• Silver price plunges to near $30.00 as US President Trump delays tariff hikes.
• A delay in Trump tariff plans and hopes of a Russia-Ukraine truce have improved the market mood.
• The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Silver price (XAG/USD) dives an almost 1.75% to near $30.00 in North American trading hours on Thursday. The white metal has been hit hard as the overall market sentiment has broadly stabilized. The market mood has become favorable for risk-perceived assets as United States (US) President Donald Trump has not imposed tariff hikes yet, while he was anticipated to do the same right on his first day at work.

Donald Trump has commented that he is considering 25% tariff hikes on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China that will come into effect from February 1. His presidential memo also suggested that tariffs are not coming swiftly, and he directed federal agencies to study trade policies and evaluate trade relationships. No concrete announcement of tariff hikes has eased the risk-aversion mood as market participants expect Trump’s tariff policy implementation will be more gradual than feared.

Apart from growing expectations that Russia might have a truce with Ukraine, it has also trimmed the risk premium of precious metals. Trump has threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if he continues the war with Ukraine.

Historically, the safe-haven demand for precious metals, such as Silver, diminishes in a stable risk environment.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly after gaining ground post refreshing the two-week low of 107.75. The US Dollar (USD) is expected to remain broadly sideways, with investors awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed is almost certain to announce a pause to the current policy-easing spell and leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price falls back to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $30.25 after failing to break above the upward-sloping trendline around $30.90, which is plotted from 29 February 2024 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe.

The broader outlook of the Silver price remains firm above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $29.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Silver daily chart

Gold price hovers around the bullish channel’s resistance line and still below it, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid and active for today, waiting to head towards 2707.00$ as a next main target.

We remind you that breaking 2744.00$ is required to reinforce the expectations to decline, which will remain valid unless breaching 2755.00$ and holding above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 2730.00$ support and 2765.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bearish

Crude oil price shows positive trades now, and it might head to test 77.53$ again before turning back to decline.

Until now, we still suggest the continuation of the correctional bearish trend affected by the previously completed head and shoulders’ pattern, reminding you that our targets begin at 75.53$ and extend to 73.90$ after breaking the previous level.

The expected trading range for today is between 74.60$ support and 77.60$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold prices halt a three-day positive streak, keeping the trade near $2,750.
• The US Dollar navigates without clear direction amid tariff uncertainty.
• Investors continue to wait for further details on Trump’s trade policies.

Gold (XAU/USD) fails to extend its weekly rally on Thursday, coming under some renewed selling pressure following three consecutive days of gains.

Indeed, the precious metal surged past $2,760 per troy ounce for the first time since early November on Wednesday, driven by persistent uncertainty surrounding announcements from United States (US) President Donald Trump, particularly his stance on tariffs. 

However, the rally wasn’t without its hurdles. The US Dollar (USD) regained some of its strength, with the Dollar Index (DXY) bouncing off multi-week lows and reaching two-day highs near the key 108.00 milestone. This was in the context of further recovery in US yields across the board. 

Despite the yellow metal’s retracement, President Trump’s still unclear plans to impose tariffs on the European Union, Canada, Mexico, and Chinese imports appear to underpin the metal for the time being.

Gold’s balancing act amid trade and inflation concerns 

Still around tariffs, Trump’s tariff-driven policies could complicate Gold’s outlook. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, analysts warn that if tariffs fuel higher inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) might be forced to maintain elevated interest rates for a longer period. This could dampen the metal’s appeal, as the non-yielding asset tends to lose favour in a high-rate environment. 

What’s next for Gold? 

In the short term, market attention will remain focused on developments from the White House, especially given the lighter economic calendar this week. Investors are also gearing up for the FOMC January 28–29 meeting, where rates are expected to hold steady in the 4.25%–4.50% range. 

As political uncertainty lingers and central bank decisions loom, gold’s position as a safe-haven asset could continue to attract attention.

Gold’s technical picture 

On the technical front, gold’s next major resistance level lies at $2,763, the 2025 high reached on January 22. A break above this level could see traders eyeing the all-time top of $2,790, recorded on October 31. Beyond these levels, Fibonacci extensions of the 2024 rally suggest potential targets at $3,009, $3,123, and $3,288. 

