Key Support Shows at 3.67 to 3.64

A key support zone starts is indicated around the confluence of several indicators. It starts with the 50% retracement at 3.67 and includes the 20-Day MA around 3.66. However, the more significant price level is 3.64. That was the peak in 2023, and it created a lower swing high for the downtrend and subsequently led to a decline to the 2024 trend low of 1.52.

If natural gas can continue to trade above the bottom of the range at 3.64 it looks to have a good chance of retaining the near-term rising trend structure. Otherwise, a sustained decline below 3.64 heads to test support of the 50-Day MA at 3.29. If that level fails to lead to a bullish reversal, then 3.02 becomes a target, followed by the top boundary line for a large symmetrical triangle formation.

Bearish Candle on Monday

Both Monday’s rally and the prior swing high at 4.20 from December 30 found resistance around the top line of the larger trend channel (solid blue). Therefore, that top line continues to mark areas where resistance may be seen if natural gas is able to again strengthen and test recent highs. There is a pattern like a bearish wedge when considering the rising lower solid trendline that coincides with the January 3 swing low at 3.33. The top line of the wedge would be the dashed blue line connecting the 3.02 swing high.

Hit ABCD Target

It is interesting to note that Monday’s advance completed a rising ABCD pattern (purple) at 4.33 before strong resistance was encountered following the 4.37 high. A quick bearish intraday reversal and weak daily close followed. The ABCD pattern is measuring price symmetry of the two upswings in the pattern. The AB leg is the first leg up and the CD leg is the second. Once the two swings show the same appreciation in price, the potential for a pivot, resistance in this case, may improve.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) provided additional positive trades to test 3222.00$ level, noticing that the price is attempting to breach this level to hint stopping the bearish correction that dominated the recent trades and regain the main bullish trend again, on its way to achieve gains that start by testing 3425.50$ level.

Therefore, the bullish bias will be expected for today, noting that failing to confirming breaching 3222.00$ will stop the bullish wave and push the price to decline again.

The expected trading range for today is between 3130.00$ support and 3400.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver prices edged lower amid a risk-on market sentiment, driven by optimism as Trump’s incoming team considered gradual tariff hikes.
• The non-yielding Silver depreciates as the recent US labor market data reinforced the Fed’s hawkish policy stance in January.
• The industrial demand for Silver could increase following China’s recent stimulus measures.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around $29.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The price of the safe-haven Silver faces challenges due to risk-on market sentiment following reports about US President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team considering a gradual increase in import tariffs boosted investor confidence.

Bloomberg reported on Monday that Trump’s incoming administration is evaluating a phased approach to implementing tariffs, aiming to prevent a sharp rise in inflation while managing trade policy adjustments.

The non-yielding Silver faces challenges as the recent US labor market figures for December, which is expected to support the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to maintain interest rates at current levels in January.

Moreover, reinforced hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed has sparked a rise in US Treasury yields. Rising yields boosted the US Dollar to recent highs, making Silver more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies and dampening Silver demand.

However, the Greenback corrects downwards following the disappointing US December Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Market participants will keep an eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due later on Wednesday.

The demand for Silver could increase following China’s recent stimulus measures. As the world’s largest consumer of metals, any improvement in China’s economic conditions could significantly boost the industrial use of Silver.

People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng stated on Monday that “interest rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) tools will be utilized to maintain ample liquidity.” Gongsheng reaffirmed China’s plans to increase the fiscal deficit and emphasized that China will continue to be a driving force for the global economy.

Crude oil price faced negative pressure to break 78.25$ level and settle below it, and by taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price is forming head and shoulders’ pattern that its confirmation line located at 77.45$, which means that breaking this level will push the price to continue the decline and achieve negative targets that reach 75.60$.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaching 78.25$ followed by 78.80$ levels will stop the negative scenario and lead the price to resume the main bullish track again.

