Yesterday’s high was the second lower swing high that has occurred since a bearish reversal followed the 4.37 trend high from last week. The day ended down and today’s drop below yesterday’s low of 3.86 earlier in the trading session marked it has a swing high.
There is a possibility that the lower swing high is retained and the developing small downtrend (countertrend decline) of lower swing highs may be setting the stage for a deeper correction. However, today’s bullish price action following a successful test of support at the 20-Day line and possibility of a strong close, leaves open the prospect of a continuation of Wednesday’s bounce off support at the 20-Day MA
Bullish Above 4.05
On the upside, a breakout above the 4.05 swing high will trigger a continuation of the bull advance from Wednesday’s low of 3.71. That low was also a higher swing low and now part of the price structure of the uptrend, which is also near support represented by the uptrend line.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where resistance might be seen, is at 4.09 and it is followed by the 78.6% retracement at 4.20. Moreover, there are two additional potential resistance areas. There is also a monthly high at 4.20, which provides confirmation for that price level as it matches the Fibonacci level.
Bearish Below 3.71
Outlook turns bearish if there is a drop below this week’s low at 3.71 as it is key trend support of a higher swing low. However, there is an identified potential support zone from around 3.70 and 3.64, which could either hold and lead to a bullish reversal, or natural gas breaks down through the zone and heads lower towards 3.53 or so.
Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) traded with clear positivity to reach the thresholds of the key resistance 106000.00$, and as we mentioned this morning, breaching this level will activate the positive effect of the bullish pennant pattern and lead the price to continue the bullish trend that targets 108350.45$ followed by 112000.00$ levels mainly.
On the other hand, we should note that breaking 101680.00$ will stop the bullish wave and push the price to decline towards 95195.00$ areas before any new attempt to rise.
The expected trading range for today is between 102000.00$ support and 108000.00$ resistance.
At 13:47 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.832, down $0.113 or -2.86%.
Is Weather Demand Losing Its Grip on Prices?
The latest outlook from NatGasWeather forecasts Arctic air to maintain strong natural gas demand through Friday, with subzero temperatures blanketing much of the interior U.S. and lows reaching the teens across the South. However, this demand will ease heading into the weekend as milder temperatures settle over the southern and eastern U.S., with highs climbing into the 40s-60s and even 70s in parts of Texas.
Looking further ahead, the weather pattern for early February appears less supportive, with mild conditions dominating key consuming regions. While frosty air will persist in the northern Rockies and Plains, it will not extend far enough south to drive significant demand. This milder outlook is weighing heavily on the market, keeping bullish sentiment in check despite a notable surplus-to-deficit shift in inventory balances this week.
Storage Report Undermines Bullish Momentum
The EIA’s latest storage report showed a draw of 223 Bcf for the week ending January 17, bringing total inventories to 2,892 Bcf. While this was 57 Bcf lower than the same time last year, it remained 21 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,871 Bcf.
Traders interpreted the smaller withdrawal as a sign of improving supply dynamics, especially as Lower 48 production remains robust. Meanwhile, easing heating demand is expected to prevent significant inventory depletion, keeping storage levels within the five-year historical range. These factors are adding downward pressure to prices and tempering bullish sentiment.
Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook
With forecasts pointing to milder weather across key regions and storage data reflecting improving supply conditions, natural gas prices are likely to face further downside in the near term.
Ethereum price (ETHUSD) shows positive trades after testing 3222.00$ in the previous sessions, to support the continuation of the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, waiting to visit 3425.50$ initially, noting that breaching this level will extend the bullish to reach 3678.00$ areas.
Holding above 3222.00$ is important to the continuation of the bullish trend, as breaking it represents the key to turn to decline to achieve additional bearish correction that its next target reaches 3017.30$ areas.
The expected trading range for today is between 3170.00$ support and 3450.00$ resistance.
The EURJPY pair failed to record any new positive target due to the continuous fluctuation below the additional resistance at 163.25, to notice forming mixed trades now by crawling towards 161.90 followed by settling near the MA55.
We expect to confine trades between the mentioned resistance and the additional support at 161.80, to stay neutral and wait to surpass one of the mentioned levels to manage to detect the next near-term and medium-term trend.
The expected trading range for today is between 161.80 and 163.25
Silver price advanced as President Trump expressed his desire for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates without delay.
Trump stated that he “would rather not have to use tariffs on China” and is hopeful about reaching a deal.
The demand for the precious Silver increases due to weaker US Dollar and Treasury yields.
Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its recent losses, trading around $30.80 per troy ounce during the Asian trading session on Friday. The demand for non-interest-bearing Silver rises following comments made by US President Donald Trump late Thursday.
Trump expressed his desire for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates without delay. “With Oil prices falling, I’ll demand that interest rates be cut immediately, and they should be reduced worldwide,” he said during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Additionally, industrial demand for Silver may have strengthened following US President Donald Trump’s comments about his preference to avoid tariffs on China, the world’s largest consumer of metals and a manufacturing hub. Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal with China after a conversation with President Xi Jinping on Thursday, suggesting potential progress in US-China trade negotiations.