On the downside, key support levels include December’s low of $2,582, November’s low of $2,536, and the 200-day moving average at $2,517. A deeper correction could test $2,471 (September low) ahead of $2,353 (July’s weekly low). 

In the event of a more significant selloff, traders should watch for levels near $2,286 (June low) and $2,277 (May low). The ultimate downside target for now stands at $1,984, the lowest level hit in 2024.

Gold daily chart

Natural gas price kept its stability within the bullish channel that its major support line located at 3.680$, to notice renewing the positive action by targeting 4.030$ barrier now, which formed the first target for the recent bullish overview.

Now, stochastic exit from the oversold areas will reinforce the chances of gathering the positive momentum to manage to surpass the current barrier and achieve additional gains by rallying towards 4.220$ followed by reaching the bullish channel’s resistance line at 4.420$.

The expected trading range for today is between 3.920$ and 4.220$

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price failed to activate the bullish attack yesterday, affected by the MA55 that keeps forming additional barrier by settling near 955.00$, to notice forming some negative trades by fluctuating near 945.00$.

We expect to witness instability due to the continuous contradiction between the major indicators until achieving the required breach to manage to record new gains by rallying towards 983.00$ and 1005.00$ levels, noting that it is important to hold above 920.00$ support line to avoid any losses that might appear due to changing the bullish track.

The expected trading range for today is between 935.00$ and 955.00$

Trend forecast: Sideways

Platinum price failed to activate the bullish attack yesterday, affected by the MA55 that keeps forming additional barrier by settling near 955.00$, to notice forming some negative trades by fluctuating near 945.00$.

We expect to witness instability due to the continuous contradiction between the major indicators until achieving the required breach to manage to record new gains by rallying towards 983.00$ and 1005.00$ levels, noting that it is important to hold above 920.00$ support line to avoid any losses that might appear due to changing the bullish track.

The expected trading range for today is between 935.00$ and 955.00$

Trend forecast: Sideways

Created on January 23, 2025

• Unfortunately, most retail traders look at silver and gold through the same lens, but the recent price action is a good example of why that is not necessarily the case. As I look at the silver market right now, we are struggling a bit, but, at the same time, gold has broken above a significant resistance barrier. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see a bit of a potential “pairs trade”, buying gold and shorting silver. Currently, silver is in a bit of a pickle.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this pair is essentially sideways in the short term, but there are a lot of different things working against the price of silver right now. Therefore, you need to be cautious about buying in this market. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of questions asked of the $31 level above, which could of course be a major resistance barrier as it has been important a couple of times now. If we can break above the $31 level, the market is likely to continue to see buyers jump into the market, perhaps reaching the $32.35 level.

If we do break down from here, the market is likely going to look at the 50 Day EMA as a support level, and then of course after that, we have the $30 level offering a significant amount of support also. After that, then we have the 200 Day EMA, followed by the $28.75 level. This is an area where we have seen a little bit of a “double bottom” coming into the picture, so if we were to break down below that level, then I think silver really starts to fall apart.

All things being equal, the silver market is one that is heavily influenced by interest rates, and of course the stronger US dollar. Both of those are working against silver at the moment, so I think you’ve got a situation where we continue to see silver lag gold.

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Natural gas price kept its stability within the bullish channel that its major support line located at 3.680$, to notice renewing the positive action by targeting 4.030$ barrier now, which formed the first target for the recent bullish overview.

Now, stochastic exit from the oversold areas will reinforce the chances of gathering the positive momentum to manage to surpass the current barrier and achieve additional gains by rallying towards 4.220$ followed by reaching the bullish channel’s resistance line at 4.420$.

The expected trading range for today is between 3.920$ and 4.220$

Trend forecast: Bullish

Gold price’s rise stopped near 2765.00$ level, to start bouncing bearishly after losing the positive momentum, as it returns to the bullish channel and trades below its resistance line, to hint starting bearish wave that targets visiting the mentioned channel’s support line, located now at 2707.00$.

Therefore, the bearish trend will be expected for today, and breaking 2744.00$ will ease the mission of achieving the suggested target, while breaching 2755.00$ will stop the suggested bearish wave and lead the price to resume the main bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 2730.00$ support and 2765.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bearish