Oil markets are bracing for impact as President Trump’s aggressive trade and energy policies create fresh uncertainty. Prices have been on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks, with Brent crude trading a month ago at $76.30, shooting up to $82, then falling back down on Tuesday to $75.95 per barrel (+0.07%). But the real storm may still be ahead, as the White House aims to squeeze Iranian oil exports to zero and slap a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico.

Wall Street Banks Adjust Their Oil Forecasts

Major Wall Street banks are adjusting their expectations accordingly—but that was before Tuesday’s crackdown on Iran.

According to a Wall Street Journal survey—which includes projections from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley—Brent is now expected to average $73.01 per barrel in 2025, while WTI is forecast at $68.96. This is an increase from the previous estimates, but the expectations are still below $80.

Goldman Sachs notes that while Trump’s policies may initially tighten the oil market, his broader push for energy independence could keep a lid on long-term prices. “U.S. policy risks reinforce our view that the risks to our $70-$85 Brent range forecast are skewed to the upside in the short term, but to the downside in the medium-term because of high spare capacity and because broad tariffs could hurt demand,” Goldman analysts said.

The Iran Factor: Maximum Pressure Returns

Trump’s latest move against Iran could be a game-changer. His administration is reviving the “maximum pressure” campaign, aiming to cut off Tehran’s crude sales entirely. If successful, this could eliminate up to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) from the global market, primarily exports to China.

This is not the first time Trump has taken such an approach. When his administration ramped up sanctions on Iran in 2018, oil prices surged beyond $80 per barrel. The market remembers, and traders are once again watching closely to see if Washington follows through with secondary sanctions—restrictions that would punish countries and companies that continue to buy Iranian crude.

Of course, oil traders are not new to this game. Iran has been adept at skirting sanctions through ship-to-ship transfers and sales to intermediaries in China. But a serious U.S. crackdown could change the equation, especially if Washington actually gets aggressive with enforcement.

Tariff Turmoil: Will Canadian and Mexican Oil Be Targeted?

At the same time, Trump’s tariff war is making investors nervous. His tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, which was supposed to take effect last weekend, was expected to havoc on North American energy flows, sending oil prices higher. Canada supplies nearly 4 million bpd to U.S. refiners, making it America’s top crude supplier. Mexico contributes another 500,000 bpd. The tariffs, however, were paused after concessions given by the two countries—although the pause is for now only for a month.

Related: Back in Iraq: BP Puts $25B On the Table

Leading up to the tariffs, the question was, would oil be included in the tariff list? If so, it would significantly disrupt refining margins, particularly in the Midwest, which is heavily dependent on Canadian heavy crude. Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly has already warned that U.S. refiners might have to pivot to Venezuelan crude—an ironic twist given Trump’s efforts to isolate Venezuela. Ultimately, the tariff on Canadian oil was only 10% instead of the feared 25%.

Goldman Sachs believes policymakers will do what they must to avoid Brent prices soaring above $85 per barrel, as this would push U.S. gasoline prices past the politically sensitive $3.50 per gallon mark. However, if Canadian and Mexican crude become costlier due to tariffs, refiners will be forced to look elsewhere, potentially tightening the market and driving up fuel costs.

More Uncertainty Ahead

Here’s another wrinkle: Trump has hinted at tougher sanctions on Russia, too, potentially targeting its oil exports. Russia is still a major crude supplier to global markets.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration had previously signaled openness to allowing Chevron to continue limited operations in Venezuela, but a policy reversal could once again restrict Venezuelan oil from reaching the U.S. This would further tighten the supply picture, particularly for Gulf Coast refiners that rely on heavier crude grades.

The Fed, The Dollar, and Demand Concerns

Beyond the world of geopolitics, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance also has a role to play in the oil market, making it even more difficult for the prognosticators to pinpoint just where oil is headed.

Hopes of an imminent cut were dashed when the Fed recently decided to keep rates steady. Higher rates generally strengthen the U.S. dollar—making oil more expensive for foreign buyers. If rates remain high, demand could take a hit.

There are also lingering concerns about China’s economy, which has shown signs of slowing. As the world’s largest oil importer, any sustained weakness in Chinese demand could cap price gains. Goldman Sachs has noted that while U.S. sanctions and tariffs may push prices higher in the short term, demand-side risks could limit long-term upside.

