Gold price’s rise stopped near 2765.00$ level, to start bouncing bearishly after losing the positive momentum, as it returns to the bullish channel and trades below its resistance line, to hint starting bearish wave that targets visiting the mentioned channel’s support line, located now at 2707.00$.
Therefore, the bearish trend will be expected for today, and breaking 2744.00$ will ease the mission of achieving the suggested target, while breaching 2755.00$ will stop the suggested bearish wave and lead the price to resume the main bullish trend again.
The expected trading range for today is between 2730.00$ support and 2765.00$ resistance.
It is notable that last week’s trend high of 4.37 ended with a bearish candlestick pattern and a closing price below the previous trend high of 4.20. This means that if today’s advance continues, and it looks like it will, there is a good size resistance zone to be encountered before a chance at new trend highs.
If correct, the expectation would be for a period of consolidation largely contained with support around the uptrend line and key resistance at the most recent swing high of 4.33. There are a couple of prior weekly price levels that may see resistance. They include 4.02, 4.06, and 4.41. Also, there is a monthly high at 4.20.
Drop Below 3.64 is Bearish
Nonetheless, a decisive decline below the 3.64 price level increases the risk for a deeper correction. In that case, a drop to a price zone from 3.52 to 3.51 looks likely. That zone includes the 127.2% extended target for a descending ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, respectively. A little lower is the 50-Day MA at 3.43. The 50-Day line is joined by the 3.39 prior peak from January 2024. If the 20-Day line fails to mark support, the 50-Day line becomes a target when considering moving average analysis.
Watch End of Month Relative Closing
On a monthly basis (not shown), natural gas has been progressing in a series of higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for five months. The closing price for the month may provide a clue to the strength of weakness of demand. Currently, the trading range for the month of January is 3.33 to 4.37, which puts the middle at 3.85.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
It is notable that last week’s trend high of 4.37 ended with a bearish candlestick pattern and a closing price below the previous trend high of 4.20. This means that if today’s advance continues, and it looks like it will, there is a good size resistance zone to be encountered before a chance at new trend highs.
If correct, the expectation would be for a period of consolidation largely contained with support around the uptrend line and key resistance at the most recent swing high of 4.33. There are a couple of prior weekly price levels that may see resistance. They include 4.02, 4.06, and 4.41. Also, there is a monthly high at 4.20.
Drop Below 3.64 is Bearish
Nonetheless, a decisive decline below the 3.64 price level increases the risk for a deeper correction. In that case, a drop to a price zone from 3.52 to 3.51 looks likely. That zone includes the 127.2% extended target for a descending ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, respectively. A little lower is the 50-Day MA at 3.43. The 50-Day line is joined by the 3.39 prior peak from January 2024. If the 20-Day line fails to mark support, the 50-Day line becomes a target when considering moving average analysis.
Watch End of Month Relative Closing
On a monthly basis (not shown), natural gas has been progressing in a series of higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows for five months. The closing price for the month may provide a clue to the strength of weakness of demand. Currently, the trading range for the month of January is 3.33 to 4.37, which puts the middle at 3.85.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver prices forecast, XAG/USD continues to trade above the $30.50 mark, hovering close to its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Silver, often seen as a safe-haven asset, has displayed strong resilience in recent trading sessions. Currently, XAG/USD is maintaining its position above $30.50, a critical psychological level that traders are closely monitoring. This article delves into the factors influencing silver prices, the technical outlook for XAG/USD, and what investors can expect in the coming weeks.
Current Market Overview
As of now, silver is trading above the $30.50 threshold, supported by several macroeconomic factors. The ongoing geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and shifts in monetary policy continue to create a favorable environment for precious metals, including silver.
Geopolitical uncertainties often drive investors towards safe-haven assets like silver and gold. Recent developments in various global hotspots have heightened market anxiety, prompting investors to seek refuge in precious metals. The ongoing conflicts and trade tensions have not only impacted investor sentiment but also contributed to fluctuations in the value of fiat currencies, further bolstering demand for silver.