The expected trading range for today is between 76.00$ support and 79.00$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price meets sellers again above $2,675 heading into the US CPI release.
• Softer US PPI data add to the US Dollar and Treasury bond yields correction.
• Gold price stays hopeful amid the daily chart’s triangle breakout and bullish RSI.

Gold price returns to the red early Wednesday as buyers switch to the sidelines, awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release for further insights on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate path.

Gold price eyes US CPI inflation data for cues on Fed’s policy

Gold price reverses a part of the previous day’s rebound as sellers continue to lurk above $2,675. The US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields remain subdued so far this Wednesday, unable to lend support to the bright metal. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on Gold price while cashing on the recent long positions heading into the US CPI test, especially after softer-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) readings.

Data published on Tuesday showed that the US annual PPI rose 3.3% in December, missing the expected 3.4% growth, while the core PPI inflation rose to 3.5% year-on-year (YoY) in the same period, compared to the market forecast of 3.8%. Monthly figures also disappointed. Despite the softer data, markets have fully priced in a rate cut pause at the Fed’s policy meeting later this month.

Therefore, the stakes are high for the US CPI report as it could alter the market’s pricing of the Fed rate cut outlook this year. Traders have scaled back their bets to only one Fed rate cut in 2025 from two predicted in December last year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, following the strong December US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

The hawkish Fed bets are backed by the premise that US President-elect Donald Trump, set to begin his second term next week, will likely fuel inflation with his protectionist policies.

Economists expect the headline US CPI to rise 2.9% YoY in December after increasing 2.7% in November. The annual core CPI inflation is seen steady at 3.3% in the reported period. The monthly CPI inflation will likely remain at 0.3%, while the core figure is set to ease slightly to 0.2% in December.

A hotter-than-expected US CPI report could affirm expectations of just one Fed rate cut this year or prompt markets to price out any easing. This could trigger a fresh sell-off in the non-interest-bearing Gold price. Meanwhile, disappointing CPI figures could provide extra legs to the ongoing bullish momentum.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Nothing changes for Gold price from a short-term technical perspective, as buyers have entered a bullish consolidation phase following last week’s symmetrical triangle breakout.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hold well above the midline, currently near 56, suggesting that Gold price remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade in the coming days.

Gold price needs to find a sustained break above the $2,675 barrier on the way to the $2,700 barrier to regain upside traction.

Daily candlestick closing above that level is critical to extending the uptrend toward the December 12 high of $2,726.

Alternatively, strong support is located at the January 13 low of $2,656, below which sellers must crack the $2,640 demand area.

That zone is the confluence of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), 50-day SMA, 100-SMA and the triangle convergence, making it a powerful support.

If the downside momentum accelerates, the January 6 low of $2,615 could come to buyers’ rescue.

The GBPUSD price shows additional positive trades to move above 1.2200$, waiting to get negative motive that pushes the price to resume the main bearish trend, which its next main target located at 1.2045$.

We remind you that breaking 1.2180$ will ease the mission to achieve the expected decline, while holding below 1.2300$ represents major condition to the continuation of the bearish trend.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2120$ support and 1.2290$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bearish

Xerox Holdings’ stock price (XRX) inched higher in the intraday levels, buoyed by positive signals from the RSI as the stock tries to correct the main downward trend while trading alongside the negative trend line in the medium term, with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA.

Therefore we expect the stock to return lower, targeting the support of $8.04 anew, provided it settles below the resistance of $9.50.

Trend forecast for today: Likely Bearish 

XAU/USD Current price: $2,672.99

• The United States Producer Price Index rose by less than anticipated in December.
• Speculative interest continues to trade on sentiment and Donald Trump’s headlines.
• XAU/USD ticks higher as the sentiment deteriorates, limited directional strength.

Spot Gold trades within familiar levels on Tuesday as a better market mood weighed on safe-haven demand throughout the first half of the day. The sentiment improved on headlines indicating that President-elect Donald Trump’s team is considering gradual tariff increases over the upcoming months to prevent a sudden increase in inflation. The plan, not confirmed neither deny by Trump at the time being, implies 2% to 5% tariffs increased per month.

Meanwhile, the United States (US) reported that wholesale-level inflation rose by less than anticipated in December. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in the month, below the previous 0.4% and the expected 0.3%. On a yearly basis, the PPI was up 3.3%,  missing expectations of 3.4%. Finally, the core annual reading resulted at 3.5%, ticking higher from the 3.4% posted in November yet below the 3.8% anticipated by market players.

The positive mood receded as the American session developed, and the three major US indexes trade in the red.

The news reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at their current levels for longer than previously anticipated. Speculative interest is now waiting for the US December Consumer Price Index (CPI), to be out on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom (UK) will also unveil CPI figures earlier in the day.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD hovers around $2,670, and the daily chart shows that bulls are cautiously adding. The pair remains above its moving averages, albeit a bullish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is about to cross above a flat 20 SMA, signaling receding buying interest. Technical indicators, however, have resumed their advances within positive levels, limiting the odds of a relevant leg south.

In the 4-hour chart, a directionless 20 SMA has rejected advances since the week started, now acting as dynamic resistance at around $2,674.00. The 100 and 200 SMAs are also flat, yet well below the current level. Finally, technical indicators have ticked higher, although in neutral-to-bearish territory.

Support levels: 2,660.70 2,645.15 2,635.00

Resistance levels: 2,675.00 2,683.20 2,697.90

• Silver price tests immediate resistance at the 14-day EMA of $29.83 level.
• The 14-day RSI consolidates around the 50 level, indicating a neutral market outlook.
• The pair may test initial support at the four-month low of $28.74, recorded on December 19.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers some of their recent losses from the previous session, trading near $29.80 per troy ounce during European trading hours on Tuesday. Analyzing the daily chart suggests that short-term price momentum appears neutral, with the XAG/USD pair positioned around the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). A breakout in either direction could signal a clearer trend.

Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the 50 level, suggesting a neutral outlook. This suggests the market is evenly balanced, with no clear indication of overbought or oversold conditions, reflecting equilibrium between bullish and bearish momentum.

Silver price currently tests resistance at the immediate 14-day EMA of $29.83, followed closely by the nine-day EMA at $29.84. A breakout above these levels could boost market sentiment and drive the XAG/USD pair toward the key psychological level of $30.00. A sustained move beyond this threshold may strengthen bullish momentum, potentially setting the stage for the grey metal to target its two-month high of $32.28, last achieved on December 9.

On the downside, initial support is located at the four-month low of $28.74, recorded on December 19, followed by the critical psychological level of $28.00. A break below these levels could intensify bearish momentum and signal further downside potential for Silver price.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

• Silver struggles to gain any meaningful traction and seems vulnerable to sliding further.
• The overnight failure near the 100-day EMA supports prospects for additional losses.
• A sustained strength beyond the $30.50-$30.55 area will negate the negative outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) ticks higher during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks bullish conviction and seems vulnerable to extending the previous day’s retracement slide from the vicinity of a four-week top. The white metal currently trades around the $29.65 region, up 0.15% for the day. 

From a technical perspective, Monday’s failure near the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) suggests that the recent recovery from the $28.80-$28.75 region has run out of steam and validates the negative outlook. That said, mixed oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before placing fresh bearish bets around the XAG/USD and positioning for deeper losses.

In the meantime, the $30.00 psychological mark now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $30.50-$30.55 region (100-day EMA). A sustained move beyond the latter might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders and lift the XAG/USD beyond an intermediate resistance near the $31.00 round figure, towards the next relevant barrier near the $31.35-$31.40 zone. 

On the flip side, weakness below the mid-$29.00s will reaffirm the bearish outlook and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to retest the $29.00 mark before eventually dropping to the $28.80-$28.70 region, or a three-month low touched in December. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $28.45-$28.40 area en route to the $28.00 mark and the $27.70-$27.65 support.

XAG/USD daily chart