XAU/USD Current price: $2,681.86

• Dismal United States data fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will trim rates in 2025.
• The European Central Bank cut benchmark rates by 25 bps each, as expected.
• XAU/USD turned bearish in the near term after breaking below $2,700.

Spot Gold came under selling pressure on Thursday, trading around $2,680 a troy ounce. The US Dollar (USD) gathered momentum early in the American session following the release of dismal United States (US) data.

The country reported that  Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended December 6 increased to 242K, worse than the 220K expected and above the previous 225K. Additionally, the November Producer Price Index (PPI) came in higher than anticipated, rising 3.4% on a yearly basis against the expected 3.2% and the previous 3.1%. The news pushed speculative interest into further betting on Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts through 2025.

Wall Street started the day with modest optimism but finally gave up. The three major indexes trade in the red, reflecting the poor sentiment. For a change, however, the USD has gathered more attention than gold as a safe haven.

Market players are now heading into a more quiet day, as the macroeconomic calendar has nothing relevant to offer on Friday. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) will announce their decisions on monetary policy next week. Most rate decisions are widely anticipated, with the focus on what 2025 may bring to monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the XAU/USD pair is at risk of extending its slide, albeit far from bearish. The daily chart shows that the pair keeps developing above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its upward slope below the current level and above also bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. However, technical indicators have turned south, with the Momentum heading firmly south below its 100 level and the RSI also pointing lower, albeit at around 54.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is currently developing below its 20 SMA, which anyway remains above directionless longer ones. The corrective decline could continue, given that technical indicators head firmly lower, although considering the Momentum indicator remains above its 100 line.

Support levels: 2,676.30 2,662.50 2,650.40  

Resistance levels: 2,693.70 2,704.35 2,722.60

• Silver price falls back to near $31.50 after posting a fresh two-week high around $32.20.
• Chinese officials proposed to increase the issuance of bonds to boost infrastructure investment.
• The US producer inflation grew at a faster-than-expected pace in November.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gives up its entire gains and declines to near $31.50 in the North American session on Thursday. The white metal declines after posting a fresh two-week high around $32.20. The asset faces pressure after the conclusion of China’s two-day economic work conference. a high-level meeting that sets economic priorities for next year.

Top leaders of China didn’t provide specific details on the likely size of the stimulus package and the pace of monetary policy easing. However, officials said that they will increase the issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds and local government special notes next year, which are important sources for infrastructure investment and other public spending, Bloomberg reported.

Investors await more details on the stimulus package to forecast the demand for Silver, given its application in various industries such as solar panels and mining, etc.

Meanwhile, hotter-than-expected United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for November has also weighed on the Silver price. As measured by the PPI, annual headline and core producer inflation accelerated to 3% and 3.4%, respectively. The impact of the hit US PPI data appears to be negligible on Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate projections for the policy meeting on December 18 but could boost expectations that the central bank will pause the policy-easing spell in January.

After the US PPI data release, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered intraday losses and rises to near 106.80 and weighed on the Silver price.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price retreats after failing to revisit the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50. The near-term appeal of the Silver price remains firm until it stays above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $31.25.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches 60.00. A bullish momentum would trigger a decisive break above the same.

Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline is around $29.50, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe

Silver daily chart

• Silver attracts some buyers on Thursday and remains closer to over a one-month top.
• The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports prospects for additional gains.
• Any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited. 

Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive bias above the $32.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday and remains close to over a one-month high touched earlier this week. Moreover, the technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the white metal remains to the upside. 

This week’s sustained move beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the recent move-up witnessed over the past two weeks or so has been along an upward-sloping channel. Apart from this, positive technical indicators on daily/hourly charts validate the near-term positive outlook for the XAU/USD and support prospects for additional gains.