Where Do Oil Prices Go From Here?

Right now, oil markets are caught between conflicting forces. Trump’s energy and trade policies are creating bullish supply risks, while demand uncertainties, OPEC+ decisions, and a strong dollar are acting as counterweights.

If the U.S. enforces strict sanctions on Iran and Russia, and tariffs disrupt North American supply chains, oil prices could easily breach the $80 mark again. But if OPEC+ increases production or economic concerns weigh on demand, prices may remain range-bound in the $70-$85 per barrel corridor that many analysts expect.

According to the WSJ survey, Brent was forecast at $75.33 in the first quarter, with estimates for $71.22 per barrel for WTI. The second quarter will see a drop to $74.02 and $70, respectively, and to $73.10 and $68.91 in the third, the survey showed.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Close Above 50-Day MA Will Confirm Strength

A reclaim of the 50-Day MA was a sign of strength but the next target was hit at $3.58, followed by intraday signs of resistance. If demand can be retained, then natural gas looks likely to at least tap the 20-Day MA at $3.60 to test it as resistance. Moreover, the 20-Day line is declining and will likely converge with today’s high at $3.58 soon.

If the 20-Day line continues to fall, it risks dropping below the 50-Day MA. That would be a sign of weakness. As noted above, a daily closing price above the 50-Day line would show greater strength than a close below it. And a stronger close increases the chance that the 20-Day MA can be reclaimed as well.

Sustained Resistance at 50-Day MA Could Lead to Pullback

If the price area around the 50-Day MA continues to show signs of resistance, a bearish pullback to test support levels becomes a possibility. There are a couple key price levels to watch if that is the case. There is a minor swing low at $3.30 from last Friday, which is followed by a more significant swing low at $3.16.

That $3.16 swing low is more significant given its importance to the rising trend structure of higher swing lows and higher swing highs. It is marked (C) as a prime component of the rising ABCD pattern. Also, notice the small rising trendline marking dynamic support rising from the $2.99 swing low (A). That line can be watched for initial signs of weakness. As it looks now, today’s low at $3.43 can be used as a proxy for the trendline.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Oil prices are showing surprising resilience despite trade war fears, buoyed by ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil supplies.
• The EIA has raised its 2025 forecast for US oil production.
• A host of factors are influencing Oil price dynamics and is likely to keep market participants guessing.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook: $3000/oz Target Possible as Safe Haven Demand Rises

Oil prices continued their recovery today running into a key resistance level. The rise in Oil prices this week has surprised me given the trade war fears which have weighed on overall market sentiment.

In a similar vein to what we are seeing with Gold prices where tariffs should be negative, prices continue to rise. It appears that other influences are balancing out this risk. Similarly, with Oil prices, tariffs raise concerns about lower demand, but this is being offset by tighter sanctions on Russian and Iranian Oil supplies.

Russia and Iran Sanctions Raise Supply Concerns

U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil are causing disruptions and increasing supply concerns. Restrictions on Russian oil shipments to China and India have been affected, impacting tankers, producers, and insurers. 

Meanwhile, sanctions on networks shipping Iranian Oil to China have added pressure, reinforcing the U.S.’s tough stance on Iranian exports. 

There were also reports in the media today regarding drone attacks on a Russian refinery plant in the Saratov region. The refinery in question is part of Rosneft, called Kreking, one of Russia’s oldest, has been affected. At the same time, Russia launched an overnight attack on Ukraine’s gas and power facilities, targeting its energy infrastructure. 

All of these developments are keeping oil prices supported for now.

EIA raises US oil production forecast for 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. oil production is expected to grow more this year than previously predicted. By 2025, they estimate production will average 13.59 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the earlier forecast of 13.55 million barrels per day. However, the EIA kept its prediction for U.S. oil and fuel demand unchanged at 20.5 million barrels per day in 2025.

The EIA expects Brent crude prices to average about $74 in 2025 before dropping to $66 in 2026, as production gradually increases and global demand remains weak. OPEC+ production cuts will lower global oil supplies and help keep prices steady through early 2025.

