Created on December 24, 2024

• During my daily analysis of the commodity markets, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market, or the “US Oil” market grabs my attention because we continue to build a fairly significant base and at relatively low levels historically speaking.
• After all, the last couple of years have seen the area near $65 offer a massive support level, and this has been repeated since early September.

Technical Analysis is Still Gruesome

From a purely technical analysis standpoint, this market still looks pretty gruesome, but I also recognize that there are more things at play than simple moving averages. While the 50 Day EMA is sitting at the $70 level and has offered a significant amount of support over the last 2 days, I don’t care. Yes, you can use it as a bit of a marker, but I think the $70 level is the real key here. The 200 Day EMA currently sits at the $74 level and is dropping, so that could offer a bit of resistance as well. However, like I said earlier, this is all about the technical analysis.

The Middle East is going to continue to be an area of concern, and as long as that’s the case, you do have the possibility of the crude oil market being quite volatile. Furthermore, it’s worth noting that the one thing that does work in the favor of crude oil from a technical analysis standpoint is that the support level near the $65 level goes back at least 2 years, if not more. I suspect that we are simply trying to “build a base” before taking off to the upside.

Central bankers around the world have been slashing rates, and in theory that should stimulate the economy in multiple parts of the world. If that’s going to be something they are successful at, this means that the demand for crude oil will start to pick up again. Between that and everything that’s going on with Russia in the Middle East, it’s difficult to imagine that we break down drastically without some type of global financial crisis. Not saying that can happen, just that it looks more likely than not to be an area that value hunting occurs.

Ready to trade the daily crude oil Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out. 

• Gold price reverses the previous decline but remains in a familiar range early Tuesday.        
• The US Dollar holds the latest upswing alongside the US Treasury bond yields amid thin trading.
• Gold price remains a ‘sell-on-bounce’ trade amid bearish daily RSI, stuck between two key SMAs.

Gold price is attempting another run higher while defending the $2,600 threshold early Tuesday. In doing so, Gold price replicates the recovery moves seen in Monday’s trading, which eventually fizzled out on a broad US Dollar (USD) comeback in tandem with US Treasury bond yields.  

Gold price looks to extend range play amid light trading

The further upside in Gold price could remain limited as the Greenback stays supported by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt at its December policy meeting. Expectations of higher-for-longer US interest rates continue to underpin the US Treasury bond yields and the USD, rendering negative for the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

The US central bank lowered policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% range last week, as widely expected. However, the Fed’s Statement of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called Dot Plot, predicted two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025. That is half a percentage point less in policy easing next year than officials anticipated as of September. Rising inflation expectations on the back of US President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist policies call for higher interest rates.

Additionally, markets prefer to hold the US currency in a Christmas holiday-curtailed week, where trading volumes will likely thin out heading into the New Year festive season. Thin market conditions could exaggerate moves across the financial markets, with investors seeking safety in the Greenback.

Therefore, the Gold price remains a good selling opportunity on recovery attempts going forward, barring the unexpected flaring up of any conflicts in the Middle East or between Russia and Ukraine. Gold traders will remain at the mercy of the market sentiment and the US Dollar dynamics, refraining from placing any fresh directional bets on the bright metal.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, Gold price remains more or less the same from a short-term perspective so long as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below the 50 level.

Currently, Gold’s price defends the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2,611 while it continues to face sellers at the 21-day SMA of $2,642.  

Acceptance above the 21-day SMA is needed to negate the bearish momentum, which will call for a test of the 50-day SMA at $2,668.

Further up, the $2,700 mark will come into play.

If Gold buyers give up, a sustained break below the 100-day SMA resistance-turned-support at $2,611 will put the monthly low of $2,583 to the test.

The next relevant supports are November 15 and 14 lows at $2,555 and $2,537, respectively, could come into play.

• Silver price gains ground as trading activity remains subdued before the Christmas holiday.
• The non-yielding Silver may struggle as traders factor in only two rate cuts next year.
• Concerns about potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration have heightened fears of weakened industrial demand for Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the third consecutive session, trading around $29.70 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Prices of precious metals like Silver are supported probably due to thin trading activity before the Christmas holiday. Additionally, soft US PCE data have tempered inflation concerns, presenting a mixed outlook for the economy, which benefits non-yielding assets like Silver.

However, Silver prices may receive downward pressure as traders continue to assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) outlook for 2025, factoring in only two rate cuts in 2025 after Fed policymakers signaled fewer interest rate cuts next year due to a slowdown in the disinflation process.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now anticipate a nearly 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January, maintaining the current range of 4.25%–4.50%.

Potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration have intensified fears of weak demand for Silver as an industrial input, causing the metal to underperform in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies after taking office led him to revise his projection for 2025. While he had previously anticipated a 100-basis-point (bps) interest rate reduction, he now expects fewer cuts.

Additionally, Silver prices are facing pressure from a constrained industrial outlook, driven by overcapacity in China’s solar panel industry. This has led photovoltaic companies to participate in a government-led self-discipline program to regulate supply. Pressure on Silver prices was also noted due to concerns over a potential Yuan devaluation, in line with China’s looser monetary policy stance.

Coffee price world single maintain stability

Robusta coffee prices on the London floor, updated at 15:30 p.m. on December 22, 2024, remained stable compared to yesterday, fluctuating between 4849 and 5011 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery term January 2025 is 5011 USD/ton; the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 5002 USD/ton; the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 4934 USD/ton and the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 4849 USD/ton.

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor also remained stable at 302.75 – 325.00 cents/lb. Specifically, the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 325.00 cents/lb; the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 319.30 cents/lb; the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 311.65 cents/lb and the monthly delivery term September 2025 is 302.75 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices were updated at 15:30 on December 22, 2024 as follows: Monthly delivery term December 2024 is not traded; monthly delivery term March 2025 is 406.45 USD/ton; monthly delivery term May 2025 is 398.10 USD/ton; monthly delivery term July 2025 is 387.85 USD/ton.

Domestic coffee prices stagnate

According to information from Giacaphe.com, updated coffee prices at 15:30 p.m. today December 22, 2024, the average domestic coffee price is at 121.100 VND/kg.

The highest coffee purchase price in key regions of the Central Highlands is still recorded at 121.300 VND/kg. Specifically, today’s coffee price at Dak Lak at 121.000 VND/kg, coffee price at Lam Dong has a price of 120.500 VND/kg. Meanwhile, the price of coffee at Gia Lai Today the price is 121.000 VND/kg. Coffee price at Dak Nong Today price is 121.300 VND/kg.

Coffee garden laden with fruit in Lien Hiep commune, Duc Trong district, Lam Dong province. Photo: Le Son

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for farmers and coffee purchasing businesses.

Coffee price prediction tomorrow December 23, 2024

Domestic coffee prices on December 22, 2024 fluctuated from 120.500 – 121.300 VND/kg, down 3.000 – 4.000 VND/kg compared to last week. In the world market, robusta coffee prices continued to decrease, while arabica tended to increase slightly.

Weather forecasts in major coffee growing regions such as the Central Highlands (Vietnam) and Minas Gerais, São Paulo (Brazil) show heavy rains, which could affect coffee harvest and quality.

In addition, the strong increase in domestic coffee consumption, forecast to reach 270.000 – 300.000 tons, combined with low production output, may affect export supply. However, according to forecasts, coffee prices may increase again in the near future.

Combining the above factors, it is forecasted that coffee prices on December 23, 2024 may increase slightly, but will still be affected by market fluctuations and weather conditions.

• Gold price holds steady near $2,610 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
• The stronger Greenback and high bond yields could drag the Gold price lower. 
• Safe-haven flow and the world’s central banks demand might cap the downside for yellow metal. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades flat around $2,610 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Markets face a relatively quiet trading session ahead of the holiday trading week. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December is due later on Tuesday. 

The firmer US Dollar (USD) could weigh on the yellow metal as it makes commodities priced in the currency more expensive for most buyers. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD’s value relative to its most significant trading partners’ currencies, edges higher to the 108.00 handle amid the cautious mood. 

“The market continues to digest the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last week. A shallower rate path for 2025 is now getting factored in, probably a pause in January, maybe March as well,” noted Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

On the other hand, safe-haven demand and buying by the world’s central banks could underpin the precious metal. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central bank demand increased significantly, highlighting the metal’s continued position as a safe-haven asset. Central banks have been net purchasers of gold for over 15 years.

Short-term Outlook Falters

Note that for the most part trading today in natural gas has stayed above prior resistance at 3.64. That was the 2023 high and top of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Therefore, it potentially was an impactful breakout that should eventually see a continuation to the upside. However, in the short term the possibility of a pullback exists and improves on a daily close below 3.64. The target zone that was breached today consisted of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 3.85 and the 127.2% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern (orange) at 3.87.

False Channel Breakout

It is not just the bearish reaction to the target zone, however that is a cause for concern, resistance was also seen around the top channel line of a rising trend channel. Notice that on Friday natural gas touched the line specifically as resistance as the high of the day at 3.83 was at the line. Arguably, the top channel line could be moved a little higher and touch the November swing high rather than the October swing high. In that case, the argument for short-term resistance is amplified.

