• Gold price sits at two-week highs near $2,700 early Wednesday, awaiting US CPI data.       
• Chinese central bank buying and Middle East tensions bolster the Gold price upswing.
• Gold price finds acceptance above 50-day SMA amid a bullish RSI on the daily chart.

Gold’s price is on a solid recovery, flirting with two-week highs just above $2,700 early Wednesday. However, the further upside in gold price hinges on the release of the US  Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will likely set the pace for the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) early next year.

Gold price stays firm as US CPI report looms

Heading into the US CPI showdown, markets are pricing in an 86% chance that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the odds for another quarter percentage point rate reduction in January stand at 22%.

Amidst looming tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump and loosening labor market conditions, the US inflation report will be critical to determining the Fed’s easing trajectory in the coming months. This will impact the value of the US Dollar (USD) and the non-yielding Gold price.

US CPI is seen rising 2.7% year-on-year (YoY) in November after reporting a 2.6% growth in October. The core annual inflation will likely remain at 3.3% in the same period. On a monthly basis, US CPI and core CPI are expected to have increased by 0.3% last month.

Gold  price has witnessed an impressive recovery from eight-day lows so far this week, sitting at the highest level since November 25. This is courtesy of the ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and the resumption of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) buying gold reserves.

 The Chinese central bank on Saturday said it bought 160,000 fine troy ounces in November, ending a six-month pause in purchases. Meanwhile, the sudden collapse of the Syrian government over the weekend rattled markets, with investors scurrying for safety in the traditional store of value Gold price.

According to the latest developments, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)  carried out attacks on Syria’s naval fleet as part of its efforts to neutralise military assets in the country after the fall of the Assad regime, per BBC News.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the Gold price broke the consolidative phase to the upside after recapturing the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,670 on a daily closing basis on Tuesday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the midline, suggesting that more gains remain in the offing.  

A softer-than-expected US CPI inflation data could reinforce Fed rate cut expectations in the coming months, driving Gold price toward the November 25  high of $2,721.

The next bullish target is $2,750, the confluence of the psychological barrier and the November 5 high.

Fresh buying opportunities will likely emerge on a sustained move above the latter, calling for a test of the record high of $2,790.

In case the inflation data surprises to the upside, Gold price could face fresh headwinds, with sellers likely to test the 50-day SMA resistance-turned-support at $2,670.

The next relevant downside cap is seen at the 21-day SMA at $2,638, below which the previous week’s low of $2,613 will be challenged.

In this article 10 market predictions for 2025 we focus on 10 markets that we predict to develop a bullish trend in 2025. We cover stocks, obviously precious metals and a few select commodities.

Additionally, we indicate that the most intense periods of 2025 will be:

• February till mid-March 2025.
• Mid-March till early May 2025.
• Mid-May till mid-June 2025.

We expect strong moves to develop in those 3 to 6 weeks periods.

Note – We exclude crypto from this article. While very bullish crypto, it is a separate asset class, not in scope of this article.

1. Epic sector rotation set to dominate 2025

Sector rotation has been the dominant trend in markets since the turning point October 13th, 2022.

Trends have been developing in specific sectors, mostly short-lived, with trend continuation after a few months.

This dominant market trend is set to continue to dominate markets in 2025.

• Intermarket analysis and sector reviews will remain a success factor in 2025.
• It might not feel like a bull market in 2025 – it will be a bull market looking at the data though.

Investing strategies should factor in sector rotation.

2. Dow Jones predicted to rise in 2025

Source: Dow Jones Forecast For 2025.

The Dow Jones is predicted to be directionally bullish.

Our Dow Jones forecast 2025 is a trading range between 38,000 and 44,000.

Large caps will benefit from rising future earnings. Moreover, a gradual decrease in inflation combined with current interest rates benefit large caps.

3. S&P 500 forecast: higher in 2025

Source: S&P 500 Forecast For 2025.

The long term and medium term S&P 500 chart structures show a dominant bullish pattern.

Moreover, future earnings combined with economic data and consumer spending underpin a bullish outlook for the S&P 500.

This justifies a bullish S&P 500 forecast for 2025. That’s why we believe the S&P 500 will move in a range between 5,350 and 6,350 points in 2025.

While the S&P 500 should do well, juicy opportunities should be presented in the mid-cap space which is set to benefit from improving market breadth!

4. Nasdaq to continue its bull run in 2025

Source: Bullish Nasdaq Prediction 2025 & The 20-Year Nasdaq Chart.

