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14 01, 2025

XAU/USD buyers refuse to give up as focus shifts to US inflation data

By |2025-01-14T08:53:59+02:00January 14, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price rebounds above $2,660 early Tuesday, with eyes on key US inflation data.
  • Speculations surrounding Trump’s tariff plans drive US Dollar and Gold price action.
  • Technically, Gold price appears as a ‘buy-the-dip’ trade on the daily time frame.

Gold price is back on the bids in Asian trading on Tuesday, having found fresh buyers near the $2,660 region. Gold buyers try their luck again heading into the US inflation test, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) slated for release later in the day.

Gold price regains traction amid Trump’s tariffs chatter

The US Dollar (USD) consolidates its overnight retreat while the US Treasury bond yields lick their wounds early Tuesday, allowing Gold price to make another run toward the $2,700 barrier.

The risk-on rally in Chinese equities lifts the broader market sentiment, keeping the safe-haven USD on edge. Investors remain expectant of more stimulus from China, especially after recent Chinese efforts to support the Yuan and economic growth.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said: “China plans to implement a variety of stimulus measures to counter the impact of anticipated US tariffs and a continued housing market downturn.”

Markets also cash in on their USD longs ahead of the top-tier US PPI data, which will likely be closely scrutinized in the lead-up to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showdown.

Traders have scaled back their bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut this year to only one from two predicted in December last year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, following a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report released on Friday.

Therefore, the US inflation data are critical to affirming the hawkish Fed expectations, significantly impacting the Greenback alongside the Gold price. The annual US PPI inflation is expected to increase to 3.4% in December from 3% in November, while core PPI is seen rising 3.7% in the same period after reporting a 3.4% growth previously.

Hot inflation data could revive the US Dollar’s demand and resume the Gold price correction. However, the Gold price could recapture $2,700 and beyond on a downside surprise to the PPI print, prompting markets to prepare for a softer CPI report on Wednesday. It’s worth nothing that any chatter about Trump’s tariff plans could also play a pivotal role in the Gold price action.

Gold price corrected from a monthly high on Monday despite increased inflationary concerns in the incoming US President Donald Trump’s 2.0 era. Gold price is considered as a hedge against inflation.

Additionally, the bright metal failed to benefit from a sharp pullback in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields after a Bloomberg report. Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported late Monday that advisors on Trump’s incoming economic team are considering gradually implementing tariffs, increasing them incrementally each month by 2% to 5% per month.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains more or less the same, with more upside likely in the offing following the previous week’s symmetrical triangle breakout.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the midline, currently near 55, adding credence to the bullish potential in Gold price.

Gold price looks to take out the $2,700 barrier should buyers extend control.  

The next upside barriers are aligned at the $2,710 round level and the December 12 high of $2,726.

On the other side, strong support is around $2,641, where the 50-day SMA coincides with the triangle resistance.

On sustained declines, Gold price could find immediate respite at $2,635, the confluence of the 21-day SMA and the 100-day SMA.

The last line of defense for Gold buyers is seen at the January 6 low of $2,615.

Economic Indicator

Producer Price Index (YoY)

The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Read more.

 



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14 01, 2025

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Failed Breakout Signals Bearish Shift

By |2025-01-14T00:47:09+02:00January 14, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Bearish Reaction May Continue

Certainly, today’s bearish reaction to new highs seems to lower the chance for a new trend high in the short term. At least until after there is a test of lower support levels. There are a few things to be aware of. Notice that resistance was seen around the confluence of several technical price targets, beginning with 4.33. A rising ABCD pattern (purple) reached its initial target from the pattern and therefore identified a possible pivot level. So far, the market reaction confirms this.

Upside Target Reached

In addition, to completing a target for the ABCD pattern today, a breakout above the top trendline of a rising channel also triggered on the way to 4.37. Resistance was seen around that line on the most recent swing high of 4.20. So, today’s price action shows a failed breakout of the channel. Once a failure occurs, the possibility of a swing in the other direction increases. That is what is being shown so far.