Watch Price Action Around 3.56 and 3.0

A correction, if it were to occur, could take the form of relatively sideways consolidation or a deeper pullback. The rise above the top of the channel is an indication that prices may be getting too far from the mean and due for a pullback and realignment. Other price levels to watch besides the 3.64 high include the most recent trend high at 3.56 and the 20-Day MA trend indicator at 3.32. If a rally above today’s high occurs before a correction, then the next upside target is 4.06.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Diễn biến thị trường cà phê world

Tuần qua, trên thị trường thế giới, giá cà phê Robusta và Arabica có đã trải qua những biến động đáng kể. Giá cà phê Robusta kỳ hạn giao tháng January 2025 trên sàn London giảm 98 USD/tấn, trong khi giá cà phê Arabica kỳ hạn giao tháng March 2025 trên sàn New York tăng 5,5 cent/lb.

Nguyên nhân chính dẫn đến sự biến động này là do ảnh hưởng của việc Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ (Fed) hạ lãi suất, tác động đến tỷ giá hối đoái và thị trường hàng hóa. Đồng USD tăng giảm liên tục, cùng với việc đồng Real của Brazil suy yếu, khuyến khích các nhà sản xuất tại Brazil đẩy mạnh xuất khẩu, làm tăng nguồn cung trên thị trường.

Thị trường cà phê trong nước tiếp tục giảm nhẹ

Tại Việt Nam, mưa nhiều tại khu vực Tây Nguyên thời gian qua đã ảnh hưởng đến tiến độ thu hoạch cà phê, gây lo ngại về sản lượng và chất lượng. Hiện tại, vụ thu hoạch cà phê đã hoàn thành được khoảng 40-50%. Dự báo sản lượng cà phê của Việt Nam trong niên vụ này có thể đạt khoảng 1,6 triệu tấn, trong khi tiêu thụ nội địa dự kiến từ 270.000 đến 300.000 tấn.

Cà phê luôn đảm bảo chất lượng khi người dân thu hoạch 100% cà phê chín. Ảnh: Hiền Mai

Theo thông tin từ Giacaphe.com, cập nhật giá cà phê lúc 15 giờ 30 phút hôm nay ngày December 23, 2024, giá cà phê trong nước trung bình ở mức 120.600 đồng/kg, giảm -500 đồng/kg so với ngày hôm qua.

The highest coffee purchase price in key regions of the Central Highlands was recorded at 121.000 VND/kg. Specifically, today’s coffee price at Dak Lak is 120.500 VND/kg, down -500 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Coffee price at Lam Dong has a price of 120.000 VND/kg, down -500 VND/kg. Meanwhile, coffee prices at Gia Lai hôm nay có mức giá 120.300 đồng/kg, giảm -700 đồng/kg và giá cà phê tại Dak Nong Today’s price is 121.000 VND/kg, also down -300 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for farmers and coffee purchasing businesses.

Nhận định giá cà phê ngày mai 24/ 12 / 2024

Trong tuần qua, giá cà phê trong nước cũng đã trải qua biến động khôngnhỏ, với mức giảm từ 3.000 – 4.000 đồng/kg. Hiện tại, giá cà phê dao động trong khoảng 120.500 – 121.000 đồng/kg.

Theo thống kê từ Hiệp hội cà phê ca cao Việt Nam (VICOFA), trong nửa đầu tháng December 2024, các doanh nghiệp xuất khẩu được 48.371 tấn cà phê, kim ngạch xuất khẩu gần 264 triệu USD, giảm 51,5% về lượng và giảm 6,5% về giá trị so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Lũy kế đến December 15, 2024, Việt Nam xuất khẩu trên 1,26 triệu tấn cà phê, kim ngạch xuất khẩu gần 5,2 tỷ USD, giảm 16,5% về lượng nhưng tăng 32,4% về giá trị so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

Với những yếu tố trên, giới chuyên gia dự báo giá cà phê trong nước ngày December 24, 2024 sẽ duy trì ổn định trong khoảng 120.500 – 121.500 đồng/kg, chưa có dấu hiệu tăng hoặc giảm đột biến. Tuy nhiên, thị trường cà phê luôn chịu ảnh hưởng từ nhiều yếu tố kinh tế và thời tiết, do đó, người trồng và kinh doanh cà phê nên theo dõi sát sao các diễn biến để có những quyết định kịp thời và phù hợp.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,612.01

• Disappointing United States data further undermined the market’s mood.
• Financial markets move in slow motion ahead of the Christmas holidays.
• XAU/USD is poised to extend its slide below $2,600 amid renewed USD demand.