This is something which OPEC + themselves have reiterated many times. 

OPEC’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the group focuses on long-term plans for the global oil market, aiming to keep prices steady. His statement was made at the India Energy Week conference and followed repeated calls from U.S. President Donald Trump for OPEC to increase oil production to bring prices down.

The group is looking to gradually raise output from April, but with the US expected to increase production I still maintain that production cuts will remain in place in Q2 2025.

Inventories Data

US API data will be released in a short while with the EIA inventories data due out tomorrow. Markets are expecting 

The API forecast for crude oil stock changes is an increase of 2.8 million barrels, compared to the previous week’s larger build of 5.025 million barrels.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

Technical Analysis

This is a follow-up analysis of my prior report “Brent Crude Oil Analysis: Iran Tensions, OPEC+ and Price Trends” published on 4 February 2025.

From a technical analysis standpoint, Brent in enjoying its third successive day of gain but does face a significant handle around the 77.68 with another area of resistance just above at 78.19. 

The 14-day RSI has crossed above the 50-handle which is usually a sign that momentum has shifted to favor bulls.

Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart, February 11, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

When dropping down to a four-hour chart, the RSI has tapped into overbought territory which leaves the door open for a short-term pullback.

Supporting a bullish narrative is the fact that price is currently trading above both the 100 and 200-day MAs on a four-hour chart.

If price is to pullback, immediate support rests at 76.35 before support at the psychological 75.00 handle comes into focus.

Brent Crude Oil Four-Hour Chart, February 11, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

• 76.35
• 75.00 (psychological level)
• 73.47

Resistance

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Next Upside Target is $74.74

The next upside targets are the 200-Day MA at $74.74 and the 20-Day MA, now at $74.89. Notice that the 20-Day line is falling and close to converging with the 200-Day line. Each line presents potentially solid resistance on its own but more so if combined to identify a similar price area. Confirming the 200-Day line is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $74.69. Together, they put a bull’s eye on a price zone from $74.6 to $74.89 and increases the chance of the price zone being tested as resistance.

Strong Resistance Looks Likely Around $75.85

Higher price targets start with the 50% retracement at $75.85. That price area is confirmed by the interim swing high at $75.82. The swing high is part of the bearish price structure for the recent correction as it was a lower swing high, relative to the recent $80.76 peak. Once support is successfully tested at the lower end of the week’s range, as seen on Monday, a swing back toward the top of the range is possible. This would be similar behavior to what is seen inside a consolidation pattern.

Once one side of the pattern is tested as either support or resistance, and a reversal sets up, the other side of the pattern becomes a potential target. If crude follows through as it might, the top of the weekly range at $75.82 becomes a target. Since the week’s high gives credence to the 50% target zone, it is possible that it is eventually reached. Moreover, the 50-Week MA is also nearby at $76.02.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,903.97

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress, said nothing new to markets.
• The US January Consumer Price Index is expected to remain stable at 2.9% YoY.
• XAU/USD attracts buyers on dips, higher highs still likely.

Spot Gold peaked at $2,942.76 early on Tuesday, reaching yet another record high before giving up. The bright metal fell towards $2,880 early in the American session but quickly recovered the $2,900 mark, trading above it as the session progressed.

The US Dollar (USD) lost its recent attractiveness across the FX board despite a cautious mood that prevailed throughout the day, once again correcting lower after a strong start to the week.

Asian and European traders held cautious ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance before Congress. Powell, who testified on monetary policy, repeated much of what he said after the January Fed monetary policy meeting. Powell said policymakers are in no hurry to adjust the monetary policy and would like to make more progress on inflation. He also added that the economy was in a “pretty good place” and refused to comment on tariffs.

His words brought some relief to financial markets, helping Wall Street to trim most of its early losses while reviving the USD’s weakness.

Powell will repeat his testimony on Wednesday, although before a different commission. Additionally, the United States (US) will release the January Consumer Price Index (CPI), foreseen up by 2.9% from a year earlier, matching the December reading. The core annual advance is expected at 3.1%, slightly below the previous 3.2%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD remains bullish, yet overbought conditions suggest a corrective decline remains likely. In the daily chart, technical indicators are retreating just modestly while still developing within extreme levels. At the same time, the bright metal remains far above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly higher, yet currently at around $2,787.34, too far below the current level to be relevant.

XAU/USD corrected overbought conditions in the near term and could resume its advance from here. The 4-hour chart shows buyers added longs in the intraday dip towards a bullish 20 SMA, now providing dynamic support at around $2,883.50. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, maintain their strong upward slopes far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators corrected extreme overbought readings but turned flat above their midlines, reflecting buying interest surging on price retracements.

Support levels: 2,883.50 2,872.30 2,855.45

Resistance levels: 2,911.60 2,925.00 2,940.00

Home Depot’s stock price (HD) rose in the intraday levels, after leaning on the support of the 50-day SMA, lending the stock positive momentum, amid the dominance of the main upward trend, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line, with positive signals from the RSI after reaching oversold levels. 

Therefore we expect more gains for the stock, targeting the pivotal resistance of $440.97, provided the support of $401.76 holds on.

Trend forecast for today: Bullish 

• Silver price loses ground despite safe-haven demand following US tariffs.
• Trump’s 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports heightens the threat of a wider trade dispute.
• Safe-haven demand increases as Middle East tensions escalate, following Trump’s call for Israel to end its ceasefire with Hamas.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent gains, trading around $31.80 per troy ounce during the European session on Tuesday. However, the downside of the metal price could be restrained as safe-haven demand for precious metals surged amid increased risk aversion following the latest US tariffs.

US President Donald Trump imposed a flat 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports on Monday, removing all exemptions and nullifying previous trade agreements with key United States (US) allies. The move is intended to support struggling domestic industries but increases the risk of a broader trade conflict.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could support the prices of the safe-haven Silver. President Trump has urged Israel to end its ceasefire with Hamas if hostages are not returned by the weekend, increasing the risk of renewed conflict as both sides accuse each other of violating the agreement.

However, the demand for non-interest-bearing Silver could face challenges as higher interest rates in the United States (US) could last longer. A Reuters poll of economists suggests the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may postpone interest rate cuts until next quarter due to inflation concerns. Many analysts who had anticipated a rate cut in March have now adjusted their forecasts, with most predicting at least one cut by June.

Investors await the release of the latest US inflation figures and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this week, which could influence the outlook for US monetary policy.

Texas Instruments’ stock price (TXN) fell in the intraday levels, while preparing to pierce the pivotal support of $180.00, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the short term, coupled with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, and countered with positive signals from the RSI after reaching oversold levels, curbing upcoming losses. 

Therefore we expect more losses for the price, provided the aforementioned support of $180.00 was breached, thus targeting the next one at $166.90.

Trend forecast for today: Bearish 

• Silver reverses the previous day’s positive move, though it lacks follow-through.
• The setup supports prospects for an extension of over a one-month-old uptrend.
• Any meaningful slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and drops back closer to the overnight swing low, around the $31.65-$31.60 area. The white metal, however, trims a part of its intraday losses and currently trades just below the $32.00 mark, down 0.45% for the day. 

From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside. 

That said, repeated failures to find acceptance and build on momentum beyond the $32.30 barrier make it prudent to wait for a breakout through the short-term trading range before placing fresh bullish bets around the XAG/USD. The commodity might then surpass the $32.65 area, the monthly swing high touched last Friday, and aim to reclaim the $33.00 round figure for the first time since early November.

On the flip side, the $31.65-$31.60 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate support. Any further weakness below the said support could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the 100-day SMA, currently pegged around the $31.20-$31.15 zone. This is followed by the $31.00 mark, which, if broken decisively, might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses.

Silver daily chart

The EURJPY pair ended the recent negative attack by holding above the major support at 155.30, to notice reacting to stochastic attempt to exit the oversold areas by forming bullish wave and settle near 156.60.

The frequent stability above the mentioned support allows us to suggest the correctional bullish track to attempt to provide strong pressures on 157.25 barrier, while surpassing it will push the price to decrease its losses by rallying towards 158.50, while facing new negative pressures and crawling below 155.30 will confirm its preparation to resume the negative attack, to expect targeting the historical support at 154.40.

The expected trading range for today is between 155.80 and 157.25

Trend forecast: Bullish