Key Support Anchored by 20-Day MA

The first lower trend support area is around the 20-Day MA, now at 3.62, along with an internal uptrend line. Moreover, the 20-Day line can be combined with the 50% retracement at 3.67 and the 2023 swing high of 3.64. The 2023 high has some significance and therefore a solid chance of being tested as support during a correction. Having the 20-Day line and 50% retracement nearby increases the chance for signs of support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.



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13 01, 2025

XAU/USD holds above $2,660 with a soft tone

By |2025-01-13T22:45:49+02:00January 13, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


XAU/USD Current price: $2,663.89

  • In the absence of macroeconomic figures, sentiment leads the way across financial boards.
  • Fresh UK and US inflation data and President-elect Donald Trump in the eye of the storm.
  • XAU/USD trades with a soft tone and could reach lower lows in the near term.

Spot Gold is on the back foot on Monday amid persistent US Dollar’s (USD) demand. The XAU/USD hit a multi-week high of $2,697.88 on Friday, as a solid United States (US) monthly employment report spurred risk aversion. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed the country added 256,000 new jobs in December, while the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.1%. The figures were upbeat. Even further,  Average Hourly Earnings rose by 3.9%, easing from the previous 4%. The combined headlines hint at an on-hold Federal Reserve (Fed) for longer.

Demand for safety equally benefited Gold and the Greenback at the end of the previous week, yet persistent USD demand finally took its toll on XAU/USD, now trading at around $2,665. In the absence of relevant macroeconomic data, the focus remained on sentiment, and stocks’ behaviour. Asian and European indexes closed in the red, while Wall Street trades mixed: only the Dow Jones Industrial Average trades in the green after collapsing on Friday, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite remain in the red.

Meanwhile, the focus this week will be on inflation. The United Kingdom (UK) and the US will release fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures next Wednesday. Market participants will also be waiting for President-elect Donald Trump and tariffs updates.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows sellers have gained courage, yet at stepper decline is far from evident. The pair remains above all its moving averages, although a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) converges with a bullish 100 SMA at around $2,635. Technical indicators, in the meantime, turned sharply lower, yet remain within positive levels.

In the 4-hour chart, Gold is developing below its 20  SMA, which lost its bullish strength and provides resistance at around $2,672. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, remain flat below the current level. Finally, technical indicators head firmly south, pressuring their midlines straight from overbought readings, suggesting the near-term slide could continue.

Support levels: 2,660.70 2,645.15 2,635.00

Resistance levels: 2,672.20 2,683.20 2,697.90



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13 01, 2025

Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Rally

By |2025-01-13T20:44:11+02:00January 13, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets have shown quite a bit of upward momentum. But really, at this point in time, I think you have to look at them through the prism of how many rallies do we have left in the winter? Clearly, we’re in one. Now, the question of course will be whether or not we can break to the $4.50 level. If we can break there, then it’s likely that we could see a lot of upward momentum, perhaps to the $5 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I have no interest in shorting whatsoever. So, with that being the case, I’m just looking for dips to buy.

The $4 level should be support as well, but I also think there’s probably even more support at the $3.60 level. Sooner or later, we are going to focus on spring, but we’ve got some time before that. So, I think we’ve got one, maybe two more bounces and shots higher before we turn around and start focusing on winter being gone. The market breaking down below the $3.40 level could of course break things down significantly, but we’re so far away from that right now, it’s not really a concern of mine.



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13 01, 2025

Copper Price Forecast 2025: China in Focus as Geopolitical Shift Roils Trade Hopes

By |2025-01-13T18:42:50+02:00January 13, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


The red metal has broken a two-year losing streak, and tech analysis is turning bullish

  • Copper is coming off a winning year after breaking a two-year losing streak.
  • China stimulus efforts may help boost demand for the metal.
  • U.S. mining is expected to increase, but supply is unlikely to be supported by reduced regulations this year.

Copper 2024: year in review

Copper prices broke a two-year losing streak in 2024 after rising by about 3% following declines of 12% and 8% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

The red metal performed exceptionally well in the first half of last year, rising above $5 per pound before retreating in the second half of the year, falling back to nearly $4 per pound.