Inflation remains a significant concern for many economies worldwide. Rising prices for goods and services have prompted central banks to reassess their monetary policies. In such environments, precious metals are traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, which is another factor propelling silver prices higher.
Interest Rate Environment
The Fed interest rate landscape is crucial in determining the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like silver. Current expectations suggest that central banks may adopt a more cautious approach to rate hikes, especially amid growing concerns about economic slowdowns. Lower interest rates typically benefit precious metals as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding them, making silver more appealing to investors.
Technical Analysis of XAG/USD
Key Support and Resistance Levels On the technical front, XAG/USD’s ability to hold above the $30.50 level is significant. This area serves as both a psychological support level and a technical benchmark. Traders will be looking for signs of consolidation above this level to confirm bullish momentum.
Support Level: The $30.50 mark is a crucial support level. A sustained breach below this could signal a shift in sentiment, leading to further declines.
Resistance Level: On the upside, key resistance is around $31.50. A breakout above this level could pave the way for further gains, potentially targeting the $32.00 region.
Moving Averages
The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently acting as a dynamic support level for XAG/USD. The alignment of the price above this EMA indicates that bullish momentum may persist in the near term. Traders often look for crossovers to identify potential trend reversals or continuations, making the EMA a critical tool in their analysis.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), can provide insights into the strength of the current trend. If the RSI remains above the 50 level, it suggests that the bullish trend is intact. However, if it approaches overbought territory (above 70), it may indicate a potential pullback.
Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior
Bullish Sentiment Market sentiment around silver remains predominantly bullish, driven by the factors discussed earlier. Traders are increasingly optimistic about silver’s potential to outperform in the current economic climate. The combination of geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and a supportive interest rate environment has created a favorable backdrop for silver investment.
Institutional Interest Institutional investors have also been showing a renewed interest in silver. As more funds allocate capital towards precious metals, this influx of institutional money could provide additional support for prices. Furthermore, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on silver have seen increased inflows, reflecting growing confidence among investors.
Retail Investor Activity Retail investors are also becoming more active in the silver market, particularly as prices hold steady above essential support levels. The accessibility of trading platforms and the availability of silver-related investment products have made it easier for individual investors to participate in this market.
Future Outlook for XAG/USD
In the short term, XAG/USD is likely to remain influenced by ongoing economic data releases and geopolitical developments. Key economic indicators, including inflation rates and employment data, will be closely watched as they could impact central bank policies and, consequently, silver prices.
Positive Scenario: If inflation continues to rise and geopolitical tensions escalate, silver could break above the $31.50 resistance level, paving the way for further gains.
Negative Scenario: Conversely, if economic data suggests a stronger-than-expected recovery, leading to a more aggressive rate hike stance from central banks, silver may struggle to maintain its current levels.
Long-Term Considerations
Looking further ahead, several factors could shape the long-term outlook for silver prices: Sustainable Inflation: If inflation proves to be persistent, silver may continue to gain traction as a hedge. Green Energy Demand: The growing emphasis on renewable energy and electric vehicles could drive increased demand for silver, which is used in various applications, including solar panels and batteries. Central Bank Policies: Ongoing adjustments in monetary policy will be crucial. A shift towards dovish policies may provide further support for silver prices.
Conclusion
In summary, XAG/USD’s ability to hold above the $30.50 mark, coupled with supportive technical indicators, presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for silver prices. Geopolitical tensions, inflationary concerns, and a favorable interest rate environment are all contributing to a bullish sentiment around silver.
Investors should remain vigilant, monitoring both technical levels and macroeconomic developments, as these factors will undoubtedly influence the trajectory of silver prices in the coming weeks and months. As always, prudent risk management and a well-defined investment strategy will be essential for navigating the complexities of the silver market.
When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.
Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
3M’s stock price (MMM) rallied in the intraday levels, accompanied by a surge in trading volumes, while managing to pierce the pivotal resistance of $141.45, amid the dominance of the main upward trend in the medium term, with positive pressure due to trading above the 50-day SMA, countered with negative signals from the RSI after reaching overbought levels.