Spot Gold trades with a soft tone on Monday, although it’s holding above $2,600 a troy ounce. The bright metal peaked early in Asia at $2,633.14 amid the broad US Dollar’s weakness, later easing on a souring mood backing demand for the American currency. Action, however, remains limited as investors gear up for the winter holidays. Most major markets will be closed in the upcoming days amid the Christmas celebration.

The poor performance of Wall Street is adding to the US Dollar’s strength. Following some solid advances on Friday, the three major United States (US) indexes trade with a soft tone, with only the Nasdaq Composite posting a modest advance. An uptick in government bond yields further supports the Greenback. The 10-year Treasury note currently yields 4.56%, up roughly 4 basis points (bps).

Meanwhile, the US anticipated some macroeconomic releases scheduled for Tuesday as President Joe Biden issued an executive order closing the federal government on December 24. Durable Goods Orders fell 1.1% in November, worse than the 0.4% decline expected. Additionally, CB Consumer Confidence edged sharply lower in December, falling to 104.7 from 112.8 in November and missing the expected 112.9.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD could extend its slide in the upcoming sessions. The daily chart shows that it is pressuring its low and a bullish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA), trading around the latter for the first time since last February. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, have lost its directional strength above the current level, suggesting selling pressure remains. Finally, technical indicators head south within negative levels, although without a strong momentum. The pair may extend its slump should the near-term slide extend below $2,600.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD has fallen below the 100 and 200 SMAs while it is currently battling around a bearish 20 SMA. At the same time, technical indicators are piercing their midlines with firmly downward slopes, albeit still near neutral levels.  

Support levels: 2,604.20 2,591.70 2,582.90  

Resistance levels: 2,617.55 2,632.00 2,645.20

• Silver price recovers further to near $29.90 even though US bond yields rise as Fed officials support fewer interest rate cuts in 2025.
• Soft monthly US PCE inflation raised uncertainty over the Fed’s shallow rate-cut path.
• Silver price is expected to struggle in an attempt to extend the upward-sloping trendline above $30.00.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends Friday’s recovery move to near $29.90 in Monday’s European session. The white metal rebounded strongly on Friday from a more than three-month low of $28.75 after the release of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for November, which showed that price pressures grew at a slower pace than expectations.

Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, rose steadily by 2.8% but slower than estimates of 2.9%. The month-on-month headline and core PCE inflation grew marginally by 0.1%, raising uncertainty over whether the Fed will follow a shallow rate-cut path in 2025, as projected in the Fed’s dot plot from the December policy meeting.

The recent Fed dot plot showed that officials collectively see Federal Fund rates heading to 3.9% by the end of 2025.

Silver prices advanced on Monday even though US Treasury yields remain higher as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers support fewer interest rate cuts next year. 10-year US Treasury yields moved higher to near 4.54%. Generally, higher yields on interest-bearing assets weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver, as they result in higher opportunity costs for them. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticked higher to near 108.00.

On Friday, a string of Fed officials backed a shallow policy-easing approach amid a slowdown in the disinflation trend, better labor market conditions than previously anticipated, and uncertainty over President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming policies.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price recovers to test the breakdown of the upward-sloping trendline near $30.00, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe. The white metal wobbles around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that the longer-term outlook is uncertain.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if it fails to break above that level.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $30.90 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

• Gold trades flat around $2,625 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• More cautious approach to monetary easing next year from the Fed drags the Gold price lower. 
• Softer US PCE inflation data, the upturn in China’s Gold demand and geopolitical risks might the downside for XAU/USD.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds steady near $2,625 during the early Asian session on Monday. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) might weigh on the yellow metal. However, the softer Greenback after the weaker inflation report could cap its downside.

The Fed lowered interest rates in the December meeting as expected but signaled that it will slow the pace at which borrowing costs fall any further. The Fed’s dot plot, a chart that projects the future path of interest rates, indicated a half-percentage point rate cut in 2025, compared with a full percentage cut projected in September. This, in turn, continues to lift the US Dollar (USD) and undermine the USD-denominated Gold as higher real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of gold. 

On the other hand, softer-than-expected US inflation data could help limit the precious metal’s losses. The US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose to 2.4% YoY in November from 2.3% in October. The reading came in below the market consensus of 2.5%. Meanwhile, the Core PCE jumped 2.8% in November, compared to 2.8% In the previous reading, but below the 2.9% expected.

The upturn in Gold demand in China might contribute to the yellow metal’s upside as China is the world’s largest Gold consumer nation. With less than 6 weeks until Chinese New Year, the world’s heaviest gold-buying festival overtakes Diwali in India. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price.