The global economic uncertainty that developed in the second half of last year, particularly in China—the largest copper consumer in the world—dragged on the red metal’s sentiment.

Will 2025 provide more gains?

Copper prices got off to a great start in 2025, rising nearly 5% through the first week of trading. The move came despite a rise in the dollar—which usually works against prices because of the currency’s impact on trade.

However, several developments bode well for the industrial metal’s outlook this year.

The first is that China’s government appears more willing to introduce stimulus measures—both from the fiscal and monetary sides.

China expects a new trade war with the incoming Trump administration. While that will likely be negative for global trade, it may also increase Beijing’s willingness to bolster domestic consumption.

A 5% target for Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) growth remains in place for 2025. Beijing has already introduced several measures to boost consumption, including expanding a subsidized program that allows consumers to trade in goods, such as phones.

China also boosted pay for millions of government workers, with about $20 billion in economic impact from those wage hikes. Beijing also agreed to issue about $409 billion in bonds for 2025, the highest on record.

Meanwhile, smelters in China are expected to continue to increase production this year even as the supply of copper concentrate narrows. The increased production estimates follow lower benchmark prices for copper concentrate, which could help to bolster smelters’ profit margins.

U.S. supply to come too late

The Trump administration appears likely to take measures to make it easier for mining projects to take off. That could include faster permitting and reduced regulations, especially around environmental concerns. That should help boost copper supply, but it won’t come in 2025 because mines take years and sometimes decades to start producing.

That said, demand in the United States is likely to increase, especially if current economic conditions persist and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Still, if the U.S. economy continues to chug along, it could help to support copper prices. The main tailwinds could come from electric vehicles and increased data centers to support artificial intelligence.

Trading copper in 2025

A possible target for copper this year could be $5 per pound, according to several analysts. However, there will likely be considerable volatility along the way. A trade war would have an oversized impact on financial markets, especially assets like copper, which are sensitive to trade and overall economic conditions.

Traders increased their short bets on copper late in 2024, with short positioning now at the highest levels since last summer. Prices are still increasing, which could increase copper prices should the current trajectory hold, forcing traders to close their short positions.

Copper prices made a notable technical move early this month, crossing above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) on Jan. 10. The 200-day SMA is now being attacked, which could lead to a material improvement in the metal’s technical structure if prices manage to close above. Possible resistance from recent swing highs, notably the November swing high at 4.4930, and the September high at 4.79, could come into play in the coming months.

Copper Price Forecast 2025: China in Focus as Geopolitical Shift Roils Trade Hopes

Thomas Westwatera tastylive financial writer and analyst, has eight years of markets and trading experience. @fxwestwater

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. 

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13 01, 2025

Trump policy concerns offset hawkish Fed bets; what’s next for XAU/USD?

By |2025-01-13T16:42:13+02:00January 13, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price treads water below $2,700 as the US inflation week sets in.
  • Trump’s policy uncertainty outweighs strong US NFP-led hawkish Fed bets.
  • Gold buyers remain defiant amid a symmetrical triangle breakout, but profit-taking could seep in.

Gold price pauses its four-day uptrend, treading water below $2,700 in Asian trading on Monday. Gold buyers seem to face exhaustion following a relentless rise in the previous week.

Gold price stalls but upside remains intact

The US Dollar (USD) has entered a bullish consolidation phase alongside the US Treasury bond yields, leaving Gold price gyrating in a tight range below the monthly high of $2,698 set on Friday.

However, China’s efforts to stabilize the Chinese Yuan and prop up economic growth lend support to the non-yielding Gold price, keeping its downside attempts capped. Additionally, markets remain wary of the potential trade policies implemented by US President-elect Donald Trump and their impact on inflation and the economy, underpinning the safe-haven appeal of the bright metal.

Furthermore, the ongoing upsurge in WTI oil prices also adds to the inflationary concerns in the Trump 2.0 era, supporting the inflation-hedge Gold price. Oil price shot through the roof on Friday after the US Treasury imposed wider sanctions on Russian oil supply. US sanctions are expected to affect Russian crude exports to top buyers China and India.

