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After hitting a weekly peak of $4,165 on Wednesday, Gold turned south and currently changes hands at around $4,050 a troy ounce. The US Dollar (USD) resumed rallying on the back of inflation fears linked to the escalation of the Middle East conflict.
The Houthis, an Islamic political and military faction that controls part of Yemen, declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for airstrikes at the Sanaa airport, and shot Saudi vessels. In return, United States (US) President Donald Trump threatened “major military punishment,” pushing the odds for a conflict resolution. Later in the day, President Trump announced he was considering a massive attack “greater than anything before,” further fueling USD demand.
Meanwhile, the US reported that Initial Jobless Claims declined in the week ending July 18 to 187K from the 209K from the previous one, also easing from the previous 212K. Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its decision on monetary policy. The central bank left rates unchanged, as widely anticipated, while policymakers noted that uncertainty remains high “and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out.” Officials also reiterated that they are well-positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict.
Friday will bring the preliminary estimates of the July S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for most major economies. The business activity indicators are likely to trigger some near-term noise, while softer-than-anticipated expansion is likely to feed the dismal mood and hence push the Greenback even higher.
Technically, the four-hour chart shows that XAU/USD has turned bearish in the near term as it sits beneath the main moving averages. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,079.33, the 20-period SMA at $4,081.89 and the 200-period SMA at $4,117.30 all align overhead as a layered supply band that caps recovery attempts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers at 44, while the Momentum indicator turned flat around its midline, reflecting fading downside conviction after the sharp intraday retracement.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish tone as spot price remains under the key moving averages. Gold is below the 20-day SMA at $4,070.44, while the 100-day SMA at $4,490.36 and the 200-day SMA at $4,495.63 stay well above price, suggesting the broader trend remains capped. Momentum is soft, with the 14-period Momentum indicator in negative territory and the RSI indicator hovering near 45, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-period SMA at $4,079.33, followed closely by the 20-period SMA at $4,081.89, forming a tight cluster that bulls would need to clear to ease short-term pressure. A more significant barrier emerges at the 200-period SMA at $4,117.30, followed by the weekly top at $ 4,165. Support, on the other hand, lays at $4,000, followed by the June monthly low at $3,941.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Platinum price provided positive closes above $1605.00 level, attempting to confirm the bullish corrective scenario, to rally towards $1655.00 level, confirming the bullish corrective scenario, to rally towards $1655.00 level, benefiting from the continuation of providing positive momentum by stochastic rally above 50 level in the last period.
We expect renewing the bullish attempts in the current period, pushing the barrier at $1690.00 to form initial target for the current trading, and surpassing it will extend the trading towards $1740.00 reaching $1790.00 resstance.
The expected trading range for today is between $1620.00 and $1690.00
Trend forecast: Bullish
Domestic coffee prices today
Coffee prices today in the domestic market simultaneously decreased sharply in key production areas. According to the morning update on July 23, the purchase price fluctuated in the range of 96. 400-96. 800 VND/kg, a common decrease of 1,700-1,900 VND/kg compared to the previous session.
In Dak Lak, coffee prices decreased by 1,900 VND/kg, down to 96,600 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong, coffee prices today decreased by 1,900 VND/kg, to 96,400 VND/kg. This is the lowest level among the surveyed areas.
In Gia Lai, coffee prices decreased by 1,700 VND/kg, down to 96,800 VND/kg.
The old Dak Nong area also recorded a purchase price of 96,800 VND/kg, down 1,700 VND/kg compared to the previous session.
World coffee prices
In the world market, coffee prices simultaneously decreased in the most recent session.
On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures fell 66 USD/ton, equivalent to 1.70%, to 3,818 USD/ton. The November 2026 futures fell 52 USD/ton, to 3,799 USD/ton. The January and March 2027 futures fell 45 USD/ton and 43 USD/ton respectively.
On the New York exchange, Arabica September 2026 futures fell 2.45 US cents/lb, equivalent to 0.75%, to 322.10 US cents/lb. December 2026 futures fell 1.55 US cents/lb, to 307.90 US cents/lb. Further forwards also decreased slightly.