The Nasdaq Index has been leading the charge in 2023, until early July 2024. Since then, the Nasdaq has been lagging.

In 2025, the Nasdaq is predicted to continue resuming its leadership position. The Nasdaq bull run is set to continue.

The Nasdaq is forecasted to move to the 22,220 area in 2025, based on its 20-year chart pattern.

The long term Nasdaq charts are absolutely phenomenal, worth checking out by clicking the above mentioned hyperlink.

5. Nikkei 225 predicted to be very volatile in 2025

Source: Japanese Nikkei 225 Index Historic Chart.

The Nikkei 225 is expected to become very volatile, especially in the 2nd half of 2025. This is one of the more unusual forecast among our 10 market predictions for 2025.

The Nikkei 225 historic chart over 50 years shows a giant secular pattern while the 25-year chart highlights a decision time window.

The decision window of the 50-year Nikkei 225 chart is completing in the first months of 2026. This means that 2025 will be a year in which the market will look for resolution of this gigantic pattern.

Our Nikkei 225 prediction is centered around the idea that chart dynamics will dominate in 2025.

6. Gold predicted to exceed $3,000 in 2025

Source: Gold Price Prediction 2025.

Gold is forecasted to move closer to, and even temporarily exceed, 3000 USD an Ounce.

The price of gold might approach $3,000 in 2025 and exceed $3,000 in 2026. Eventually, gold could approach $5,000 by 2030.

The gold prediction suggests that dominant dynamics in the gold market will be monetary easing, a weak USD, gold secular chart dynamics. Because of this, the gold price is set to move higher in 2025.

Interestingly, we predict that tokenized gold will do well in 2025.

Tokenization should become a major trend in 2025. If materialized, tis implies that tokenized gold, tokenized silver, tokenized real estate, could become booming business. That’s the basis for a crypto narrative in 2025, as explained in this article: Which Cryptocurrencies Will Be Explosive in 2025?

7. Silver predicted to test former ATH in 2025

Source: Will Silver Hit $50 An Ounce in 2025? and Silver Price Prediction 2025.

2025 will likely be the year in which silver will approach its former ATH.

We explained the drivers for this bullish thesis here: 5 reasons to believe silver is the opportunity of the decade. Moreover, shorter term, we emphasized silver’s massive upside potential, backed up by leading indicator analysis.

Silver can and will hit $50 an Ounce, the only question is WHEN. On September 18th, 2024, silver confirmed its short term breakout which implies that silver is on its way to $50, probably in early to mid-2025.

The price of silver is working its way higher currently, in a structure characterized by several layers of resistance.

So far, silver has shown its ability to penetrate all those layers, one by one, at a slow pace.

This silver trend is set to continue in 2025 is the basis of our bullish silver forecast.

Readers should keep a close eye on the long term oriented posts in the $silver cash tag, filter out short term oriented info though.

8. Sugar predicted to strongly rise in 2025

Source: Sugar Price Forecast 2025.

A rise of 50% in the price of sugar? Is this realistic.

Oh yes, for sure. This is what we wrote in our most recent sugar forecast update:

On September 20th, 2024, sugar confirmed our bullish silver forecast 2025 after it bounced sharply from its critical $18 cents per pound level. A rise in the price of sugar to $36 cents in 2025 is likely.

It’s the sugar chart combined with its fundamentals that paint a bullish picture for sugar in 2025.

9. Coffee predicted to steadily rise in 2025

Source: Coffee Price Prediction 2025.

The price of coffee is expected to steadily rise in 2025.

The most bullish scenario suggests $3.40 per pound which is 37% above current levels.

This bullish outlook is supported by solid coffee fundamentals which has proven to be a very reliable leading indicator and strongly correlated to the price of coffee over the years.

10. Lithium forecast a major bottom in 2025

Source: Lithium – A New Booming Trend As Of 2025?

We predict that the lithium market will start working on a nice long term bottom in 2025.

This should present investors with a long term focus with nice entry opportunities, maybe even ahead of 2025, provided spot lithium does not move lower from here.

The 10 market predictions for 2025, outlined in this article, are available on our blog. They will be updated on a regular basis. We encourage readers to sign up to our premium services, particularly gold & silver as well as our crypto research, for very specific market insights and timely alerts.