In the day ahead, it remains to be seen if Gold price manages to resume the uptrend as traders could resort to profit-taking on their long positions heading toward Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, which holds more relevance after Friday’s stellar Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report ramped up bets for just one interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.

The Labor Department’s NFP report showed that the US economy created 256,000 jobs in December against November’s 227,000 job gains and the expected 160,000 figure. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% versus a steady reading of 4.2% expected in the reported period.

“Markets have already scaled back expectations for Fed rate cuts to just 27 basis points (bps) for all of 2025, with the terminal level now seen around 4.0% compared to the 3.0% many had hoped for this time last year,” according to Refinitiv’s US Dollar Interest Rate Probabilities.

More so, traders will monitor the demand for physical Gold in India and China for fresh trading impulses. Reuters reported that “Gold discounts in India rose this week as consumers refrained from buying as local prices hit a month’s high.” In China, the world’s top Gold consumer, Gold buying activity seems to have picked as the Year of the Snake draws closer.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that despite a Bear Cross in play, Gold buyers remained defiant and flexed their muscles on Friday, extending the symmetrical triangle breakout.

Gold price confirmed an upside break from a month-long symmetrical triangle pattern on January 8, adding credence to the ongoing bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed the 100-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis on Thursday, validiting the Bear Cross.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above the midline, currently near 60.00, backing the case for more upside in Gold price.

Gold price could extend its four-day advance to take out the $2,700 barrier should buyers regain poise.  

The next upside barriers are aligned at the $2,710 round level and the December 12 high of $2,726.

Conversely, strong support is around $2,645, where the 50-day SMA coincides with the triangle resistance.

If that cap is cracked, Gold price will find immediate respite at $2,635, the confluence of the 21-day SMA, the 100-day SMA and the triangle support.

The last line of defense for Gold buyers is seen at the January 6 low of $2,615.

(This story was corrected on January 13 at 6:50 GMT to say that a stellar NFP report ramped up bets for just one interest rate cut by the Fed this year, not a hike.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 



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13 01, 2025

XAG/USD slumps to near $30 as traders reassess Fed’s interest rate outlook

By |2025-01-13T14:40:44+02:00January 13, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Silver price tumbles to near $30.00 as US bond yields rise after traders pare Fed dovish bets.
  • US bond yields surge after the release of the surprisingly upbeat US NFP data for December.
  • The overall outlook of the Silver price remains upbeat amid risk-off market sentiment.

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls sharply to near $30.00 after failing to extend its upside above the key hurdle of $30.60 in Monday’s European session. The white metal weakens as the US bond yields strengthens, with market participants reassessing their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook after the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December.

10-year US Treasury yields post fresh yearly high to near 4.80% as traders have pared Fed dovish bets after the release of the surprisingly upbeat labor market data. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver, as they result in higher opportunity costs for them. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh two-year high above 110.00.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% atleast in the next three policy meetings.

Meanwhile, the broader outlook of the Silver price remains firm as the market sentiment is bearish amid uncertainty over the incoming trade policies under the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump. The appeal of non-yielding assets strengthens in a highly uncertain environment.

This week, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published on Wednesday.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price continues to face selling pressure near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $30.35. The white metal remains below the upward-sloping trendline around $30.50 on a daily timeframe, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the December 12 high of $32.33 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

 



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13 01, 2025

Oil Traders Cautiously Bullish as Prices Hit October Highs

By |2025-01-13T12:39:14+02:00January 13, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Crude oil futures reached their highest levels since October earlier this week, and the momentum wasn’t slowing as of Friday morning. WTI and Brent were trading at $74.58 and $77.59 respectively at the time of writing, with traders assessing the interplay of seasonal demand, supply constraints, and mixed inventory data as the week draws to a close. Despite the recent rise in prices, traders remain cautious about balancing tightening supply and uncertain demand signals.