Therefore we expect more gains for the stock, provided it settles firmly above $141.45, targeting the resistance of $168.54.
Gold prices kept the bullish bias above the $2,760 mark on Wednesday.
The US Dollar regained the smile amid mixed US yields.
Steady uncertainty around Trump’s policies seems to benefit the metal.
Gold Extends gains amid tariff concerns
Gold (XAU/USD) continued its weekly rally on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive day of gains. The precious metal climbed above $2,760 per troy ounce for the firdt time since early November, driven by persistent unceratainty surrounding President Trump’s announcements, particulalry regarding to tariffs.
Somewhat limiting the metal’s appeal, the US Dollar (USD) regained part of its shine lost as of late, with the Dollar Index (DXY) regaining upside traction and bouncing off recent multi-week lows, while US yields traded in a mixed fashion across various maturity periods.
Still around Trump, he announced plans to impose tariffs on the European Union, Canada and Mexico, and revealed that his administration was considering a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The move, he claimed, was in response to fentanyl being trafficked from China to the United States through Mexico and Canada.
However, these policies could complicate the outlook for the yellow metal. While gold is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, analysts believe that if Trump’s tariff-driven policies stoke inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) might be forced to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period, dampening gold’s appeal, as it is a non-yielding asset and tends to lose its shine in a high-rate environment.
What’s next for Gold?
Looking ahead, the market’s focus will likely remain on developments from the White House, especially in a light week for major economic data releases. Investors are also preparing for the Fed’s January 28–29 meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to stay in their 4.25%-4.50% range.
As political uncertainty and central bank decisions loom large, gold remains a key asset to watch, with volatility likely on the horizon.
Gold’s Technical Outlook
In the near term, gold’s next major resistance is $2,763, the 2025 high reached on January 22. Beyond that, traders will target the all-time high of $2,790, recorded on October 31. If these levels are surpassed, Fibonacci projections suggest further upside milestones at $3,009, $3,123, and $3,288.
On the downside, key support levels include December’s low of $2,582, November’s low of $2,536, and the 200-day moving average at $2,515. Deeper corrections could push prices toward $2,471 (the September low) or even $2,353 (July’s weekly low).
Should a significant selloff occur, watch for levels around $2,286 (June low) and $2,277 (May low). The ultimate downside target for now stands at $1,984, the February 2024 low—a substantial retracement from current prices.
Silver price extends its upside to near $31.00 amid a sell-off in the US Dollar.
The Greenback faces pressure as Trump has announced lower tariffs on China than expected.
The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady in the next three policy meetings.
Silver price (XAG/USD) reclaims a more-than-a-month high of $30.95 in Wednesday’s European session. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) extends its downside due to less-fearful tariff plans announced by United States (US) President Donald Trump in his first two days of administration.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, refreshes a two-week low at 107.80. The lower US Dollar makes the Silver price inexpensive for investors. 10-year US Treasury yields tick lower to near 4.57%.
Trump has announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and is discussing 10% tariffs on China from February 1. However, his comments during the election campaign indicated that the tariffs would be much higher than what he actually announced.
Lower tariffs by Trump would also weigh on market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at their current levels for longer. Market participants were anticipating that higher tariffs would increase demand for domestically produced goods and services. This scenario would have accelerated inflationary pressures.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are confident that the Fed will keep its key borrowing rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in the coming three policy meetings.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price gathers strength to return above the north-side sloping trendline near $30.85, which is plotted from the 29 February 2024 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe.
The white metal discovered strong buying interest near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around $29.45, and has now extended its upside above the 20-day EMA, which is around $30.26. This suggests that the overall trend has turned bullish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if it manages to break above 60.00.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Lumen Technologies’ stock price (LUMN) returned lower in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the short term, with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, coupled with negative signals from the RSI after reaching overbought levels compared to the stock’s movements, hinting at negative divergence.
Therefore we expect more losses for the stock, provided it settles firmly below the resistance of $5.90, and targeting the support of $4.52.