• Silver gains 0.19%, stabilizing at $31.89 as traders anticipate key U.S. inflation figures and Fed’s next steps.
• Technical analysis highlights consolidation near the $32 mark, with $31.75 acting as crucial support.
• Potential downside risks include a fall towards the $31.00 area and the 100-day SMA at $30.47 if bearish pressure mounts.

Silver price climbed some 0.19% on Tuesday yet failed to clear the $32.00 hurdle after hitting a three-week high of $32.27 at the beginning of the week. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $31.89 as Wednesday’s Asian Pacific session commences.

Mounting speculation about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week is driving market sentiment. The release of US inflation data on Wednesday is expected to provide clearer insights into the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

After briefly climbing above $32.00, XAG/USD retreated and is now consolidating within the $31.75–$32.00 range, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.75 serving as key support.

The price action suggests the formation of a “double bottom” chart pattern, which remains just short of its minimum target of $33.50. A decisive break above the $32.00 resistance level could strengthen bullish momentum, paving the way toward $33.00 and ultimately the “double bottom” target.

On the other hand, if XAG/USD falls below the 50-day SMA, sellers may gain control, potentially driving prices toward the low $31.00 range. A further decline past this level could bring the 100-day SMA at $30.47 into focus.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

20-Day MA Remains a Short-term Pivot

There are also three recent upswings (red arrow) where crude oil exceeded the 20-Day line. That could still happen with the current attempt to strengthen, but until it does the 20-Day line is a key short-term upside pivot. In other words, the 20-Day line has been reflecting short-term resistance. This is bearish behavior unless there is a decisive and sustained advance above the 20-Day MA pivot, followed by a daily close above it.

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

The bottom boundary line that represents support for a small symmetrical triangle pattern was confirmed again recently as support. The price of crude was rejected to the upside from the line last Friday and again yesterday. This is a notification that the line is valid and may represent support in the future. Although a breakout above the 20-Day line may trigger, crude will remain within the triangle formation until it rises above the top line of the triangle, which is purple.

Bull Wedge Pattern

There is also a recent interim swing high at 70.68 that may provide a more useful pivot, not only because it further confirms the triangle breakout, but it also gives a trend reversal signal. In addition, the 50-Day MA pivot currently marks the same price area. The top line is purple because it also represents a boundary for a possible falling bull wedge pattern. A purple line also marks the lower boundary (green arrows) of the pattern. Therefore, an upside breakout of the top line for the triangle also provides an initial breakout signal for a bull wedge.

Resolution on the Horizon

Volatility could increase soon if the triangle pattern proves valid as the apex is on January 3. This suggests that a spike in volatility, represented by a breakout of the patterns, either up or down, before the end of the year. Let’s see what happens.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,687.35

• Upcoming central banks’ monetary policy decisions keep investors on their toes.
• The United States will publish the November Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD recovered its bullish poise and aims towards $2,700 in the near term.

Spot Gold maintains its bullish route on Tuesday, extending gains beyond the $2,680 threshold on the back of a dismal market mood. The US Dollar (USD) suffered some modest losses throughout the first half of the day, but demand for safety accelerated in the American session, benefiting the Greenback against high-yielding assets yet not against Gold.

The poor performance of European stocks and upcoming first-tier events further pushed speculative interest into adopting a cautious approach. On Wednesday, the United States (US) will release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI), and investors hope they can collect hints on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) may do when it meets next week. The Fed is widely anticipated to trim the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) and inflation needs to be out of the rook to actually force them to proceed with a more aggressive cut, an unlikely scenario.

But it is not just about the Fed. Almost all major central banks will announce their decisions on monetary policy in the upcoming days. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was the first one early Tuesday, delivering no big surprises as the Board left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% as expected. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will come next, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.

Central banks are struggling to return to normal interest rate levels while keeping inflation tamed and protecting economic growth. Indeed, the latter is out of their mandate, yet policymakers can’t play blind and deaf on soft economic progress and the risks of upcoming recessions. Their decisions will shed some light on what 2025 may bring regarding monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Meanwhile, the XAU/USD pair holds on to early gains and trades near the $2,690 mark. In the daily chart, technical readings favor an upward extension, given that the pair keeps recovering above a now mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs recovered their bullish poise below the shorter one. At the same time, technical indicators gain upward traction within positive levels, reflecting increased buying interest.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk also skews to the upside. XAU/USD is above a flat 200 SMA for the first time in the month, while the 20 and 100 SMA advance below it, converging around $2,650. Finally, technical indicators develop near overbought reading with modest upward strength, but still heading north. Overall, XAU/USD seems poised to extend gains towards its record high in the $2,790 region.