Hence, a subsequent move up towards retesting the monthly swing high, around the $32.55-$32.60 area, which now coincides with the top boundary of the aforementioned channel, looks like a distinct possibility. Some follow-through buying will confirm a fresh breakout and lift the XAG/USD to the next relevant hurdle near the $32.80-$32.85 region en route to the $33.00 round figure mark and the $33.20-$33.25 horizontal resistance.

On the flip side, weakness below the $32.00-$31.90 area now seems to find some support near the $31.60 horizontal zone ahead of the $31.45-$31.40 confluence. The latter comprises the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the ascending channel support, which if broken decisively might prompt aggressive selling and shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then drop to sub-$31.00 levels en route to mid-$30.00s.

Silver 4-hour chart

• Silver price soars above $31.50 on firm Fed dovish bets.
• A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could weigh on safe-haven demand.
• Investors await the annual China Central Economic Work Conference.

Silver price (XAG/USD) surges above $31.50 at the start of the week. The white metal strengthens as financial market participants become increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% in the policy meeting on December 18.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50% on December 18 has increased to 87% from 62% a week ago. A scenario that historically weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields but is favorable for non-yielding assets, such as Silver, given that lower yields result in lower opportunity cost for holding an investment in them.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, retreats after failing to sustain above the key figure of 106.00. 10-year US Treasury yields tick higher to near 4.16%.

Meanwhile, fresh attempts at a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by US President-elect Donald Trump could weigh on the safe-haven demand for Silver. “Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness,” Trump wrote on a social media platform. The safe-haven demand for precious metals increases in a heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

This week, investors will focus on the closed-door annual central economic work conference to be held on Dec 11-12, according to Bloomberg. The committee is expected to set priorities for the following year along with scrutinizing current economic performance. The outcome will influence the Silver price, given the application of Silver as a metal in diversified industries.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price rallies to near $31.60 after breaking above the three-day resistance of $31.30. The asset climbs above the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $31.10 and $31.20, respectively, suggesting a strong uptrend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches 60.00. A bullish momentum would trigger a decisive break above the same.

Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline around $29.50, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe, would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

XAU/USD Current price: $2,716.87

• The Bank of Canada trimmed rates by 50 bps, the European Central Bank is next.
• United States inflation rose at the anticipated pace in November.
• XAU/USD bullish momentum set to continue toward record highs in the $2,790 region.

Gold is among the best performers against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, changing hands at around $2.712 a troy ounce in the American session. The Greenback seesawed between gains and losses throughout the day but ended up firming up against most major rivals, but the bright metal and the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the latter firmer amid the Bank of Canada (BoC) decision to trim interest rates by 50 basis points (bps).

 BoC Governor Tiff Macklem spoke after the announcement and said: “We anticipate a more gradual approach to monetary policy if the economy evolves broadly as expected.” He added that monetary policy no longer needs to be in restrictive territory, anticipating a more gradual approach to monetary policy if the economy evolves broadly as expected.

Meanwhile, the United States (US) published an update on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index rose by 2.7% on a yearly basis in November. Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.3%, while the annual core reading printed at 3.3%. The readings were in line with the market’s estimates, pushing the US Dollar temporarily, as investors lifted bets the Federal Reserve (Fed) will trim the main benchmark interest rate by 25 bps when it meets next week.

Coming up next is the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled to deliver its decision on monetary policy on Thursday. Also, Australia will release its monthly employment report in the upcoming Asian session.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is on its way to retest the record high at around $2,790. In the daily chart, the pair extends its advance above a now bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward strength below the longer ones. At the same time, technical indicators advance within positive levels, albeit with uneven momentum, still supporting another leg north.

In the near term, the risk skews to the upside. Technical readings in the 4-hour chart show the pair reached overbought conditions, but there are no solid signs of an upcoming corrective decline. The Momentum indicator consolidates well above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads north at around 72. Finally, the pair develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA crossing above the 200 SMA, usually a sign of additional gains ahead.

 Support levels: 2,704.25 2,689.80 2,672.35

Resistance levels: 2,722.60 2,735.90 2,751.00

Looks to be Heading Towards 3.56

Nonetheless, today’s price action leaves natural gas wide open for a test of resistance around the recent swing high of 3.56, and a likely rally above it. If that high is exceeded the next likely target is the 2023 high of 3.64. That high begins the top trendlines marking the boundary of a large symmetrical triangle pattern.

It is important to note that the extended target for a rising ABCD pattern (purple) completes there as well at 3.67. Further up is the completion of an extended rising ABCD target at 3.87. A key point to consider is that a breakout above 3.64 will further confirm a bullish reversal of trend that is still making progress.

Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Proceeds

Price action following the breakout of a triangle pattern on November 20 has been a textbook example of bullish behavior so far. Once the breakout triggered the first two initial targets from prior swing highs were exceeded. Subsequently, after the high of 3.56 was reached a two-week correction began before finding support around the initial triangle breakout area of 3.02 last week.

Bullish Above 20-Day MA

Regardless of the potential for upside follow-through, a drop below today’s support at 3.18 would be short-term bearish. The 20-Day MA is a little lower at 3.14. The expectation is for natural gas to continue higher from here but that may begin to change if the 20-Day line fails to retain support. After today, the internal uptrend line on the chart will be adjusted down to connect with last week’s low.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price bounced back toward Monday’s monthly high of $32.28.
• Precious metals, including silver, gained support on news of potential economic stimulus measures from China.
• Non-yielding assets like Silver receive support from the rising likelihood of the Fed’s rate cut again in December.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around $32.00 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The demand outlook for precious metals, including Silver, in the world’s largest consumer of raw materials has been increased following news of potential economic stimulus from China.

The Politburo announced plans to adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy and a “more proactive” approach to fiscal stimulus next year, marking a departure from the more cautious tone of the past decade.

Silver prices receive support from increased odds of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates again in December. Markets are now pricing in nearly an 85.8% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

However, the upside of the Silver price could be restrained due to the stronger US Dollar (USD), which makes dollar-denominated Silver less affordable for buyers with foreign currencies, dampening its demand.

The US Dollar gains ground as traders adopt caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released on Wednesday. The US CPI inflation is estimated to rise to 2.7% YoY in November from 2.6% in October. Meanwhile, the core CPI, excluding Food & Energy, is expected to increase 3.3% YoY. Any indications of stalled progress could significantly diminish the likelihood of a Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for crude oil prices for the year 2025 in a report released on Tuesday. The U.S. energy sector anticipates that oil prices—both Brent and West Texas Intermediate—will face downward pressure, primarily due to a buildup of inventories in the second half of next year.

As a result, according to the new forecasts, the average price of Brent crude is expected to be $73.58 per barrel in 2025, down 3.26% from the previous forecast of $76.06.

Additionally, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude is projected to be $69.12 per barrel in 2025, decreasing 3.46% from last month’s estimate of $71.60.

Furthermore, global crude oil production is expected to reach an average of 77.81 million barrels per day next year, with OPEC+ contributing 35.87 million barrels, the United States producing 13.52 million barrels, and non-OPEC+ countries (excluding the United States) contributing the remaining 28.41 million barrels.

Roasted Coffee Market Size in Kenya

The Kenyan roasted coffee market declined modestly to $X in 2023, dropping by X% against the previous year. Overall, the total consumption indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption increased by X% against 2021 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X, and then shrank in the following year.

Roasted Coffee Production in Kenya

In value terms, roasted coffee production amounted to $X in 2023 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by X% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Roasted Coffee Exports

Exports from Kenya

Roasted coffee exports from Kenya soared to X tons in 2023, rising by X% on 2022. Over the period under review, exports posted a significant increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by X%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2023 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, roasted coffee exports surged to $X in 2023. Overall, exports showed significant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when exports increased by X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2023 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

Denmark (X tons) was the main destination for roasted coffee exports from Kenya, accounting for a X% share of total exports. Moreover, roasted coffee exports to Denmark exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Finland (X tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the Netherlands (X tons), with an X% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Denmark totaled X%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Finland (X% per year) and the Netherlands (X% per year).

In value terms, Denmark ($X) remains the key foreign market for roasted coffee exports from Kenya, comprising X% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Finland ($X), with a X% share of total exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a X% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value to Denmark stood at X%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Finland (X% per year) and the Netherlands (X% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2023, the average roasted coffee export price amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, continues to indicate a noticeable curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Saudi Arabia ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to the United States ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Saudi Arabia (X%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Roasted Coffee Imports

Imports into Kenya

After two years of growth, supplies from abroad of roasted coffee decreased by X% to X tons in 2023. Overall, imports, however, enjoyed resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, roasted coffee imports shrank sharply to $X in 2023. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a resilient expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of X%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

Italy (X tons), Uganda (X tons) and Portugal (X tons) were the main suppliers of roasted coffee imports to Kenya, together accounting for X% of total imports. Ethiopia, Germany and Switzerland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Germany (with a CAGR of X%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest roasted coffee suppliers to Kenya were Portugal ($X), Uganda ($X) and Italy ($X), with a combined X% share of total imports. Switzerland, Ethiopia and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X%.

In terms of the main suppliers, Germany, with a CAGR of X%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2023, the average roasted coffee import price amounted to $X per ton, declining by X% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a pronounced decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when the average import price increased by X%. The import price peaked at $X per ton in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($X per ton), while the price for Italy ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Portugal (X%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) :

• Gold price sits at two-week highs near $2,700 early Wednesday, awaiting US CPI data.       
• Chinese central bank buying and Middle East tensions bolster the Gold price upswing.
• Gold price finds acceptance above 50-day SMA amid a bullish RSI on the daily chart.

Gold’s price is on a solid recovery, flirting with two-week highs just above $2,700 early Wednesday. However, the further upside in gold price hinges on the release of the US  Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will likely set the pace for the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) early next year.

Gold price stays firm as US CPI report looms

Heading into the US CPI showdown, markets are pricing in an 86% chance that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the odds for another quarter percentage point rate reduction in January stand at 22%.

Amidst looming tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump and loosening labor market conditions, the US inflation report will be critical to determining the Fed’s easing trajectory in the coming months. This will impact the value of the US Dollar (USD) and the non-yielding Gold price.

US CPI is seen rising 2.7% year-on-year (YoY) in November after reporting a 2.6% growth in October. The core annual inflation will likely remain at 3.3% in the same period. On a monthly basis, US CPI and core CPI are expected to have increased by 0.3% last month.

Gold  price has witnessed an impressive recovery from eight-day lows so far this week, sitting at the highest level since November 25. This is courtesy of the ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and the resumption of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) buying gold reserves.

 The Chinese central bank on Saturday said it bought 160,000 fine troy ounces in November, ending a six-month pause in purchases. Meanwhile, the sudden collapse of the Syrian government over the weekend rattled markets, with investors scurrying for safety in the traditional store of value Gold price.

According to the latest developments, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)  carried out attacks on Syria’s naval fleet as part of its efforts to neutralise military assets in the country after the fall of the Assad regime, per BBC News.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the Gold price broke the consolidative phase to the upside after recapturing the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,670 on a daily closing basis on Tuesday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the midline, suggesting that more gains remain in the offing.  

A softer-than-expected US CPI inflation data could reinforce Fed rate cut expectations in the coming months, driving Gold price toward the November 25  high of $2,721.

The next bullish target is $2,750, the confluence of the psychological barrier and the November 5 high.

Fresh buying opportunities will likely emerge on a sustained move above the latter, calling for a test of the record high of $2,790.

In case the inflation data surprises to the upside, Gold price could face fresh headwinds, with sellers likely to test the 50-day SMA resistance-turned-support at $2,670.

The next relevant downside cap is seen at the 21-day SMA at $2,638, below which the previous week’s low of $2,613 will be challenged.