Supply Constraints Drive Upward Pressure

Supply-side factors were critical in shaping crude oil’s price movements this week. OPEC production dropped by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, largely due to maintenance in the UAE and declining Iranian output. These reductions align with OPEC+’s broader commitment to cut production, ensuring supply remains constrained. Saudi Arabia and Iraq maintained steady production levels, adhering to the cartel’s strategy to limit global availability.

Adding to the supply squeeze, Western sanctions on Russian crude shipments continued to bite. Efforts by the Biden administration to restrict Russian exports, coupled with expectations of a 300,000 bpd decline in Iranian production, amplified concerns over global supply. These geopolitical factors have reinforced support for prices, even as demand uncertainties loom.

Winter Weather Fuels Seasonal Demand

Colder-than-expected weather across the U.S. and Europe has sharply increased demand for heating…

Crude oil futures reached their highest levels since October earlier this week, and the momentum wasn’t slowing as of Friday morning. WTI and Brent were trading at $74.58 and $77.59 respectively at the time of writing, with traders assessing the interplay of seasonal demand, supply constraints, and mixed inventory data as the week draws to a close. Despite the recent rise in prices, traders remain cautious about balancing tightening supply and uncertain demand signals.

Supply Constraints Drive Upward Pressure

Supply-side factors were critical in shaping crude oil’s price movements this week. OPEC production dropped by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, largely due to maintenance in the UAE and declining Iranian output. These reductions align with OPEC+’s broader commitment to cut production, ensuring supply remains constrained. Saudi Arabia and Iraq maintained steady production levels, adhering to the cartel’s strategy to limit global availability.

Adding to the supply squeeze, Western sanctions on Russian crude shipments continued to bite. Efforts by the Biden administration to restrict Russian exports, coupled with expectations of a 300,000 bpd decline in Iranian production, amplified concerns over global supply. These geopolitical factors have reinforced support for prices, even as demand uncertainties loom.

Winter Weather Fuels Seasonal Demand

Colder-than-expected weather across the U.S. and Europe has sharply increased demand for heating oil. U.S. refineries, operating at their highest capacity since 2018, have worked to meet this surge in consumption. Analysts from JPMorgan forecast global oil demand in January to grow by 1.4 million bpd year-on-year, fueled by heating needs and early Lunar New Year travel in China.

Despite these seasonal gains, economic concerns have dampened optimism. Softer U.S. factory orders and persistent inflationary pressures in Europe, alongside China’s energy policy uncertainties, have raised questions about the sustainability of industrial and refining demand. For instance, China’s higher fuel oil import taxes could limit future consumption growth.

Conflicting Inventory Data Adds Market Complexity

U.S. inventory reports introduced mixed signals into the market. Early data suggested drawdowns in crude stockpiles, providing initial price support. However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released official data showing unexpected increases in gasoline and distillate inventories. These builds applied downward pressure on prices midweek, especially as a stronger U.S. dollar made oil more expensive for international buyers.

The dollar’s strength has been a persistent headwind for crude markets, limiting the ability of prices to sustain gains despite supply concerns. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming inventory reports for further clarity on U.S. demand trends.

Saudi Arabia Signals Confidence With Price Hike

In a notable development, Saudi Aramco raised its official selling prices (OSPs) for February shipments to Asia, marking the first price hike in three months. This move reflects Saudi Arabia’s confidence in the region’s demand resilience and aligns with tightening supply conditions in the Middle East driven by sanctions and production cuts.

The decision underscores the kingdom’s bullish view on market fundamentals and its ability to influence regional pricing power. Strong Asian demand and a constrained supply outlook bolster this position, offering potential support for global crude prices.

Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures

Trend Indicator Analysis

The main trend is down but momentum is trending higher. It will change to up on a trade through $77.36. The minor trend is up, this is controlling the momentum. A close below $73.96 on Friday could have a negative impact on momentum next week.

The long-term range is $87.11 to $60.88. The market is currently straddling its 50% level at $74.00. This is a major pivot. Overtaking this level with conviction could send the market soaring with $77.36 the next target.