This development shows that domestic coffee prices are being affected by adjustments on both international exchanges.
Coffee price assessment
Coffee prices today decreased in the context of Robusta and Arabica prices in the world both going down. The decrease range of Robusta is stronger than Arabica, creating clearer pressure on the domestic market because Vietnam is a major Robusta producer.
From a global market perspective, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that the average ICO aggregate price index in June 2026 reached 248.90 US cents/lb, down 2.8% compared to May 2026. ICO’s report shows that the coffee market is being affected by expectations of improved supply.
For Robusta, the Coffee Annual report of the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) forecasts that Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year will reach 32.5 million bags converted to green beans. The prospect of increased supply is a factor that can curb the price increase in the medium term.
Regarding the weather, the Central Highlands is in the rainy season. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting forecasts that the Central Highlands region will have showers and thunderstorms in some places, especially in the late afternoon and evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy rain. This season’s rain may support moisture for coffee trees, but it is also necessary to pay attention to the risk of thunderstorms, high humidity and goods preservation.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD at Critical Juncture as Middle East Conflict Widens
The gold price forecast for XAU/USD has reached a critical juncture as the ongoing Middle East conflict widens, introducing heightened uncertainty into global financial markets. As of late April 2026, the precious metal is trading near key technical support and resistance levels, with its direction increasingly tied to the trajectory of geopolitical tensions.
The escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly the widening of hostilities beyond initial borders, has significantly boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Investors are rotating capital out of riskier assets such as equities and into traditional stores of value. The conflict’s expansion has disrupted supply chains and raised energy price volatility, further supporting gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic instability. Historically, gold prices tend to rise during periods of geopolitical crisis, and current market conditions mirror those patterns.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is hovering around a critical pivot zone. The price is testing a long-term resistance level near $2,450 per ounce, a point that has capped gains in previous rallies. A decisive breakout above this level could open the path toward $2,500 or higher. Conversely, failure to hold support around $2,380 could trigger a pullback toward $2,320. Trading volumes have increased, indicating strong market participation and conviction among traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory, suggesting that gold is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further movement in either direction.
Beyond geopolitics, macroeconomic factors are also influencing the gold price forecast. Central banks globally, including the Federal Reserve, are maintaining cautious stances on interest rates amid persistent inflation concerns. Real yields remain low, which historically supports gold prices. Additionally, several central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue to add gold to their reserves, providing underlying demand. The combination of geopolitical risk and accommodative monetary policy creates a favorable environment for gold bulls.
For investors, the current juncture presents both opportunity and risk. Those already holding gold may benefit from further upside if tensions escalate, but a diplomatic resolution could trigger a sharp sell-off. Diversification remains key, and gold should be viewed as a portfolio hedge rather than a speculative asset. Traders should monitor headlines from the Middle East closely, as any significant developments could cause rapid price movements.
Gold’s price action is at a critical point, with the widening Middle East conflict acting as the primary catalyst. While the technical setup suggests potential for further gains, the outcome hinges on geopolitical developments. Investors should remain vigilant, focusing on risk management and long-term portfolio balance rather than short-term price predictions.
Q1: Why is gold considered a safe-haven asset during conflicts?
Gold has historically retained its value during times of political and economic uncertainty. Unlike paper currencies or equities, gold is a tangible asset not tied to any single government’s creditworthiness, making it attractive when geopolitical risks rise.
Q2: What are the key technical levels to watch for XAU/USD?
The immediate resistance is at $2,450 per ounce, with support at $2,380. A breakout above $2,450 could target $2,500, while a drop below $2,380 may lead to a decline toward $2,320.
Q3: How does central bank policy affect gold prices?
Central bank policies, particularly interest rate decisions, influence gold prices through their impact on real yields and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Low real yields and accommodative monetary policy generally support higher gold prices.