Support levels: 2,676.30 2,662.50 2,650.40 2

Resistance levels: 2,693.70 2,704.35 2,722.60

Another Retest of 20-Day Support

Four out of the past last five days tested support around the 20-Day and each time natural gas fell below the line earlier in the session it traded back above the line by the close. That should be the same situation today. If dynamic support is retained at or above the 20-Day line, natural gas is primed to continue higher. It has been attempting to establish a bottom for the current pullback. But it has not yet made a clear break off that bottom that should engender confidence in the bullish reversal with signs of more aggressive buying.

Weekly Bullish Reversal Triggered

A bullish reversal was triggered yesterday on the weekly chart (not shown). The trigger indicates strengthening in demand for natural gas and it provides another piece of evidence supporting a bullish continuation of the rising trend and the likelihood that the bearish correction may have bottomed out.

The uptrend that begins from the February 2024 trend low triggered a breakout recently on a rally above the 3.02 swing high on November 20. That was concurrent to a symmetrical triangle breakout. Each would be a valid signal on its own but when they occur together the assumption is that upside follow-through should occur with improved momentum.

Bullish Hammer Breakout Above 3.19

After today, strength will be indicated on a rally above today’s high of 3.19 and further still on a move above Monday’s high of 3.32. The internal uptrend that is nearby can be used as a guide as it was previously representing support during the way up. It was specifically tested as resistance last Thursday before the gap up opening on Monday.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price retreats from Monday’s monthly high of $32.28.
• The price of the grey metal found support following news of potential economic stimulus measures from China.
• The stronger US Dollar weighs on demand for dollar-denominated Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats from $32.00 per troy ounce during the European session on Tuesday. However, the price of the grey metal received support from news of potential economic stimulus from China.

Chinese policymakers, through the Politburo, outlined plans for a “moderately loose” monetary policy and a “more proactive” fiscal stimulus for the coming year. This marks a shift from the cautious approach of the past decade and has boosted the demand outlook for metals in the world’s largest consumer of raw materials.

Chinese President Xi Jinping stated on Tuesday, “China has full confidence in achieving this year’s economic target.” He emphasized that China will continue to serve as the largest engine of global economic growth and asserted that there would be no winners in tariff wars, trade wars, or tech wars.

Silver prices also benefited from growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again this month. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 89.5% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points on December 18, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

However, the strengthening of the US Dollar (USD) is making dollar-denominated Silver less affordable for buyers with foreign currencies, dampening its demand. Trades adopt caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

Coffee price world

Early in the morning of 28/11 (Vietnam time), on the London floor, the price of Robusta coffee futures for monthly delivery November 2024 was at 5.533 USD/ton, up 358 USD/ton compared to yesterday. The monthly delivery term January 2025 increased 382 USD/ton, trading at 5.496 USD/ton.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor for monthly delivery December 2024 traded at 323 cents/lb, up 15 cents/lb compared to yesterday’s trading level. For monthly delivery March 2025, trading was at 320 cents/lb, up 14 cents/lb.

Coffee prices in the country

Domestic coffee prices today also increased across localities, trading at 123.500 – 124.100 VND/kg.

Specifically, in the province Dak Lak, today’s coffee price is purchased at 124.000 VND/kg, an increase of 2.400 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

At Lam Dong, today’s coffee price was purchased at 123.500 VND/kg, an increase of 2.500 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session.

At Gia Lai, today’s coffee price is trading at 123.900 VND/kg, up 2.600 VND/kg.

Coffee prices in the province Dak Nong Today recorded an increase of 2.100 VND/kg, purchased at 124.100 VND/kg.

Global coffee prices continued their strong upward trend, reflecting deep concerns about future supply. Specifically, Arabica coffee prices increased by 1,33% to a 27-year high, while Robusta prices also increased by 1,27%, approaching the threshold of 5.200 USD/ton.

Rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-growing state, was below historical average last week, adding to supply concerns there. Somar Meteorologia reported just 6 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais last week, or 10% of the historical average.

The low rainfall has raised concerns that coffee plants will not be able to fully recover and develop, leading to a sharp drop in output compared to the current crop. Previously, Brazil’s main coffee growing region experienced a prolonged period of historic drought, causing analysts to simultaneously reduce their forecasts for coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year as well as the 2024-2025 crop year.  

