The NZDUSD price provides more positive trades after surpassing the EMA50, waiting to test 0.5738$ as a next main target, which represents 23.6% Fibonacci correction level for the entire decline from 0.6377$ to 0.5540$, which means that breaching it will extend the bullish wave to reach 0.5860$ as a next positive station.
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Gold price consolidates recent gains above $2,850 early Thursday, awaits US data, Fedspeak.
Ebbing trade war fears, USD/JPY sell-off weigh on the US Dollar amid mixed US ISM and ADP data.
Gold price remains overbought on the daily time frame, risking a pullback in the near term.
Gold price extends its winning streak into a sixth straight day on Thursday, consolidating near record highs of $2,882 set on Wednesday.
Gold price sticks to record rally, with eyes on US jobs data
Sustained US Dollar (USD) weakness alongside the extended correction in the US Treasury bond yields continue to bode well for the non-yielding Gold price. The Greenback bears the brunt of receding fears of a potential global trade war after US President Donald Trump’s pushback on Canada and Mexico for a month while markets look past the US-Sino tariff war, expecting no further escalation.
Additionally, Trump’s plans to end the Israel-Hamas geopolitical conflict also provided a ray of hope to markets, diminishing the USD’s safe-haven appeal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump met on Tuesday at the White House and discussed the elimination of Hamas, Iran strategy and renewed Israel-Saudi normalization.
Furthermore, expectations of policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) drive the Japanese Yen to near two-month highs against the US Dollar, dragging USD/JPY sharply lower. The USD/JPY weakness remains a drag on the Greenback, allowing Gold price to maintain its buoyant tone.
According to the LSEG data, a quarter-point Fed cut is fully priced for July, with markets expecting 46.3 percentage points of cuts by the December meeting. Meanwhile, markets have priced in around 94.8% odds for a quarter-point hike by September.
With trade tensions in the back seat for now, attention turns to Friday’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could offer cues on the Fed’s next policy move. The NFP data could emerge as the main market driver for Gold price heading into next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
In the meantime, the US weekly Jobless Claims and Preliminary Unit Labor Cost will be eyed alongside the Fedspeak for some trading incentives in Gold price. Any fresh developments surrounding Trump’s tariff plans will likely temper the Gold price rally, reviving the haven demand for the USD.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart continues to caution Gold buyers as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in an extremely overbought zone, currently near 76.50.
That said, Gold price risks a pullback on a sustained move below the $2.850 level.
If the selling pressure intensifies, Gold price could challenge the $2,800 round level, below which the February 3 low of $2,772 will be tested.
However, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100-day SMA Bull Cross keep hopes alive for buyers, while Gold price also managed to close Wednesday above the $2,850 psychological barrier.
Gold buyers must take out the record highs of $2,882 for further upside. The next relevant target is aligned at the $3,000 round level.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Ethereum price (ETHUSD) got positive close above 2764.75$, noticing that the recent trades are confined within bullish pennant pattern that appears on the chart, which means that breaching 2825.00$ will activate the positive effect of this pattern and push the price to achieve our first waited target at 3017.30$.
Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaking 2764.75$ followed by 2715.00$ levels will stop the bullish wave and push the price to turn to decline.
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Brent oil price broke 75.66$ level clearly and closed the daily candlestick below it, to complete forming the head and shoulders’ pattern and get negative motive that supports the continuation of the expected bearish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, and we believe that the way is open to achieve our next target at 74.00$.
Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, taking into consideration that breaching 75.66$ followed by 76.00$ levels will stop the current negative pressure and push the price to achieve some gains before determining the next destination clearly.
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Ethereum price (ETHUSD) finds difficulty to hold above 2764.75$, to move below it now, noticing that stochastic gathers the positive momentum to support the chances to rise in the upcoming sessions and surpass the mentioned level again.
Therefore, we expect to witness positive trades today, and the price needs to breach 2764.75$ resistance to confirm heading towards 3017.30$ that represents our next main target, taking into consideration that failing to breach the mentioned resistance will put the price under additional negative pressure that its targets begin by testing 2480.00$ areas.
The expected trading range for today is between 2580.00$ support and 2890.00$ resistance.
United States data showed services output grew at a slower-than-anticipated pace in January.
Financial markets slowly moved away from panic selling, concerns remain in the background.
XAU/USD is bullish while overbought, speculative interest aims for $2,900.
Spot Gold’s rally to record highs continued on Wednesday, with XAU/USD trading as high as $2,882.34 during American trading hours. As it has been happening these days, demand for safety prevails amid mounting concerns related to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs. At the same time, the US Dollar (USD) has lost its attractiveness, with stock markets recovering and investors digesting the latest US data.
The latest US macroeconomic figures showed a solid labor market and softer-than-anticipated economic progress. On the one hand, the ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector added 183,000 new jobs in January, better than the 150,000 anticipated by market players and above the 122,000 gained in December.
On the other hand, the January ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose by 52.8, below the 54 posted in December and the expected 54.3. Other details of the report showed that the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component, dropped to 60.4 from 64.4, while the Employment Index edged higher to 52.3 from 51.3.
Meanwhile, Wall Street struggles to extend its recent recovery. Most Asian and European indexes closed in the green, but among US indexes, only the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the bullish momentum prevails despite overbought conditions, as technical indicators keep aiming north despite developing at extreme levels. At the same time, the pair advanced further above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading sharply higher at around $2,750.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the upside. Technical indicators have resumed their advances within overbought levels and after a limited retracement, suggesting buyers are still willing to add on dips. Finally, XAU/USD develops far above all bullish moving averages, with the shorter 20 SMA at around $2,825.
Support levels: 2,857.80 2,845.30 2,829.10
Resistance levels: 2,883.00 2,900.00 2,915.00
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Short-term resistance is at today’s high of $3.37 and support was at the low of the day, at $3.16. Despite the minor bullish indication from today’s price action, further consolidation within the day’s range is also possible. If the low of the day is broken to the downside, there is the possibility of a gap filling at $3.12. A rising trendline can also be watched for signs of support if recent lows are retested.
It is interesting to note that this week’s low, that was hit today, successfully found support around the 20-Week MA (not shown), which is $3.15. Notably, natural gas fell below the 20-Week MA last week and closed below it on a weekly basis. That was bearish price behavior. But the reclaim of the 20-Week line this week countered with bullish indications.
Weekly Bullish Sign
Therefore, support around $3.15 needs to continue to hold to confirm the bullish posture. Staying above the 20-Week line will provide another piece of bullish evidence, increasing the chance for a continuation of the bounce from last week’s low of $2.99. Regardless, natural gas is likely to complete this week as an inside week given last week’s wide trading range from $2.99 to $3.83.
Next Up is $3.51 Price Zone
A decisive breakout above Wednesday’s high of $3.37 points to higher targets for natural gas. The 50-Day MA at $3.52 is the next upside target where resistance may be seen. It is confirmed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.51. Since the 50-Day line had been dynamic support for the rising trend previously, until last Tuesday, there is a strong chance it will be tested as resistance at a minimum.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Affirm Holdings’ stock price (AFRM) slid in the intraday levels, amid negative pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA, with negative signals from the RSI after reaching overbought levels, as the stock tries to shake off these negative pressures, amid the dominance of the main upward trend, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line.
Therefore we expect the stock to return higher, targeting the pivotal resistance of $72.82, provided the support of $52.48 holds on.
Silver price gives up a majority of intraday gains after the release of the upbeat US private employment data for January.
Strong labor demand would force the Fed to maintain the status quo for longer.
Investors expect the trade war would be limited between the US and China.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surrenders almost its entire intraday gains and falls back to near $32.00 in Wednesday’s North American session. The white metal faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) attempts to gain ground on the back of upbeat United States (US) ADP Employment Change data for January. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, finds buyers’ demand near 107.40 but is still over 0.4% down intraday.
The agency reported that 183K new workers were hired by the private sector last month, which were significantly higher than estimates of 150K, and the prior release of 176K, revised significantly higher from 122K.
Signs of strong labor demand would force Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to keep interest rates at their current levels for longer. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that they will make monetary policy adjustments only after seeing “real progress in inflation or at least some weakness in labor market”. Technically, the Fed’s stance for keeping interest rates steady weighs on precious metals, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, investors are also doubting the Silver outlook amid receding fears of a lethal global trade war. Market participants expect the trade war to remain restricted between China and the US. Investors have interpreted President Donald trump’s tariff agenda as more a negotiating tool after his decision of suspending the order of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
While 10% tariffs on China have come into effect from February, and in retaliation, China has also imposed levies on the US.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price strives to break above the immediate resistance of $32.50, which is plotted from the December 9 high. The outlook of the white metal remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping higher near $30.90.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 60.00-80.00 range, suggesting that the momentum is bullish.
Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline from the August 8 low of $26.45 will be the key support for the Silver price around $29.50. While, the October 31 high of $33.90 will be the key barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Brent oil price crawls downwards calmly, and the technical indicators keep providing the negative signals, waiting for more decline to test 75.66$ initially, reminding you that breaking this level will push the price towards 74.00$ as a next target.
In general, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid and active for today unless the price rallied to breach 77.05$ and hold above it.
The expected trading range for today is between 74.90$ support and 77.90$ resistance.