This post Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD at Critical Juncture as Middle East Conflict Widens first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades with modest gains on Wednesday, supported by a slight pullback in the US Dollar (USD). However, the metal lacks strong upside momentum as traders weigh energy-driven inflation risks and their impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate outlook.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $59.90 after hitting a two-week high of $60.94 earlier in the day.
Traders expect the Fed to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, while pricing in at least one interest-rate hike this year. Higher borrowing costs typically weigh on non-yielding assets such as Silver.
From a technical perspective, Silver bulls are struggling to hold above the psychological $60.00 mark. Still, XAG/USD trades above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the Bollinger middle band, near $58.86, suggesting that buyers retain some control.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is modestly positive, suggesting a slight bullish tilt in short-term pressure, but Average Directional Index (ADX) at 39 indicates the underlying trend remains fairly strong, limiting the scope for abrupt reversals.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the intraday high of $60.94, followed by the upper Bollinger Band near $62.39. A sustained break above this area could open the door toward the $70.00 barrier.
On the downside, the 20-day SMA near $58.86 offers immediate support, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at $55.34. A deeper decline could expose the psychological $50 level.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The XAU/USD pair extended its weekly rally towards the $4,160 region on Wednesday, holding nearby in the American afternoon. The Greenback found modest demand throughout the first half of the day, but gave up following comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump, threatening to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges.
“Any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran,” President Trump shared on Truth Social. The news triggered safe-haven demand, yet again, demand for the precious metal outpaced that for the US Dollar (USD).
Meanwhile, it was the turn of the United Kingdom (UK) to update inflation data. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% in the year to June, easing from the 2.8% posted in May. Core annual inflation rose 2.6%, matching the previous reading and slightly higher than the 2.5% anticipated by market players, not enough to fuel rate hike speculation.
Most major economies reported the latest CPI figures in the last few days, and only US and UK inflation receded in June. Canadian and New Zealand figures were above expectations, although not far above previous readings. The numbers are a clear example of how energy-related inflation and, hence, the Middle East war are impacting financial markets these days, and therefore, shaping sentiment and trends.
Easing US inflationary pressures have put a halt to the US Dollar (USD) rally against Gold amid decreasing odds for rate hikes, even in a risk-averse environment.
In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD turned bullish, as the price stands above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,060.38, the 100-period SMA at $4,074.44, and the 200-period SMA at $4,124.41, turning this trio into a dense support band beneath the market. Momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 66 and the 14-period Momentum indicator holding above its midline, despite losing upward strength.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD turned neutral. The pair holds well below the 200-day SMA at $4,496.16 and the 100-day SMA at $4,501.34, keeping the longer-term trend capped despite the recent bounce. At the same time, XAU/USD reclaimed the 20-day SMA (now at $4,069.95), suggesting some near-term stabilization. Finally, the RSI indicator aims higher at 51, while the Momentum indicator heads nowhere around their midlines.
On the downside, immediate support is located at around $4,100, followed by a congestion of moving averages in the $4,070 region. Deeper pullbacks should deny the bullish case and see the pair battle to retain the $4,000 mark. Resistance, on the other hand, lies at the intraday high at $4,165, followed by the $4,200 threshold.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Copper price formed bullish rally yesterday, achieving some gains by reaching $6.490 level, approaching the barrier at $6.5100, representing a confirmation key for activating the bullish trend.
The price might be forced to form some sideways trading, however the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of surpassing the current barrier, to expect targeting new positive stations that might begin at $6.6100 and $6.7300.
The expected trading range for today is between $6.3500 and $6.6100
Trend forecast: Bullish
Domestic coffee prices today
According to the latest data, the average coffee price in the domestic market is at 98,500 VND/kg.
In Dak Lak, coffee prices are recorded at 98,500 VND/kg. Gia Lai and the old Dak Nong area are also at the same level of 98,500 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong, coffee prices are at 98,000 VND/kg, the lowest among the surveyed areas.
The price level still maintains close to the 99,000 VND/kg mark, significantly higher than the price range at the beginning of July.
The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank is recorded at 26,080 VND/USD.
