, which is $3.40. Further down is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.03. The $3.30 price level is also the two-week low. Notice that in both cases, there are two indicators pointing to the same of similar price area.

Long-term Bull Trend Remains Intact

In the bigger picture, long-term bullish signals triggered the last quarter of 2024. There was the breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern and a bullish reversal of the long-term downtrend. The expectation is for the bull trend starting from the low of $1.52 to eventually continue once the correction is complete.

Notice that the recent swing low that followed the $4.37, an almost two-year high, successfully found support around the initial bull breakout area of $3.02. The subsequent bullish reaction indicates the low was likely significant and it established a higher swing high for the price structure of the uptrend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Possible Double Top Forms

Today’s price action will leave a small possible double top. The neckline and breakdown level were at Tuesday’s low of $2,864. However, that price area is currently the next potential support level. Another bearish piece of evidence from today is that it is a key reversal day that generated the second top of a possible double top pattern. Once the bearish evidence starts to stack up, the potential for a bearish correction strengthens.

Weekly Chart is Bearish

Moreover, on the weekly chart, gold is set to complete a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern this week. Therefore, a bearish weekly reversal signal will be triggered on a drop below this week’s low of $2,853. That would put gold in a position to test the 20-Day MA, now at $2,817. Notice that since the 20-Day line was reclaimed in early-January, the price of gold has stayed above the line. The line has not been tested as support since then.

Certainly, it is likely to represent support during the current bearish correction, if it does continue. If not, the most recent new high breakout level is at $2,790 and support may be seen around that price area. There is also monthly support a little lower at $2,772. Those two price levels can be considered as a potential support range from $2,790 to $2,772.

Test of Support at 20-Day MA Possible

Given current price patterns, including a bullish monthly breakout that triggered this month, a bearish correction should not negate the longer bullish pattern unless there is a drop below this month’s low of 2,772. Although the month is not yet complete, that low is also a weekly low and a drop below it is bearish on its own. However, for the intermediate bullish view to be retained the 20-Day MA should show support and lead to a bullish reversal.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The GBPCAD price ended the correctional bearish decline by providing positive close above the bullish channel’s support line at 1.7700, to notice forming many bullish waves and achieve some gains by touching 1.7860 level followed by fluctuating near the MA55 at 1.7800.

The main stability within the bullish channel and stochastic positive momentum signals will increase the chances of gaining the positive momentum, to keep our bullish overview that might target 1.7890 followed by reaching 1.7960.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.7780 and 1.7890

Trend forecast: Bullish