The intermediate-term range is $60.88 to $81.33. Its retracement zone at $71.10 to $68.69 is support. The retracement zone is new support.

Weekly Technical Forecast

The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week ending January 17 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $74.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $74.00 will signal the presence of strong counter-trend buyers. If this creates enough near-term momentum, we could see potential acceleration into the three major tops at $77.36, $79.61, and $81.33 over the near-term.

Bearish Scenario

A failure to sustain a move over 74.00 will indicate that strong sellers are still controlling the price action. It will also confirm that the market is still in “sell the rally” mode. This could drive prices back into the main support zone at $71.10 to $68.69.

Market Outlook: Moderately Bullish with Caution

Heading into Friday and beyond, crude oil prices are poised for modest gains as tightening supply conditions, supported by OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical risks, continue to underpin the market. Seasonal demand and robust refinery activity in the U.S. provide additional tailwinds for prices.

However, traders remain cautious. Inventory builds, global economic uncertainties, and a stronger dollar could temper upside momentum. Any unexpected demand weakness or larger-than-anticipated inventory increases may further cap potential gains.

For now, the market leans cautiously bullish, with supply constraints and seasonal factors providing critical support. Traders will watch for signals from inventory reports and economic data for clearer direction.

Technically, the weekly direction will be determined by trader reaction to the major pivot at $74.00. Bullish over this level, cautiously bearish under it.





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13 01, 2025

XAU/USD loses ground below $2,700 amid firmer US Dollar

By |2025-01-13T04:32:49+02:00January 13, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price loses ground to around $2,690 in Monday’s early Asian session.
  • The upbeat US job report and surging USD weigh on the Gold price. 
  • Trump’s policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks might cap the downside for the precious metal.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild losses near $2,690 on the stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly during the early Asian session on Monday. However, the safe-haven demand due to uncertainty surrounding the President-elect Donald Trump administration’s policies might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The stronger-than-expected US employment data on Friday reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might not cut interest rates as aggressively this year. This, in turn, weighs on the non-yielding asset. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by just 30 basis points (bps) over the course of this year, compared with cuts worth about 45 bps before the NFP report. 

On the other hand, Trump’s policy risks boosting the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. “Gold is still acting resilient in the face of a much stronger-than-expected jobs report … One of the factors that’s been supporting gold is this uncertainty that we’ve seen going into the (U.S. presidential) inauguration,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Additionally, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict might contribute to the precious metal downside. Israeli strikes continued throughout Gaza, including attacks near Gaza City, Nuseirat, and Bureij. Two attacks were also reported in the Houmin Valley in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 



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13 01, 2025

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Share Price Today – Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Stock Price Live NSE/BSE

By |2025-01-13T00:31:04+02:00January 13, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


ABOUT Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

  • Industry Oil & Gas Operations
  • ISIN INE213A01029
  • BSE Code 500312
  • NSE Code ONGC

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited is an India-based crude oil and natural gas company. The Company is engaged in exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and value-added products in India and acquisition of oil and gas acreages outside India for exploration, development and production, downstream (Refining and marketing of petroleum products), Petrochemicals, Power Generation, liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, Pipeline Transportation, special economic zone (SEZ) development, Helicopter services, Manufacturing of Ethanol and Sugar, Green and Renewable energy business. Its segment includes Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing. Its geographical segments consist of India, which includes offshore and onshore, and Outside India. Its subsidiaries include Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, ONGC Videsh Limited, Petronet MHB Limited, ONGC Green Limited, and HPCL Biofuels Limited, among others.

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Management

  • Arun Singh Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
  • Vivek Tongaonkar Chief Financial Officer, Director (Finance)
  • Rajni Kant Chief Compliance Officer, Company Secretary
  • Manish Patil Executive Director, Director (Human Resources)
  • Pankaj Kumar Director (Production), Executive Director
  • Sushma Rawat Director (Exploration), Executive Director
  • Arunangshu Sarkar Executive Director, Director (Strategy, Corporate Affairs, Technology and Field Services )



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