World coffee prices
According to the latest price list you provided, world coffee prices increased slightly on both the London and New York exchanges.
On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract increased by 7 USD/ton, equivalent to 0.18%, to 3,884 USD/ton.
Robusta for November 2026 delivery increased by 22 USD/ton, equivalent to 0.57%, to 3,851 USD/ton.
The January and March 2027 terms increased by 24 USD/ton and 26 USD/ton respectively, reaching 3,811 USD/ton and 3,776 USD/ton.
The July 2026 Robusta contract reached 3.984 USD/ton, an increase of 7 USD/ton. However, this term has very low trading volume because it is close to maturity, so the September contract reflects the market trend more clearly.
On the New York exchange, Arabica also increased in terms. The September 2026 Arabica futures contract increased by 4.25 US cents/lb, equivalent to 1.33%, to 324.55 US cents/lb.
Arabica December 2026 futures increased by 5.65 US cents/lb, equivalent to 1.86%, to 309.45 US cents/lb.
The March and May 2027 terms both increased by 5.15 US cents/lb, reaching 302.75 US cents/lb and 300.80 US cents/lb respectively.
The July 2027 term increased by 5.10 US cents/lb, to 299.60 US cents/lb.
Coffee price assessment
Domestic coffee prices continue to increase and approach the 99,000 VND/kg mark. This development is consistent with the slight increase in Robusta and Arabica prices in the world market.
The increase on the two exchanges is not large, so this can be seen as a cautious recovery rather than a new breakthrough signal. In the short term, coffee prices still depend on international price movements, the USD/VND exchange rate and the purchasing demand of export businesses.
From a global market perspective, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that the average ICO aggregate price index in June 2026 reached 248.90 US cents/lb, down 2.8% compared to May 2026. ICO’s Coffee Market Report monitors price fluctuations, trade and supply-demand balance of the coffee industry.
For Robusta, the Coffee Annual report of the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) forecasts that Vietnam’s total coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year will reach 32.5 million bags. The prospect of increased supply is a factor that can curb the upward momentum in the medium term.
For Brazil, the USDA/FAS report forecasts green coffee production for the 2026-2027 crop to reach 71.9 million bags, of which Arabica reaches 47.5 million bags and Robusta reaches 24.4 million bags. This is a factor to be monitored because Brazil is a major supplier in the Arabica market.
Citi raised its outlook for average Brent crude prices for the rest of 2026 late on Sunday, warning prices could surge to $150 a barrel if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted through the end of June.
The bank lifted its base-case forecast for Brent to $110, $95 and $80 a barrel for the second, third and fourth quarter of 2026, respectively, assigning a 50% probability to that scenario.
Citi also pushed back its expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the end of May, from mid-to-late April, after the United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement during their second round of peace talks.
“With both sides still far apart on their red lines, we see the risks surrounding our bullish near term and our 2H’26 central case oil price forecasts as skewed to the upside,” Citi said.
Under its bull-case scenario, which carries a 30% probability, Citi assumes oil flows remain disrupted through the end of June at levels similar to current outages.29dk2902l
In that case, Brent crude could spike to $150 a barrel, with average prices near $130 in both the second and third quarters of 2026, before easing to $100 in the fourth quarter.
The bank also outlined a “super bull” scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond June, an outcome it said would have severe implications for oil spending as a share of global and U.S. economic output.
Citi noted oil prices have risen less than expected in recent weeks despite supply disruptions, citing large pre-conflict inventory builds, releases from International Energy Agency strategic stockpiles and a widespread expectations that the conflict would be resolved quickly.
Oil prices would need to rise far beyond current levels to match past peaks in oil spending relative to GDP, with U.S. all-in product prices near $280 a barrel and global prices around $220, implying Brent above $160-$180, Citi said.
Oil edged higher on Monday as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained, keeping global supplies tight.
Brent crude futures rose to $106.68 a barrel by 0229 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate stood at $95.52.
(Reporting by Pablo Sinha and Noel John; Editing by Tom Hogue and Sumana Nandy)
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