Subsequently, a bearish weekly reversal triggered today, Tuesday, as crude fell below last week’s low of 77.30. This was the first time in seven weeks that a prior weekly low was broken to the downside and reflects the possibility that crude may have topped for now and heading into a correction. Nonetheless, support for the day was seen at 76.15 and it was followed by an intraday bounce. Interesting to see support was seen at the intersection of two trendlines.
Both the longer-term rising line across the bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern and the more recent rising trendline for the near-term uptrend. Further, the 50-Week MA (not shown) is at 76.37, also in today’s support zone. Crude oil closed above the 50-Week line for the first time since July 2024 two weeks ago. This is the first pullback to test the 50-Week line as support.
Reaches Key Initial Support
It is possible that today’s low completes a pullback before crude is ready to proceed higher. If that is the case, then a decisive breakout above today’s high of 78.32 would provide a daily bullish reversal signal. The first barrier then confronted would be last week’s high of 80.76. If that high can be exceeded and crude stays above it, a breakout above the trendline and triangle formation will be confirmed.
Drop Below 76.15, Short-term Bearish
Otherwise, the expectation is for a deeper pullback first. A decline below today’s low of 76.15 would trigger a bearish continuation of the retracement. Price areas to watch for support on the way down include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 200-Day MA at 75.54 and 75.42, respectively. A little lower is the 20-Day MA at 74.75 and the 50% retracement at 73.93.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Gold price sits at two-month highs at $2,750, eyes more upside.
Trump’s tariff threats on China revive haven demand for the US Dollar and Gold price.
Technically, Gold price aims for the symmetrical triangle target at $2,785 or record highs.
Gold price extends its three-day bullish momentum into Wednesday, hitting the highest level in two months at $2,750. A renewed risk-aversion wave appears to put a fresh bid under the Gold price as markets digest US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats.
Gold price benefits from trade war fears
Citing President Trump, Reuters reported earlier in the Asian session, “we are talking about a 10% tariff on China because they sell fentanyl.” Trump said the tariffs will be effective from February 1. He added that the “European Union will be in for tariffs.”
Risk sentiment turned soured as trade war fears intensified on these threats, with Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang warning that there are “no winners” in a trade war, speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on Tuesday. The sell-off in Chinese stocks on looming US tariffs revived the flight to safety theme, lifting the safe havens – the US Dollar and the Gold price.
However, it remains to be seen if Gold price sustains the three-day winning streak as risk flows could return as most of these tariffs announced by Trump were priced in, while traders could cheer the US President’s announcement of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investment. Late Tuesday, Trump announced that OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle will form a joint venture called Stargate and invest up to $500 billion in AI infrastructure.
Meanwhile, “streaming giant Netflix on January 21 released its October-December quarter results, reporting that it added close to 19 million subscribers during the holiday period to surpass 300 million subs in total,” AFP reported. This news could also comfort investors amid mounting trade war fears.
Furthermore, the tepid recovery in the US Treasury bond yields could outweigh the dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations, capping the upside in the non-yielding Gold price. Markets are pricing in a total easing of 37 basis points (bps) from the Fed this year, with the first-rate cut not fully priced until July, per Refinitive.
That said, fresh tariffs talks and policies from Trump will likely play a pivotal role in impacting the broad market sentiment, eventually influencing the USD and the Gold price.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that Gold price remains on track to test the record high of $2,790 or the symmetrical triangle target, measured at $2,785.
Gold price charted a symmetrical triangle breakout earlier this month while it holds comfortably above all the major daily simple moving averages (SMA), supporting the bullish case.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to grind higher above the midline, currently near 67, keeping buyers hopeful.
Gold price must scale the $2,750 psychological barrier on a daily closing basis to challenge the November 2024 high of $2,762.
The next target is aligned near the aforementioned resistance near $2,790.
On the flip side, Gold price could test the $2,700 round level, below which the 21-day SMA at $2,666 will be threatened.
The 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA converge at $2,650 seems to be the last line of defense for Gold buyers.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