Traders are likely to continue turning to safe-haven assets like Silver, remaining cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs and immigration policies. On Tuesday, Trump also announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with duties on the European Union.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s performance against six major currencies, continues to decline as US Treasury yields depreciate amid improved risk sentiment. The DXY has fallen below 107.00, with the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields standing at 4.26% and 4.63%, respectively, at the time of writing. This shift could be contributing to the uptrend in non-yielding metals like Silver, which are seeing increased appeal.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Natural gas price kept its stability within the bullish channel that its major support line located at 3.680$, to notice renewing the positive action by targeting 4.030$ barrier now, which formed the first target for the recent bullish overview.
Now, stochastic exit from the oversold areas will reinforce the chances of gathering the positive momentum to manage to surpass the current barrier and achieve additional gains by rallying towards 4.220$ followed by reaching the bullish channel’s resistance line at 4.420$.
The expected trading range for today is between 3.920$ and 4.220$
Crude oil price succeeded to achieve our first waited target at 75.53$, noticing that the price closed the last daily candlestick below it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the domination of the bearish correction to head towards visiting 73.90$ as a next main target.
Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, affected by the head and shoulders’ pattern that appears on the chart, taking into consideration that breaching 75.53$ and holding above it might push the price to start recovery attempts and achieve intraday gains that target testing 76.90$ followed by 77.53$ areas before any new attempt to decline.
The expected trading range for today is between 73.70$ support and 76.70$ resistance
Gold price consolidates near three-month top early Friday, eyes more upside.
Trump’s tariffs jitters and calls for a lower US Dollar underpin Gold price.
Gold price keeps sight of the symmetrical triangle target at $2,785 or record highs.
Gold price regains poise and gears up for another run higher early Friday after taking a breather on Thursday. Gold buyers flirt with three-month highs near $2,760, awaiting some clarity on US President Donald Trump’s trade policies and the S&P Global preliminary US business PMI data.
Gold price finds fresh buyers, aims for record highs
Gold price holds onto the recent upside, courtesy of its persistent appeal as a traditional safety asset as markets remain wary of Trump’s tariff and immigration policies and their impact on the economic outlook.
Earlier in the week, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union on February 1. However, no further clarity has been provided, leaving investors flocking to safety in the bright metal.
In his Word Economic Forum (WEF) virtual speech, the 47th US President called for a lower US Dollar (USD) and interest rates globally, acting as a headwind for the Greenback while rendering positive for the non-yielding Gold price.
Gold traders now eagerly await the global preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI reports for January, which could provide fresh insights into the economic prospects on both sides of the Atlantic. Disappointing data could revive global growth fears amid a looming trade war, spooking markets and driving safe-haven flows into the Gold price.
Further, a hawkish interest rate hike delivered by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could trigger a fresh USD/JPY slide-led USD weakness, supporting the Gold price upisde.
Despite a positive view of the Gold price, the metal could see some pullback late Friday as traders cash in on their long positions heading into next week’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision and the four-quarter US advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that the short-term technical outlook remains more or less the same for Gold price.
Gold price remains on track to test the record high of $2,790 or the symmetrical triangle target, measured at $2,785.
Gold price charted a symmetrical triangle breakout earlier this month while it holds comfortably above all the major daily simple moving averages (SMA), supporting the bullish case.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits beneath the overbought region, currently near 69, justifying the latest leg up.
Adding credence to the constructive outlook, the 50-day SMA closed above the 100-day SMA on Thursday, confirming a Bear Cross.
Gold price must seek a daily closing above the November 2024 high of $2,762 to take on the next target near the aforementioned resistance near $2,790.
Alternatively, Gold price could test the previous day’s low of $2,736 if the pullback sets in.
Sellers will then aim for the $2,700 round level, below which the 21-day SMA at $2,678 will be threatened.
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Trading remains within a rough two-week trading range reflecting some degree of consolidation near trend highs. Therefore, volatility may stay muted and choppy for the time being. Today could be a rest day following the bounce yesterday from the 20-Day MA (3.80) support zone that includes the day’s low at 3.71, now a higher swing low. That low is now part of the price structure of higher swing highs and higher swing lows pertaining to the rising trend.
Above 4.05 Shows Strength
A rally above today’s high of 4.05 will signal strength and the possibility of testing higher resistance levels. The 61.8% retracement of the most recent downswing is at 4.09, while a monthly high from December is at 4.20. There is confirmation of the monthly high at the 78.6% retracement, also at 4.20. Resistance could be seen around either of those price areas.
Higher up is a significant price level, a lower swing high and double top at 4.33. That swing high was a little shy of the recent trend high at 4.37. An advance above 4.33 would be needed before there was a clear bullish continuation signal for the trend. Until then the expectation is for resistance to be seen and further fluctuations within a range.
Key Support at 3.71
Nonetheless, a sign of weakening would first be indicated on a drop below this week’s low at 3.71. There is subsequently an identified potential support zone down to 3.64. Consequently, the 3.64 should provide a more significant price level as a drop below it looks like it leads to a lower potential support zone from 3.52 to 3.51. The lower price level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
