• Silver price grips gains near $32.30 amid weakness in the US Dollar and uncertainty over Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
• The US Dollar declines as optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks has improved market sentiment.
• Hot US CPI data for January has boosted expectations for the Fed’s “higher for longer” interest rates.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto gains near Wednesday’s high around $32.30 in Thursday’s European session. The white metal remains firm amid uncertainty that United States (US) President Donald Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs on Thursday.

The White House said on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump could announce his reciprocal tariff plan before he meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday.

Such a scenario would deepen fears of a global trade war, which will boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals, such as Silver.

In the election campaign, Trump said that he would implement a policy of “an eye for an eye, a tariff for a tariff, same exact amount.”

Meanwhile, the market sentiment is risk-on as leaders of Russia and Ukraine have agreed to peace talks after a three-year-long war. The Silver price had a strong rally when Russia and Ukraine entered a war.

Apart from the uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs, the Silver price clings to gains due to weakness in the US Dollar (USD). Risk-on market mood due to Russia-Ukraine peace talks has weighed heavily on the US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) declining to near 107.50.

The US Dollar weakens even though the hot US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January has boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for longer. Technically, higher interest rates for longer bodes poorly for the Silver price.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price continues to face pressure near the immediate resistance of $32.50, which is plotted from the December 9 high. The outlook of the white metal remains bullish as it holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $30.95.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the momentum is not bullish for now. However, the upside bias is intact.

Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline from the August 8 low of $26.45 will be the key support for the Silver price around $29.50. While, the October 31 high of $33.90 will be the key barrier.

Silver daily chart

Crude oil price confirmed breaking 72.30$ level after closing yesterday below it, starting today with strong decline to head towards expected testing to 70.30$ level, noting that the price returns to the bearish channel that appears on the chart.

• Gold price regains $2,900 as looming Trump’s reciprocal tariffs risk a trade war.
• The US Dollar stays subdued despite hot US CPI inflation data and hawkish Fed Chair Powell.
• Gold price sees dip-buying amid a 4H bullish technical setup ahead of US PPI data.

Gold price is trying to hold above the $2,900-mark early Thursday, having witnessed intense volatility a day ago. The focus once again remains on the US fundamentals and US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans for a fresh boost to Gold prices.

Gold price capitalizes on Trump’s tariffs-led nervousness

White House noted late Wednesday that the earlier announced reciprocal tariffs by President Trump could come by on Thursday, keeping the haven demand for the traditional safety net – Gold price – intact.

However, Gold traders remain wary of creating additional bullish positions in the bright metal amid increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could pause its easing trajectory until the third quarter of this year. The hotter-than-expected January US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published on Wednesday reinforced the hawkish bets surrounding the Fed’s interest rates outlook.

The annual headline CPI increased 3% in January, up from 2.9% the previous month. The core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.3% over the year in January versus December’s 3.2% growth. Speaking with US lawmakers Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the latest data show we’re close but not there on inflation, implying that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates further.

The Fed’s hawkishness triggered a sharp rally in the US Treasury bond yields on Wednesday, fuelling a steep decline in Gold price to near the $2,865 region. Gold buyers quickly jumped in on bargain hunting, lifting the yellow metal to settle back above $2,900. Gold is widely considered a hedge against inflation, which remains at the top of the market’s concerns.  

Attention now turns toward the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data due later in Thursday’s American session for further cues on the Fed’s policy stance, which could influence the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

However, any downside in Gold price will likely remain cushioned as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could raise tensions surrounding a potential trade war worldwide. The European Union (EU) will prioritize negotiations over retaliatory countermeasures to avoid a damaging trade war, officials signalled earlier on Wednesday.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart

Following a brief dip below the critical 21-four hourly Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,897, Gold price managed to recapture the latter, fuelling a gradual recovery.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well above the midline, currently near 63.50, backing the upside potential.

The further recovery will need acceptance above the $2,910 round level on a four-hourly candlestick closing basis.

The next topside barrier is aligned at the record high of $2,943.

On the flip side, a four-hourly candlestick closing below the 21-four hourly SMA at $2,897 will reinforce the selling interest, calling for a test of the 50-four hourly SMA at $2,866.

The last line of defense for Gold buyers is the 100-four hourly SMA at $2,816.

Campbell Soup Company’s stock price (CPB) rose in the intraday levels, buoyed by positive signals from the RSI as the price tries to retest the resistance of $37.94, while recouping some recent losses, amid the dominance of the main downward trend in the short term, with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA. 

Therefore we expect the price to return lower, provided it settles firmly below the resistance of $37.94, thus targeting the support of $33.90.

Trend forecast for today: Likely Bearish 

Copper price returned to renew the bullish attempts after holding above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 4.5400$, to surpass 4.6900$ resistance line this morning and hint its preparation to resume the bullish attack by settling near 4.7100$.

The price needs to gather the additional positive momentum to manage to hold above the mentioned resistance and ease the mission of recording additional gains that might extend towards 4.8050$ and 4.8920$ levels soon.

The expected trading range for today is between 4.6500$ and 4.8050$

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair continued to form strong bullish trades, taking advantage of the frequent stability above 189.70 level that formed key support against the bullish attempts, to notice surpassing the first additional target at 192.30 and approach 50% Fibonacci correction level at 193.30 as a next station for the current trades.

Also, stochastic reach to 80 level confirms providing the additional positive momentum to increase the chances of surpassing 193.30 level soon to manage to record additional gains that might start at 193.60 and 194.20 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 191.80 and 193.60

Trend forecast: Bullish

Crude oil price confirmed breaking 72.30$ level after closing yesterday below it, starting today with strong decline to head towards expected testing to 70.30$ level, noting that the price returns to the bearish channel that appears on the chart.

Bullish Hammer Setting Up

Although today’s decline triggered a breakdown below Tuesday’s bearish shooting star candlestick pattern, the bullish reaction today may negate that signal. Nonetheless, near-term price levels look relatively clear. Today’s low of $2,864 is short term support. If broken to the downside the trendline will also have failed to retain support and lower prices become targets.

This week’s low at $2,853 is a key price level as it is part of a series of six consecutive weeks of higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows. A change in that bullish weekly pattern may provide a clue to That bullish pattern may begin to change once that pattern starts to change.

Near Term Resistance at Monday’s High of $2,912

On the upside, a breakout above today’s high of $2,909 will show strength, but Monday’s high of $2,912 should also be considered. It was resistance on Monday, which had the highest historical closing price at $2,907. Tuesday’s record high in gold was $2,943.

The advance completed a couple targets there were derived from Fibonacci extension and projection targets. Therefore, resistance was seen in a price area that could lead to a pullback. Nonetheless, if the $2,943 high is exceeded higher targets start with $2,961, followed by $2,982.

Channel Shows Possible Higher Target

Furthermore, notice that there is a trendline across the top of a large parallel trend channel. The line was confirmed with the recent swing high at $2,790. It also shows the possibility of higher prices if Tuesday’s high can be exceeded.

Silver price ended yesterday above 31.63$ level and the negative pressure that it witnessed in the previous sessions, to keep the bullish trend scenario active for the upcoming period, organized inside the bullish channel that appears on the chart, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below.

Daily Close Above 50-Day Line is Bullish

A daily close above the 50-Day line is bullish and may provide a clue that indicates further underlying strength in the price of natural gas. Also, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.51 was exceeded for the second time today and a strong close above that price level looks likely. However, today’s rise was the first test of resistance around the 20-Day MA since the drop below it on January 27. Resistance has been seen but whether it can be sustained remains to be seen. Given the signs of underlying strength, a reclaim of the 20-Day MA may be possible before a pullback.

Reclaim of 20-Day Line Would Show Further Strength

If the 20-Day MA can be reclaimed, the next higher target zone is from around $3.64 to $3.69. That price zone consists of the prior swing high and peak for 2023 at $3.64, a 50% retracement level at $3.67, and a 127.2% extended target for a small rising ABCD pattern (not shown). The initial target for the ABCD pattern was completed at $3.58.

Now that the 20-Day line has fallen to converge with the $3.58, the $3.58 price zone takes on greater potential significance. Since a breakout above the 2023 high of $3.64 provided a new bullish trend reversal signal for the long-term trend in late-December, it is a key price level. A rise above it would be bullish, and especially a daily close above it.

Last week’s price range and likely this week as well are within the price range from two weeks ago from $2.99 to $3.83. Since the low end of the price range was tested as support with last week’s low, an upswing to test resistance near the week’s high could be in process.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.