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Brazil office estimates the country’s coffee production for the 2024-2025 crop year at 66,4 million 60-kg bags, down 3,5 million bags from the previous forecast. The total production decline is mainly due to a decline in Arabica coffee as the growing region faces harsh weather conditions during the flowering and bean development stages.

In addition, exports in the 2024-2025 crop year are estimated to decrease by 5% compared to the previous forecast and 2,5 million bags lower than the previous crop year, to 44,25 million bags. At the same time, ending inventories in the 2024-2025 crop year are down 65% compared to the forecast of USDA headquarters, to 1,24 million bags, and ending inventories in the 2023-2024 crop year are also cut from 2,88 million bags to 1,68 million bags. 

Regarding the long-term outlook, consulting firm Hedgepoint in its latest global market report forecasts that Brazil’s coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year will only reach about 65,2 million bags, of which Arabica coffee output is expected to be at 42,6 million bags, down 1,4% compared to the previous crop.

Thanh Lam

• Gold price consolidates the previous rebound above $2,660 early Tuesday.       
• The US Dollar catches fresh haven demand while US Treasury bond yields stall recovery.
• Daily RSI recaptures 50 as Gold price eyes acceptance above 50-day SMA ahead of US CPI.

Gold’s price builds on the previous rebound near $2,670 in Tuesday’s Asian trades even as the US Dollar (USD) sticks to its recovery mode, awaiting US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday for fresh directional impetus.

Gold price capitalizes on geopolitics and China optimism

Gold price takes advantage of a pause in the US Treasury yields upswing and expectations of more stimulus coming from China following weak inflation data on Monday. China’s CPI missed expectations in November, rising by 0.2% year on year (YoY), down from a 0.3% increase in October.

Additionally, rising Middle East geopolitical tensions, in the face of the sudden collapse of the Syrian government over the weekend, keep the haven demand for Gold price alive and kicking. Syrian rebels seized the capital, Damascus, ousting President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia with his family seeking asylum.

According to Bloomberg, the leader of the Syrian rebel group, Mohammed Al Bashir, is set to form a transitional administration to “avoid slipping into chaos”.

On Monday, Gold price staged a decent comeback from eight-day lows of $2,613 as Middle East geopolitical tensions offset the renewed upside in the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields across the curve. US Treasury bond yields rebound was led by the anticipation of stubbornly high US inflation data, which could ramp up expectations for a hawkish interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next week.

Markets see an 86% probability of the Fed lowering rates by 25 basis points (bps) next week. Meanwhile, for the January Fed meeting, the odds for another 25 bps rate cut stand at about 22%, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.

Looking ahead, all eyes remain on Wednesday’s key US inflation test as Gold price could see additional profit-taking following last week’s decline. Traders will likely resort to repositioning in the lead-up to the US CPI showdown.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments will also be closely eyed in the absence of any top-tier US economic data due later this Tuesday.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the tide has turned in favor of the Gold price as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) pierced through the midline for the upside.

Gold price is now attempting to break the recent range to the north, battling with the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,668.

Acceptance above the latter on a daily closing basis is critical for providing extra legs to the ongoing Gold price recovery.

The next relevant resistance levels are seen at the $2,700 round level and the November 25  high of $2,721.

Conversely, the 21-day SMA at $2,633 will offer strong support to buyers in case the upside loses momentum.

The previous week’s low of $2,613 will be next on sellers’ radars, below which the 100-day SMA at $2,588 will be threatened.

• Silver price continues to gain ground due to the prevailing bullish bias.
• The primary barrier appears around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the $32.60 level.
• The nine- and the 14-day EMA at $31.27 and $31.17, respectively, would act as primary supports.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second day, trading around $32.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The daily chart analysis indicates a bullish bias, with the pair moving upwards within an ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, further supporting the bullish sentiment.

The XAG/USD pair continues to trade above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing a bullish outlook and signaling to strengthen short-term price momentum. This points to increasing buying interest and raises the likelihood of further price appreciation.

In terms of the upside, the Silver price finds a primary barrier around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the $32.60 level. A break above this level could reinforce the bullish bias and support the XAG/USD pair to approach its November high at $33.13.

On the downside, the primary support appears at the nine-day EMA at $31.28, followed by the 14-day EMA at $31.17. The lower boundary of the ascending channel at $31.00 level could act as a major support.

A break below the descending channel could weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the price of precious metal to test a “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart